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northernprophet
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In Asia, amongst the wealthy Chinese, gold lost its lustre during the 97-2001 doldrums.
The rich Chinese started buying platinum jewellery and they still do today.
The trend is starting in Europe. Basically, if you can afford to wear platinum jewellery, you are showing others that you are wealthy.
So the imbalance is mostly from jewellery demand.

Also, nobody sell BTP until Buffalo Gulch results are announced.
In 2000, 2 weeks before a buyout from De Beers, Winspear announced they would be doing a dilutionary financing with BMO Nesbitt. Caused the last hangers on to sell their shares. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON.


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northernprophet
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Hi blue, I have not given up on my theory that BTP is understating their gold assets. If Buffalo Gulch results are bad then I admit I am wrong.

The Aug 24 news was so bad and awful, it can't be true. $250,000 expl. in each of the first two years. Why do the deal without knowing what Buffalo Gulch holds?
WAIT for Buffalo Gulch results, that is all I ask.
The Aug 24 NR was pathetic, bad, awful news.
(If the gold assets are worth optioning for that low a price....)
The stock should have sold off on high volume, yet it is strengthening.

This is the final shakeout.


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blue_in_MI
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ummm - NP, I guess we have to "agree to disagree" again. if their gold assets were great, they wouldn't be peddling them for a song. and potentially even more sad - maybe they *are* good, but they have not much choice but to dump them anyway to raise money.

unfortunately, i don't see any other way to paint it except that this was a disastrous summer for BTP. they spent all of their time digging 8 holes in properties they appear to be giving up on, and ignored the properties they are going to hold. again, it's not all their fault - i wouldn't have guessed either that Pd would crash to $200. but - they certainly didn't help themselves out this summer through sharp management techniques. very disappointing all in all. i still believe that the management at one time knew what they were doing, and that their montana properties are promising. but - seems almost like a case of "right place, wrong time, not enough in the coffers". also, i wonder how much of the montana properties they are going to be able to afford to keep. it's hard to envision a scenario where their property holdings don't shrink, i'm just not sure how they can afford to hold on to them all.

i'll probably just hold BTP, because I don't have many shares and am already down so much. however, since you have a sizeable investment still NP, i would seriously consider phasing out part of your holdings. while it's painful to take a loss, honestly it wouldn't surprise me to see this go lower. i agree that junior mining companies are beaten down and undervalued. but BTP is going to have to generate excitement in order to drive their share price up again, and i'm not sure how this management is going to do that, especially in the face of shrinking property holdings.

again, i sincerely hope i'm wrong, but these certainly are not the best of times for BTP.


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northernprophet
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I am prepared to go down with this ship.
Also, I will not give up on the gold properties until the Buffal oGulch results come back and are bad.
If the results are "materially good", the deal will be nullified by the regulators.

Technically, BTP is building a base.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited August 30, 2004).]


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northernprophet
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I am also waiting to see how much of the Montana properties they keep. Their property payments are always made on August 31. Last year it cost them $90,000 US to keep their 14,000 acres.
The payments are made to the Montana Bureau of Land Management.

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blue_in_MI
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well, i agree with you on one thing now NP - the key question is, how much of the Montana properties will they keep? that is *THE* question for BTP now.

the gold thing is dead and buried imho - not an issue, or they wouldn't have sold it for diddlysquat. i don't really see why the buffalo gulch results mean much of anything at this point, frankly.

BTP either had no plan or a stupid plan for this summer, exacerbated by the collapse of Pt. I am guessing that, if they have any brain cells left, they will try to keep as much of the Montana properties as possible, and pray that next spring and summer that Pt is $350/oz instead of $210. BTP is pretty much dead with Pt at $210. they've left themselves little other choice except to pack it in for the year, lick their wounds and contemplate their missteps, and hope for a Pt recovery next spring to generate enough of a runup in BTP stock price that they can actually finance a dig again.

I still believe BTP has excellent Montana properties, the 2 questions are (1) how much can they afford to keep, and (2) what will happen to the price of Pt in the next 8 months?

I still could see a possible takeover by a company with actual real money in their coffers, but - hard to say, that'd just be pure speculation.

If BTP management has any shred of dignity, they will forego salary for this lousy year. If these guys start granting themselves bonuses with the little cash BTP has left after all their bumbling this year, they truly have no shame.


