IMO silver is the "No Brainer" of commodity investing. It is screaming and gleaming potential major profits during the next 5-10-20 years.
Buying real silver is what got me started trading and I still add to my position whenever the chance presents itself.
Ted Butler has studied silver for 20+ years and has my utmost respect. I feel honored to read what he has to write. If you want to learn about silver and its potential here is an archive link to his weekly commentary.
Silver broke the $15 mark again today and will IMO see $20 plus within 90-120 days.
BUT this is not about short term gains.... its about building wealth... for you, your children and your grandchildren over a period of years to decades.
Happy New Year!!
Posted by a surfer on :
getting close to $16.00 an ounce
Posted by a surfer on :
$16.06 highest price for silver since the Hunt brother manipulation in 1980.
Gold touched $895 today...
History in the making...
Some say gold is going to go over $1000 soon.
Posted by a surfer on :
In gold, the eight largest traders accounted for 95% of the all the COMEX commercial selling in the past three weeks (with the 4 largest making up most of that amount). Without this concentrated short selling, prices would have climbed much higher. The remarkable fact is that the natural hedgers, the gold mining companies, have been retreating from forward selling, leaving the question open as to who the heck the sellers are and what is their legitimacy?
At precisely the time the gold miners hold the lowest forward sale position in many years, the four largest traders on the COMEX hold a record net short position of 75 days of world mine production and the 8 largest traders hold a short position of more than 104 days world production. Gold’s concentrated short position, expressed in days of world mine production is the largest of any commodity other than silver.
The 4 or less traders in silver are now net short more than 282 million ounces, or more than 161 days of world mine production, another ugly new record. The 8 largest traders are net short almost 200 days of world mine production. Not only is this a record for silver, it is so far beyond a record for any commodity that I can confidently predict that no commodity will ever again have such a preposterously large short position.
Posted by a surfer on :
i like silver "junk coins".. they are 90% silver 1964 and earlier..
(except for Kennedy halves from '65 to '69 they are only 40%)
junk sliver coins are easy to buy and really are US money if times get real bad? they will spend well.
i hope time don't get that bad tho.
i also go round to the "mini-marts" and buy their silver coins that thye cull from their drawers. i am always surprised at how much is still turning up.
Posted by a surfer on :
Hey glass you ever see them selling silver at gun shows??? If you go to gun shows that is.
Posted by a surfer on :
Cook: Okay. Will you summarize the bullish case for silver and why you think it should be purchased now?
Butler: It’s greatly undervalued compared to its supply and demand fundamentals. It’s undervalued on a relative basis compared to everything else, including gold. There’s a smaller amount available for investment than at any time in hundreds of years. It’s under-owned, under-appreciated, misunderstood and overlooked by the investment world. It’s about as far away from being in a bubble as it can be, yet is a prime candidate for becoming a future bubble. It has been pre-sold (shorted) to an extent never witnessed in any other item, which guarantees it must be purchased or delivered against at some point. Institutions can easily own it for the first time. It is vital for modern life. It can’t go bankrupt or become worthless and can soar in price by many times its current price. It is easy to buy. All these statements can be verified easily and I can’t think of one valid reason why it shouldn’t be bought.
Cook: Thank you for a great interview.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by a surfer: Hey glass you ever see them selling silver at gun shows??? If you go to gun shows that is.
sure, and it's usually a good price, but i only buy US coins from people i don't know.
bars or foreign coins can be counterfieted.
i got a counterfeit 20$ gold peice once back in the 80's. i didn't pay much for it and i shoulda known something wasn't right Posted by a surfer on :
$17.40 NY close.
Still so many positives and so few negatives.
Gaining %-wise compared to gold.
Posted by a surfer on :
$17.80 silver
$944.00 gold
I am looking for a major market crash within a 3
day period coming within 1-2 months.
I mean as bad as 1987. 10-20% and as much as
30% over a period of a few weeks.
It is almost ineveitable.
Posted by glassman on :
£25bn wiped off banks' stockmarket value
* Jill Treanor * The Guardian, * Monday February 18 2008
This article appeared in the Guardian on Monday February 18 2008 on p22 of the Financial section. It was last updated at 00:03 on February 18 2008.
More than £25bn has been wiped off the stockmarket value of Britain's major banks this month as concern about the impact of the credit crunch reverberates around the sector.
The 10% drop in the first two weeks of February underlines investor concern that further write-offs of investments in exotic instruments related to the sub-prime mortgage sector in the US may be needed.
The fall in share prices has occurred as the major banks prepare to report their figures for 2007. Bradford and Bingley began the process last week, shocking the City with its admission that it was taking £226m of one-off charges and write-offs - halving its profits for 2007. Its shares, under pressure even before the figures were released, are more than 30% lower than their level of a fortnight ago. The B&B's stockmarket capitalisation is barely £1bn.
the estimates i've seen indicate that trillions$ of write-offs are gonna be made.
this isn't simply bad mortgages, it's also about "estimating" financial instruments values at too high a price. it's all good until somebody asks to see how much the original instruments on deposit are really worth. somebody did... they ain't worth anything cuz nobody will buy 'em...
Posted by a surfer on :
crazy metal we call silver.
Posted by glassman on :
here's the reason banks won't "loan" to each other anymore. they used REPOS to loan each other money, and nobody wants to be the bag-holder...
Repurchase agreements (RPs or repos) are financial instruments used in the money markets and capital markets. A more accurate and descriptive term is Sale and Repurchase Agreement, since what occurs is that the cash receiver (borrower/seller) sells securities to the cash provider (lender/buyer) now in return for cash, and agrees to repurchase those securities from the buyer for a greater sum of cash at some later date, that greater sum being all of the cash lent and some extra cash (constituting interest, known as the repo rate). A repo is economically similar to a secured loan, with the buyer receiving securities as collateral to protect against default. There is little that prevents any security from being employed in a repo; so, Treasury or Government bills, corporate and Treasury / Government bonds, and stocks / shares, may all be used as securities involved in a repo. However, the legal title to the securities clearly passes from the seller to the buyer, or "investor". Coupons (installment payments that are payable to the owner of the securities) which are paid while the repo buyer owns the securities are, in fact, usually passed directly onto the repo seller which might seem counterintuitive, as the ownership of the collateral technically rests with the buyer during the repo agreement. It is possible to instead pass on the coupon by altering the cash paid at the end of the agreement, though this is more typical of Sell/Buy Backs.
