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Author Topic: 3% chart
PCola77
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I'm on my blackberry, but in my head I think this is the formula:

Natural log of [(Desired amount)/(Starting amount)] / ln[ ( 1.00 + return) ] = number of periods.

So ln(1000000/3000)/ln(1.03) should equal about 198 if I am thinking about it correctly. No need to hit "=" 85 times on a calculator.

I'll follow up later if I'm wrong.

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jgrecoconstr
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OK obviously no one likes Sirius. I'm going in on it for around 1300 shares first thing monday for trade number 5. It doesn't fit the parameters I have been using but in my opinion as wrong as that could be these are the reasons I am buying. First the doji, it's following a pretty good downtrend, good buying pressure close of the day, up in after market, decent news on it in Yahoo. 52 week low which should I think put alot of interest in buying since there more than likely is a merger coming plus it is near the last low so it could be considered somewhat of a support line. Plus people just playing the bounce should turn it around. I only need around 8 cents to pick up the 3%. I don't think I should have trouble getting that on Monday but we'll see.
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stocktrader22
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doji etc, end of day buying and all really doesnt mean as much as you think. Learn to feel the market sentiment and other outside factors effecting the stocks you play.
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jgrecoconstr
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Stock.... now I feel like Grasshopper and you got the pebble in your hand. I'm so confused !!!!
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stocktrader22
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I'm not pro by any means, but I've stopped reading too much into candlesticks, end of the day buying, and trades where everyone is betting one way. If you want to get your 3% you need to be disciplined and not guessing. some plays are an obvious 3% and you need to wait until you see it to assure 200 SOLID trades. Sirius sure is not by any means.

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stocktrader22
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For example, AAACW was a clear and OBVIOUS play. Jeff Feinberg of JLF fund bought out 20% of the O/S. He also bought big into the company before APWR which was a SPAC and that turned out well. The guy seeing up AAACW was the same guy involved in setting up APWR.

They released a filing basically saying they are going to pay off any shareholders who won't approve the merger. The company merging into AAAC on paper is worth at least $15. Of course the market can change its mind. But with all these factors in play and the warrant trailing the common with a warrant price of $1.80 when I bought, this was an obvious and easy winner!

Nothing is guaranteed in the market but this was pretty easy to see. And I didn't have to take just 3%. This has gone from my buy in of $1.80 to $2.50. You get the picture. Be disciplined and don't rush the 200 trades. Do 50 a year for 4 years and there is your million.

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jgrecoconstr
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Good advice I have to admit, and do appreciate. One of my problems is easy to explain. i often get itchy and feel like I need to be in somewhere. The last one I played took just about two weeks to turn and although I didn't look at many charts in that tiime I did pick one that was looking perfect and sure enough it went way over 3% for the day, but I couldn't play it. So I get frustrated when I can't find one. Basically all I use is stockcharts and somedays as in the past two there just hasn't been one that meets my needs. All I look up is bullish engulfing at support with improving rsi, sto coming from 20 decent volume with room to move in the price and under $40 but over $10. So far so good. So yes I do have to get that under control and not deviate from the plan. I respect your opinion as well as a few other people on here. I have been reading posts for a few years at least and a few of you have pointed me in the right direction and answered my questions when I had them. So that said out of respect for your post i will wait and see what happens with SIRI in the morning if it opens strong I may join in and get out quick. If it has a weak start monday then I will stay away and stay on coarse with what I have been doing so far.
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jgrecoconstr
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Good advice I have to admit, and do appreciate. One of my problems is easy to explain. i often get itchy and feel like I need to be in somewhere. The last one I played took just about two weeks to turn and although I didn't look at many charts in that tiime I did pick one that was looking perfect and sure enough it went way over 3% for the day, but I couldn't play it. So I get frustrated when I can't find one. Basically all I use is stockcharts and somedays as in the past two there just hasn't been one that meets my needs. All I look up is bullish engulfing at support with improving rsi, sto coming from 20 decent volume with room to move in the price and under $40 but over $10. So far so good. So yes I do have to get that under control and not deviate from the plan. I respect your opinion as well as a few other people on here. I have been reading posts for a few years at least and a few of you have pointed me in the right direction and answered my questions when I had them. So that said out of respect for your post i will wait and see what happens with SIRI in the morning if it opens strong I may join in and get out quick. If it has a weak start monday then I will stay away and stay on coarse with what I have been doing so far.
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jgrecoconstr
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Tuesdays play which I think looks perfect for a small gain TNDM which closed at 18. Will try and get 188 shares in the morning. Thanks Stock for putting the doubt on SIRI. I would have jumped in that if not for your post. Just for the hell of it the three others that looked good were MGN* 3.67, ENS* 22.89 and GTN* 5.40. Gtn I liked alot but trying to stay out of stocks under 10 dollars.
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stocktrader22
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Why on all of those?
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jgrecoconstr
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Damn, I had this all down for an explanation for you and it wouldn't post so here goes one more time.

