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TheRealSlimShady
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quote:
Originally posted by budgie:
i dont think slim or anyone else wants to put up their email addresses for spam, but since you want the help you should put yours up and chance the abuse


or better yet edit your message and ask your direct question



I am not afraid of spam, my email is Bucky@rbmg.com feel free to drop me a line, however I get real busy during trading hours so it might be a few before Iget back to ya!


Posts: 307 | From: Elgin SC US | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TheRealSlimShady
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quote:
Originally posted by realityinc21:
I HAD POSTED SEVERAL MONTHS AGO. MAYBE THIS WILL HELP PEOPLE. DIANA

ESTABLISH A SET OF TRADING RULES THAT WORK FOR YOU. THESE ARE MY RULES. YOU HAVE TO COMPILE YOUR OWN. MAYBE THIS WILL GIVE YOU SOME GUIDELINES TO GO BY.

MY PENNY STOCK RULES:

1. I never buy on impulse or get emotionally attached to a penny stock--think LOGIC--I buy it, I sell it, I make money and I rarely look back.
2. I never buy a stock JUST because I like it or worse someone else likes it.
3. I rarely buy a micro penny stock trading under a volume of 50,000 mil--80 to 100 mil is better (always remember there has to be buyer for every stock you buy)..
4. I rarely hold a micro penny stock over night...My definition of micro penny is under .10 cents ..Rarely over a weekend..NOTICE I SAID RARELY. THERE ARE SOME STOCKS THAT HAVE A BUILD UP AND IF THE VOLUME IS GOOD AND I FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT MY DD I WILL HOLD IT FOR THE RUN. At $7.00 to $10.00 a trade I can buy and sell it every day on news or hype or earning whatever. .(THAT'S WHY IT'S CALLED DAYTRADING)
5. I never buy a penny stock on the way up. IE CHASING I watch the pre market trading and set a buy price and a sell price and stick to it (missed out on NEOM by sticking to my rules--I noticed it at .11 and refused to buy to high) UPSIDE IS I DO NOT HOLD 500,000 SHARES OF NEOM AT.43 CENTS---DOWNSIDE I DID NOT MAKE 50,000 DOLLARS. I DID MAKE A COUPLE OF GRAND BY PLAYING THE GAP AFTER THE RUN. IF YOU MISS THE RUN PLAY THE GAP. ie THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE. LIKE THE MAN SAID--THERE IS ANOTHER STOCK JUST WAITING TO BE BOUGHT.
6. I never think about GETTING RICH OR RETIRING on penny stocks..My goal is to make $200.00 a day and not lose my original investment. Most often I exceed my goal. (When I lose money it is usually because I have not followed my own rules)
7. I never ride a stock down--I will sell it and re-buy it. EXAMPLE: BOUGHT CTKH AT .002 AND .0022. SOLD HALF AT .0046. SOLD HALF OF THAT HALF AT .0069. IT STARTED GOING DOWN AND I BAILED OUT AT .006. NOW LOOKING A BUYING AGAIN. LOGIC-DO YOU ACTUALLY BELIEVE MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS WOULD HAVE HELD ONTO IBM IF IT DROPPED 50%?????--(WELL SOME WOULD) LOL I THINK NOT..RIDING A STOCK DOWN IS LIKE THROWING 50% OF YOUR MONEY OUT OF A CAR WINDOW AT 75 MILES AN HOUR AND HOPING IT FLIES BACK TO YOU. OR BETTER YET "IF YOU LOVE IT LET IT GO--IF IT LOVES YOU IT WILL COME BACK TO YOU". THATS BULL****--IF IT LOVED YOU IN THE FIRST PLACE IT NEVER WOULD HAVE LEFT.....I have actually bought and sold the same stock 3 times in one day. ATNG WAS A 3 TIME BUY AND SELL. BOUGHT AND SOLD IBZT 3 TIMES ONE DAY. (not usually but it does happen).

8. I never insult or bash another fellow trader..I respect other people's trading methods. I LEARN FROM THEM. What the hell--It's not my money.....( It's not like they are setting on third base at a black jack table and take a hit on 15 and the dealer has a 6 showing and I have $500.00 dollars riding on that hand). Remember it is us against them. I DO LISTEN AND LEARN AND BENEFIT FROM THEM.
9. I never trade with MONEY that I am not willing to lose.
10. I follow the market and market trends (not just the stocks)
11. I never buy a stock without reviewing, analyzing and understanding the charts. I learned how to read charts and believe in them...They do not lie..I MAY NOT KNOW WHAT A COMPANY MAKES OR PRODUCES OR SELLS WHEN I BUY IT BUT I DO REVIEW THE CHARTS ON THE FLY AND PUT IN A BUY ORDER FOR SMALL AMOUNT TO GET IN THE DOOR. MOST TRADERS KNOW WHEN A RUN IS COMING AND HAVE ALREADY DONE THE DUE.
12. I never get gambling and investing confused. I INVEST IN REAL ESTATE...MY BUSINESS...SMALL,MEDIUM AND LARGE CAP STOCKS WITH A HISTORY-MANAGEMENT TEAM-FINANCIALS--ASSETS--CASH--ETC..30YEARS+ GROWTH AND INCOME MUTUAL FUNDS WITH 12% OVERALL GAIN IN GOOD AND BAD TIMES (THEY ARE PROFESSIONALS AND THAT IS THEIR JOB). I GAMBLE WITH PENNIES.. MY DEFINITION OF PENNIES IS ANYTHING UNDER $1.00.
13. I always take 50% of earning from each week and e-transfer into INTEREST BEARING TAX account. THEN I LEARNED HOW TO INVEST THAT MONEY IN REAL ESTATE, IRA, TO ELIMINATE PAYING TAXES. INCORPORATE AND PROTECT.
14. I ALWAYS TAKE MY ORIGINAL INVESTMENT OUT OF THE EQUATION WHEN IT IS FEASIBLE TO MAKE ENOUGH MONEY ON THE TRADE TO MAKE IT WORTHWHILE. IE..WHEN THE STOCK IS ON A RUN UP SELL PORTIONS AT A TIME TO RECOUP ORIGINAL INVESTMENT. IF IT IS A STOCK I PLAN TO KEEP LIKE TFSM--I BOUGHT AT 1.06. AT 2.12 I SOLD HALF AND RECOUP INVESTMENT AND KEEP 5000 SHARES FOR FREE.
15. I ALWAYS HAVE FUN......ACTUALLY I HAVE A BLAST....
16. I LEARN SOMETHING NEW EVERYDAY...
17. I CAN'T SPELL, TYPE WELL OR USE PROPER GRAMMAR--AND I SWEAR LIKE A SAILOR..BUT IF YOU PUT A DOLLAR SIGN IN FRONT OF IT---I WILL FIGURE IT OUT.......THAT CERTAINLY DOES NOT MAKE ME STUPID..IT MAKES ME SMART BY RECOGNIZING MY LIMITATIONS. LEARN YOURS.
18. I ALWAYS MAKE MY OWN DECISIONS AND TAKE ALL RESPONSIBILITY FOR MY ACTIONS.
19. I LAUGH EVERYDAY..MOSTLY AT MYSELF AND SOMETIMES AT OTHERS...
20. LAST AND MOST IMPORTANT--THE MARKET HAS A RHYTHM--EACH STOCK HAS A RHYTHM--LIKE GREAT SEX--A RHYTHM..FIGURE OUT YOUR OWN RHYTHM WITH THE MARKET. IT IS CALLED DUE DILIGENCE. LEARN THE RHYTHM OF THE CHARTS. THE REST WILL FOLLOW. TAKE THE TIME TO PASS ON YOUR GOOD FORTUNE TO OTHERS. WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK.

