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Author Topic: SLV SILVER. The 10 year plan
bullitt49
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how do I hook up with personal sellers? should I go to coin shops or are they gouging prices? any info would be appreciated. I've been collecting silver coins since I was a kid but would like to add some silver to my assets. thanks again.

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It is better to be humbled than ruined

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invester
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quote:
Originally posted by bullitt49:
how do I hook up with personal sellers? should I go to coin shops or are they gouging prices? any info would be appreciated. I've been collecting silver coins since I was a kid but would like to add some silver to my assets. thanks again.

Well, Ebay... also, Google "your city, and silver bullion sellers". When shopping Ebay only buy from VERY reputable sellers. There are also a ton of silver mints. Silvertowne.com That should get you started.
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buckstalker
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Apmex.com is one I've been dealing with...

Also been buying on eBay using Bing cashback

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It's all in the timing...

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bullitt49
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great information, thanks for the help invester and buckstalker.

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It is better to be humbled than ruined

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invester
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quote:
Originally posted by buckstalker:
Apmex.com is one I've been dealing with...

Also been buying on eBay using Bing cashback

Yep, I agree, Apmex as well.
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glassman
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i like silver esp old coins, even scrap coins which are not always pure so you have to study what they are, for instance? a 1965 keenedy half dollar is only 40% while a '64 is 90%-

i had some bags of scrap coins that they swore were in stock take 6 months to deliver very early last year, the price actually dropped after my order and i insisted on a refund, it wasn't much tho

i go round to several convenience stores of the mom and pops type every month and buy what they have saved for me at 5 times face right now, it was 4 times face for awhile... it adds up and it's fun..

i've seen it move up looking like it was going to run and then the paper traders got control again on several occasions. it's going to go up in the long run tho, and coins will be easier to trade then bullion IMO...

i have some collectible coins that have gone up much better than the price of silver.

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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invester
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Read this. This may help the layman.



The World's Cumulative Gold and Silver Production
Part 1

David Zurbuchen

www.silverinscripture.com
Free Silver Stock Investment Newsletter

This is the first installment of a planned 7-part series:

Part 1 - The World's Cumulative Silver and Gold Production. Documenting the total amount of silver and gold produced since recorded history.

Part 2 - The Silver Deficit. Documenting the silver production/consumption deficit since 1939.

Part 3 - The Real Silver Deficit. Answering the questions of "How much silver has been consumed by industry?" and "In what potentially marketable accessible forms does it remain?"

Part 4 - The Illogical Performance of the Gold to Silver ratio Since 1848. Looking at silver and gold's production growth since 1848, and contrasting both this measurement and that of their shrinking ratio of comparative rarity to the ever-widening market price ratio between the two.

Part 5 - Why the Depressed Prices? A brief look at the amount of silver stockpiles held in the early 1900's, as well as some interesting quotes dating back several decades that made the bullish case for silver, unwittingly or not.

Part 6 - What Happened in 1980? Did production increase? Did extraordinary amounts of scrap silver come to market? -- What to expect in any future stratospheric price rise.

Part 7 - The Future of Silver. An overview of silver's fundamentals, focusing in on industrial usage and it's growing number of applications. Also included will be my own short and long-term outlook, together with price predictions for 2006 and beyond.


Preface

I'm a relatively new face in the gold and silver bug community, and while attempting to conduct research of my own I found it frustrating that there did not seem to be any sort of comprehensive data source dealing with the subjects of silver and gold production and consumption. In an effort to change this, I've spent several hundred hours this past month perusing through thousands of pages of documents (namely, the Minerals Yearbooks (1933-2004)). It is my hope that this series of articles will serve as reliable reference material for all future writers, researchers, believers and skeptics, saving them all much time and effort better spent breaking new ground in the ever thickening plot behind…


Those precious two,
Of gold and silver hue,
"You missed them too?"
"Boy, how they flew!"


Cumulative World Silver Production

Source 1


USGS (United States Geological Survey)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1251/2004-1251.pdf

"Total silver production from pre-history till 2001 is estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to have been about 1.26 million metric tons (Mt), one half of which was mined in the last 62 year period." (Page 8)

1.26 Mt x 32,150.75 ounces/ton = 40.51 billion ounces + 2.46 billion
(production from 2001-2005) = 42.97 billion ounces

Cumulative Silver Production = 42.97 billion ounces

Source 2 (multiple)


The History of Silver (3000BC-1493AD)


Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook (1493-1930)
(Billions of Ounces)


Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook (1931-1993)
The Silver Institute (1995-2004)
(millions of ounces)


*Free World:

In the years 1939-1991, total world production numbers are not exact in nature due to a lack of data coming from the communist world:

Listed in order of estimated silver production, the Communist World consisted of: U.S.S.R, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, China, North Korea, and Poland.
Russia contributed the vast majority of the above group's silver production, mining an estimated 80% of their cumulative total (25M ounces).

