Here are some of the headlines that greeted me today on my portfolio:
Ambassadors Group Inc sets a new 52-week low
Force Protection Inc down 10.18% to $4.50
Oshkosh Truck Corp sets a new 52-week low
Crocs Inc down 10.04% to $33.96
2:43PM Apple shares slide to new session lows, setting up a test of its previously supportive 50day SMA * the 183.50 level (AAPL) 184.02 -10.91
I don't have one stock in the green, but those were the worst today.
I need to get out of the market and just hold cash for a while. Is it best to wait for a bounce on Monday. Otherwise, I'm sure I'll be selling at the very bottom today.
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
You might wait before you realize any loss.It has a been a bad week.The fed has an auction for the reserves of 30bn on the 14th and the 28th. Your stock may get driven back up for a profit. May be wiser to hold for a cpl more weeks unless you need to have cash.JMO MO usually isnt worth 2 cents but.........
Posted by Machiavelli on :
the Jobs report today didn't help either lol
Posted by Ace of Spades on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Here are some of the headlines that greeted me today on my portfolio:
Ambassadors Group Inc sets a new 52-week low
Force Protection Inc down 10.18% to $4.50
Oshkosh Truck Corp sets a new 52-week low
Crocs Inc down 10.04% to $33.96
2:43PM Apple shares slide to new session lows, setting up a test of its previously supportive 50day SMA * the 183.50 level (AAPL) 184.02 -10.91
I don't have one stock in the green, but those were the worst today.
I need to get out of the market and just hold cash for a while. Is it best to wait for a bounce on Monday. Otherwise, I'm sure I'll be selling at the very bottom today.
Well, you finaly picked a no-brainer, sure-thing stock...which is Apple....It's obvious where this is going in the years to come...The others you mentioned shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as APPLE!!!
Good luck in 2008!!!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Yes, I agree that Apple will probably go back up and is probably a sure thing. I included it here because my timing couldn't have been worse. I decided to buy more at $193.50. Why couldn't I have waited two days and get it at $180.00?
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Out of all my losers, I decided to sell yesterday:
CBZ at 9.35 NTRI at $25.29
Guess what today brought?
CBZ up 3% 9.59 (hit $9.63) NTRI up 11% $28.07
And, of course, those I held continued their downward spiral. I can't win.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
That is because you "decided" to sell and didn't let your Stop/losses decide for you or even put any stop/losses Jo... As for me.. I'm still holding CBZ Posted by Jo4321 on :
Yep,you are right about that, I didn't let the stop/loss decide. I did HAVE a stop loss in for $9.00 and later ignored it when the market started tanking. It sure looked like that one was going down below the 50 RSI and I wrongly assumed that I might as well take a loss at $9.35 instead of $9.00.
I still hold some CBZ. So don't get too excited about it. It's the kiss of death.
Jo
Posted by Ace of Spades on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Yep,you are right about that, I didn't let the stop/loss decide. I did HAVE a stop loss in for $9.00 and later ignored it when the market started tanking. It sure looked like that one was going down below the 50 RSI and I wrongly assumed that I might as well take a loss at $9.35 instead of $9.00.
I still hold some CBZ. So don't get too excited about it. It's the kiss of death.
Jo
Jo...when you are decinding to buy or sell your stocks...what are you looking at chart wise??? Like what indicators or time-frames do you use most of the time??? Just curious!!!
Posted by Machiavelli on :
She looks at what I look at... the RSI ... she just sold prematurely... CBZ went slightly below the 50 line but closed above the 40 MA which is Support... She should of let her Stop/loss do the deciding... she let FEAR guide her and it cost her because CBZ bounced back up... her SL is/was a little too low... i have mine at 9.20 for wiggle room but for small loss just in case.. 9.00 is way too low imo... i almost always put my SL's just below the 40 MA...
Posted by Ace of Spades on :
quote:Originally posted by Machiavelli: She looks at what I look at... the RSI ... she just sold prematurely... CBZ went slightly below the 50 line but closed above the 40 MA which is Support... She should of let her Stop/loss do the deciding... she let FEAR guide her and it cost her because CBZ bounced back up... her SL is/was a little too low... i have mine at 9.20 for wiggle room but for small loss just in case.. 9.00 is way too low imo... i almost always put my SL's just below the 40 MA...
Jo is a female ....this makes total sense to the Ace of Spades... LoL. OMG...this is unreal!!! you can totaly tell the sex of a poster by the way they type/communitcate.. .sometimes it's up in the air, but you still have an idea! I don't want to expand any more on this subject/topic...cause I'll come off like an assh##ole...but I promise I'm not......to end positive...Jo is very honest! ....with herself and allstocks.....which is key to sucess
You must have read some of my recent posts Posted by wdcisco on :
"this makes total sense to the Ace of Spades...
Don't go Munchkin on us bro Posted by Jo4321 on :
Ace, you should have also been able to tell I am female by the spelling of my name. If I were male, it would have been JOE. No "e" = Female.
Anyone what to give me their opinion on continuing to hold CROX? Currently it's up 6% so my gut feeling is to just go ahead and get rid of it even though I have a huge loss on it. However, the chart looks like it could be bouncing off the 20 RSI line and perhaps it has some more upside before hitting resistance.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
While I'm at it, what do you think of MEE? It's in a good industry (coal index), MA's lined up, seems to be in an uptrend if it can get back over the 50 RSI.
Another one in the coal index that I'm looking at is NCOC. Much cheaper pps, but just had a big run. Dipping today. Support $4.75?
