posted
And the good news will start comming when they start releasing subscription numbers. Like most start ups it'll be slow at first but they will find out what they need to do to draw customers & that's when we should see a pretty steady climb much like SIRI.
posted
anybody else read this? I think it's way too optimistic however if it does only a fraction of this I'll be pretty happy!
Written by trade2one Apr 4th 2004.
One Year projection: Stock price = $73.00
I actually wrote this two weeks ago, however, now that more figures are exposed it compelled me to post this.
Corrections and more accurate figures are welcome. Hopefull the Pro Jwhite will get ahold of this and revise accordingly.
Here is my best guess to why.
REVENUES:
Let's assume that GZFX only sells 20,000 memberships per month. That is $18.50 x 20,000 = $370000 x 12 = $4,440,000 per year(this is based on us only obtaining 240,000 customers within a year at the lowest subscriber rate). This represents a revision to the short term subscriber level of 100k users by year end predicted by GZFX. However, as media exposure kicks in, brand recognition is established and popularity propels user incentive to join, numbers in this figure may be revised, probably upward.
Valuation:
1. Memberships Since pps is based on future profits we will use the $18.50 figure. $18.50 x 20,000 = $370,000 per month.
$370,000 x 12 = $4,440,000 per year
2. Growth New Distribution Center Costs could range from an additional 20-40% increase to the bottom line. Let's take the 40% figure because GZFX will be new to areas without much leverage at first for strong negotiations.
.40 x $4,440,000 = $1,776,000 Note: this figure will come down once they become more efficient
3. Overhead/Distribution My best guess, the distribution cost may be around $1 per CD initially and .50 cents once volume kicks in.Lets assume the average user will utilize around 10 CD's per month based on the "3 at a time" rule for 18.50 3 / 30(avg # days in a month pr year) = 10 cds per month at $1 = $10 mth per subscriber
$18.50 x 20,000 x 12 = $4,440,000 total revenue $10 x 20,000 x 12 = $2,400,000 cost basis per subscribers
Total costs (growth and maintaining current subscriber base) = $ 4,176,000
Earnings = Total Revenue - Total costs Earnings = $4,440,000 - $4,176,000 = $264,000
Dillution: Total outstanding shares = roughly 540 Million.
Earnings per share = $264,000/540,000,000 = 4.88 per share.
Note: This is only taking into consideration the lowest subscriber fee, not any of the other subscriber plans. Assuming only 20K per month subscription rate. There is also buzz of our service being offered in Europe (highly likely with that as homebase for Virgin) plus shipping to Canada as well. Our subscriber base could grow exponentially once the word is out at full steam.
Use a very conservative P/E = 15. This is very conservative for an internet growth stock (think amazon, ebay,etc.)
pps = P/E x Earnings per share pps = 15 x 4.88 = $73
posted
Correct me if I am wrong here, but I don't think his numbers are right....look at the eps estimate. 240,000/540,000,000 is not 4.88, it is .000488888888888, and therefore 15*.00048888888 is equal to .0073333333.
A lot of things are actually messed up with that. look at his Overhead/Distribution cost estimates. If he is thinking that distribution costs are 1.00 and is applying this to each movie each person rents, he didn't take any overhead into account. I honestly do not think these numbers can be nearly correct. Think about it, all of the execs and employees must be paid accountants and Information tech and everything else. These are indirect costs, which would almost definately be applied to the number of subscribers. The only thing that would change with the number of movies sent are the variable costs....which are shipping costs. I am sure the hours the employees at the distrubution centers work are based on the number of subscribers...as subscribers increase the number of employees increase (or hours worked).
Gameznflix is at a crucial point. They need to monitor the cash inflow and not screw things up. If you have noticed, NFLX waited until now to air a tv program and are losing a lot of money by airing the campaign and offering one free month. I say GZFX is at a crucial point. You all know that..we need subscribers. I am 99% positive, that no matter how rough the ride is over the next couple of months, once the summer ad campaign airs, things will pick up BIG TIME.
One thing I noticed is the envelope that gzfx sends its movies in. I wish they would personalize the envelopes a little more like Netflix has. Not that it matters, but it would be better I feel. Although that is one extra cost they don't need to incur at this moment.
I don't know if I got my point across it is late and I don't know if I even finished thoughts. Hopefully you all understand this.