Russia's share increased to 38M ounces/year by 1970 (the others remain much the same)
Russia's share increases to 43M ounces/year by 1975 (the others remain much the same).
Russia's share increases to 46M ounces/year by 1979 (the others remain much the same).
Russia's share increases to 48M ounces/year by 1989 (the others remain much the same).
Beginning in 1991 Russia's share begins to decrease, and in 2004 they produced only 37.9 M ounces.
All these numbers are added to the above total, I just wanted to make this issue more clear. In truth, I wouldn't be surprised if the above world cumulative total should actually be a little less due to a possible over estimation of communist Russia's mining productivity, as is evidenced by their declining production numbers since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991.


Compiling All of the Above Data…


Cumulative Silver Production = 42.62 billion ounces

Source 3 (multiple)

From: "Silver Products and Production". Encyclopedia Britannica, 1974 Ed.

"Total world production up to 1970 was just under 30 billion accumulated ounces." (Let's use 29.5B)

If we add to this the 15.25B ounces that were produced since then (1970-2004) based upon the data from Source 2 then…

Cumulative Silver Production = 44.75 billion ounces

Source 4 (multiple)


The History of Silver (3000BC-1492)


Continuing from The History of Silver (1493-1900)


United States Geological Survey (USGS) Data (Link)
The Silver Institute (1995-2004)


Compiling All of the Above…


Cumulative Silver Production = 48.87 billion ounces

Source 5:

Marion Butler estimated in 1999 (Link) that a total of 40.4 Billion ounces of silver had been produced since 3000BC. If you add to this the amount of silver produced between 1999 and 2004 (3.05B) you get…

Cumulative Silver Production = 43.50 billion ounces


A Complete Summation of the Silver Data


Average Cumulative World Silver Production
= 44.542 billion ounces


Cumulative World Gold Production

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/usbmmyb.html

Pg. 88 Minerals Yearbook 1942 "Normally, 5 to 10 percent of world gold output is consumed by industry; the remaining 90 to 95 percent is used for monetary purposes."

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/ (Look under: Mineral Commodity Summary)

"Of the estimated 150,000 tons of all gold ever mined, about 15% is thought to have been lost, used in dissipative industrial uses, or otherwise was unrecoverable or unaccounted for."

Therefore, the average amount of gold consumed by industry or lost = 11.25% based upon the above sources.

Source 1 provides it's own percentage of attrition (i.e. lost gold), so this value of 11.24% will only be used to evaluate Sources 2 and 3.
Source 1 (multiple):


http://www.fgmr.com/gold.htm


Click HERE to View the Pie Chart

From Above Chart (Link):

"113,571 tonnes historical production less 10,854 total attrition =
107,717 tonnes." (Year-end 1996)


Below: Production numbers obtained from http://www.dailyfutures.com/metals/


107,717 tonnes x 32,150.75 ounces/tonne = 3.4632 billion ounces

3.4632 billion ounces + (651.7 million ounces x 90.846%%*) = 4.06 billion ounces

*100% - 9.154% attrition (calculated from the text within the above pie chart).

Cumulative Gold Production = 4.06 billion ounces

Source 2:

http://www.gold.org/value/markets/supply_demand/mine_production.html

"The best estimates available suggest that the total volume of gold mined over history is approximately 153,000 tonnes, of which around 63% has been mined since 1950. The upward trend in annual production is now leveling off, due not least to a considerable slowdown in exploration spending in the late 1990s. Independent analysts are of the belief that mine output will remain flat for the next few years and may even drop slightly." (Year-end 2004)

153,000 tonnes x 32,150.75 ounces/ton x .8875* = 4.37 billion ounces

*100% - 11.25% attrition.