DIANA



Is it just me or did anyone else get turned on by Diana's post? LOL


Posts: 307 | From: Elgin SC US | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
WWJD-thru-me
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Diana, You are so smart-Way smart-not just trading but remembering to have fun. The discipline you have is awesome. I love your rules and violate most of them. When I am not having fun (like yesterday) it is because I chased something, kept it too long and threw money out the window. I am going to print those rules out, frame them and hang em where I can see them while trading. Have a green day. I know I will today. It is impossible to have as many red stocks as i did yesterday 2 days in a row. -Debi
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rohara
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i love both of you. I could never come up with plans like those.


Posts: 7 | From: FL | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
RockBats
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OK, after watching this thread, I finally decided to post what I do. I was hesitant at first, because my "method" is not very scientific.

1. I browse this board to see what stock is currently popular. If a micro-penny stock is being discussed heavily, then that means that there is probably good volume. This AllStocks board is ideal for that, because the most active threads remain at the top of the board.

2. After reviewing what the posters have to say about the stock, I then go elsewhere to confirm what was said (my own DD).

3. Most importantly, I review the chart.

******************************
Unless PR is coming soon, or a launch date is expected, there is no reason why we should expect for a stock to behave differently than how it has behaved in the past.
*******************************

If there have been PPS spikes in the past, then we can expect for those to happen again... it's getting in BEFORE they happen where boards like this are a tremendous help.

4. When I am in a great stock, I too sell off and keep free shares. TOO MANY times in the past have I ridden a stock down on corrections, only to see all my gains disappear.

5. WHEN STOCKS ARE FALLING: When I read charts, I like to wait until a stock has made an upward turn before I buy. UNLESS there is an expected launch date, etc. Trying to predict the bottom is very difficult. When a stock is going DOWN, I'd rather wait until I see the first signs of upward movement, and/or big volume, and then keep a close eye on the 2nd day... before deciding to buy. I've learned my lesson TOO MANY TIMES when buying too early. Buy too early (when the stock is still going down, but expected to come UP), and you usually find yourself waiting for the price to come back UP past the point that you bought-in at.

I'd rather miss a day, or two of upward movement, and buy-in when the stock is on the RISE.

6. WHEN STOCKS ARE RISING: Once again, I look at past history (i.e. the charts), and try to guess where the latest rise will run out of gas. If there have been similar rises in the past, it is best to be safe and NOT expect that the current rise will outperform previous ones. Pick a modest PPS, say 80% of the previous high, and pick that as your "RED ALERT" point... a correction is likely to happen soon. I usually sell enough to keep free shares at this point.... however, when the stock is good, I sometimes keep them longer to see if it goes higher... but at that point, I am trigger-happy.

That's it for me. I've traded stocks for about 12 years now, but I just started actively trading using the methods that I listed here since December (2003). I'm probably up 400% since December, and mostly trading free shares now. But I attribute that to LUCK... my first buy was PGHI (now GZFX).

I like Diana's $200-per-day target.

This was hard to do when I only had 1 or 2 stocks, but now that I have several micro-penny stocks, this is very achievable. If you "gamble" wisely on the micro-penny stocks that are being discussed heavily on this board, there is potential to build an income generator. (notice I said "gamble").

Everyone here has the same objective.. to make money.

FINALLY, pick a few posters here at AllStocks that you trust... and go search the threads that they post in. You will usually get a decent idea of what stocks THEY support.... and then start over with #2 above.

Good Luck To ALL!!