Jo Edited to add. Not sure about NCOC, not a lot of volume there.
Posted by Ace of Spades on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Ace, you should have also been able to tell I am female by the spelling of my name. If I were male, it would have been JOE. No "e" = Female.
Anyone what to give me their opinion on continuing to hold CROX? Currently it's up 6% so my gut feeling is to just go ahead and get rid of it even though I have a huge loss on it. However, the chart looks like it could be bouncing off the 20 RSI line and perhaps it has some more upside before hitting resistance.
The market looks like it's reversing up now...It should deffinately go higher IMO...MACD crossed on the 60 minute chart today...very bullish short term!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Well, since CROX went up 10% I got out. Guess we'll see if that was another wrong move.
I don't want to really been in that one Thursday.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
quote:The market looks like it's reversing up now...
I guess you meant reversing down.
Well, out of CROX, but now all my others that were doing well are losing their gains...AAPL, OSK, CBZ.
The market is reacting in extreme ways to every little bit of news:
quote: 3:00 pm : Stocks drop in quick fashion after Bloomberg reports that AT&T's (T 39.18, -1.85) CEO said the company is experiencing "softness" in its broadband and phone line businesses. Verizon (VZ 42.16, -0.76) is also under pressure on the news. The telecom sector is now the main laggard, shedding 4.4%.
The major indices hit fresh intraday lows on the news, with the Dow underperforming as both AT&T and Verizon are Dow components.DJ30 -95.03 NASDAQ -15.62 SP500 -7.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1490/1467/1.73 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1221/1891/+1.1 bln
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
Jo,there are losses both perceived and realized. Perceived losses are when the stock goes down in price and realized are when you sell.I would much rather have a perceived loss than to sell and realize it.If you need quick profits to move on to other stocks for a quick gain then it would be fine.But in bad market times it may be more prudent to accept that the price isnt realative to the value for which you bought the stock in the first place.I hold a lot of positions(stocks) but I wont sell until they at least sell where I want them too.A stop loss would be in place if I thought they wouldnt recover to where I bought in at.I bought more of 2 today after they went down more than 20% each.I consider it a better buying opportunity not a bigger loss. I never said I was smart.Just my 2 cents.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
no offense Bottom.. but she knows all that and what you do (Averaging down) is not a winning trading style. Know when to cut your losses and not hold on to losers.
Posted by BooDog on :
Knowing and having the discipline to do it are two different things imo. It's a mad mad mad mad world!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I hear ya!
And, it's always good to be reminded Mach. I like to hear all opinions.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Dang, MEE was $33.23 when I mentioned it about a month ago. Now $40.35.
NCOC up too.
Looks like coal was a good way to go.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Bad timing once again.
Sold off my TTWO shares on FRIDAY
UPDATE 2-Electronic Arts offers $2 billion for Take-Two 5:04 p.m. 02/24/2008 Provided by
By Scott Hillis
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb 24 (Reuters) - U.S. video game publisher Electronic Arts Inc (ERTS) said on Sunday it wants to buy rival Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, best known for its "Grand Theft Auto" title, for about $2.0 billion in cash.
The $26-per-share offer by Electronic Arts, publisher of blockbuster games like "Madden" and "Need for Speed," represents a 50 percent premium to Take Two's (TTWO) Friday closing stock price of $17.36.
Posted by BooDog on :
Looking to get a piece of Visa Inc.? That will be an interesting one. Still haven't found a symbol for them yet.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Visa's symbol is going to be "V"
Posted by BooDog on :
TRY.B, which was trading from $8.96 to about $9.55 just before close today, suddenly jumped up and filled an order I had for $9.90 at about 4:03pm (it was a GTC, but filled after 4pm).
I haven't seen any news that would cause this to spike, but as would typically happen when I finally sell a POS I am holding, it will probably be bought out tommorrow morning. Just giving you all a heads up.
Jo (BTW, $10.27 in A/H now)
Posted by Jo4321 on :
well, that was weird, no news to explain TRY.B's after hours jump. And it traded much lower today. I guess that $9.90 fill was a gift.
Small comfort for me today, a day when every one of my holdings was down, EXCEPT the ONE STOCK I am short in (SWC). What else is new?
Jo
Posted by PCola77 on :
You not playing my form 4's anymore? I made 27% in Feb. Posted by Jo4321 on :
PCola, because I work in the AM, I don't see your picks until later in the afternoon ususally and they've already gone up! But I have been on the lookout for one that I could get in.
Also, I was an idiot, and after taking the 5% in RJF, I rebought it on a "DIP". In turned out not to be a dip, but more of a canyon. I didn't play by the rules.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Here's an interesting fact. My son started playing a "stock market game" at school on the 11th. He is has the #1 portfolio in the region (1 of 87) and the 14th highest out of the whole competition (14 of 4034).
Oddly enough, I helped him with his imaginary picks, but I didn't buy them myself for real. Should have!
They say the apple doesn't fall far from the tree, but in this case, I guess it does.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Oh joy, another to add to my list of losers that I am holding:
quote: SiRF Technology Hldgs Inc sets a new 52-week low 1:32 p.m. 02/29/2008
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321:
Also, I was an idiot, and after taking the 5% in RJF, I rebought it on a "DIP". In turned out not to be a dip, but more of a canyon. I didn't play by the rules.