While classic repos are generally credit-risk mitigated instruments, there are residual credit risks. Though it is essentially a collateralized transaction, the seller may fail to repurchase the securities sold at the maturity date. In other words, the repo seller defaults on his obligation. Consequently, the buyer may keep the security, and liquidate the security in order to recover the cash lent. The security, however, may have lost value since the outset of the transaction as the security is subject to market movements. To mitigate this credit risk, repos often are overcollateralized as well as being subject to daily mark-to-market margining. Credit risk associated with repo is subject to many factors: term of repo, liquidity of security, the strength of the counterparties involved, etc.
Repo transactions came into focus within the financial press due to the technicalities of settlements following the collapse of Refco. Occasionally, a party involved in a repo transaction may not have a specific bond at the end of the repo contract. This may cause a string of failures from one party to the next, for as long as different parties have transacted for the same underlying instrument. The focus of the media attention centers on attempts to mitigate these failures.
so the "credit crunch" hits just as this new accounting rule hits too:
November 12, 2007 Why FAS 157 strikes dread into bankers Just when we hoped the worst was over . . . William Rees-Mogg
Few non-bankers have heard of FAS 157 and 159, yet these are the regulations that will set the terms on which the banks will value their assets. The trouble with FAS 157 and 159 is that they are perfectly reasonable regulations in themselves which could have disastrous, though unintended, consequences.
What are FAS 157 and 159? They are the new United States (Federal) accounting standards that have been introduced to regulate the valuation of bank assets. These valuations are of crucial importance because they are the basis of all bank lending: no assets, no lending; no lending, no bank. According to an informative article in The Financial Times, the new standards will apply fully from Thursday. Many US banks have adopted them already. All US quoted banks will have to publish asset figures in conformity with FAS 157 by next spring.
Martin Hutchinson has also analysed the assets of Goldman Sachs. The bank has disclosed $72 billion of level-three assets, out of total assets of $900 billion. That seems reasonable enough, but it compares with Goldman Sachs’s capital of $36 billion. Any substantial write off of level-three assets would impact on Goldman Sachs net asset value.
No doubt this is the reform that should have been introduced years ago; that would have saved a great deal of agony and some abuse. But FAS 157 is coming into effect at a most inconvenient time. The sub-prime mortgage defaults have already undermined confidence in mortgage banked securities. These form a significant part – perhaps about a quarter – of all level-three assets. Level three also includes higher-quality mortgages and leveraged bridged loans for buyouts.
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group estimates that U.S. banks and brokers, already under massive losses caused by the collapse in the subprime credit market, potentially face hundreds of billions of dollars in write-offs because of what are called Level 3 accounting rules, according to Bloomberg.
Janjuah noted that, for example, Morgan Stanley has the equivalent of 251 percent of its equity in Level 3 assets, Goldman Sachs has 185 percent, Lehman Brothers has 159 percent and Citigroup has 105 percent, according to Bloomberg.
On the other hand, Merrill Lynch has Level 3 assets equal to 38 percent of its equity. As a result, Janjuah believes Merrill ''may well come out of all of this in the best health.''
In the fair value hierarchy, Level 1 is simple mark-to-market, whereby an asset’s value is based on an actual price. Level 2, known as mark-to-model and used when there aren't any quoted prices available, is an estimate based on observable inputs, Bloomberg explains.
Level 3 consists of unobservable inputs, such as those that reflect the reporting entity’s own assumptions about what market participants would use to price the asset or liability (including risk), developed using the best information available without undue cost and effort, according to FASB. There is no verification requirement if the assumptions are in line with those of market participants.
Lookin to go again eh?
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Which bars do you guys prefer???Seems like the Engelhard and Johnson Matthey 100 oz. bars sell for a little higher premium (about .20 +/- oz.)then some of the other manufacturers (Pan American etc)...Everything I have been reading is leading me to believe the Engelhard or Johnson Matthey bars are the way to go...
Posted by BooDog on :
I'm collecting coins here happy. Whatever I can scrounge from the old ladies crossing the streets! Helping them across of course!! LOL and from the mints too.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Same here Boo...Will continue to buy the Eagles for as long as my dealer gets them in, or for as long as buying the Eagles over the bars makes sense financially...Will only switch to the bars if I have to...Love dem Eagles!!! Posted by a surfer on :
I hear ya Surf...I have not been able to get Eagles from my dealer in almost two weeks...Decided to open an account with APMEX and placed my first order today...I will let the board know how they are to deal with once I take posession of my 08's...
Dog,too bad you dont live closer so I could sell some of mine.Have some silver eagles left over from the collection I sold last year.I wish I would have held on to my gold indians.I think u r about 800 miles too far north.Snows up there.
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: I hear ya Surf...I have not been able to get Eagles from my dealer in almost two weeks...Decided to open an account with APMEX and placed my first order today...I will let the board know how they are to deal with once I take posession of my 08's...
Well, I took posession of my 08's on 5/27/08, actually a few day earlier than expected...Not a big fan of paying for shipping ($19.95) but the transaction itself went exactly as they said it would ...FWIW I Was able to pick up a few Johnson Matthey bars locally at .75 over spot...The deals are out there, just have to hit the pavement a little to find them...GLTYA
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Good stuff Surf, kinda makes you wonder eh??? I'm in this for the long hall and will continue to add to my position whenever the opportunity presents itself...
Posted by glassman on :
it's amazing to me too.
i haven't heard of this till today, and i keep track for my own fuel purchase.
this year? my propane dealer is not going to offer a future contract to us retail buyers.. ( i use it for my glass), an dthis week is when it is always offered... propane was 2.80 here last week. .'03 it was .55 in July and only got up to .69
this has me wondering. are they figuring it's just too unpredictable with Iran? or do they believe that the market will drop hard once this bubble pops...
Posted by a surfer on :
All of the suppliers in physical silver have a waiting list of unknown length for delivery.
All unprecedented.
On top of that we now have a crisis where people are looking for a "safe haven" for their money.
Its a win win situation IMO.
Posted by T e x on :
Interesting...
Thanks.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Found this interesting as well...The August 19th COT report lists a total of 103,659 short commercial futures and options contracts for silver...The current COT report shows over a 26% decrease in short commercial Silver futures and options contracts...Why such a sharp decline in short contracts if the big boys did not think the bottom was close???
Additionally, the current the gold/silver ratio is about 67:1...If you were to calculate the ratio with the actual price physical silver is selling for($3.00 over spot is what I had to pay last week) the ratio would then decrease to 54.5:1...Which is alot closer the the traditional 50:1...Just thinking out loud here...All JMHO...