Posts: 58 | From: Monona, WI, USA | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TheRealSlimShady
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The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com Page The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators by Wall Street Courier Version 1.1 office@wallstreetcourier.com www.wallstreetcourier.com
1
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Preface The transparency of the American markets offers an array of indicators and allows deep insights of prevailing sentiment. You find the activities of NYSE members like specialists and floor traders, public and odd lot short sales, the Short Interest Ratio as well as the large block transactions of the institutional investors published every week. Other tools for technical analysis include trend indicators, daily advances and declines, daily new highs and lows, volume, indices, put/call ratios and other useful information like Stochastics, RSI, MACD, TICK and more. The problem is only that all these indicators contradict each other most of the time. Countless books have been written on this subject, and no matter how many will be written in the future: always be aware that there is no such thing as the Holy Grail of the stock market. But some people are more successful than others and the answer is quite simple: No indicator is right all the time and you don't have to be right all the time. Just be right a higher percentage of the time than wrong. Choose some reliable indicators and stick to them. Don't follow some indicators for a while and switch to some others if they fail. Don't be a technician in the first half of the year and a fundamentalist the next half. Be consistent and disciplined in your approach. Don't abandon a good indicator because you think this time everything is different. It takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the most widely quoted gurus of Wall Street are usually contrary to your indicators at that time. This is much easier if you don't use margin. You will sleep a lot better if you buy fifty shares of IBM with the money you can spare than two hundred shares on credit. Happy Trading Wall Street Courier www.wallstreetcourier.com Page 2
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Table of Content Advance-Decline Indicators...................................................................................................5 Advance-Decline Line........................................................................................................5 Advance-Decline Ratio.......................................................................................................7 Upside-Downside Volume Ratio........................................................................................8 Upside-Downside Volume Line..........................................................................................9 Upside-Downside Volume Net Difference........................................................................11 Advance-Decline Net Difference......................................................................................12 Global Futures Advance-Decline Index............................................................................13 Global Futures Upside-Downside Volume Index..............................................................13 Market Indicators.................................................................................................................14 High-Low Differential Index..............................................................................................14 High-Low Ratio................................................................................................................15 Global Futures High-Low Index........................................................................................16 Global Futures Bottom Indicator......................................................................................16 Cycles.............................................................................................................................19 Large Block Index............................................................................................................19 Short Term Trading Index (ARMS Index or TRIN)...........................................................20 Trend Indicator.................................................................................................................22 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)..............................................................................................23 Index Options Put/Call Ratio............................................................................................23 Call/Put Ratio...................................................................................................................24 Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio.....................................................................................25 Smart Money Flow Index.................................................................................................26 Global Futures Timing Indicator.......................................................................................27 Global Futures Market Timer Index..................................................................................28 Global Futures Fear Indicator..........................................................................................29 Wall Street Courier Index.................................................................................................29 Global Futures Trading Index...........................................................................................30 Global Futures Speculation Index....................................................................................31 Program Trading..............................................................................................................32 Calendar Spread..............................................................................................................33 Odd-Lot Differential Index................................................................................................34 Page 3
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Short Sales Statistics...........................................................................................................35 The NYSE Short Interest Ratio........................................................................................35 Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio...............................................................................................36 Floor Traders Short Sales Ratio.......................................................................................36 Specialist Short Sales Ratio.............................................................................................37 NYSE Member Short Sales Ratio....................................................................................38 Public Short Sales Ratio..................................................................................................38 Odd-Lot Balance Index....................................................................................................39 Odd-Lot/Floor Trader Short Sales Ratio...........................................................................40 Global Futures Odd-Lot/Specialist Short Sales Ratio.......................................................40 Global Futures Public/Member Short Sales Ratio............................................................41 Public/Specialists Short Sales Ratio................................................................................42 High readings indicate heavy shorting by the public (the so called crowd) and therefore bottoms, low readings indicate tops.................................................................................42 Global Futures NYSE Member Trading Indicator.............................................................43 Sentiment Indicators............................................................................................................44 Investor Sentiment...........................................................................................................44 Commitments of Traders Report......................................................................................46 Appendix.............................................................................................................................48 Dow Jones Industrial........................................................................................................48 S&P 500...........................................................................................................................48 Risk Statement....................................................................................................................49 Page 4
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Advance-Decline Indicators Advance-Decline Line The Advance-Decline Line is a market breadth indicator and should be compared to the other market indices like the Dow Jones or S&P 500. Daily or weekly NYSE data is used in the calculation. Because the Advance-Decline Line reflects the action of the general market, any divergences are watched closely by market technicians. As long as the Dow and the Advance-Decline Line are moving in the same direction the trend will continue. If the Dow makes a new high which is not confirmed by a high of the Advance-Decline Line, caution is warranted. Vice versa, if the Dow makes a new low and the Advance-Decline Line doesn't you should cover your short sales. ADVANCE - DECLINE LINE WEEKLY10000012000014000016000096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10- 0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com To calculate your own weekly Advance-Decline Line is very simple and you can begin your calculations at any time. Just pick a large enough base number like 100000. Then you calculate each week (or day) the difference between advances and declines by adding the advances and subtracting the declines. If you have 1269 advances and 1457 declines on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly Advance-Decline Line would be 99812 (example below). Page 5
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Date Advances Declines A-D Line 100000 09.06.95 1269 1457 99812 16.06.95 1714 975 100551 23.06.95 1591 1148 100994 30.06.95 1346 1348 100992 07.07.95 2032 692 102332 14.07.95 1507 1191 102648 21.07.95 894 1875 101667 28.07.95 1891 845 102713 04.08.95 1404 1291 102826 11.08.95 1187 1489 102524 18.08.95 1624 1043 103105 25.08.95 1486 1176 103415 01.09.95 1656 1011 104060 08.09.95 1903 759 105204 The Advance-Decline Line gave a useful example in 1999. During the strong bull market the advance was quite broad and the A/D Line moved in tandem with the Dow. But when the Dow made new highs in the beginning of 1999 the A/D Line was already lagging behind, indicating a weakening of the general market. Internet mania and technology craze kept the market going for a while. Page 6