Jo
Jo, Jo , Jo ::: shakes head ::: throwing all of Mach's rules out the window... Posted by PCola77 on :
Jo doesn't just throw rules out the window, she beats them with a baseball bat and buries their bodies... Posted by Jo4321 on :
Sigh....Here's another one to add to all the suckiness that has been my day.
quote: --Force Protection Down 21% - Announces Delay in 2007 10-K Filing, Expects Restatement 4:37 p.m. 02/29/2008
Today has been unreal. I lost the equivalent of about 4 months salary in gains today (I work Part-time, though)
I can't believe I haven't just thrown in the towel yet. I'll let you all know when I do, cause that will be the clear signal that the market has hit bottom.
Jo
Edited to add, I just checked and if the after-hours crap with FRPT holds, it is more like 6 months salary, not 4.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
Jo... email me ya list and i'll let ya know what to keep and what to get rid of. We'll go through the list this weekend one by one hopefully.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I'll give ya the top 5 losers here:
RJF FRPT JSDA GME SIRF
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
So,with the news on FRPT out it seems like a buy now close to 10am monday after others jump ship to drive the stock down a little more? Which stocks do you own other than those 5 Jo?
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Other than those 5, I also have ONT NTRI EPAX and TRY.B
All of which are in the red.
I had Apple but sold it last week at $129.70 for a small gain (after some previous losses in it)
And, of course, the one stock I shorted has done nothing but gone up, even though the chart looks like it was overbought. (swc)
Jo
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321:
And, of course, the one stock I shorted has done nothing but gone up, even though the chart looks like it was overbought. (swc)
Jo
I always told you never to short a stock that is over the RSI 50 line Jo. And if you do so because it's in overbought territory then you wait for confirmation (a reversal/bounce off the ceiling). Wait for RESISTANCE before going short.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Guess I jumped the gun on that one, mainly because it looked so overbought, I figure the "confirmation" and the big drop are going to be instantaneous. There probably won't be time for confirmation when it happens. It's gonna happen quick. (at least that's the plan!)
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: I'll give ya the top 5 losers here:
RJF FRPT JSDA GME SIRF
RJF: Below RSI 50 and in a obvious downtrend. Should of been shorted and not gone Long. Dump it and rebuy perhaps when there is a trend reversal.Note: look for the BOUNCE near or at RSI 20
FRPT: Dump it. Should of been dumped when it crashed below the RSI 50.
JSDA: Dump it. Look at what I wrote for RJF.
GME: Dump it. Look at my RJF notes again.
SIRF: Dump it. Similar but not quite to my RJF notes. Can rebuy if Bounce happens since it is going sideways on RSI 20 but do not keep it and "hope" it does. Get confirmation with Bounce.
Note: All the MA's on these 5 should of indicated that you should of dumped them as well as them being below RSI 50.They are lined up in wrong order and in downtrends. Both are indicators and signals that I have taught you Jo. But like I have said you threw Mach's rulebooks out the window and now your feeling the pain due to that.
With a "bounce" always make sure it is in decent to high volume and not low volume.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Guess I jumped the gun on that one, mainly because it looked so overbought, I figure the "confirmation" and the big drop are going to be instantaneous. There probably won't be time for confirmation when it happens. It's gonna happen quick. (at least that's the plan!)
Always wait for confirmation. No matter what. When you don't wait then you suffer the consequences and have no one to blame but yourself. The market is always right and not you.
Btw Platinum, Palladium and other precious metals are at their all time highs and continuing up with no end in sight right now because of the economy being down. When the economy is down people invest in precious metals. SWC is a mining company of these metals and is the most significant mining company of Platinum family metals outside of South Africa where 80% of platinum metals are mined.
There is no reason for shorting SWC when precious metals are on the rise. You knew that i work in the jewelry business. You should of asked me before shorting this. And again you should of waited for the Bounce first regardless. And i will take a wild guess you did not have any Stop/Losses on the first five of your list and this one because if you did your losses shouldn't be that huge.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Other than those 5, I also have ONT NTRI EPAX and TRY.B
All of which are in the red.
I had Apple but sold it last week at $129.70 for a small gain (after some previous losses in it)
And, of course, the one stock I shorted has done nothing but gone up, even though the chart looks like it was overbought. (swc)
Jo
ONT = Keep it for now. It's heading down to RSI 50 and that should be SUPPORT. But if it crashes through on decent to high volume then DUMP IT!!.You can always rebuy if I am wrong and it bounces back up and through RSI 50.
NTRI = Dump it. Below RSI 50, in downtrend etc. Rebuy if bounces off of RSI 20 on decent to high volume though I wouldn't rebuy it because i prefer going Long on stocks above RSI 50. Note: MA's are lined wrong. Indicator to dump it. Should of Shorted it before.
EPAX = Dump it. Crashed through RSI 50 which is now RESISTANCE.
TRY.B = Dump it. Read my EPAX notes. Might go up temporarily on Monday because of Aftermarket hours prices but remember RSI 50 is now RESISTANCE.
Stop losses on any of these Jo? No?
Your becoming a action junkie. Dump all of them except the one i recommended. Go into cash and rethink your trading strategies and go back to Mach's rules. Right now it is a Bear market and you should be shorting more then going Long. But short stocks under RSI 50 with bad financials not Mining companies where there is a Bull Market for precious metals and other commodities. Posted by Jo4321 on :
SIRF - Gone GME - Gone (but went up over a dollar from where I sold) NTRI - Gone JSDA - half gone FRPT - mostly gone
SWC - Still short, ACK!
Posted by Machiavelli on :
keep doing my recommendations though i haven't checked the charts of them today... but i don't see much of a change for them and/or will go up for one day temporarily....