To say that the silver market is set up and has the real potential of exploding in price is an understatement. In fact, it’s hard for me to conceive of a single real bearish factor. And it’s not just that there are many bullish factors present in silver as much as it is the extreme condition of all those bullish factors. That physical supplies are as tight as they are, at the same time the market structure is set up so well, at such depressed prices is a wonder to me. I never thought such conditions could exist at the same time.
Posted by a surfer on :
I just had a call in to place orders for 1000 Oz. bars to Investment Rarities.
$15.67 is the price per ounce. $3.40 over spot. 27% premium.
MINDBOGLING
When we (family trust) originally placed orders with I.R. in the past 2005-2006 we paid .25-.40 over spot.
The physical shortage is now completely entrenched.
Posted by osubucks30 on :
Started a position today. May go lower but near $11 is a good entry price! Bought some GLD too!! The printing press will be hard at work printing $$$!!
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by a surfer: Well I am completely floored.......
I just had a call in to place orders for 1000 Oz. bars to Investment Rarities.
$15.67 is the price per ounce. $3.40 over spot. 27% premium.
MINDBOGLING
When we (family trust) originally placed orders with I.R. in the past 2005-2006 we paid .25-.40 over spot.
The physical shortage is now completely entrenched.
it's just more proof how manipulated the markets are...
Posted by retiredat49 on :
Bargain prices here IMO..Just paid $10.85 per ounce $1.00 over spot
Posted by Happy Valley on :
$1.00 over spot!!!Nice...You buying locally or online Retiredat???Just paid $3.00 for rounds, even with the premium my dealer had to order them for me...
Posted by retiredat49 on :
Looks like another good day to surf silver...yeah, yeah, Silver Surfer puns aside.
Made about 16% last month on this one riding the upswings. It closed at 10.23 on friday and opened this morning at 9.27. Back in today hoping to make another 12% or so by the end of next week (sell order at 10.27).
Let's see if I finally found a good surfboard.
Posted by a surfer on :
LOL....nice one SF!!
I'll tell ya its friggin hillarious watching these swings.
The calculation, manipulation and corruption behind every facet of this country and its government is enough to make me puke.
My local dealer still wants $4.50 for Eagles and $3.50 over spot for bars and rounds...Was able to pick up a couple hundred online today at a $1.49...Hate not being able to take delivery immediately but I hate paying a crazy premium even more...
Anybody else trying to buy physical locally???Curious as to what your dealers markups are...
Posted by greenman on :
I shop around coin shops for the silver dollars and eagles. I cannot find any deals anywhere. Outrageous prices.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Closing in on $16.00 nice...Been a little while since I checked spot prices...Nice owning something you don't have to babysit tick by tick...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?
Cracked $18 today...Great start to the week...
Posted by a surfer on :
Looks like $18 coming as I type.
Silver Short Squeeze Could Be Imminent
On December 11th, 2009 NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade. In our December 11th article, we said that it wasn't a coincidence that the very day Bear Stearns failed was the same day silver reached its multi-decade high of over $21 per ounce. We went on to say, "The reason why we believe the Federal Reserve was so eager to orchestrate a bailout of Bear Stearns, is because Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their silver short position."
JP Morgan took over the concentrated short position in silver from Bear Stearns and gained complete control over the paper price of silver. Within weeks, JP Morgan was able to manipulate the price of silver down to below $9 per ounce. NIA believes they were able to drive the price of silver down through "naked short selling", selling paper silver that is unbacked by physical silver.
On February 5th, we witnessed another sharp decline in silver prices, which NIA described on February 7th as being "just a temporary wash out, before a huge surge in silver prices later in 2010". Since then, silver prices have rebounded by 18%. The temporary wash out that occurred on February 5th was predicted by independent metals trader Andrew Maguire, who came out this week exposing the fraud that is taking place in the paper silver market.
On February 3rd, Andrew Maguire wrote Eliud Ramirez, a senior investigator for the CFTC's Enforcement Division, giving him the "heads up" for a "manipulative event" signaled for February 5th. He warned the CFTC that JP Morgan was about to manipulate down the price of silver after the release of non-farm payroll data on February 5th. Andrew said that the takedown would happen regardless of if employment was better or worse than expected and the price of silver would be flushed to below $15 per ounce. During the next couple of days, silver was crushed from $16.17 per ounce down to a low of $14.62 per ounce.
Despite all of the evidence given by Andrew Maguire to the CFTC of gold and silver manipulation, Andrew wasn't allowed to speak at last week's CFTC hearing on limiting gold and silver positions held by banks like JP Morgan. Bill Murphy of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) was allowed to speak (within a five-minute time constraint) and present some of Andrew Maguire's evidence, but right when his presentation began there was a technical failure of the live television broadcast, which was mysteriously fixed as soon as he was done speaking. Bill Murphy was scheduled for several mainstream media television interviews after the CFTC hearings, but they were all abruptly cancelled at once.
A couple of days after the CFTC meeting, Andrew Maguire and his wife were involved in a bizarre hit-and-run car accident in London where a second car coming out of a side street struck their vehicle, which resulted in a police chase using helicopters and patrol cars before the suspect was nabbed. Andrew and his wife were released from the hospital with minor injuries. (NIA does not believe in conspiracy theories but when you consider that this is a potential multi-trillion dollar fraud that could bring down the world's financial system, it really makes you think.)
The silver market provides a window into what is happening in the gold market. Because the silver market is very small and its short position is so concentrated, its price is easier to manipulate than gold, but the same manipulation is taking place in gold on a much larger but less noticeable scale. In our opinion, the CFTC is under pressure not to do anything about the manipulation because the lower gold and silver prices are, the stronger the U.S. dollar appears to be. If we saw an explosion to the upside in gold and silver prices, it would result in a complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
NIA believes the precious metals markets are currently being artificially suppressed by paper gold and silver that doesn't physically exist. At last week's CFTC hearings, Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group admitted that banks have leveraged their physical bullion by 100 to 1. This means for every 100 ounces of paper gold/silver that trade, there could be as little as 1 ounce of physical gold/silver in the vaults backing it. However, Mr. Christian sees no problem with this because he says "it has been persistently that way for decades" and there are "any number of mechanisms allowing for cash settlements".
What Mr. Christian fails to realize is, most investors around the world holding paper gold/silver believe they own physical gold/silver. There will come a time when these investors don't want cash settlements in U.S. dollars, but they will want the physical precious metals themselves. When investors around the globe eventually call for physical delivery of their precious metals, NIA believes it will result in the biggest short squeeze in the history of all commodities.