GTN Looked great because of the engulphing candle and it is near and old support from June 06. Rsi and sto are making a sharp turn, it's closing in on the 20 day MA, the volume looks good and the price has a lot of room to move for a small gain. But the price was under the limit I was trying to follow. I'll have to see what this does and possibly re-adjust that rule.It in my opinion has room for a small gain today.

ENS At or near support for the 4th time since Dec 07, closing in on 20 day MA. Rsi and sto are turning, room to move in the price and the volume was decent.

MGN The least of the ones I liked and in all honesty I probably wouldn't have played it if it was the only one I found. It is near old support lines but there are still two lower supports that would scare me. The volume was low which would have kept me away. It's just touching the 20 day MA and the rsi and sto were improving which I liked. But again a low priced stock and low volume but I still feel it may make a small gain today.

MGN

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jgrecoconstr
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So much for those 4 looking good for a quick gain. Still have TNDM in at 18.02 no huge loss yet and still has room to turn around. No big loss on the others either they just didn't pop like I thought they would.
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stocktrader22
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Charts are overrated. Will say it time and time again. You can't just base it off of charts only.
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Ace of Spades
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quote:
Originally posted by stocktrader22:
Charts are overrated. Will say it time and time again. You can't just base it off of charts only.

[Roll Eyes] [Roll Eyes] [Roll Eyes] [Roll Eyes] [Roll Eyes]

My Brotha.....Charts are UNDER RATED [Wink]

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jgrecoconstr
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Stock.... I don't think anything here is a sure thing based on anything. But for me what I have been looking at and playing on paper most times has fair results. I think you could base picks on fundamentals if you want to wait for a return but you may wait quite awhile. I know I will never base one on huge volume spikes because those in my experience of watching usually drop the next day same as huge price spikes always seem to close lower than the day before. Good news seems to have no effect alot of times sometimes negative effects. To me all of this is a gamble but better odds than Vegas. I know I have read in here on Allstocks time and time again, do what works for you. Those picks I made the beginning of the week didn't go up, actually one did alittle but I know (I feel) all of those will turn around and more than likely be up in a short time. They all had what I was looking for and that was support. That's where I am comfortable, what I have spent all this time trying to learn the past year. I won't always win, I know I will lose sometimes maybe more than I want, I know I will have to wait a week or two maybe more even, and sometimes I'll be in and out in a day. What I am looking at on the charts gives me a feeling of confidence that I am making a good decision most times.
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jgrecoconstr
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missed this one today never put a sell order in and it hit 18.61. I needed to hit 18.59. Have to see what monday brings. It moved pretty well today.
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jgrecoconstr
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Finally out of TNDM, another low volume stock. Jumped the gun alittle and sold early at $18.38. Had a close today of $18.80, I just wanted out after holding two weeks of sideways trading. Should have been out last week but my fault for missing the target price then. Ended the 5th trade with about a 1.8% gain after commisions. Now have $3455 for the 6th trade for Monday.
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jgrecoconstr
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Play for tuesday for the 6th trade is BHE, closed at $17.35. Try to pick up 200 shares in the morning and set a price to sell at $17.92
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jgrecoconstr
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Out of BHE at $17.84. Set a trade trigger of .10 once it hit the target price but it went down .10 from $17.94 and sold. Still have to figure out whether to set the parameters smaller in .02 intervals or wait till I am past the target price and start the trigger at a higher price so I don't ever blow by the target. All in all I lost the 10.00 trade fees and a couple cents. So probably a 2.8% gain.
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stocktrader22
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nice!

Take a look at NSTK..should be up at least 3% by mid next week. I'd rather hold for 10%+ on this one though.

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jgrecoconstr
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TY Stock, but it looks like I won't have any funds cleared until Monday hopefully Tuesday at the latest. Following the chart I was supposed to have $3582.00 after 6 trades. I have $3563 so I'm down 20 bucks from selling mistakes the past two trades. Hopefully I can get a handle on the trade triggers with TDA and not make these mistakes anymore.
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jgrecoconstr
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Trade number 7 appears to be Kodak (EK) at $17.22 for lack of finding anything better. May even gap up in the morning and if so I will stay out and wait for another one tomorrow night. If I can get in at the open around todays close I have $3,563 to play with.
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fourseven
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Wow.. EK, nice layup. Both intra- and daily charts look possible.