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Breathing a small sigh of relief on that short position with SWC down 9.2% right now. Still not in the green, but feeling much better than this morning when it was in the mid-22's. Thinking of covering and taking the 6% loss just for peace of mind.
Also, I bought some JRCC yesterday at $16.85 and sold it today at 17.75 (using PCola's idea of just going for 5%)
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I'm now out of JSDA, but not before I bought what I sold yesterday back for $4.62 and sold it for $5.04. Why can't I do that more often.
Still won't make up for the losses I have in JSDA, but every little bit helps.
Jo (and dang GME is now up over $2.00 since I dumped it)
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Ooops, thought I'd put in a real low order for JSDA before work, and it filled. BUT, then I noticed instead of putting the order in to buy at $4.75, I had fat-fingered $5.75! So it filled at $5.15 on the open. Lucky for me, I was able to get out of it at $5.21. Made about $15 bucks, but at least I didn't lose anything.
GEEZ!
BTW, GME is now up over $3.00 since my sell, and JRCC is up about a buck and a half since my sell. Out of those I sold lately, two have continued downward (SIRF and FRPT, but the rest have gone up! (GME, NTRI, JRCC, AAPL). And of course all the losers I chose NOT to sell continued down.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321:
BTW, GME is now up over $3.00 since my sell, and JRCC is up about a buck and a half since my sell. Out of those I sold lately, two have continued downward (SIRF and FRPT, but the rest have gone up! (GME, NTRI, JRCC, AAPL). And of course all the losers I chose NOT to sell continued down.
Btw GME is below the 50 line and will not break through it so that $3 or so per share you would of made you would of lost because I know you would not have sold out before or at the 50 line... Tough love but i have to tell ya that...
NTRI - I did say it might bounce up as it approaches the RSI 20... but it's going up is temporary... the MA's are still going down and MA's in that position tend to act as Resistance when the price of the stock approaches them.. but again you would of lost any profits from it because you do not know when to sell out and nor do you put any SL's lately from what i see...
JRCC - I don't think you told me about this one so I didn't analyze it for you...
AAPL - does not matter if Apple is going up right now because it's temporary... look at it's RSI chart... will not pass the 50 line especially since they having some problems.. you have to spot these things (patterns)... because even if it goes up a day or two it will be temporary so those profits you are calculating in your head are just temporary themselves because you have a habit of not recognizing these patterns about the 50 Line anymore and hold onto them longer then you need to... you also are not putting SL's anymore from what it looks... so profits = temporary... then you will come back and post here about how you held too long to it... seen it more times then i can remember Jo ::: rolls eyes ::: sorry tough love but has to be said...
As for the other Losers you CHOSE not to sell... I am not sure if they are the ones I told you to sell but if they are... then you didn't listen to me as usual... Posted by $tock Weazel on :
Hey Mach!
What do you think of DY?
I might buy some tomorrow for a swing trade!
Insider buying!
-$w
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Thanks Mac. I wasn't doubting that I should have sold those. I was just pointing out how often trades do not go my way (title of thread!)
I'm giving you all a head's up now that I sold all my JSDA yesterday and tonight they report earnings. Watch them announce a buyout or something!!! I think everyone (except me) should buy 100 shares just for fun.
This happenned to me with two other stocks, TTWO which I sold the very DAY before a buyout announcement with a 50% premium, and PETC (which was about a year ago. I sold a few days before it went private)
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
Jo,We need to know when you are selling so we can buy at the bottom...J/K...I am not real swift about my investment either.Probably why I turned to a broker in commodities.
Posted by Spectacles on :
Sorry to butt in with this but I'm looking for a quick reply. Any suggestions on an EASY to use L2? I'm ready for it now.
Posted by PCola77 on :
I've never seen L2s that are hard to use. What do you mean?
Posted by Spectacles on :
Not so much hard to use,,I should have easy to read...not a lot of clutter. My apologies for not being clear. I've seen quite a few posted and some seem better than others.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I know what you mean about a lot of clutter. I've found that I like TDAmeritrade's regular no-frills streamer. They have another one that's called "Command Center 2.0" with colors and all kinds of bells and whistles, but I've always found that one to be a bit more confusing to look at. Fidelity's streamer has to be downloaded to your computer, so I cannot use that one at work.
JO (Covered one of my short positions on SWC today for a small gain. Still red on the other short position)
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by $tock Weazel: Hey Mach!
What do you think of DY?
I might buy some tomorrow for a swing trade!
Insider buying!
-$w
Me personally I wouldn't buy it... way in what i call "negative" territory... which is below the RSI 50... when it's in that area it has a uphill battle .... you'd be better off looking for a better stock... it's pretty much hit rock bottom though it can go down further still... but like i said it has a uphill battle... stocks in "positive" territory which is above RSI 50 are much better to own imo... also another reason not to buy this one is how the Moving Averages are lined up... they are all in a downtrend themselves.. this stock might go up temporarily tomorrow but i still wouldn't buy it and especially not on a Friday when people take profits or cut their losses for the week... another side note is that the industry index for this stock is in a downtrend as well.. if the industry (Telecom equipment) is down usually the majority of stocks in the same industry are down and makes it also a uphill for this stock to overcome... so my recommendation is not to buy but that's up to you... do your own DD....
Posted by $tock Weazel on :
quote:Originally posted by Machiavelli:
quote:Originally posted by $tock Weazel: Hey Mach!
What do you think of DY?
I might buy some tomorrow for a swing trade!
Insider buying!