The physical silver market is now more tight than ever before. In the first quarter of 2010, the U.S. mint sold 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles, the most since the coin debuted in 1986 and up from 8,299,000 sold in the fourth quarter of 2009. All U.S. silver mines combined are currently producing only 40 million ounces of silver annually. This means the U.S. needs to use almost all of its silver production just to keep up with the demand for American Silver Eagle coins.
Silver closed this week at a 10-week high of $17.89 per ounce and a major short squeeze to the upside could be imminent. With the spotlight now on JP Morgan, NIA believes they will be less likely to naked short silver at these levels and manipulate the price down like in February. With the mainstream media blackout, it is important for NIA members to work harder than ever to spread the word and help expose what could be the largest fraud in the history of the world.
Posted by invester on :
I just started buying up physical bullion. 10 and 100 oz. bars. Silvertown, Johnson Mathey, and Pan Am. I think we see a major push as the disconnect between silver and gold is way to high. I think gold at $1500 and silver at $50+ within a couple of years.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by invester: I just started buying up physical bullion. 10 and 100 oz. bars. Silvertown, Johnson Mathey, and Pan Am. I think we see a major push as the disconnect between silver and gold is way to high. I think gold at $1500 and silver at $50+ within a couple of years.
are you getting physical delivery? there's been alot incidents where delivery has been very slow...
Posted by bullitt49 on :
I'm going to ask a stupid question but I have never dealt with physical bullion. how do you buy it and order it, and do you have them deliver it to your house? what is a reputable company to go with?
Posted by invester on :
From personal sellers, not the companies themselves, thus immediate delivery. I see silver moving quickly from here. We should blow past the 1980's $50 mark within a couple of years. It has a monetary value, but it also has a huge industrial purpose like Palladium. Only 20 or so pure silver mines in existence. Its not even close to replacement per year. It's a definite retirement metal.
Posted by bullitt49 on :
how do I hook up with personal sellers? should I go to coin shops or are they gouging prices? any info would be appreciated. I've been collecting silver coins since I was a kid but would like to add some silver to my assets. thanks again.
Posted by invester on :
quote:Originally posted by bullitt49: how do I hook up with personal sellers? should I go to coin shops or are they gouging prices? any info would be appreciated. I've been collecting silver coins since I was a kid but would like to add some silver to my assets. thanks again.
Well, Ebay... also, Google "your city, and silver bullion sellers". When shopping Ebay only buy from VERY reputable sellers. There are also a ton of silver mints. Silvertowne.com That should get you started.
Posted by buckstalker on :
Apmex.com is one I've been dealing with...
Also been buying on eBay using Bing cashback
Posted by bullitt49 on :
great information, thanks for the help invester and buckstalker.
Posted by invester on :
quote:Originally posted by buckstalker: Apmex.com is one I've been dealing with...
Also been buying on eBay using Bing cashback
Yep, I agree, Apmex as well.
Posted by glassman on :
i like silver esp old coins, even scrap coins which are not always pure so you have to study what they are, for instance? a 1965 keenedy half dollar is only 40% while a '64 is 90%-
i had some bags of scrap coins that they swore were in stock take 6 months to deliver very early last year, the price actually dropped after my order and i insisted on a refund, it wasn't much tho
i go round to several convenience stores of the mom and pops type every month and buy what they have saved for me at 5 times face right now, it was 4 times face for awhile... it adds up and it's fun..
i've seen it move up looking like it was going to run and then the paper traders got control again on several occasions. it's going to go up in the long run tho, and coins will be easier to trade then bullion IMO...
i have some collectible coins that have gone up much better than the price of silver.
Posted by invester on :
Read this. This may help the layman.
The World's Cumulative Gold and Silver Production Part 1
This is the first installment of a planned 7-part series:
Part 1 - The World's Cumulative Silver and Gold Production. Documenting the total amount of silver and gold produced since recorded history.
Part 2 - The Silver Deficit. Documenting the silver production/consumption deficit since 1939.
Part 3 - The Real Silver Deficit. Answering the questions of "How much silver has been consumed by industry?" and "In what potentially marketable accessible forms does it remain?"
Part 4 - The Illogical Performance of the Gold to Silver ratio Since 1848. Looking at silver and gold's production growth since 1848, and contrasting both this measurement and that of their shrinking ratio of comparative rarity to the ever-widening market price ratio between the two.
Part 5 - Why the Depressed Prices? A brief look at the amount of silver stockpiles held in the early 1900's, as well as some interesting quotes dating back several decades that made the bullish case for silver, unwittingly or not.
Part 6 - What Happened in 1980? Did production increase? Did extraordinary amounts of scrap silver come to market? -- What to expect in any future stratospheric price rise.
Part 7 - The Future of Silver. An overview of silver's fundamentals, focusing in on industrial usage and it's growing number of applications. Also included will be my own short and long-term outlook, together with price predictions for 2006 and beyond.
Preface
I'm a relatively new face in the gold and silver bug community, and while attempting to conduct research of my own I found it frustrating that there did not seem to be any sort of comprehensive data source dealing with the subjects of silver and gold production and consumption. In an effort to change this, I've spent several hundred hours this past month perusing through thousands of pages of documents (namely, the Minerals Yearbooks (1933-2004)). It is my hope that this series of articles will serve as reliable reference material for all future writers, researchers, believers and skeptics, saving them all much time and effort better spent breaking new ground in the ever thickening plot behind…
Those precious two, Of gold and silver hue, "You missed them too?" "Boy, how they flew!"
"Total silver production from pre-history till 2001 is estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to have been about 1.26 million metric tons (Mt), one half of which was mined in the last 62 year period." (Page 8)
1.26 Mt x 32,150.75 ounces/ton = 40.51 billion ounces + 2.46 billion (production from 2001-2005) = 42.97 billion ounces
Cumulative Silver Production = 42.97 billion ounces
Source 2 (multiple)
The History of Silver (3000BC-1493AD)
Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook (1493-1930) (Billions of Ounces)
Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook (1931-1993) The Silver Institute (1995-2004) (millions of ounces)
*Free World:
In the years 1939-1991, total world production numbers are not exact in nature due to a lack of data coming from the communist world:
Listed in order of estimated silver production, the Communist World consisted of: U.S.S.R, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, China, North Korea, and Poland. Russia contributed the vast majority of the above group's silver production, mining an estimated 80% of their cumulative total (25M ounces).
Russia's share increased to 38M ounces/year by 1970 (the others remain much the same) Russia's share increases to 43M ounces/year by 1975 (the others remain much the same). Russia's share increases to 46M ounces/year by 1979 (the others remain much the same). Russia's share increases to 48M ounces/year by 1989 (the others remain much the same). Beginning in 1991 Russia's share begins to decrease, and in 2004 they produced only 37.9 M ounces. All these numbers are added to the above total, I just wanted to make this issue more clear. In truth, I wouldn't be surprised if the above world cumulative total should actually be a little less due to a possible over estimation of communist Russia's mining productivity, as is evidenced by their declining production numbers since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991.