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blue_in_MI
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none too pretty BTP news out this am -
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040831/315400_1.html

some of it is easy to translate from -

"Activity during the second quarter has emphasised thorough compilation and reinterpretation of information available from earlier exploration"

"thorough compilation and reinterpretation"

...obviously translates to...

"we didn't do much real digging"

what i find most disturbing about this PR (other than the fact that they are down to $52k working capital) is the one about:

"a stock option compensation expense of $353,679 in the quarter ending March 31, 2004"

do you know who this was, NP?


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northernprophet
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At least they seemed to be saying they are going to drill in the third quarter.
Drilling the VEZ is good news.

As far as the stock option goes, they didn't actually go out and pay someone that money, but the options that they grant (like all companies do) are counted as an expense.
I am not an accountant.
The company issued some more options after the annual meeting. The amount of options out is no different than any other junior company.
The options were granted to many people, not just one person.

Keith Minty, the CEO is getting $10,000/month, these guys have been pretty good with their money.

Technically, the stock is base building, and they are going to drill Montana.
Not bad news.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited August 31, 2004).]


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blue_in_MI
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$10k a month is highway robbery, for what little minty has done this summer. so that's $120k per year, for 8 holes, or $15k a hole. for properties they basically ended up abandoning anyway. i paid my 11-year old $3 a hole to dig holes to plant forsythia along my back fence, and it's still growing, not abandoned. i think i got a better deal than BTP. minty "has emphasised thorough compilation and reinterpretation of information" this year, that's about it - and that's not enough, at least for me.

NP, i don't understand your need to go down with the ship. you have a sizeable fraction invested, in fact - more than the entire rest of their cash on hand. at least try to sell off *some*, if people willing to pay .15-.16, to help manage your risk. remember - don't "fall in love with a stock", it doesn't pay. i just read "the lusitania - an epic tragedy", a good book. the captain chose *not* to go down with the ship, you have that same choice. you *know* that there is a good chance they are going to have to abandon some Montana properties due to lack of cash, which the markets will likely not take kind to when the PR comes out.

anyway, that's jmho. this is way too risky and speculative a stock to have more than 1% or so of one's total assets in. we're basically gambling now that Pd will nearly double in the next year, just for BTP to stay afloat. possible, but - not something I'd bet on with more than a small amount.


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blue_in_MI
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one other thing i agree with you on NP - *finally* drilling the VEZ. dunno what the heck took them so long, but - that was the one good piece of good news from that PR, imho. if they would have drilled it earlier on and had good results - then the pps would be up now, they wouldn't have had to give up the gold properties, and they could have instead done a reasonable financing and not be left with $52k in cash. let's just hope they find something mighty good in the VEZ.

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northernprophet
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I still believe, and this stock has not had a distribution cycle since 2001.
I have been playing with the stock recently.
Whenever I put in a bid, I do not get filled, and when I put 5000 or 10000 shares up for sale, I get bought out.
I have another $7000 that I will put in at the right time.(Maybe next week)

I believe we will see some action on BTP and many other juniors after labour day.


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blue_in_MI
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this is what bugs me about trying to buy Pd: currently kitco lists the spot price as $201. however, if you actually try to *buy* from kitco, they list their "spot price" as $216. and then they (understandably) mark it up from there as they sell bars or in their pool account. i understand and don't mind paying at least a little markup, of course kitco etc have to make $. however, it bugs me that i have to pay a markup over and above a fabricated "spot price" that is not the *real* spot price. the unfortunate thing about buying Pt over gold is that the "spread" is much higher, also. there is only $3.50 between the buy and sell prices in kitco's gold pool. however, there is a $197.50/$220 spread on their Pt pool. that is an 11% spread, which is way too big for my tastes. Pt has to go up by $23 before i make a dime buying then selling. still looking for a better site to buy actual metals/pool-Pt... i can't believe Pt will stay at $200, but - i'm not willing to immediately be down 11% to test that theory
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blue_in_MI
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oops, i meant Pd, not Pt, in the above post
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blue_in_MI
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Pd $194, ouch! looks oversold to me, if i could find a real website to buy i would go in for some. kitco's pool is 190/213 though which is just unacceptable - an 11% spread! 5% is reasonable for them to make $, but 11% is absurd - i'm just not going to hand them that much money for doing practically nothing.
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northernprophet
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Yes, I really like palladium, and I believe the metals/mining sector will have a healthy run starting soon and lasting until the early spring.