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Advance-Decline Ratio The Advance-Decline Ratio is also market breadth indicator. It is calculated by dividing the number of advancing issues by the number of declining issues using daily or weekly NYSE data. It works very well as an overbought/oversold indicator and as a momentum indicator. A moving average should be used to smooth out the swings. Date Advances Declines A/D * 100 10-Week MA 09.06.95 1269 1457 87 16.06.95 1714 975 176 23.06.95 1591 1148 139 30.06.95 1346 1348 100 07.07.95 2032 692 294 14.07.95 1507 1191 127 21.07.95 894 1875 48 28.07.95 1891 845 224 04.08.95 1404 1291 109 11.08.95 1187 1489 80 138 18.08.95 1624 1043 156 145 25.08.95 1486 1176 126 140 01.09.95 1656 1011 164 143 08.09.95 1903 759 251 158 This chart shows you the weekly NYSE Advance-Decline Ratio on a 10-week moving average. Readings below 90 indicate intermediate bottoms and readings above 170 tops. ADVANCE-DECLINE RATIO0,400,801,201,602,002,4095-08-1195-10-0695-12-0196-01-2696-03-2296-05-1796-07-1296-09-0696-11-0196-12-2797-02-2197-04-1897-06-1397-08-0897-10-0397-11-2898-01-2398-03-2098-05-1 598-07-1098-09-0498-10-3098-12-2599-02-1999-04-1699-06-1199-08-0699-10-0199-11-2600-01-2100-03-1700-05-1200-07-0700-09-0100-10-2700-12-2201-02-1601-04-1301-06-08© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE Page 7
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Upside-Downside Volume Ratio The Upside-Downside Volume Ratio is also market breadth indicator. It is calculated by dividing the volume of advancing issues by the volume of declining issues, using daily or weekly NYSE data. It works very well as an overbought/oversold indicator and as well as a momentum indicator. A moving average should be used to smooth out the swings. Date Adv. Volume Decl. Volume AV/DV*100 10-Week MA 09.06.95 673210 732827 92 16.06.95 943121 565840 167 23.06.95 964871 666807 145 30.06.95 674725 765076 88 07.07.95 867512 353025 246 14.07.95 945574 756197 125 21.07.95 755969 1027248 74 28.07.95 1008468 584579 173 04.08.95 733204 703285 104 11.08.95 565588 669580 84 130 18.08.95 796723 615752 129 133 25.08.95 629338 603130 104 127 01.09.95 727349 553140 131 126 08.09.95 746298 418632 178 135 UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE VOLUME RATIO8010012014016018096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12- 0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 8
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Upside-Downside Volume Line The Upside-Downside Volume Line is a market breadth indicator and should be compared to the other market indices like the Dow Jones or S&P 500. Daily or weekly NYSE data is used in the calculation. Because the Upside-Downside Volume Line reflects the action of the general market, any divergences are watched closely by market technicians. As long as the Dow and the Upside-Downside Volume Line are moving in the same direction the trend will continue. If the Dow makes a new high which is not confirmed by a high of the Upside-Downside Volume Line, caution is warranted. It is more affirmative than the Advance-Decline Line and it gave a perfect sell signal in January 2000, when the Dow made a new high and the Upside-Downside Volume Line lagged behind (charts below). Vice versa, if the Dow makes a new low and the Upside-Downside Volume Line doesn't, you should cover your short sales. To calculate your own weekly Upside-Downside Volume Line is very simple and you can begin your calculations at any time. Just pick a large enough base number like 1000000. Then you calculate each week (or day) the difference between the upside volume and downside volume by adding the volume of advancing issues and subtracting the volume of declining issues. If you have an upside volume of 673210 and a downside volume of 732827 on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly Upside-Downside Volume Line would be 940383 (example below). Date Upside Volume Downside Volume U-D Volume Line 1000000 09.06.95 673210 732827 940383 16.06.95 943121 565840 1317664 23.06.95 964871 666807 1615728 30.06.95 674725 765076 1525377 07.07.95 867512 353025 2039864 14.07.95 945574 756197 2229241 21.07.95 755969 1027248 1957962 28.07.95 1008468 584579 2381851 04.08.95 733204 703285 2411770 11.08.95 565588 669580 2307778 18.08.95 796723 615752 2488749 25.08.95 629338 603130 2514957 01.09.95 727349 553140 2689166 08.09.95 746298 418632 3016832 Page 9
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Here is a beautiful example of the Upside-Downside Volume Line. Volume moves the markets and this indicator gave a perfect sell signal in December 1999, when the Dow made a new high and the Upside-Downside Volume Line didn't. It would have kept you also on the right side of the market right to the top. ADVANCE - DECLINE VOLUME LINE10000003000000500000070000009000000110000001300000015000000170000001900000021000000230000002500000096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05 -2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-060 0-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comDIVERGENCE DOW JONES WEEKLY CLOSE5000600070008000900010000110001200096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-0 8-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com DIVERGENCE Page 10
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Upside-Downside Volume Net Difference Another method used by market technicians is to calculate the net difference between the upside- and downside volume. Daily or weekly data can be used. The net difference between upside- and downside volume is calculated weekly and the result is added. To smooth out the swings, a 10-week moving average should be applied. Below there is an example for weekly calculations: Date Adv. Volume Decl. Volume Net Difference Cumulative 0 09.06.95 673210 732827 -59617 -59617 16.06.95 943121 565840 377281 317664 23.06.95 964871 666807 298064 615728 30.06.95 674725 765076 -90351 525377 07.07.95 867512 353025 514487 1039864 14.07.95 945574 756197 189377 1229241 21.07.95 755969 1027248 -271279 957962 28.07.95 1008468 584579 423889 1381851 04.08.95 733204 703285 29919 1411770 11.08.95 565588 669580 -103992 1307778 18.08.95 796723 615752 180971 1488749 25.08.95 629338 603130 26208 1514957 01.09.95 727349 553140 174209 1689166 08.09.95 746298 418632 327666 2016832 UP - DOWNVOLUME NET DIFFERENCE-1000000-5000000500000100000096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08 -1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 11
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Advance-Decline Net Difference Another method used by market technicians is to calculate the net difference between advances and declines. Daily or weekly data can be used. The net difference between advances and declines is calculated weekly and the result is added. To smooth out the swings, a 10-week moving average is applied. Below there is an example for weekly calculations: Date Advances Declines Net Differ. Cumulative 10-Week MA 09.06.95 1269 1457 -188 -188 16.06.95 1714 975 739 551 23.06.95 1591 1148 443 1182 30.06.95 1346 1348 -2 441 07.07.95 2032 692 1340 1338 14.07.95 1507 1191 316 1656 21.07.95 894 1875 -981 -665 28.07.95 1891 845 1046 65 04.08.95 1404 1291 113 1159 11.08.95 1187 1489 -302 -189 535,0 18.08.95 1624 1043 581 279 581,7 25.08.95 1486 1176 310 891 615,7 01.09.95 1656 1011 645 955 593,0 08.09.95 1903 759 1144 1789 727,8 The chart went from extremely overbought in July 1997 to heavily oversold in September 1998: ADVANCE - DECLINE NET DIFFERENCE-1500-1000-500050010001500200096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-0 8-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© Page 12
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Global Futures Advance-Decline Index This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly number of advances and declines by the number of total issues traded. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. ADVANCE - DECLINE INDEX WEEKLY0,300,350,400,450,500,550,6096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498 -10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comADVANCESDECLINES Global Futures Upside-Downside Volume Index This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly upside and downside volumes by the weekly total volume. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. UPSIDE - DOWNSIDE VOLUME INDEX WEEKLY0,360,380,400,420,440,460,480,500,520,540,5696-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498 -06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comUPSIDE VOLUMEDOWNSIDE VOLUMEy Page 13
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Market Indicators High-Low Differential Index Like the advance-decline line, the high-low indicators produce signals when they diverge from the action of the indices like the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. It is considered unhealthy for the market climate if the indices make new highs without many stocks reaching new highs at the same time. Chart technicians use various methods to spot divergences from the major market indices. The High-Low Differential Index produces good longer term signals when it diverges from the action of the Dow over a prolonged period of time. Daily or weekly data may be used and the calculation of this indicator is very simple; just subtract the daily or weekly new lows from the new highs to get the differential and apply a moving average to smooth out the swings. If you have 479 new highs and 31 new lows on your first week, the reading of your newly created weekly High-Low Differential Index would be 448 (example below). Date Highs Lows Differential 10-week MA 09.06.95 479 31 448 16.06.95 371 42 329 23.06.95 491 56 435 30.06.95 292 42 250 07.07.95 485 29 456 14.07.95 635 36 599 21.07.95 331 50 281 28.07.95 464 43 421 04.08.95 402 42 360 11.08.95 337 47 290 387 18.08.95 338 53 285 371 25.08.95 336 46 290 367 01.09.95 397 50 347 358 08.09.95 530 31 499 383 15.09.95 664 43 621 399 Page 14
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HIGH-LOW DIFFERENTIAL INDEX-1500-1000-50005001000150096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10 -0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com High-Low Ratio The High-Low Ratio is the number of new highs divided by the numbers of new lows. Daily or weekly data may be used in the calculation. Readings do get sometimes very distorted if there are for instance about 600 new highs and 5 new lows or vice versa. A long-period moving average should therefore be applied. HIGH-LOW RATIO WEEKLY0246810121416182096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12 -0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 15