Cumulative Gold Production = 4.37 billion ounces

Source 3:

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/gold_mcs05.pdf

"Of the estimated 150,000 tons of all gold ever mined, about 15% is thought to have been lost, used in dissapative industrial uses, or otherwise was unrecoverable or unaccounted for. Of the remaining 128,000 tons, central banks hold an estimated 32,000 tons as official stocks, and about 96,000 tons is held privately in coin, bullion, or jewelry." (Year-end 2004)

150,000 x 32,150.75 ounces/ton x .8875 = 4.28 billion ounces

Cumulative Gold Production = 4.28 billion ounces

Source 4 (multiple):

From: http://www.gold.org/discover/knowledge/aboutgold/gold_prod/index.html

"World production at this time climbed to 280 tonnes in 1852 and thence to almost 300 tonnes as Australia. Production was lifted onto an even higher place in 1886 with the discovery of the huge gold reefs… in South Africa."


Minerals Yearbook 1932-1933


USGS Data (1933-2002)


GFMS Data (2003-2004)


Since an estimated 90% of all the gold ever mined was mined after 1848 (Gold History):

4.36485 billion ounces/.90 = 4.8498 billion ounces x .8875 = 4.30 billion ounces

Cumulative Gold Production = 4.30 billion ounces


A Complete Summation of the Gold Data


Average Cumulative World Gold Production
= 4.25 billion ounces


Ratios: What Nonsense they Reveal

We'll deal more extensively with the silver to gold ratio in Part 4 of this series, but just for fun let's find out what the ratio is in terms of the total amount of silver and gold ever mined in the history of the world:

44.55 billion ounces of silver/ 4.25 billion ounces of gold = a 10.5 to 1 ratio

Hmmm…This says nothing of the silver deficit and yet the ratio already reveals that at today's prices ($9/ounce vs. $540/ounce) silver trades at an 82.5% discount to gold, or conversely, it could be said that gold is overvalued by about 570% in terms of silver. Of the two ways of looking at the comparative price, I'll most certainly choose the former as I believe both silver and gold will be going up wildly in price in the coming years. Most would agree that neither gold nor silver is undervalued in terms of the dollar, so the only way to look at this situation is to say that silver is undervalued in terms of the dollar and gold. This means that I expect silver to far outperform any gains seen in the price of gold, even if gold doubles or triples in price within these next 2 years. The ratio will shrink, and silver will rise much faster, drawn up, as if by a vacuum in space, a vacuum created by the long-term market manipulation, short selling, and government dishoarding.

Don't believe me? Well then, you'll just have to wait until next time when we'll be stumbling into the "Silver Zone", and taking a much closer look at the much-lauded silver deficit.

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glassman
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just keep in mind that no matter how unlikely, a big find is always possible but it's always going to be worth soemthing and way better than cash

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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invester
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44.55 billion ounces of silver/ 4.25 billion ounces of gold = a 10.5 to 1 ratio

So were talking about $100+ per ounce on a weighted ratio. Silver is also used as an industrial metal. The disconnect is unreal.

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by invester:
44.55 billion ounces of silver/ 4.25 billion ounces of gold = a 10.5 to 1 ratio

So were talking about $100+ per ounce on a weighted ratio. Silver is also used as an industrial metal. The disconnect is unreal.

yeah and a couple years back? somebody in Brtain claimed a patent that would make silver less prone to oxidation but i haven't heard much about it since it was announced.

they still have to use gold instead of silver for certain sensitive electronic applications where oxidation is totally unacceptable. Satellites for instance, and miltary stuff often requires gold contacts instead of silver (they are both outstanding conductors)

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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invester
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A must read.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-investment-gold-infla tion-industrial-demand/4/21/2010/id/27908?page=1

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bullitt49
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Glassman, you wrote "i go round to several convenience stores of the mom and pops type every month and buy what they have saved for me at 5 times face right now, it was 4 times face for awhile... it adds up and it's fun.." what do you buy from them. I go to the banks and convenience stores and buy their silver dollars and half dollars. I pay them face value for the coins. is this what you are talking about? I'm just curious about paying 4 and 5 times face.

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It is better to be humbled than ruined

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Happy Valley
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FWIW...I'll echoe Buck and Invester about APMEX...Been using them the last couple of years and have never had a problem taking delivery of exactly what I ordered...

http://www.apmex.com/

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by bullitt49:
Glassman, you wrote "i go round to several convenience stores of the mom and pops type every month and buy what they have saved for me at 5 times face right now, it was 4 times face for awhile... it adds up and it's fun.." what do you buy from them. I go to the banks and convenience stores and buy their silver dollars and half dollars. I pay them face value for the coins. is this what you are talking about? I'm just curious about paying 4 and 5 times face.

they sell you the silver coins they collected for face?

they can take them to any trader and get 4 to 7 times face.

this guy pays 8.5 to 9.2 per face on 90% (scrap coins)

http://www.jakesmp.net/BUY_prices/Buy_Prices_page_001_C.html

at 5X i can flip to him today for a small profit, but i am only buying for my kids anyway

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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bullitt49
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glassman, i'm buying the silver dollars and half dollars from dates 1980 and earlier for face. I know they're worth more than face value but that is what I'm paying for them.