I just cannot believe how dead all the markets still are after labour day. I thought the volumes would pick up.
The DOW is on its 5th longest sideways streak in 20 years.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 10, 2004).]


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mdec
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Hi Northerprophet

Is possible for you to post your e-mail?

Thank you
MdeC


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northernprophet
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Hi MdeC. My e-mail is:
barcor_133@hotmail.com

The last time I was in a position in a stock in a straight line pattern was Pacific Rim 4 years ago. I got sucked in by all the glowing reviews in the northern miner.
The stock was around $4.00, it gapped down to $1.50, then eventually went to 15 cents.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 10, 2004).]


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blue_in_MI
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not surprisingly, .12. next stop: .10.
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northernprophet
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This is depressing.
If the Buffalo Gulch results are awful, why don't they just release them and get it over with?
In Edmonton this week, we got a couple of inches of snow, that is nothing compared to what it may be like at 7500 feet in Montana in mid-October.
The VEZ is a great target, but why are they waiting till October to drill?

I am still hanging on.
Former CEO Ted Tomasovich put lots of his own money into this company at much higher prices.($1 million U.S. convertible debenture at 35 cents) He must have had a good reason.


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blue_in_MI
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uh, who cares about the idaho results? they let 'em go for a cup of coffee. a completely moot point at this juncture.

i'm sorry NP, but - the fat lady i think has sung on this one. i truly feel bad for you, i tried to warn you: sell at .17 if you could get it. i'll repeat: sell at .14 if you can get it, this is going lower.

what a mess and a shame: such potential, such a waste. worst stock i ever invested in, wiped out a ton of ALMI profits for me. hard to imagine a worse summer than BTP has had. i really feel bad for you, NP - i know you had a lot in this one. i am sorry, and i hope you can make it back over time.


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northernprophet
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I have not given up on this one at all. No need to feel sorry for me, I have put up big bucks before, and it has turned up good and bad. I know the risks, it is the people who are margined up to their eyeballs in Nortel that I worry about.

Blue, I have been following Canadian pennies for a long time, and the stories I could tell.

The final chapter for BTP has not been written yet.

I will admit we are getting close to crunch time, and next week will be important.

We'll see.


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Hope you are right NP I am in BTP @ .20 and averaged down @ .14. May have to put in more if it drops under .10. Sooner or later the Montana assets will give this some value. I'll wait it out.
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northernprophet
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Hi BCMouser and blue and anyone else who cares to listen.

BTP is the most tightly held stock I know. The past 2 months there has been maybe 700,000 shares traded.No dumping going on here.

The news they have put out is as BAD as possible.(BAD, AWFUL, HORRIBLE)
Even the headlines. "Beartooth loses $650,000 in first two quarters."
EVERY exploration company loses money. There is no revenue coming in when you are an explorer.

There is something up here, besides Montana.
BTPs Montana assets have the goods, that is why BTP tracked the palladium price last March.
Unfortunately ,we need to see palladium over $300/ounce for a drill program to have any investor appeal.
Also, starting a drill program in October is ridiculous. I cannot take them seriously when they say they are going to start drilling in October.

I will not give up on my theory the sale of the gold properties was a fakeout until the Buffalo Gulch results are announced and they are awful.
Does anyone have a theory on why they have not announced the results yet?

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 11, 2004).]

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 11, 2004).]


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northernprophet
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OK, the Buffalo Gulch results are bad, now I can move on.
I originally bought BTP for their Montana assets anyway.

I now hope they drill Montana this year, but it is getting late.
Even Denver can get snowstorms this time of year.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 15, 2004).]


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blue_in_MI
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uh... i hate to break it to you NP, but - BTP isn't drilling squat this summer. their year is over after 8 holes in properties they quickly gave up for nothing. a big fat paycheck for a "job well done" for the boys. in case you couldn't tell, that was dripping with sarcasm.

what a completely wasted and worthless summer, for a real turkey of an inept company. rarely have so few done so little with so much. frankly, i am hoping that they go bankrupt, so that at least the management won't profit off of their utter ineptitude at the expense of shareholders. at the rate they're going, i may not have to wait long


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northernprophet
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I am not going to buy any more(I have enough), but I sure will not sell.
I was way off with my assessment of the Idaho play, but with a stock this tightly held, I thought something was up.
All the money they have raised came from the insiders, and they sure did not have much of an opportunity to sell at a decent price.