-$w
Me personally I wouldn't buy it... way in what i call "negative" territory... which is below the RSI 50... when it's in that area it has a uphill battle .... you'd be better off looking for a better stock... it's pretty much hit rock bottom though it can go down further still... but like i said it has a uphill battle... stocks in "positive" territory which is above RSI 50 are much better to own imo... also another reason not to buy this one is how the Moving Averages are lined up... they are all in a downtrend themselves.. this stock might go up temporarily tomorrow but i still wouldn't buy it and especially not on a Friday when people take profits or cut their losses for the week... another side note is that the industry index for this stock is in a downtrend as well.. if the industry (Telecom equipment) is down usually the majority of stocks in the same industry are down and makes it also a uphill for this stock to overcome... so my recommendation is not to buy but that's up to you... do your own DD....
Thanks for the TA tips! Really appreciate it.
What are a few stock you are looking at short/long?
I was thinking GOOG might be a nice short...IMO.
Thanks!
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321:
(Covered one of my short positions on SWC today for a small gain. Still red on the other short position)
I was right about AAPL (Apple)... it went down another $3.559 though slightly up in afterhours... still holding this one i take it? Posted by $tock Weazel on :
The bomb is gonna drop tomorrow w/ the job report.
Muhahhahhahhha!!!!! Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by $tock Weazel: Thanks for the TA tips! Really appreciate it.
What are a few stock you are looking at short/long?
I was thinking GOOG might be a nice short...IMO.
Thanks!
Good candidate for shorting since it's in obvious downtrend (including it's MA's) but how much stock could you buy of this since it's over $400 per share? Unless you have alot of money to make any significant profit from it. Anyways assess your funds and always confirm anyone's advice on this board with your own DD and see if it makes sense before you make a final decision on a trade.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
AAPL, no I sold it BEFORE it went up and back down.
Good news. I wasn't holding PAY (which I had had a few weeks ago) when it dropped 21% yesterday.
Jo
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
I betcha google drops below $400/s and the dow may close today below the 12000 mark.Gold may also hit the $1000 mark.If you play platinum it was down another $125 at 5:30 this am and has been going back up since.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I covered my SWC short at $17.15. Let's see if it continues down.
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
Have you shorted CFC down to at least the $4 range?
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Bottomfeeder: Have you shorted CFC down to at least the $4 range?
It might bounce tomorrow or day after since it is very close to the RSI 20. The last 4 or 5 times it was close or at RSI 20 it bounced which means MM's and traders think it is oversold at that level and buy it up temporarily at least for short term profits. Do your own DD though... i'm sure quite a few people made a killing shorting this stock when it was in the $40 + range and held on to it till now...
Posted by Bottomfeeder on :
Mach,what are your thoughts on GRIN? It is up to $2 one day then drops down for a day sometimes 2 to around 1.50 then bounces back up.No new news for some time but it stills moves.Today it was down >25 tomorrow or the next it will probb be back close to $2.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Bottomfeeder: Mach,what are your thoughts on GRIN? It is up to $2 one day then drops down for a day sometimes 2 to around 1.50 then bounces back up.No new news for some time but it stills moves.Today it was down >25 tomorrow or the next it will probb be back close to $2.
I'm not crazy about this one (GRIN). First it's a toy company based in HK which is a part of China. Even if they are legit and make quality products we all know that in the past year Chinese companies/products have been in scandals which would not be good for this company. You are correct though in that Resistance is $2.00 and Support at $1.50 for now. In 2007 they were contemplating looking for a buyer but nothing seemed to come about that. I also do not like the average daily volume on this one. Not much volume and liquidity imo. But anyways it's at RSI 50 and if Support holds then it will bounce up tomorrow off of RSI 50 ($1.50 per share).
Buy it if it bounces off the RSI 50 on decent to high volume. If it crashes through Support/RSI 50 then don't bother. If you are currently holding it then dump it if it crashes through Support/RSI 50. If Support/Resistance keeps holding then you can buy at Support and sell at Resistance a few times til if and when it crashes either/or Support/Resistance then rethink what to do with it if anything at all.
Anyways that is my assessment. Hope it helps but as always do your own DD as well. Posted by Jo4321 on :
Bad decision to sell GME, I see.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Bad decision to sell GME, I see.
No, it was not a bad decision to sell GME... you have to stop looking at 1 day up prices and look at the big picture... step back and just look at it's chart... especially RSI... it went down in afterhours and it's at the RSI 50... i expect it to bounce down tomorrow... though I could be wrong but seldom am lately... it's not how much you gain in one day but overall in how long you hold this stock... most likely with today's surge you would of held it and not taken your profits... and tomorrow if I am correct and bounces down you would of given your profits back to the Market...
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Ah, no, that wasn't one day up since I sold. I sold at $41.67. It has gone up ever since. Now nearly $7.00 more in pre-market.
I had 300 shares. That's $2,100. Instead I took a loss.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
With things seeming to be going from bad to worse tommorrow. I need to get out of the market (yes, I shoulda done it long time ago).
Please don't berate me, folks. Don't tell me all I've done wrong. Just give me your advice on the following:
Is it best to just put in market orders at the open, or to wait a bit for a slight recovery? I'm pretty sure most of my stocks will be gapping down tommmorrow, so I'm not sure if selling at the open is the way to go.
I hate to be one of the lemmings selling into the panic, but I just can't afford to lose any more.
Sadly,
Jo
Posted by T e x on :
too broad a question, Jo. No berating, here, dear...
but generally, market orders rarely turn out well.