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It is better to be humbled than ruined

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invester
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Up 2.5%
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invester
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This should be a warning to the silver futures manipulation.

Moore Capital Fined in Platinum Manipulation Case (Update1)
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Whitney McFerron

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Moore Capital Management LP agreed to pay $25 million to settle charges that a former portfolio manager attempted to manipulate platinum and palladium futures during a surge in prices two years ago, U.S. regulators said.

A portfolio manager, who wasn’t identified, used buy orders in the closing moments of trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange to boost settlement prices from November 2007 through May 2008, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said today in an e-mailed statement. The orders “frequently accounted for a significant portion of the volume” in the two thinly traded markets, the agency said.

Platinum futures rose 39 percent from Nov. 1, 2007, to May 30, 2008, touching a record $2,308.80 an ounce on March 4, and palladium jumped 17 percent, touching a six-year high of $600 an ounce, also on March 4. Both palladium platinum are used in jewelry and pollution-control components for cars.

New York-based Moore, which manages about $15 billion, said in a separate statement that the portfolio manager left the company in the fall of 2008. None of Moore’s principals nor its current management were involved in any improper trading, and none were accused of any wrongdoing, the company said.

The manager sought to influence the exchange’s volume- weighted settlement price with buy orders for 20 to 100 contracts, according to the agency. A platinum contract is 50 ounces, and a palladium contract is 100 ounces.

To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney McFerron in Chicago at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net.

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invester
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Up 1.5%
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bullitt49
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I have a question a little off topic here. I got change today and they gave me a Michigan state quarter but it is gold colored. It doesn't look like some aftermarket dye job but it looks like it was done like that at the mint. Did they put out a coin like that or is this an error coin. Just thought maybe someone would have some info. Thanks.

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invester
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I just took delivery at Apmex for $18.80, now $19.36
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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by bullitt49:
I have a question a little off topic here. I got change today and they gave me a Michigan state quarter but it is gold colored. It doesn't look like some aftermarket dye job but it looks like it was done like that at the mint. Did they put out a coin like that or is this an error coin. Just thought maybe someone would have some info. Thanks.

most likely it's goldplated

http://www.statequartersale.com/Qstore/Qstore.cgi?CMD=007&DEPT=1260394309&BACK=A 0011A1E01069123086E1

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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bullitt49
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thanks Glassman, I didn't know they made them in 24k.

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invester
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Up 1.2%
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Happy Valley
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[Smile] [Smile] [Smile]
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Happy Valley
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SLV...Grabbing some May calls today...
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invester
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Gold is at $1200 and silver has dropped a few ticks. LoL.
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a surfer
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I think we see 20's by the end of the month.

Just a guess.

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Happy Valley
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quote:
Originally posted by Happy Valley:
SLV...Grabbing some May calls today...

Yesterdays sell off was an absolute joke...My SLV May $18 calls are up over 80% today...
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a surfer
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quote:
Originally posted by Happy Valley:
quote:
Originally posted by Happy Valley:
SLV...Grabbing some May calls today...

Yesterdays sell off was an absolute joke...My SLV May $18 calls are up over 80% today...
atta boy. More than one way to skin a cat
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invester
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I'm 3000 oz. hard silver. Over 2000 to ship. I've been wrong before, but not wrong that often. I'll be 10000 oz. shortly.
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invester
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Up 3%
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a surfer
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Funny the disconnect lately between Gold and silver.

The events unfolding are all catalysts for a continuation of a long term bull run for both but I think the world is slowly seeing the potential in the white metal.

All we need is 2% of the gold money and we will quadruple in price.

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a surfer
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over 5%.

Looks like someone wants delivery.

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invester
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Up $1.12 If you break $20, I see $30 soon after.
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Happy Valley
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Link to the short version todays COT report...
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

After todays move, I am really looking foward to next Fridays report...At some point these guys are gonna need to start covering...I have as much patience as it takes...JMO DYODD

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