Compiling All of the Above Data…
Cumulative Silver Production = 42.62 billion ounces
Source 3 (multiple)
From: "Silver Products and Production". Encyclopedia Britannica, 1974 Ed.
"Total world production up to 1970 was just under 30 billion accumulated ounces." (Let's use 29.5B)
If we add to this the 15.25B ounces that were produced since then (1970-2004) based upon the data from Source 2 then…
Cumulative Silver Production = 44.75 billion ounces
Source 4 (multiple)
The History of Silver (3000BC-1492)
Continuing from The History of Silver (1493-1900)
United States Geological Survey (USGS) Data (Link) The Silver Institute (1995-2004)
Compiling All of the Above…
Cumulative Silver Production = 48.87 billion ounces
Source 5:
Marion Butler estimated in 1999 (Link) that a total of 40.4 Billion ounces of silver had been produced since 3000BC. If you add to this the amount of silver produced between 1999 and 2004 (3.05B) you get…
Cumulative Silver Production = 43.50 billion ounces
A Complete Summation of the Silver Data
Average Cumulative World Silver Production = 44.542 billion ounces
Pg. 88 Minerals Yearbook 1942 "Normally, 5 to 10 percent of world gold output is consumed by industry; the remaining 90 to 95 percent is used for monetary purposes."
"Of the estimated 150,000 tons of all gold ever mined, about 15% is thought to have been lost, used in dissipative industrial uses, or otherwise was unrecoverable or unaccounted for."
Therefore, the average amount of gold consumed by industry or lost = 11.25% based upon the above sources.
Source 1 provides it's own percentage of attrition (i.e. lost gold), so this value of 11.24% will only be used to evaluate Sources 2 and 3. Source 1 (multiple):
"The best estimates available suggest that the total volume of gold mined over history is approximately 153,000 tonnes, of which around 63% has been mined since 1950. The upward trend in annual production is now leveling off, due not least to a considerable slowdown in exploration spending in the late 1990s. Independent analysts are of the belief that mine output will remain flat for the next few years and may even drop slightly." (Year-end 2004)
153,000 tonnes x 32,150.75 ounces/ton x .8875* = 4.37 billion ounces
"Of the estimated 150,000 tons of all gold ever mined, about 15% is thought to have been lost, used in dissapative industrial uses, or otherwise was unrecoverable or unaccounted for. Of the remaining 128,000 tons, central banks hold an estimated 32,000 tons as official stocks, and about 96,000 tons is held privately in coin, bullion, or jewelry." (Year-end 2004)
150,000 x 32,150.75 ounces/ton x .8875 = 4.28 billion ounces
"World production at this time climbed to 280 tonnes in 1852 and thence to almost 300 tonnes as Australia. Production was lifted onto an even higher place in 1886 with the discovery of the huge gold reefs… in South Africa."
Minerals Yearbook 1932-1933
USGS Data (1933-2002)
GFMS Data (2003-2004)
Since an estimated 90% of all the gold ever mined was mined after 1848 (Gold History):
Average Cumulative World Gold Production = 4.25 billion ounces
Ratios: What Nonsense they Reveal
We'll deal more extensively with the silver to gold ratio in Part 4 of this series, but just for fun let's find out what the ratio is in terms of the total amount of silver and gold ever mined in the history of the world:
44.55 billion ounces of silver/ 4.25 billion ounces of gold = a 10.5 to 1 ratio
Hmmm…This says nothing of the silver deficit and yet the ratio already reveals that at today's prices ($9/ounce vs. $540/ounce) silver trades at an 82.5% discount to gold, or conversely, it could be said that gold is overvalued by about 570% in terms of silver. Of the two ways of looking at the comparative price, I'll most certainly choose the former as I believe both silver and gold will be going up wildly in price in the coming years. Most would agree that neither gold nor silver is undervalued in terms of the dollar, so the only way to look at this situation is to say that silver is undervalued in terms of the dollar and gold. This means that I expect silver to far outperform any gains seen in the price of gold, even if gold doubles or triples in price within these next 2 years. The ratio will shrink, and silver will rise much faster, drawn up, as if by a vacuum in space, a vacuum created by the long-term market manipulation, short selling, and government dishoarding.
Don't believe me? Well then, you'll just have to wait until next time when we'll be stumbling into the "Silver Zone", and taking a much closer look at the much-lauded silver deficit.
Posted by glassman on :
just keep in mind that no matter how unlikely, a big find is always possible but it's always going to be worth soemthing and way better than cash
Posted by invester on :
44.55 billion ounces of silver/ 4.25 billion ounces of gold = a 10.5 to 1 ratio
So were talking about $100+ per ounce on a weighted ratio. Silver is also used as an industrial metal. The disconnect is unreal.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by invester: 44.55 billion ounces of silver/ 4.25 billion ounces of gold = a 10.5 to 1 ratio
So were talking about $100+ per ounce on a weighted ratio. Silver is also used as an industrial metal. The disconnect is unreal.
yeah and a couple years back? somebody in Brtain claimed a patent that would make silver less prone to oxidation but i haven't heard much about it since it was announced.
they still have to use gold instead of silver for certain sensitive electronic applications where oxidation is totally unacceptable. Satellites for instance, and miltary stuff often requires gold contacts instead of silver (they are both outstanding conductors)
Posted by invester on :
Glassman, you wrote "i go round to several convenience stores of the mom and pops type every month and buy what they have saved for me at 5 times face right now, it was 4 times face for awhile... it adds up and it's fun.." what do you buy from them. I go to the banks and convenience stores and buy their silver dollars and half dollars. I pay them face value for the coins. is this what you are talking about? I'm just curious about paying 4 and 5 times face.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
FWIW...I'll echoe Buck and Invester about APMEX...Been using them the last couple of years and have never had a problem taking delivery of exactly what I ordered...
quote:Originally posted by bullitt49: Glassman, you wrote "i go round to several convenience stores of the mom and pops type every month and buy what they have saved for me at 5 times face right now, it was 4 times face for awhile... it adds up and it's fun.." what do you buy from them. I go to the banks and convenience stores and buy their silver dollars and half dollars. I pay them face value for the coins. is this what you are talking about? I'm just curious about paying 4 and 5 times face.
they sell you the silver coins they collected for face?
they can take them to any trader and get 4 to 7 times face.
this guy pays 8.5 to 9.2 per face on 90% (scrap coins)
at 5X i can flip to him today for a small profit, but i am only buying for my kids anyway
Posted by bullitt49 on :
glassman, i'm buying the silver dollars and half dollars from dates 1980 and earlier for face. I know they're worth more than face value but that is what I'm paying for them.