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Global Futures High-Low Index This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly number of highs and lows by the number of total issues traded. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Like the advance-decline line, this indicator produces signals when it diverges from the action of the indices like the Dow Jones or the S&P 500. It is considered unhealthy for the market climate if the indices make new highs without many stocks reaching new highs at the same time. HIGH -LOW INDEX0,010,030,050,070,090,110,130,150,170,190,210,230,2596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798- 04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comLOWSHIGHS10- WEEK MOVING AVERAGE Global Futures Bottom Indicator The Global Futures Bottom Indicator was developed by R. Koch of Wall Street Courier. To our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. It does not appear very often but it is extremely reliable when the market is at a turning point. It prevents long-term investors from buying at the wrong time and works especially well for option traders because of its incredibly perfect timing. Unfortunately this indicator does not tell you when to sell. Set yourself a limit if you trade options, or use trailing stop-loss orders if you are a long-term investor. Page 16
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Check BARRON`S every Monday for the weekly: • CALLS ADVANCES • CALLS DECLINES • PUTS ADVANCES • PUTS DECLINES • (CBOE MARKET REPORT) It takes you only five minutes every week to calculate the Global Futures Bottom Indicator: • Divide the number of calls advancing by the number of calls declining • Divide the number of puts declining by the number of puts advancing • Subtract the result of calls adv./decl. from the result of puts decl./adv. • Plot the difference on a chart and ignore the decimal. Example Calls Adv. Calls Decl. Unch. Puts Adv. Puts Decl. Unch. Prev.Week 23000 11000 8000 7000 25000 10000 This Week 9000 26000 6000 24000 8000 7000 You calculate as follows: 23000 : 11000 = 2,09 25000 : 7000 = 3,57 Difference = 148 (357 minus 209) 9000 : 26000 = 0,34 8000 : 24000 = 0,33 Difference = - 1 ( 33 minus 34) Date Calls Adv. Calls Decl. Calls A/D Puts Adv. Puts Decl. Puts D/A Bottom Indicator 09.06.95 12656 14215 0,89 9590 13879 1,45 56 16.06.95 17696 9818 1,80 5647 18431 3,26 146 23.06.95 14390 8550 1,68 6014 13839 2,30 62 30.06.95 10933 17902 0,61 12571 11735 0,93 32 07.07.95 21611 7779 2,78 4894 20146 4,12 134 14.07.95 17819 12190 1,46 8627 15531 1,80 34 21.07.95 9071 22844 0,40 15943 9405 0,59 19 28.07.95 18152 7554 2,40 4748 17237 3,63 123 04.08.95 11159 21092 0,53 14649 11905 0,81 28 11.08.95 13081 19336 0,68 12100 14522 1,20 52 18.08.95 19594 12741 1,54 6930 20184 2,91 137 25.08.95 9760 16547 0,59 10368 11238 1,08 49 Page 17
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THE GLOBAL FUTURES BOTTOM INDICATOR-25257512517522527532537542547596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-0 8-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com THE GLOBAL FUTURES BOTTOM INDICATOR-20,00-10,000,0010,0020,0030,0040,0050,0096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498 -06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYBOTTOM Any zero or minus reading indicates a bottom. Since this indicator was invented and developed it only failed twice on a minus reading if compared to the Dow Jones. This was due to panic selling on August 3rd and August 24th 1990 when Saddam invaded Kuwait. • Readings between 1 and 5 are also very reliable and indicate intermediate bottoms in bull markets. • Readings up to 25 may work but should be counterchecked with other indicators such as the Global Futures Market Timing Indicator. • Readings above 600 are good breadth indicators and show you that a powerful market move on the upside is to be expected. • Ignore all other readings.
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For your convenience there is a track record attached (377 kb) back to 1985 for you to check the value of this indicator. Plot the numbers on a chart and compare it with previous market action. Feel free to make use of our indicator if you find it useful. Feel also free to publish it as long as you mention the source and call it the Global Futures Bottom Indicator. Download the track record at http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/timing-indicators/track-record.htm Cycles Cycle analysis has a long history and is also part of technical analysis. All markets appear to be subject to cyclical patterns and forces caused by economic influences and countless other factors. Stock market movements seem to take place with cyclical regularity and timing your trades to coincide with anticipated cyclical movements can be very rewarding. Wall Street Courier offers some very reliable cycles for subscribers. Large Block Index The Large Block Index is calculated from the number of upticks and downticks in large block transactions of single trades of 10 000 shares and over. An uptick is at a price higher than the last previous trade and initiated by a buyer. A downtick is at a price lower than the previous trade and initiated by a seller. The rationale behind the Large Block Index is quite simple. It measures activities and extremes in institutional sentiment and behavior. When the ratio of upticks rises to very high levels, it indicates that the institutions are buying heavily, reaching a fully invested position and therefore lowering their cash reserves. Conversely, when the ratio of downticks rises to high levels, it indicates that the institutions are selling and are raising cash. When the institutional behaviour reaches extremes, the market will turn in a contrary direction. This indicator has often signaled major reversals and has also prevented investors from plunging into the market at the wrong time. The chart below shows you this indicator on a 10-day moving average. Page 19
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THE GLOBAL FUTURES LARGE BLOCK INDEX0,800,850,900,951,001,051,101,151,201,251,301,351,401,451,5098-08-1498-09-1198-10-0998-11-0698-12-0499-01-0199-01-2999-02-2699-03-2699-04-2399-05-2199-06-1899-07-1699-08-1399- 09-1099-10-0899-11-0599-12-0399-12-3100-01-2800-02-2500-03-2400-04-2100-05-1900-06-1600-07-1400-08-1100-09-0800-10-0600-11-0300-12-0100-12-2901-01-2601-02-2301-03-2301-04-2001-05-1 801-06-15© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE Short Term Trading Index (ARMS Index or TRIN) The Short Term Trading Index was invented over 30 years ago by Richard Arms and is also known as ARMS Index. It is calculated by dividing advancing issues by declining issues and advancing volume by declining volume. The first result is then divided by the latter and the result is the TRIN. If the index is above one, the average volume of stocks that fell on the NYSE was greater than the average volume of stocks that rose and vice versa. But it is most confirmative when it reaches extremes. This indicator rises sharply when the market is most depressed and selling is climaxing, and falls to very low levels during buying frenzies. Date Adv. Decl. A/D Upvol. Downvol. U/D Vol. TRIN 10- MA 13.06.01 1521 1561 0,97 384035 657357 0,58 1,67 14.06.01 927 2150 0,43 218634 997425 0,22 1,97 15.06.01 1437 1588 0,90 649006 904083 0,72 1,26 18.06.01 1309 1776 0,74 408501 682268 0,60 1,23 19.06.01 1498 1541 0,97 543321 615409 0,88 1,10 20.06.01 1823 1269 1,44 716273 610436 1,17 1,22 21.06.01 1738 1352 1,29 905813 547728 1,65 0,78 22.06.01 1243 1814 0,69 439011 722679 0,61 1,13 25.06.01 1301 1777 0,73 332607 682239 0,49 1,50 26.06.01 1778 1294 1,37 577414 605567 0,95 1,44 1,33 27.06.01 1811 1268 1,43 462680 657256 0,70 2,03 1,37 Page 20
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28.06.01 1882 1211 1,55 877241 423609 2,07 0,75 1,24 29.06.01 1938 1141 1,70 964950 759013 1,27 1,34 1,25 02.07.01 1598 1468 1,09 694667 399965 1,74 0,63 1,19 03.07.01 1592 1349 1,18 307258 304648 1,01 1,17 1,20 SHORT TERM TRADING INDEX WEEKLY (TRIN)0,700,901,101,3096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12- 0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE TRIN DAILY0,700,951,201,451,7096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1198-10-0698- 12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-15© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL Page 21
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Trend Indicator Why are some traders more successful than others? There are probably as many answers as there are traders out there. But you will undoubtedly agree that most of the money is being made in a trend, especially as far as options and futures are concerned. In options trading your biggest enemy by far is time. You need to have the patience and discipline to wait for a trend in the market in order to succeed on the long run. The same rule applies to any short-term oriented trader. The Global Futures Trend Index shows you clearly when to enter the market. This index is computed by dividing the daily highs by the sum of the daily highs and lows. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. As long as the readings of this index stay above the 80%-level there is a solid bullish trend in progress. Any weakness should be used to go long or to buy call options, preferably of stocks which are in a clear uptrend, or stock index options. Readings below 20 indicate a bearish trend. Strong days should be used to short stocks which are already weak, or to buy put options. As long as this indicator is in neutral territory don't do anything unless you are a savvy stockpicker, insider or a long-term value investor. THE GLOBAL FUTURES TREND INDEX0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,901,0096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198- 06-1698-08-1198-10-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-15© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISH TRENDTRADING RANGE MARKETBEARISH TREND Page 22