[This message has been edited by glfpimp (edited April 04, 2004).]
posted
20,000 per month...please. Those numbers are rediculous. NETFLIX DIDNT MAKE ANY MONEY FOR 4 YEARS PEOPLE. AND THEY HAD 100% OF THE MARKET SHARE. GAMEZNFLIX IS TRYING TO STEAL MARKET SHARE FROM A FLAT OUT BETTER COMPANY. You might say, oh but gameznflix has games too!! Not that big of a deal, honestly. I am glad that some shareholders are switching from nexflix to gameznflix....but netflix is still a far better company. A dollar per month more for a website that works and a proven company..yes please. The above analysis is rediculous to say the best about it.
After he took flak for his rediculous calculations he posted this:
"LOL, the numbers were there to be adjusted. Base no bearing the true PPS on any of the calculations provided. My bad and have seen the errors of my ways. Please accept my humble apologies."
This is a great company guys. BUT IT IS NOT, AND WILL NOT EVEN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BEING AT NETFLIX'S PRICE FOR 5 YEARS+, IF EVER.
I am trying to avoid new people coming in and buying, then being disappointed after beleiving some of this stuff. This is a gamexnflix board, not a netflix board, you dont even need to mention that company, expecially its pps.
[This message has been edited by roger7485 (edited April 04, 2004).]
posted
i dont post here usually anymore to often.. but after seeing WHIZKNOCKS post i was really worried... first off whiznock could not be MORE WRONG if he tried... those numbers are ridiculous ... r u not tkaing into account the 500million sharse outstanding... do u realize that 75 dollars a share would have 2 mean this company would be worth 80 billion dollars.... im sorry but u are a M O R O N... stop posting here ... u give allstocks a bad name and are a horrible pumper... i hope the newbies dont read ur garbage... i love the company.. but never with this OS will gzfz reach past 50 cents ... if that... with an RS of about 15:1 we mite get 4 bux... thats being verrrrrrry optimistic and assuming a very high PE ratio... plz stop posting that garbage here .. that belongs at RB
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THIS IS GREAT COMPANY.I HAD NETFLIX FOR MORE THEN YEAR AND I CANCEL IT YESTRDAY.GOING TO TRY THISONE.LOVE HAVING MONEY IN THIS STOCK.
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The market's interpretation on stock prices is in many instances unique to every company. Whiz simply made a math error in calculating eps, but the stock price of any company reflects far more than P/E divided by eps. That formula can be used as a gage, but the market reponds to sales, appeal, stability, and exciting events (or negative events in cases of bad news) to determine the pps. Examples of AMZN and SIRI are 2 of MANY with large net losses that still exhibited pps growth and strength.
I do believe that over the course of this calendar year, Whiz's monthly subscriber number of 20,000 will be reached and likely surpassed. So his estimated gross sales figures along with consumer sentiment and advertising buzz may well push this stock price similar to SIRI, EAG or HIET over the next 12 months. No, not to 70+/share lol...but certainly to levels at multiples of where it closed on Friday.
[This message has been edited by Bo14172 (edited April 04, 2004).]
quote:Originally posted by Bo14172: The market's interpretation on stock prices is in many instances unique to every company. Whiz simply made a math error in calculating eps, but the stock price of any company reflects far more than P/E divided by eps. That formula can be used as a gage, but the market reponds to sales, appeal, stability, and exciting events (or negative events in cases of bad news) to determine the pps. Examples of AMZN and SIRI are 2 of MANY with large net losses that still exhibited pps growth and strength.
I do believe that over the course of this calendar year, Whiz's monthly subscriber number of 20,000 will be reached and likely surpassed. So his estimated gross sales figures along with consumer sentiment and advertising buzz may well push this stock price similar to SIRI, EAG or HIET over the next 12 months. No, not to 70+/share lol...but certainly to levels at multiples of where it closed on Friday.
[This message has been edited by Bo14172 (edited April 04, 2004).]
Just so everybody is clear on this, Whiz did not write that post. Go look at it again and read the first couple sentences, especially the one that says "Posted by..."
And yes, I do think we will reach the 20,000 subscribers per month. We will start out slow and that number will grow exponentially almost, to a point, then the growth should continue a slow upward trend.
Our next biggest competitor will be wal-mart (if and when they start their internet movie site) and that could be a major problem. I have heard that Wal-Mart plans to charge around $14 per month, and they will have advertising out their #####... So hopefully this thing takes off before that happens.
posted
Walmart has actually had their internet movie site. I tried it like a year ago and at that time they only had like one center to ship from (GA) and never had anything to really choose from. The only difference I see now is that they let your rent just 2 movies for around $15. I canceled that then went to netflix canceled netflix and went to gameznflix And am so far happy with their service. Although having their shipping center approx 30 minutes away is a plus to!