Posted by invester on :
Up 2.5%
Posted by invester on :
This should be a warning to the silver futures manipulation.
Moore Capital Fined in Platinum Manipulation Case (Update1) Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Whitney McFerron
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Moore Capital Management LP agreed to pay $25 million to settle charges that a former portfolio manager attempted to manipulate platinum and palladium futures during a surge in prices two years ago, U.S. regulators said.
A portfolio manager, who wasn’t identified, used buy orders in the closing moments of trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange to boost settlement prices from November 2007 through May 2008, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said today in an e-mailed statement. The orders “frequently accounted for a significant portion of the volume” in the two thinly traded markets, the agency said.
Platinum futures rose 39 percent from Nov. 1, 2007, to May 30, 2008, touching a record $2,308.80 an ounce on March 4, and palladium jumped 17 percent, touching a six-year high of $600 an ounce, also on March 4. Both palladium platinum are used in jewelry and pollution-control components for cars.
New York-based Moore, which manages about $15 billion, said in a separate statement that the portfolio manager left the company in the fall of 2008. None of Moore’s principals nor its current management were involved in any improper trading, and none were accused of any wrongdoing, the company said.
The manager sought to influence the exchange’s volume- weighted settlement price with buy orders for 20 to 100 contracts, according to the agency. A platinum contract is 50 ounces, and a palladium contract is 100 ounces.
To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney McFerron in Chicago at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net.
Posted by invester on :
Up 1.5%
Posted by bullitt49 on :
I have a question a little off topic here. I got change today and they gave me a Michigan state quarter but it is gold colored. It doesn't look like some aftermarket dye job but it looks like it was done like that at the mint. Did they put out a coin like that or is this an error coin. Just thought maybe someone would have some info. Thanks.
Posted by invester on :
I just took delivery at Apmex for $18.80, now $19.36
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by bullitt49: I have a question a little off topic here. I got change today and they gave me a Michigan state quarter but it is gold colored. It doesn't look like some aftermarket dye job but it looks like it was done like that at the mint. Did they put out a coin like that or is this an error coin. Just thought maybe someone would have some info. Thanks.
thanks Glassman, I didn't know they made them in 24k.
Posted by invester on :
Up 1.2%
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Posted by Happy Valley on :
SLV...Grabbing some May calls today...
Posted by invester on :
Gold is at $1200 and silver has dropped a few ticks. LoL.
Posted by a surfer on :
I think we see 20's by the end of the month.
Just a guess.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: SLV...Grabbing some May calls today...
Yesterdays sell off was an absolute joke...My SLV May $18 calls are up over 80% today...
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley:
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: SLV...Grabbing some May calls today...
Yesterdays sell off was an absolute joke...My SLV May $18 calls are up over 80% today...
atta boy. More than one way to skin a cat
Posted by invester on :
I'm 3000 oz. hard silver. Over 2000 to ship. I've been wrong before, but not wrong that often. I'll be 10000 oz. shortly.
Posted by invester on :
Up 3%
Posted by a surfer on :
Funny the disconnect lately between Gold and silver.
The events unfolding are all catalysts for a continuation of a long term bull run for both but I think the world is slowly seeing the potential in the white metal.
All we need is 2% of the gold money and we will quadruple in price.
Posted by a surfer on :
over 5%.
Looks like someone wants delivery.
Posted by invester on :
Up $1.12 If you break $20, I see $30 soon after.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
After todays move, I am really looking foward to next Fridays report...At some point these guys are gonna need to start covering...I have as much patience as it takes...JMO DYODD
Posted by invester on :
The chart for this is unreal. With Gold at $1200+, and the SEC and government finding manipulation in every market, I think the manipulators will let this go. I see this running. Gold $2000 Silver $75+ within a year.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
I just said this. Ha Ha. My silver holdings are about to make me a ton of money. Strange timing. I just started buying silver 6 months ago. Its been in this same trading range for 20 years. Looks like I won't have to wait long.
The investigations stem from a story in The Post, which reported on a whistleblower questioning JPMorgan's involvement in suppressing the price of silver by "shorting" the precious metal around the release of news announcements that should have sent the price upwards.
Not only are shorts going to cover, but the manipulation will stop. This will break that $20 quickly in my opinion. I see Silver at that $50 soon.
Posted by invester on :
Bought another 1000 oz. on this manipulation summary. I'm now seeing an SEC, CFTC and other departments wake up. Not just wake up, but the wrong people in the job, with the lack of knowledge were running all agencies. The people in charge were not just the wrong people for the job, they just didn't know what they were doing. This has been happening for many years. W-street Reg. is just now coming under fire. Don't be a hero. I like ONLY Gold Silver and U.S. stocks. With the massive Trillion dollar bailout of the EU, you need to know where the structurally sound countries and commodities are. Gold, Silver and U.S Stocks. Especially with the Euro now going to parity with the Dollar. Great time to take a European trip. LoL.
Posted by invester on :
Silver well over $19, and $20 for delivery. I see this moving much higher from here. Bullion or SLV is the way to play.
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by invester: I just said this. Ha Ha. My silver holdings are about to make me a ton of money. Strange timing. I just started buying silver 6 months ago. Its been in this same trading range for 20 years. Looks like I won't have to wait long.
The investigations stem from a story in The Post, which reported on a whistleblower questioning JPMorgan's involvement in suppressing the price of silver by "shorting" the precious metal around the release of news announcements that should have sent the price upwards.
OK OK we get it invester....you're the best. LOL, Just kidding.
Good job man. I have seen plenty of your picks produce. Very impressive!
I remember Ted Butler saying years ago we will go through periods of massive volatility in the process of the rise in the price of silver.
So far he is correct.
He has also been warning about JP Morgan and the big 4 banks naked shorting since the summer of 06. it's what triggered me to buy more.
I think the out lash from the shorts is coming to a head as we speak.
I would not doubt we see 20-40% swings and possibly more, just like the past run from 19 to 27.86.
Once we get back to a 16-1 ratio of gold to silver I will start selling. But just some.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by a surfer: OK OK we get it invester....you're the best. LOL, Just kidding.
Good job man. I have seen plenty of your picks produce. Very impressive!
I remember Ted Butler saying years ago we will go through periods of massive volatility in the process of the rise in the price of silver.