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CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) VIX computes volatility of four OEX contracts in two nearby months and is published daily by the CBOE. Options selected for this index are one call and one put just out of the money, and one call and one put just in the money, for each of the two front months of the OEX (S&P 100). Extremely high readings of VIX indicate bottoms and low readings tops. VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) WEEKLY0102030405096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499- 01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© Index Options Put/Call Ratio This indicator is calculated by dividing the weekly volume of S&P 100 call options by the weekly volume of S&P 100 put options. Big call volume appears at market tops and big put volume at bottoms. But call/put ratios of the indices like OEX and SPX are distorted and clouded by arbitrage and hedging and do therefore not always reflect true investor sentiment. Page 23
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CALL/PUT RATIO OEX0,350,550,750,951,1596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12 -0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL Call/Put Ratio This indicator is calculated by dividing the daily or weekly volume of call options by the daily or weekly volume of put options. Big call volume appears at market tops and big put volume at bottoms. Only CBOE equity options or all CBOE options should be used for this indicator. Call/put ratios of the indices like OEX and SPX are distorted and clouded by arbitrage and hedging and do therefore not always reflect true investor sentiment. The chart below shows you the weekly call/put ratio on a 4-week moving average to smooth out the swings. CALL/PUT RATIO ALL CBOE OPTIONS1,001,251,501,752,002,252,5096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-149 8-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comSELLBUY4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE Page 24
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CALL/PUT RATIO EQUITY OPTIONS1,502,002,503,0096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12 -0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio The Global Futures Put/Volume Ratio is a market sentiment indicator. It is calculated by dividing the volume of CBOE equity put options by the NYSE volume on a weekly basis and is interpreted in a contrary fashion. High readings signify extreme pessimism and fear, sometimes outright panic and indicate very often bottoms. Low readings of this indicator result from the anticipation of higher prices ahead and are therefore considered bearish. It is in our opinion more affirmative than the widely used put/call ratio which has gained widespread notice. THE GLOBAL FUTURES PUT/VOLUME RATIO1520253035404596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-049 9-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 25
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Smart Money Flow Index The Smart Money Flow Index has long been one of the best kept secrets of Wall Street. Everybody knows the importance of a closing price and other last hour indicators like the Closing Tick, which we publish daily for free on our portal. The Smart Money Flow Index is therefore calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart money waits until the end and they very often test the market before by shorting heavily just to see how the market reacts. Then they move in the big way. These heavy hitters also have the best possible information available to them and they do have the edge on all the other market participants. The Smart Money Indicator is calculated like the Advance-Decline Line. You can easily do it yourself if you don't want to pay our subscription rate of $1.50 weekly (based on a 6-month membership). Just start at any given day, subtract the price of the Dow at 10 AM from the previous day's close and add today's closing price. The result is plotted on a chart, together with the closing price of the Dow only. Whenever the Dow makes a high which is not confirmed by the SMI there is trouble ahead (chart below). Watch the divergence around June 1998, February 2000 and September 2000. Watching this indicator is like being on a plane and see the pilots jumping off with parachutes. This indicator is suitable only for investors with a longer time horizon. Such investors should buy blue chips when the indicator gives a buy signal, and sell and sell short on a divergence. SMART MONEY FLOW INDEX60008000100001200098-01-0298-01-3098-02-2798-03-2798-04-2498-05-2298-06-1998-07-1798-08-1498-09-1198-10-0998-11-0698-12-0499-01-0199-01-2999-02-2699-03-2699-04-2399-05-2199-06 -1899-07-1699-08-1399-09-1099-10-0899-11-0599-12-0399-12-3100-01-2800-02-2500-03-2400-04-2100-05-1900-06-1600-07-1400-08-1100-09-0800-10-0600-11-0300-12-0100-12-2901-01-2601-02-230 1-03-2301-04-2001-05-1801-06-15© WallStreetCourier.comDOW JONES CLOSESMART MONEY FLOW INDEXBearishDivergenceBearishDivergence BullishDivergence
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Global Futures Timing Indicator This indicator, like the Global Futures Bottom Indicator, is unknown until now to the investment community and is not available anywhere else. To our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. It was also developed by R. Koch of Wall Street Courier. The Global Futures Timing Indicator gives buy signals more often and is an excellent supplement to the Global Futures Bottom Indicator, especially when this one has readings between 6 and 25. It prevents investors from buying at the wrong time and it works also very well for option speculators and position traders because of its expert timing. Both indicators together should improve your trading substantially and will build you an estate in the years ahead. Just start buying good value stocks whenever the readings of the Global Futures Timing Indicator shrink to single digit numbers. This takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the widely quoted gurus are usually contrary at this time. Minus readings indicate an intermediate bottom. THE GLOBAL FUTURES TIMING INDICATOR-20,00-10,000,0010,0020,0030,0040,0050,0060,0070,0080,0096-01-1296-02-2396-04-0596-05-1796-06-2896-08-0996-09-2096-11-0196-12-1397-01-2497-03-0797-04-1897-05-3097-07-1197- 08-2297-10-0397-11-1497-12-2698-02-0698-03-2098-05-0198-06-1298-07-2498-09-0498-10-1698-11-2799-01-0899-02-1999-04-0299-05-1499-06-2599-08-0699-09-1799-10-2999-12-1000-01-2100-03-0 300-04-1400-05-2600-07-0700-08-1800-09-2900-11-1000-12-2201-02-0201-03-1601-04-2701-06-08© WallStreetCourier.comSTART BUYINGINTERMEDIATE BOTTOM Page 27
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Global Futures Market Timer Index The Global Futures Market Timer Index is a proprietary indicator of Global Futures and not available anywhere else. It was unknown until now to the investment community and to our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. The Global Futures Market Timer Index gives buy signals when it has readings below 1,00 and sell signals above 1,20. Start buying good value stocks whenever the readings of this index fall below 1,00. This takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the widely quoted gurus are usually contrary at this time. Place close stops when readings go above 1,20. THE GLOBAL FUTURES MARKET TIMER INDEX0,801,001,201,4096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0 499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© SELLBUY Page 28
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Global Futures Fear Indicator The Global Futures Fear Indicator is a proprietary indicator of Global Futures and not available anywhere else. It was unknown until now to the investment community and to our knowledge there is no previous mentioning of this indicator in any financial publication. The Global Futures Indicator gives buy signals when it has readings between 0 and 10. Start buying good value stocks whenever the readings of this index fall below 0. This takes of course a lot of guts because the opinions of the widely quoted gurus are usually contrary at this time. Unfortunately this indicator does not tell you when to sell. Set yourself a limit if you trade options or use trailing stop-loss orders if you are a long-term investor. THE GLOBAL FUTURES FEAR INDICATOR-5,000,005,0010,0015,0020,0025,0030,0035,0040,0096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798- 04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYPANIC Wall Street Courier Index The Wall Street Courier Index gives you a longer term picture of the stock market. Readings below 40 indicate a heavily oversold market which is ripe for an upturn. Readings above 50 flash a warning signal and you should use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your profits. This index serves longer-term oriented position traders very well. It is also a contrarian indicator and once again we would like to remind you that charts usually look most bullish at tops and most bearish at bottoms.This indicator has an excellent track record as you can see.
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THE WALL STREET COURIER INDEX0,350,400,450,500,550,6096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0 998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL Global Futures Trading Index The Global Futures Trading Index is a proprietary indicator of Global Futures. It shows bottoms and tops in trends and should be used together with the Global Futures Trend Index for exact timing. If the market is in a clear uptrend according to our trend index, go long if the Global Futures Trading Index shows a reading below 35. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Go short or buy puts if the index gives readings of 55 or above when the Global Futures Trend Index is below 20. Cover all your shorts if the index trades below 35 in a bearish trend. Please bear in mind that this index is a contrary indicator and therefore when these signals are given, they will be most likely contrary to most of the news of the moment and the opinions of the well known and most widely quoted gurus of Wall Street.
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THE GLOBAL FUTURES TRADING INDEX0,250,300,350,400,450,500,550,600,650,700,7596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498- 06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL Global Futures Speculation Index This indicator is calculated by simply adding the number of the weekly CBOE equity calls and puts together and dividing the result by the weekly NYSE volume. THE GLOBAL FUTURES SPECULATION INDEX0,600,801,001,201,4096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998- 12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 31