If you're gonna be a trader, you gotta realize there's gonna be periods like this. If it's taking you underwater, best be thinking more along the lines of how to rebuild the warchest, once you come up for air.
Personally? am thinking may be a good time to buy, at some nice lows...
but, hey? My risk is not your risk...
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Well, I bought more at "lows" in the past few months, which of course, turned out not to be lows. I have to get out for a while, and as you say, come up for air.
Then I can work on rebuilding. I don't have much capital left to do it, though.
I think I will wait and not do the market orders at the open. Problem is I'm at work when the market opens, so it's gonna be hard to find a good time to pull the trigger. Maybe I'll just ride it out until Tuesday and see what the fed does.
Posted by T e x on :
roger, that, Jo...
I guess all i can add is always protect capital.
ya, Fed report may well be "very handy."
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Wow, there goes another year's salary in losses for me ....in one frigging morning.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Are you talking about your IRA, or personal trading account?
Hopefully you have enough time before retirement to get most of it back...
What were your big losers today? The Dow's down less than 1%, so even though the sentiment seems pretty bad out tehre, the market itself isn't "awful" per se.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I'm counting all three: My trading account, and both mine and hubby's IRA. (well, and I only work part-time, so I don't make all that much in a year)
I sold off RJF and IDMI at the open (and of course got the lowest prices) The others I'm holding til tommorrow to see if the fed will give them a little bounce.
I had a terrible week last week, where I lost my sister, so I guess to put it in perspective...it's only money. But still you'd think I'd catch a break sometime.
Posted by PCola77 on :
You're due for some good luck soon Jo. Maybe you'll hit the powerball this week or something...
Sorry to hear about your sister.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I did win $50.00 at the track last Friday Posted by PCola77 on :
Well I know you said you don't make much, but I assume that didn't quite cover the losses. Posted by Jo4321 on :
Nope, not quite. And pretty much spent the $50.00 on food while we were there.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
quote: I sold off RJF and IDMI at the open (and of course got the lowest prices)
Once again a bad choice, RJF up 7%.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
It was good to wait til today to sell off, though I still sold 'em too early.
NFP out at $18.42 (closed $18.93 DARNIT!) NGAS out at $5.20 (closed $5.199) TRYB out at $7.50 (closed $7.68 VM out at 2.30 (closed $2.32) BSC out at 6.08 (closed $5.91) All the above were losses. I had only two that realized gains: FTEK out at $17.25 (closed $18.86 DARNIT!) SWC out at $18.20 (closed $18.04)
But now, I'm almost completely out of the market. I still hold small positions in FRPT, ONT, and COT. I'm also short CFC.
Now, I'll be able to take a few days to take a breather and try to figure out what to do next to try and recoup some of these losses.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Well, there I go again. Out of BSC at 6.08, it's at over 9.00 in premarket.
You guys really need to play the opposite of what I do.
Jo
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Well, there I go again. Out of BSC at 6.08, it's at over 9.00 in premarket.
You guys really need to play the opposite of what I do.
Jo
*Pinches her nose* This stock will collapse again because for now everyone is just riding the trend... once JP Morgan has won the battle or war all the smart traders will dump the stock... and the greedy ones will keep holding it "hoping" it will go back up... you would of been one of those peeps Jo so your better off not being in this one... continue getting into cash then we discuss how to get your profits back... I haven't traded stocks lately because of my internet connection... but i am itching to get in... this week I will probably be getting a new internet connection and depositing more money into my brokerage account from a mini lawsuit i won...
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Sorry, I was out when my COT shares sold at $2.17 or I would've alerted you guys. (now $2.28)
But I actually had profit on that one. Now just three more positions to close.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Watching GME makes me cry.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Watching GME makes me cry.
You should rebought it when it crossed above the RSI 50 line. Btw the 20 MA is about to cross over the other 2 MA's. Anyways the way i see it, it will do a pull back now so you might still consider going back in this one as long as it DOESN'T GO BELOW THE 50 LINE!! . Posted by Jo4321 on :
Did anyone buy COT after I mentioned I sold it here?
Hope so, since it's up over 50% my "alert" above.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Here's another alert for ya. I closed my QTWW position at 1.12 (10% profit).
Do with that what you will. Jes' saying....
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Somebody PLEASE tell me they bought QTWW when I sold and made a quick 10%....
Jo
Posted by $tock Weazel on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Somebody PLEASE tell me they bought QTWW when I sold and made a quick 10%....
Jo
I was going to...BUT
I forgot!!!!!!!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Hmmm, it may be too late for this one, but I just noticed that my GTC sell order for $17.05 on SWC went through earlier today.
The good news is that on those last two, I did indeed have profit! But if anyone wants to test the "jo effect" theory....go for it.
Jo
GME is up nearly $15.00 since I sold it. when do you all think it will be a good short?
Posted by $tock Weazel on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: GME is up nearly $15.00 since I sold it. when do you all think it will be a good short?
IMO around 60-63...but don't try to take revenge on it LMAO!!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Anyone get in SWC on my sell?
Up .60 or so since then.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Out of DRCO at 10.46.
But I don't know if you can totally trust the Jo effect anymore. Yesterday, I sold FMD for $7.99 (and a profit-yippee!) and today it dropped over 36%.