So far he is correct.
He has also been warning about JP Morgan and the big 4 banks naked shorting since the summer of 06. it's what triggered me to buy more.
I think the out lash from the shorts is coming to a head as we speak.
I would not doubt we see 20-40% swings and possibly more, just like the past run from 19 to 27.86.
Once we get back to a 16-1 ratio of gold to silver I will start selling. But just some.
Even when we were paying a $4.00+ premium to take delivery of physical (remember that BS walkdown to $8-$9 at the end of 09) , most of the talking heads dismissed everything Ted Butler had to say as nothing more than conspiracy theory...Wonder how they feel about his writings now???
Thanks for this thread Surf...Never even thought about Gold/Silver before I started reading some of your posts here back in early 08...
Posted by a surfer on :
29.00 Unreal.
Your welcome Happy Valley. It's been a pleasure.
For some reason this feels like just the beginning to me.
The real prize awaits the patient.
Posted by a surfer on :
Just broke $33.00
Looks like a breakout....
Major moves up and down lie ahead.
Thank God I don't have a sell button.
Bets as to when we hit $40.??
This is getting groovy.
Posted by a surfer on :
$34.26 Short SQEEEEEEEZE. Bunch of FTD's acomin....
Posted by glassman on :
i don't wanna sell even if it hits 50$ surf.... but i may have to force myself to.
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: i don't wanna sell even if it hits 50$ surf.... but i may have to force myself to.
Maybe just a bit....and maybe for franks only.
$35.45 now.
I think it's a hold for another 3-5 years minimum.
This is a wealth builder in front of us....
Posted by a surfer on :
$36.70
Here is a letter my dad received from some friends of his....
Bill, A little over two years ago you suggested that silver would be a good investment. I listened and put 25% of our investments in silver. Since then our return is 130%. The article you sent today was two years behind your advice. Thank you very much for seeing the future and sharing with us. Mike and Barbara
Posted by a surfer on :
$38.50
Looks like a push is underway.
$40 coming IMO.
I am more interested in seeing where she settles after this run.
No question that speculation has crept into the formula.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Yup, Loving this Surf...
Sitting on my physical but the daily swings in Silver and Gold have made SLV and GDX weekly's some of the best trading vehicles around...JMO
Posted by a surfer on :
$39.64
Why Silver Will Go UP for Years to Come!
(Floods of paper money!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, April 7th, 2011
1. No nation on earth is using silver as a circulating medium of exchange. The State of Utah is leading the way by making it legal tender.
2. All nations on earth are using paper for money, which is about as wise as building houses out of straw. The amount of paper money is uncountable, and is constantly soaring to new highs. The USA stopped reporting the amounts of money in the banks back in 2006, and the banks in 2008 started depositing a lot of their bailout money with the Fed banks, making it even harder to track. All of that marks the beginning of hyperinflation, which appears to be starting now.
3. The Federal annual deficit, which is how much they spent more than they took in, is $1.66 trillion, or $830 billion for the first half of fiscal 2011. Does that count QEII? What was not counted in that? How reliable are the figures? If the figures are wrong, are the real figures likely to be bigger or smaller, and by how much?
4. The silver market remains tiny. "World investment rose by an impressive 40 percent last year to 279.3 million troy ounces (Moz), resulting in a net flow into silver of $5.6 billion, almost doubling 2009’s figure." How reliable are the figures?
Recap: New US Debt: $830 billion in 6 months. Recap: New Silver buying: $5.6 billion, all year.
Essay assignment, compare and contrast those two numbers.
Which one is bigger? Which one is smaller?
What is likely to change? What is likely to stay the same?
If the US government spends new paper money that it does not have, is that inflationary? Will that make the new dollars tend to go down in value? If so, by how much?
Are silver prices likely to go up, as new money buys silver to protect itself? In your opinion, much new money will be likely to buy silver next year? How much do you think the silver price will continue to be driven up, in the next year, by such buying?
Is the US government likely to suddenly balance the budget by next year, or will the spending like a drunken sailor be likely to continue?
If you convince your friends to buy silver, are they more likely to thank you, or not, as certain trends and fundamentals continue?
Posted by a surfer on :
The Federal Reserve Must Implement QE3
Gold prices surged today to a new all time high of $1,463.70 per ounce, while silver prices soared to a new 31-year high of $39.785 per ounce. Silver is now up 129% since NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade on December 11th, 2009, at $17.40 per ounce. The gold/silver ratio is now down to 37, compared to a gold/silver ratio of 66 when NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade. This means that not only is silver up 129% in terms of dollars since December 11th, 2009, but silver has also increased in purchasing power by 1.78X in terms of gold.
Gold is the world's most stable asset and the best gauge of inflation. This brand new breakout in the price of gold leads us to believe that the Federal Reserve is getting ready to unleash QE3 at the end of June. The Fed will surely not call it QE3, but NIA can pretty much guarantee that the Fed will continue on with their purchases of U.S. treasuries. If the Fed pauses after QE2, it will mean that treasury bond yields will need to surge to a level where they attract enough private sector and foreign central bank buyers in order to not only support the funding of our rapidly rising budget deficits, but to support the redemption of maturing treasury securities.
In the month of March, the U.S. government spent more than eight times its monthly tax receipts, when you include the money spent for maturing U.S. treasuries. The U.S. treasury netted $128.18 billion in tax receipts during the month of March, but paid out a total of $1.05 trillion, which included $49.8 billion in Social Security benefits, $47.4 billion in Medicare benefits, $22.58 billion in Medicaid benefits, and $37.9 billion in defense spending. However, by far, the U.S. paid out the most for maturing U.S. treasuries, which equaled $705.3 billion.
In order for the U.S. government to stay afloat with only $128.18 billion in tax receipts, it had to spend $72.5 billion from its balance of cash, which ended the month at $118.1 billion, and sell $18 billion worth of TARP assets. But most importantly, the U.S. treasury had to sell $786.5 billion in new treasury bonds.
The U.S. government is the largest ponzi scheme in world history. We can only fund our government expenditures and pay off maturing debt plus interest, by issuing larger amounts of new debt. Americans are lucky that we have been blessed with record low interest rates for an unprecedented amount of time, but NIA believes that as we roll over U.S. treasuries in the future, we will have to refinance them at much higher interest rates. Our national debt is now so large that interest payments on our debt will become the government's largest monthly expenditure.