As you all know, BTP rose with the price of palladium last winter, and BTP will rise in lockstep with a rising palladium price.

Blue, if you sincerely believe palladium will rise, then BTP is the stock for you.

Look at the Uranium stocks that Dines is touting.
Look at a stock called JNR Resources(JNN) (4 cents to $1.35 in a year)
These stocks are like BTP 3 years ago, when you are in the right sector, you do not even need to drill.
If palladium went to $400, BTP would be over a buck, without a drill turning.

The bottom line for me is that if I never heard of BTP before and someone told me about the company, I would think it was an excellent speculation at these prices.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 17, 2004).]


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blue_in_MI
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ask hammered down to .12 today, a meager .105 bid. as i said a few posts ago: next stop, .10. as i posted back on sep1 and before, sell while and what you can at .16. i just don't understand your need to go down with the titanic, NP.

this turkey will hit a nickel sometime this winter, if you really still want it - buy it then.


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northernprophet
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http://news.goldseek.com/TacticalInvestor/1095433201.php

Look, if this guy is right, then BTP will be OK.
Obviously, I was wrong about Idaho, but these guys are starting to affect my thinking. lol

Out of all the garbage that is going on, one thing will hold true.
Palladium up>BTPup, Palladium down>BTP down

They just paid the Montana BLM about $80,000 US, not a sign that the company is going under soon. Also, Robertson is currently at the Red Lodge office.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 18, 2004).]

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 18, 2004).]


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northernprophet
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I am having trouble getting that link up.
Just go to www.goldseek.com and look at the article on Friday Sept 17:
Sol Palha, Tactical Investor
Palladium Anomaly, Part 2

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blue_in_MI
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i do think Pd is going to go up eventually, but nothing management did this summer gave me any confidence that BTP can take advantage of Pd's comeback. personally, i am watching PAL and a few others - if PAL dumps to $5, i might bite. looks about 50%-50% it'll make it there in the next 6-8 months. PAL made $27M profit last year, the only profit I see out of BTP is the profit their inept management has made by bilking shareholders after their summer of incompetence. honestly NP, i can not believe you aren't *pissed* at these jokers for the summer they had. 8 freakin' holes, and zippo in montana.

i still see BTP's future this way: dip to around 6-8 cents this winter, and basically hover there. if Pd makes a comeback to $300, they will likely move back to .15 range at some point next year. it's in a sense a race against time for them: hope that Pd recovers before they run out of money. they are going to have to be careful next year with their next financing: mass dilution will not be taken kindly by the market.

the one thing i still believe in when it comes to BTP is: the montana properties. i still believe they are good. i *used* to think they had a good management, but obviously i was wrong and naive on that one. they were good at drawing paychecks, but - seriously, can you name *one* good thing they did in the last year? just one, even a little one?


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8 cents, nice
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I will admit blue, you were right about BTP going below 10 cents.
Great call.

I am hanging in there, there is no difference between 8 cents and zero.

There is a reason BTP perfectly tracked the rise in palladium last spring.

Finally, I see capitulation.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited September 20, 2004).]


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i don't want to be right, i want BTP to not completely bungle away another year like they did this year!

honestly i don't know how you seem so even-tempered NP, if i were you i would be incredibly pissed at BTP's "efforts" this year. they are currently reaping the fruits of the crap they sowed this summer, and frankly i *hope* it is painful psychologically and financially for management to watch the titanic sink. i have lost maybe $500 on this stinker, but i feel extremely bad for you NP, i really do. i'd like to see management suffer financially because they deserve it, but for your sake i really hope BTP makes a comeback. it's hard to imagine the days could get much darker than today for BTP, just an abysmal day for the company.


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Got to admit you were right on this one BLUE. I got fooled by the TSX 100 buying over half a million shares and the short interest shrinking to zero. Really thought something good was going to happen. So much for those indicators. LOL
Posts: 443 | From: Valemount | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
northernprophet
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Look, they have something and they know it.
That is why BTP moved up last spring.
Also, Stillwater(SWC) is ready to break out in a HUGE way, and that will attract attention to BTP.
Anyone who gives up on this one has not been playing pennies long enough.
I hope none of you sell, but frustration and capitulation are signs of a bottom.



Posts: 268 | From: Edmonton, Canada | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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