Jo
Posted by BooDog on :
Awesome Jo!
oops, i responded... get ready for it to double!! LMAO
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Jo Effect alert:
I sold CFC at $4.80 yesterday and IMB at $4.20 today
Somebody throw a few bucks at those just for shiggles. (well, CFC is already up .20 since my sell)
Here are Jo Effect plays from last month or so. If you'd have bought when I sold the following, here's how it would look:
(I'm only using the ones that I actually posted here in this thread.)
NFP out at $18.42 (now $26.37) +43.16% NGAS out at $5.20 (now $6.29) +20.96% TRYB out at $7.50 (now $7.14)-4.80% VM out at 2.30 (now $2.19) -4.78& BSC out at 6.08 (now 10.05) +65.30% FTEK out at $17.25 (now $23.40) +35.65% SWC out at $18.20 (now $18.64) +2.42% QTWW out at $1.14 (now $1.24) +10.71% DRCO out at $10.46 (now $10.20)-2.49% RJF out at $19.30 (now $22.92)+18.76% IDMI out at $2.20 (now $2.20)even COT out at $2.17 (now $3.15) +45.16
Average Jo effect percentage: 21%
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I didn't add FMD to that list because I only meantioned it in this thread a day after I sold it and that was after the big drop.
But if I HAD mentioned it the day I sold and you bought it at my $7.99 sell you'd be down about 49% on that one, but even adding that one in, you'd still be up 15% by doing the opposite of what I do.
Jo
Posted by BooDog on :
Added FMD to my watch list on the 15th.. MAN i coulda. I thought it would retrace. Still watching it.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
OMG CFC up over $1.00 since my sell (21+%)
Just once I'd like to be on the winning side of a big move like that. Instead I took at 2K loss.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
GME....Keeping an eye on it, it's getting up there. Maybe revenge will be sweet.
quote: Originally posted by Jo4321:
GME is up nearly $15.00 since I sold it. when do you all think it will be a good short?
quote: $tock Weazel posted April 04, 2008 18:52 IMO around 60-63...but don't try to take revenge on it LMAO!!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Update, here's how you'd be doing now if you bought when I sold.
NFP out at $18.42 (now $27.01) +46.63% NGAS out at $5.20 (now $6.29) +27.50% TRYB out at $7.50 (now $7.14)-5.20% VM out at 2.30 (now $4.74) +108.26% BSC out at 6.08 (now 10.05) +78.29% FTEK out at $17.25 (now $23.40) +46.72% SWC out at $18.20 (now $18.64) -24.95% QTWW out at $1.14 (now $1.32) +15.79% DRCO out at $10.46 (now $10.20)-2.49% RJF out at $19.30 (now $22.92)+50.78% IDMI out at $2.20 (now $2.08) -5.45% COT out at $2.17 (now $2.97 ) +36.87
Average Jo effect percentage: 31.06%
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Buy alert. I just sold FMD at $3.80
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I had the calculation wrong on RJF above. But it's gone up more since
RJF out at $19.30 (now $30.35)+57.31%
Posted by Jo4321 on :
I guess since this falls under the "I sure know how to pick em" category.
I bought YHOO a few days ago at $26.80, expecting the Microsoft deal. So, now as you may have read, Microsoft is backing out of the deal.
Since this all came as news when the market is closed, is there any chance for the small retail investor to sell out prior to the big drop. I cannot sell in pre-hours until 8:00am with my broker. Am I SOL?
Why do companies always announce bad news when the market is closed?
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
quote: posted May 01, 2008 12:31 Buy alert. I just sold FMD at $3.80
Anyone buy it? It hit $4.13 today.
Posted by BooDog on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321:
quote: posted May 01, 2008 12:31 Buy alert. I just sold FMD at $3.80
Boodog, I'm back in FMD at 3.78, hope it's not the kiss of death for it.
My two most recent sells:
USU at yesterday $5.18 now $5.35 (got as high as $5.50)
JRCC a few days ago at $24.09; now $30-something
Posted by BooDog on :
WTG Jo. when it hit 3.91 I knew it was going down. I am tweaking my exits still. Partly I have 2 problems, leaving too much on the table in a decent run by jumping out OR in something nice and steady like this was I miss jumping out on the top and end up holding too long. I am blaming it on my lack of attention to detail with the charts by letting myself get distracted and not setting stop loss. This morning I saw that I should have bailed but didn't. As a swing I can keep my target But watching opportunities that show it is ready to retrace and allow for an almost re-entry at the same price is pretty cool - but who knew right? There are still a couple decent support levels with this and imo the 3.70 should hold. Crazy day today that's for sure.
Posted by T e x on :
quote:Originally posted by BooDog: WTG Jo. when it hit 3.91 I knew it was going down. I am tweaking my exits still. Partly I have 2 problems, leaving too much on the table in a decent run by jumping out OR in something nice and steady like this was I miss jumping out on the top and end up holding too long. I am blaming it on my lack of attention to detail with the charts by letting myself get distracted and not setting stop loss. This morning I saw that I should have bailed but didn't. As a swing I can keep my target But watching opportunities that show it is ready to retrace and allow for an almost re-entry at the same price is pretty cool - but who knew right? There are still a couple decent support levels with this and imo the 3.70 should hold. Crazy day today that's for sure.
imo, focus on "holding too long," first. That is, don't get "scattered" over several variables...cuz then you're fighting yourself re: doubt, emotion, etc...
In other words, you're not losing capital by exiting "too early." Leaving money on the table via an early exit is one thing...
However, giving away capital via holding on...is tantamount to "trader sin." If you were a carpenter, would you leave your hammer and saw out in the yard, to rust or get picked up by whomever? Well, your capital is your hammer and saw...
Solve one problem at a time.