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Does anyone know if Gamezone offers a gift subscription-style offer(something for the grandparents to buy for the grandkids)? I'm just thinking that it would make an excellent and convenient gift, and should help out their subscription rate substantially.
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quote:Originally posted by Bo14172: The market's interpretation on stock prices is in many instances unique to every company. Whiz simply made a math error in calculating eps, but the stock price of any company reflects far more than P/E divided by eps. That formula can be used as a gage, but the market reponds to sales, appeal, stability, and exciting events (or negative events in cases of bad news) to determine the pps. Examples of AMZN and SIRI are 2 of MANY with large net losses that still exhibited pps growth and strength.
I do believe that over the course of this calendar year, Whiz's monthly subscriber number of 20,000 will be reached and likely surpassed. So his estimated gross sales figures along with consumer sentiment and advertising buzz may well push this stock price similar to SIRI, EAG or HIET over the next 12 months. No, not to 70+/share lol...but certainly to levels at multiples of where it closed on Friday.
[This message has been edited by Bo14172 (edited April 04, 2004).]
Bo I saw the math mistake as well but I didn't write that piece. Just wanted to share it with others because much of it may come to pass.
More to the point Bo, I agree with you about SIRI. I made a mint there & sold too early. That lesson will serve me well with this stock because the same dynamic is in place. Very successful prior launch of competitor & as you pointed out genuine potential!
quote:Originally posted by rxs0005: "We have just started on a affiliate program that is similar in nature to that of Netflix but with merchandise as well..... Please email me if you have any further questions at ir@gameznflix.com"
I am ALL over this once they get it launched. GamezNFlix.com will be promoted heavily at worldvillage.com, dealofday.com, and freebitz.com, among others.
posted
Anybody know if and when we will be getting some positive pr, or numbers telling us how well GZFX is doing? This darn thing keeps falling and that doesn't make me happy!
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I REALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS TO STAY IN THE .15-.16 RANGE FOR YOU GUYS. I REMEMBER WHEN YOU ALL REALLY STARTED GETTING HAPPY ABOUT THIS ONE FROM .024.
OUTLOOK IS STILL GOOD AT .115 AND AN EXCELLENT EXIT FROM .024
posted
this can go a bit lower... look at the previous trends... if u are a newbie do not listen to WHIZKNOCK... that guy knows nothing and thinks he knows something... take a look at his previous posts.. all r just striate up wrong... gzfx is a good buy below .105 ,,, we r trading on still no revenue.. only on expecations on taking a little bit of revenue from netflix
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quote:Originally posted by stockguyDD: this can go a bit lower... look at the previous trends... if u are a newbie do not listen to WHIZKNOCK... that guy knows nothing and thinks he knows something... take a look at his previous posts.. all r just striate up wrong... gzfx is a good buy below .105 ,,, we r trading on still no revenue.. only on expecations on taking a little bit of revenue from netflix
You're probably right. I'll wait til I do any more buying. If you're right I'll end up just getting more for my money!
posted
I figured it'd get knocked back to .125 or so, but I have to admit that this is more of a retrace than I was guessing. Still, I look at both GZFX and WNMI as having a large stable of people *wanting* to buy and just need a bit of good news to retrace up fairly quickly. Both seem to be somewhat heavily PR-driven. I think both will recover and gain from here, despite their ups and downs. Both will probably need a good PR or two before they make any major headway though
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If any new PR comes out this wk, those who didn't buy on these unexpected lows may be kicking themselves. The pps may be a bit unpredictable at first considering the company just recently launched it's product, website, advertising, etc but sentiment for GZFX is generally positive all around the msg boards. People have been impressed with the promised date of the launch and how it was kept. The ads went ahead as scheduled with announcements of more to come throughout the rest of the year! I joined up and am pleased with the service thus far. The web site will undergo upgrades and bug fixes along the way too to be sure. Monday was QBID's day it seems and I'm glad for them. GZFX will run soon too, more pr, more word of mouth, I have my limit order set for .17 and some for .18, will rebuy even more on the next dip following this one.
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These are statistically sound numbers and are quite significant. The word is definitely getting out. Wait until they start the affiliate program. If they offer a decent commission or bounty, you will see hundreds of game web site promoting them. Thats when the cash flow really starts taking off.
quote:Originally posted by budgie: i hate seeing this go down, but be confident, i see this going to $5
Well, I think $4 if you use Netflix as a model and compare the outstanding shares. But who knows, I hope with the Dell guy, we can get our message out better then NFLX. He did wonders for Dell.
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And am so far happy with their service. Although having their shipping center approx 30 minutes away is a plus to!