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Program Trading Program trading is the purchase or sale of at least 15 different stocks with a total value of $1 million or more. Some of Wall Streets biggest names are the players in this game and they are among others: Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, First Boston, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank Sec, and Nomura. There is a bullish tendency in the market whenever the Buy/Sell Ratio of program traders rises above 1,20 on a 4-week moving average. When program trading becomes excessive and accounts for more than about 25% of total volume on a 4-week moving average, the market became vulnerable in the past. NYSE PROGRAM TRADING - BUY/SELL RATIO0,600,801,001,201,401,601,8096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498- 10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com4 - WEEK MOVING AVERAGE PROGRAM TRADING IN % OF NYSE VOLUME 81420263296-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999- 03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com4- WEEK MOVING AVERAGE Page 32
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Global Futures Time Premium Index The Global Futures Time Premium Index is a sentiment indicator. The spread between the S&P 500 cash index and the S&P futures contracts (premium) shows high readings near market tops and low readings near market bottoms. The bold red lines on the chart below show you the futures contracts with the highest and lowest premiums of the last years on a 5-day moving average for comparison (6 months until expiration). If the index (premium of the nearby S&P 500 futures contract on a 5-day moving average) moves close to the upper line or above, bullish sentiment is prevailing which is a bearish indicator. The reverse is true if the index moves near or below the lower line; it shows extreme pessimism by futures traders and indicates bottoms. GLOBAL FUTURES TIME PREMIUM INDEX01020304050114112110108106104102100989694929088868482807876747270686664626058565452504846444240383634323028262422201816141108642© WallStreetCourier.comSP U1 Calendar Spread A good sentiment indicator in the past has been the Calendar Spread . This is the premium spread of the two nearby S&P 500 futures contracts (for instance the difference between the June SP and September SP contracts on a 5- day moving average). It shows if futures traders are extremely bearish or bullish. When speculation peaked in June 2000 and everybody was bullish, this indicator was as high as 23! Page 33
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DAILY CALENDAR SPREAD71115192399-01-0699-02-0399-03-0399-03-3199-04-2899-05-2699-06-2399-07-2199-08-1899-09-1599-10-1399-11-1099-12-0800-01-0500-02-0200-03-0100-03-2900-04-2600-05-2400-06-2100-07 -1900-08-1600-09-1300-10-1100-11-0800-12-0601-01-0301-01-3101-02-2801-03-2801-04-2501-05-2301-06-2001-07-18© WallStreetCourier.com5- DAY MOVING AVERAGE Odd-Lot Differential Index This index is simply calculated by subtracting the daily or weekly odd-lot sales from the daily or weekly odd-lot purchases. A 10-period moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. High readings appear near market tops and minus readings near bottoms. Introduced by Wall Street Courier, the Odd -Lot Differential Index indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock. These market participants are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator. ODD-LOT DIFFERENTIAL INDEX DAILY-1000010002000300002.01.200105.01.200110.01.200116.01.200119.01.200124.01.200129.01.200101.02.200106.02.200109.02.200114.02.20010.02.200123.02.200128.02.200105.03.200108.03.20 0113.03.200116.03.200121.03.200126.03.200129.03.200103.04.200106.04.200111.04.20117.04.200120.04.200125.04.200130.04.200103.05.200108.05.200111.05.200116.05.200121.05.200124.05.200 130.05.200104.06.200107.06.00112.06.200115.06.200120.06.200125.06.200128.06.2001© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGE Page 34
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Short Sales Statistics The NYSE Short Interest Ratio Every short seller anticipates a declining stock market. Investors sell short stock when they anticipate its price going lower. Sooner or later they must cover their short sales by buying back the stock. A profit is made if the stock is bought back at a lower price than when it was sold short. Indicators based on short selling statistics are an important part of technical analysis. Daily and weekly short sales are reported by the NYSE and published by financial sites all over the Internet. Market technicians watch the short selling activities of all the market participants very carefully. They distinguish between the odd-lots and the general public, the so called crowd, and the well informed NYSE members, specialists, floor traders and corporate insiders. When a large amount of short selling activity is occurring, market participants obviously expect prices to head lower. The NYSE Short Interest Ratio is therefore a long-term contrary opinion sentiment indicator. It is calculated by dividing the monthly short interest figure released by the New York Stock Exchange by the average volume of trading per day. These numbers get sometimes distorted by arbitrage transactions, but the short interest ratio is nevertheless a good indicator of optimism or pessimism in the market. Short sellers are potential buyers sooner or later and represent a lot of buying power when they have to scramble for cover in a sudden market turn. Contrary indicators require at least some degree of pessimism in order to function and therefore you should watch this ratio very carefully. THE NYSE SHORT INTEREST RATIO2468Jan96Mar96May96Jul.96Sep.96Nov.96Jan97Mar97May97Jul.97Sep.97Nov.97Jan98Mar98May98Jul.98Sep.98Nov.98Jan99Mar99May99Jul.99Sep.99Nov.99Jan00Mar00May00Jul.00Sep.00Nov.00Jan01M ar 01May 01© WallStreetCourier.com Page 35
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Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio The Odd-Lot Short Sales Ratio is calculated by dividing odd-lot short sales by the total number of short sales. For stocks, the generally accepted unit of trading is 100 shares (round lot). The Odd -Lot Short Ratio indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock (odd-lot). These market participants are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator. ODD-LOT SHORT SALES RATIO0,000150,00020,000250,00030,000350,00040,0004596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-249 8-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-1801-07-13© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL Floor Traders Short Sales Ratio The Floor Traders Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total floor traders short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. Floor traders are normally right about the trend of the market and if they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time. Page 36
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FLOOR TRADERS SHORT SALES RATIO0,000250,000450,000650,000850,001050,001250,001450,0016596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2 798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Specialist Short Sales Ratio Specialists are responsible for balancing incoming buy and sell orders to maintain orderly markets in the stocks in which they specialize. The Specialist Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total specialist short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. Specialists are normally right about the trend of the market and if they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time. SPECIALISTS SHORT SALES RATIO0,300,350,400,450,500,550,6096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498- 10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 37
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NYSE Member Short Sales Ratio The NYSE Members Report is compiled by the SEC and issued about two weeks after the applicable date. This indicator is a useful tool to determine what the experts are doing. The NYSE Member Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total member short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. Members of the NYSE are professionals and normally right about the trend of the market. If they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time. NYSE MEMBER SHORT SALES RATIO0,450,50,550,60,6596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12 -0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Public Short Sales Ratio The NYSE Members Report is compiled by the SEC and issued about two weeks after the applicable date. This indicator is a useful tool to determine what the public or the so called crowd is doing. The Public Short Sales Ratio is computed by dividing the total public short sales by total short sales. A moving average should be applied to smooth out the swings. The public is usually wrong about the trend of the market. If they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for an upturn. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market is near a correction, especially if specialists short sales increase at the same time.
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PUBLIC SHORT SALES RATIO0,350,40,450,50,5596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12 -0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© Odd-Lot Balance Index This index is calculated by dividing daily or weekly odd-lot purchases by odd-lot sales. For stocks, the generally accepted unit of trading is 100 shares (round lot). The Odd -Lot Balance Index indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock (odd-lot). These market participants are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator. ODD-LOT BALANCE INDEX DAILY0,801,001,201,401,601,8031.10.200007.11.200014.11.200021.11.200029.11.200006.12.200013.12.200020.12.200028.12.200005.01.20112.01.200122.01.200129.01.200105.02.200112.02.200120 .02.200127.02.200106.03.200113.03.200120.03.200127.03.200103.04.200110.04.00118.04.200125.04.200102.05.200109.05.200116.05.200123.05.200131.05.200107.06.200114.06.200121.06.200128. 06.200106.07.200113.0.200120.07.200127.07.200103.08.200110.08.200117.08.2001© WallStreetCourier.com10-DAY MOVING AVERAGESELLBUY Page 39
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Odd-Lot/Floor Trader Short Sales Ratio This index is calculated by dividing the weekly odd-lot short sales by the weekly short sales by floor traders for better comparison. Introduced by Wall Street Courier, the Odd -Lot Short/Floor Trader Short Ratio indicates the market sentiment of small investors who purchase less than 100 shares of a stock (odd-lot). Unlike the more sophisticated floor traders, the odd-lotters are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator. ODD-LOT /FLOOR TRADERS SHORT SALES RATIO0,600,650,700,750,800,850,900,9596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1 498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL Global Futures Odd-Lot/Specialist Short Sales Ratio This index is calculated by dividing the weekly odd-lot short sales by the weekly specialists short sales for better comparison. A 4-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Unlike the well informed specialists, the odd-lotters are usually wrong about the direction of the market and this indicator is therefore considered to be a contrary opinion sentiment indicator. High readings indicate heavy shorting by odd-lot investors and therefore bottoms, extremely low readings tops. Page 40