Ok, lol... offa my soapbox Posted by Jo4321 on :
Soapbox appreciated. It's so true, yet sometimes hard to do.
Lately, (as you can see from posts above), I have been leaving much on the table as the stock then shoots up after I sell. But you are correct, it isn't nearly as painful to watch a stock go up after you sell with a small profit, as it is to watch capital erode away by hanging on too long.
I like this quote from Baron Rothschild: "I made my fortune by selling too early".
Jo
Posted by BooDog on :
Focus is the key word. Anyone want some psycho analysis? I always thought I could self evaluate and "catch" myself but there were a few pointers in this book. Available at the library (of course). Trading to Win By Ari Kiev M.D. http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Win-Psychology-Mastering-Markets/dp/0471248428 Anyway, it doesn't replace Toni Turner or Steve Nison but does have a way of pointing out the way you may be looking at something a different way and clicked a couple light bulbs. Realizing where I'm going wrong and why is the first step to recovery. I don't spend even a quarter of my time trading as some of you guys but I am always trying to learn more. Thanks Tex, I hate leaving my tools out ~ good analogy. Cheers!
Okay.... back to you Jo!
Posted by Jo4321 on :
hmmm, I wasn't paying attention. I didn't realize that FMD was reporting earnings tonight.
If the Jo effect holds, I guess we can expect a free fall.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Crap, I did it again. FMD is $3.40 after hours.
Boodog, I'm just hoping you took my buy in as your sell signal.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
UPDATE: First Marblehead Swings To 3Q Loss On Write-Downs>
FMDLast update: 5/8/2008 4:28:28 PM
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES First Marblehead Corp. (FMD) swung to a fiscal third-quarter loss Thursday as the company remained unable to complete a single securitization transaction - previously its major source of revenue.
The results came in well below analysts' expectations, sending First Marblehead's shares down in after-hours trading. The student loan lender company reported a net loss for the quarter ended March 31 of $229.6 million, or $2.36 a share, compared with year-earlier net income of $71.2 million, or 75 cents a share.
The latest results included a $315 million write-down on the fair value of the company's service receivables. The company reported negative revenue of $251.8 million because of the write-downs. The mean per-share loss estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters was 36 cents on revenue of $26 million.
"Our earnings this fiscal quarter were disappointing and affected by the continued disruption in the capital markets and the challenging consumer credit cycle," said Chief Executive Jack Kopnisky. "However, we recognize that the demand for private student loans and other services continues to be very strong." Kopnisky added that the company has "taken a number of actions to reposition its business model in light of the current environment." The company originated $1 billion in student loans during the quarter, up 19% from a year earlier. First Marblehead like many companies in private student-loan industry has been left scrambling for capital in the credit crunch.
The company depends on securitizations of student loans for most of its revenue, but it hasn't been able to put together a new package of loans since September. As a result, its shares have fallen 76% this year. Loans available for securitization were up 19% at $1.04 billion. Earlier this month, the company said it slashed it work force in half - hoping to trim operating costs by $200 million amid what it called "an extraordinarily challenging business environment."
Last month, First Marblehead effectively lost two big partners when Bank of America Corp. (BAC) stopped making private student loans, and Education Resources Institute Inc., which provided First Marblehead's borrower default guarantees, filed for bankruptcy. First Marblehead shares closed Thursday at $3.72. Shares recently changed hands at $3.49 in after-hours trading. -By Andrew Edwards, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5973; Andrew.Edwards*dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires
Posted by BooDog on :
Ouchies!! Turn and run but watch for the bounce imo. They knew this was coming though. Will need to review the charts for the bounce.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Sold CHCI today at .69
You know what that means.....
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Sheesh, CHCI closed at HOD at .75.
That's okay, I bought it at .53, so I still made 30%.
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: I guess since this falls under the "I sure know how to pick em" category.
I bought YHOO a few days ago at $26.80, expecting the Microsoft deal. So, now as you may have read, Microsoft is backing out of the deal.
Since this all came as news when the market is closed, is there any chance for the small retail investor to sell out prior to the big drop. I cannot sell in pre-hours until 8:00am with my broker. Am I SOL?
Why do companies always announce bad news when the market is closed?
Jo
That was one that was a given not to buy Jo... it was in the news for weeks that Yahoo's founder was refusing Microsoft's offer and that Microsoft's CEO wouldn't budge on making a higher offer.. you bought this one strictly on greed and not Reason...
Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Sold CHCI today at .69
You know what that means.....
Still throwing Mach's rules out the window i see including not trading in Pennies anymore... Posted by Machiavelli on :
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321:
I like this quote from Baron Rothschild: "I made my fortune by selling too early".
Jo
Read Jesse Livermore in Reminisces of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre... much better quotes and advice... also I don't remember who said it but I always like this quote: Why sell a Rising stock? ...
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Well, you can all buy Yahoo now. I just unloaded it at $27.65
Jo
Posted by Stupid on :
And to think Yahoo is going back up next week.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
hmmm, the jo effect didn't quite work on YHOO (at least not immediately like usual).
![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
As for me.. I'm still holding CBZ ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
LoL. OMG...this is unreal!!! ![[Confused]](confused.gif)
but you still have an idea! I don't want to expand any more on this subject/topic...cause I'll come off like an assh##ole...but I promise I'm not......to end positive...Jo is very honest! ![[Cool]](cool.gif)
....with herself and allstocks.....which is key to sucess![[Wall Bang]](graemlins/wallbang.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Frown]](frown.gif)