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the market is not your mother

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jgrecoconstr
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Out of EK. (See post above) I never should have played it. First it didn't meet everything I had been looking for and using in the past trades. So trade #7 has pushed me back down to start again where I was at trade #4. Lesson learned this time... If I can't find one I like even if it takes 2 weeks just stay out. Once the cash clears I'll be going in again with $3,248.
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jgrecoconstr
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Didn't get to post this earlier. (don't know if anyone is reading this anyway but me) Bought into DK this morning at 11.46 and trailing loss kicked in at 11.96. New balance of $3,640 for next week.
Also took the cash I had been using for trades and rounded it up to $3,500 and set it up in a SEP IRA for tax reasons. So I believe I cheated alittle on here. My balance from trade 7 last week after the loss was $3,248. So I took available cash out of my other account for an even 3,500. So I could actually balance wise call this trade today number 7 so I get rid of that unlucky number and move right to 8. But I won't tell anyone I cheated on that!!

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fourseven
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Well what's the point of hiding your losses? I think it's important to keep track of them, so that you don't convince yourself falsely you've found a perfect method..

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the market is not your mother

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jgrecoconstr
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I'll always post the losses. This has actually kind of turned into a journal anyway where I can see what I did right and wrong. The thing i am having the most trouble with is the trailing loss. I waited the other day till it was about .20 cents over my 3% and set the trigger at .10 it kicked in anyway. Had it not kicked in I would have had another gain on DK yesterday. I'm happy with what I made but it sucks when it just goes back up after you get out. I think the only way I will ever get that to work right is if the stock is like 30 or 40 cents over the target and I can make the spread higher. It is great though that the trigger takes alot of the constant watching out of the day so I can focus on work.
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Stupid
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I havent been keeping track but have you looked into LNG? There is some chatter about a potential buyout or takeover in the works.The pps got down to $3.65 this week.Back when pps was above $4.50 I put in a ridiculus buy order in at $3.66 and it filled then bounced. Unfortunately I had bout the same number of shares at fridays close last week at $5.34.Looks to be something you may be intersted in.

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DDDDD

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jgrecoconstr
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Trade #8 is either going to be OCTL (BB) or Stupids pick of LNG (AMEX)which had a great day yesterday. The dilimma is which one. OCTL in my opinion looks perfect, then again LNG has alot of room to move and a big volume spike yesterday with a good close but near it bottom with no support to go by. OCTL yet it has proven supports. Maybe I should just pick one out of a hat.
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tmanfromtexas
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Hope you got some LNG. That one is screaming. TMAN...

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In the end, trust only yourself when trading stocks.

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jgrecoconstr
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I ended up splitting my funds and picked up 275 shares of LNG * 2.26. Trailing stop kicked in and sold at 7.25 for an 11.5% gain approx. On the bad note I picked up 1,100 shares of OCTL * $1.60 which did nothing today and it looked very promising. I tried to close out that position at the end of the day to consolidate my cash again and only 500 shares sold. I took a .02 loss on those. If I can get rid of the rest tomorrow I certainly will. Someday I will learn(I think that was today) to stay out of pennies.
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tmanfromtexas
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I quit playing pennies for the most part. If its an ob with a good 10q then maybe but once I get rid of the trash in my account (pinks) I will rid of them for good. Playing some of the regular's picks here have netted me over 13% in a little over a month. That doesnt include PCOLA's trading method. There were a few I shouldhave held onto for another day or two and I would be up alot more, but trying to work and trade is difficult. TMAN...

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In the end, trust only yourself when trading stocks.

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jgrecoconstr
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It't nice to make the mistake in the sense I know now no matter how good it looks to just stay with the big board stocks.
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jgrecoconstr
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Closed out the rest of OCTL at 1.60, what I picked it up for. Total loss for that trade with commision was 32 dollars. Big dive today for LNG so I gotta love that trailing stop that kicked in yesterday. Here's a question if anyone can answer because I haven't experienced this yet. If you have a trailing stop/stop loss and a stock is dropping like a rock it most likely won't kick in will it? There won't be anyone to buy when it goes down that fast. Would that be true?
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jgrecoconstr
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Trade#9 looks like it is going to be RSF. Closed at $2.98 last week on an up day close to a support line. Worries me that the average volume is under 200k so it may not move. I should be going in with around $3,800 and need a .10 cent increase. I like LAVA at the same time but going with the first choice.
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