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ODD-LOT/SPECIALISTS SHORT SALES RATIO 0,00250,00550,00850,01150,014596-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10- 0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISHBEARISH Global Futures Public/Member Short Sales Ratio This index is calculated by dividing the weekly public short sales by the weekly member short sales for better comparison. A 4-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Members of the NYSE are professionals and normally right about the trend of the market. If they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public short sales increase at the same time. High readings indicate heavy shorting by the public (the so called crowd) and therefore bottoms, low readings indicate tops. PUBLIC/MEMBER SHORT SALES RATIO 0,600,801,001,2096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-0 1-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISHBEARISH Page 41
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Public/Specialists Short Sales Ratio The Specialist/Public Short Sales Ratio is a market sentiment indicator. It is calculated by dividing the volume of the weekly short sales made by the public (non members) by the weekly short sales made by stock exchange specialists (members). A 4-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. The public is usually wrong about the trend of the market. If they are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for an upturn. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market is near a correction, especially if specialists short sales increase at the same time. High readings indicate heavy shorting by the public (the so called crowd) and therefore bottoms, low readings indicate tops. PUBLIC/SPECIALISTS SHORT SALES RATIO 0,701,101,501,9096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-0 1-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.comBULLISHBEARISH Page 42
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Global Futures NYSE Member Trading Indicator The NYSE Members Report is compiled by the SEC and issued about two weeks after the applicable date. This indicator is a useful tool to determine what the experts are doing. If specialists, floor traders and other members of the New York Stock Exchange are shorting heavily the market is usually ripe for a correction. On the other hand, if they are doing relatively little shorting it is most likely that the market has hit bottom, especially if public- and odd-lot short sales increase at the same time. Even if data are not quite up-to date, they are nevertheless an excellent indicator of the prevailing sentiment in the market. The formula of the Global Futures NYSE Member Trading Indicator is proprietary and we also use special moving averages to push the tops and bottoms forward an extra two weeks or so. THE NYSE MEMBER TRADING INDICATOR-0,09-0,07-0,05-0,03-0,010,010,030,050,0796-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498 -06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18BULLISHBEARISH© WallStreetCourier.com Page 43
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Sentiment Indicators Investor Sentiment The principles of Contrarian Investing hold that when the vast majority of people agree on anything, they are generally wrong. Otherwise no market would function because there is simply no minority with money enough to make a majority rich. A true contrarian, therefore, will first try to determine what the majority are doing and then will act in the opposite direction. Market Vane, AAII and Investors Intelligence are all contrary opinion indicators. A unique feature of Market Vane's Bullish Consensus numbers is a weighting formula applied to the various market letters. More weight is given to letters with a larger following and less weight to those with fewer readers. Each week a poll of market letters is taken to determine the degree of bullishness or bearishness among futures professionals. The theory is that when a significant number of participants are bullish, they are already positioned on the long side and there is little potential buying power left. If most participants are bearish, selling pressure has reached an extreme and prices will reverse to the upside. BULL/BEAR RATIO MARKET VANE2040608096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-29 99-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-1801-07-13© WallStreetCourier.com10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGESELLBUY Thanks to the Internet, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) now polls its 170,000 members daily. Respondents indicate how they feel about the
Page 44
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
market's performance in the next six months. The chart below shows the number of bulls divided by the number of bears. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. High readings appear near market tops and low readings near bottoms. BULL/BEAR RATIO AAII0,601,101,602,102,603,103,604,1096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-14 98-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL Since 1963, Investors Intelligence has been compiling data on the opinions of publishers of market letters. They conduct a weekly poll of about 130 market newsletter writers and calculate the percentage who are bullish, bearish or expecting a short-term correction. The resulting index shows that the advisory services follow the trend of equity prices by becoming most bullish near market tops and most bearish around market bottoms. BULL/BEAR RATIO INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE0,801,201,602,002,4096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-1 0-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBUYSELL Page 45
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Commitments of Traders Report The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides inside information about purchases and sales of futures contracts. The largest players in each market are required to disclose their positions to the CFTC on a daily basis and this report is released weekly on Friday afternoon (the reporting requirement varies by commodity). These traders are separated into Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators. The positions of Small Traders are calculated by subtracting the total of contracts held by the reporting groups from all the contracts outstanding (Small Traders are not required to report their positions). Commercial Hedgers hold a significant informational edge over other traders as far as fundamental supply-and-demand statistics are concerned. They tend to be early, but they are usually right on the long run, quite contrary to the small traders. Extreme divergences in long and short positions of Small Traders, Large Speculators and Commercial Hedgers have proven to be reliable indicators of important trend changes. In such cases it is not advisable to bet against the Commercial Hedgers. All other patterns are meaningless. The following charts show you the positions of these three groups of market participants. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings. Three different charts are available for each commodity: • Short positions of all market participants (Large Speculators, Commercial Hedgers, Small Traders) on a percentage basis. • Short positions of Small Traders only. Significant changes in those numbers give you an insight about prevailing sentiment.. • The Long/Short Ratio of Small Traders. This chart is computed by dividing the long and short positions of Small Traders. High readings indicate heavy buying by Small Traders which is bearish. Page 46
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
SOYBEANS - SHORT POSITIONS0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,7096-11-2697-01-2197-03-1897-05-1397-07-0897-09-0297-10-2897-12-2398-02-1798-04-1498-06-0998-08-0498-09-2998-11-2499-01-1999-03-1699-05-1199- 07-0699-08-3199-10-2699-12-2100-02-1500-04-1100-06-0600-08-0100-09-2600-11-2101-01-1601-03-1301-05-0801-07-03© WallStreetCourier.comCOMMERCIAL HEDGERLARGE SPECULATORSMALL TRADER10-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE SOYBEANS - SMALL TRADERS SHORT POSITION0,150,200,250,300,350,4096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1198-1 0-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-1501-07-10© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL SOYBEANS - SMALL TRADERS LONG/SHORT RATIO0,600,801,001,201,401,601,802,0096-01-0296-02-2796-04-2396-06-1896-08-1396-10-0896-12-0397-01-2897-03-2597-05-2097-07-1597-09-0997-11-0497-12-3098-02-2498-04-2198-06-1698-08-1 198-10-0698-12-0199-01-2699-03-2399-05-1899-07-1399-09-0799-11-0299-12-2800-02-2200-04-1800-06-1300-08-0800-10-0300-11-2801-01-2301-03-2001-05-1501-07-10© WallStreetCourier.comBUYSELL Page 47
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Appendix The enclosed charts of the indices have exactly the same time span as the charts in our e-book. You will therefore easily be able you to verify the reliability of each indicator. Dow Jones Weekly Close DOW JONES WEEKLY CLOSE5000600070008000900010000110001200096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-0 8-1498-10-0998-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com S&P 500 Weekly Close S & P 500 WEEKLY CLOSE600800100012001400160096-01-0596-03-0196-04-2696-06-2196-08-1696-10-1196-12-0697-01-3197-03-2897-05-2397-07-1897-09-1297-11-0798-01-0298-02-2798-04-2498-06-1998-08-1498-10-099 8-12-0499-01-2999-03-2699-05-2199-07-1699-09-1099-11-0599-12-3100-02-2500-04-2100-06-1600-08-1100-10-0600-12-0101-01-2601-03-2301-05-18© WallStreetCourier.com Page 48
The E-Book of Technical Market Indicators www.wallstreetcourier.com
Risk Statement HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.” TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THIS RISK STATEMENT APPLIES TO ANY ILLUSTRATION OF PROFIT AND LOSS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS PUBLICATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT STOP LOSS ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT LOSSES OR LOCK IN PROFITS. DEPENDING UPON MARKET CONDITIONS, STOP LOSS ORDERS MAY BE EXECUTED AT PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW OR ABOVE THE SPECIFIED STOP PRICE.
Page 49

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