If the Federal Reserve doesn't implement QE3, NIA believes it will just about guarantee a bursting of the U.S. bond bubble in the second half of 2011. If the Fed stops buying U.S. treasuries, there is a chance that we won't find foreign buyers for our bonds no matter how high interest rates rise. The world is waking up to the fact that the U.S. government is insolvent, and the benefits of propping up the U.S. dollar are no longer worth the expense to our foreign creditors. The U.S. government ponzi scheme will soon be exposed for the world to see.
Japan has been the most consistent buyer of U.S. treasuries. With Japan needing to raise $300 billion to rebuild parts of their country that were destroyed by the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster, we believe they will be forced to dump their U.S. treasuries, at a time when the U.S. desperately needs Japan to roll over their treasuries into larger amounts of new ones. Not only that, but with Arab revolutions taking place across major Saudi states and the U.S. beginning to occupy Libya for no reason at all, we will likely see Gulf states follow in Japan's footsteps and stop purchasing/dump U.S. treasuries. Plus, China appears to be becoming more reluctant to continue buying U.S. treasuries, and is positioning the yuan to be the world's new reserve currency. Without Japan, Saudi states, and China, there will be no buyers left for U.S. government bonds.
The fact is, with no QE3, we could literally see the 10-year bond yield double from 3.52% to north of 7%, overnight. Even then, it is unlikely to attract foreign buyers and we will likely be faced with failing bond auctions, which would cause a massive rush out of the U.S. dollar and trigger the currency crisis NIA has been predicting. NIA sees no other option for the Fed, but for it to continue on with its endless money printing and destructive inflationary policies.
Federal Reserve officials discussed last month in closed-door meetings the possibility that rising commodity prices could cause inflation. The fact is, rising commodity prices don't cause inflation, they are a symptom of inflation. When the Fed leaves interest rates at 0% for over two years and prints $600 billion as part of QE2, that money printing and easy money is the inflation of our money supply, and rising prices are the result.
The Fed is narrow-minded and continues to focus on the CPI, which only grew last month by 2.11% year-over-year. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says he expects rising commodity prices to create a “transitory” boost in U.S. inflation. Meaning, when the CPI rises even higher in the upcoming months, Bernanke will likely place the blame on what he considers to be temporarily high oil and soft commodity prices.
The CEO of Wal-Mart is now saying that U.S. inflation is “going to be very serious” and that Wal-Mart is already seeing “cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.” He predicts that because of huge increases in raw material costs, along with soaring labor costs in China, and skyrocketing fuel costs around the world, retail prices will start increasing at Wal-Mart and all of their competitors in June, especially for clothing and food.
When asked about the predictions of Wal-Mart's CEO, Bernanke said that he expects price pressures to remain largely stable, but then added, "Wal-Mart has more data than the government does." Bernanke was also quoted as saying, "We have to monitor inflation and inflation expectations extremely closely because if my assumptions prove not to be correct, then we would certainly have to respond to that and ensure that we maintain price stability.”
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates tomorrow for the first time since 2008. Many people are now speculating that the Federal Reserve will begin raising the Federal Funds Rate at the end of 2011. NIA is receiving many new 'NIAnswers' and email questions on a daily basis, asking us what will happen to gold and silver prices if the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates.
In our opinion, the Federal Reserve raising the Fed Funds Rate would actually be very bullish for gold and silver prices, because it will serve as an admission that even the Fed believes inflation is becoming a major problem and beginning to spiral out of control. Historically, the best performing time period for precious metals has been when the Fed begins to raise artificially low rates. Remember, when the Fed begins to raise rates, they will probably raise rates only 1/4 or possibly 1/2 of a percentage point at a time. Interest rates of 1% or 2%, although higher than 0%, are still artificially low and will do nothing to curtail inflation. NIA believes the real rate of U.S. price inflation is now 6% and we will need to see the Fed Funds Rate rise to a level that is higher than the real rate of price inflation, if the Fed wants to have any hope of preventing hyperinflation.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Just cracked $40... Posted by BooDog on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: Just cracked $40...
Congrats!!!!!!! doing some dd on TLR to see just what kind of future they have.
Posted by a surfer on :
$40.93
Silver selling for 5-7 dollars over spot on ebay....Clasic!
Today's Range 29.05 - 32.54 pretty crazy. Think there was some panic selling in there that helped break my support level @ 30.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Yeah, I think you are right Boo...Funny how Gold and Silver dumped hard all day then CME hikes margins on Gold, Silver and Copper after the close...Maybe it was pure coincidence but the whole move on Friday reeks to me...
Holding some GLD calls for next week...Volatility is so high right now that options premiums are holding up very well despite the big flush after London closed on Friday...
Very curious as to what happens to Gold and Silver when Asia opens up on Sunday, considering the bulk of this rug pull happened in New York after London closed and Asia was not around to help stop the bleeding...
Posted by BooDog on :
silver futures back over $32, man what a dip that was.
Pretty crazy HV, no one trusts anyone. lol
Posted by BooDog on :
Broke a pretty good support level when the $25's fell. Decent support 22.50 to 23.50 futures low $23.52.
If things happen in "threes" today would be day 2.
Posted by BooDog on :
low 22.22, thought 22.50 would hold no problem. Put the chart on the weekly and makes me wonder if 22 will hold. Some serious manipulation out there. Using this and GLD as an indicator for some mining stocks. passed on MDW today for now.
Posted by a surfer on :
Been one hell of a ride here. We'll see how long this little rally lasts.
I don't see this below 19 again. But who knows...
Posted by a surfer on :
Been awhile since I visited this thread but with everybody bearish and Gold closing in on the June lows, I think we are getting close. Looking for some type of capitulation event to put in the double bottom. Will be loading GLD leaps on anything sub $1200...JMO
Posted by Peaser on :
Waiting for early-mid 2014 to load up on Gold and Silver. It all depends on the Fed.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Almost there... May see a brief dip sub $1180 but I don't think it lasts long imo...Big money traders know there are a ton of stops in this area, I have a hard time believing they won't use one of the upcoming low volume holiday sessions to trigger them.
Gold drastically underperformed this year, I have to believe there is a pile of sidelined PM money as a result. Should see a significant rally in Q1 on fund re-accumulation alone. China is the wild card news event for 2014 imo.
Anybody still short come first of the year is on the wrong side...JMHO
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Insane action in gold and silver today...Went after the stops and shorts covered into the rug pull. I knew the banksters couldn't resist the low hanging fruit in the $1180 area. The result is what happens when a trade as crowded as the gold short begins to unwind. We'll see if it's just eoy unwinding or the double bottom reversal I've been waiting for...GLTYA
Posted by Happy Valley on :
What a start to the new year!!! Miners starting to take off here. GDX making a run at the top of the downward channel, break through and the miners start really cranking in the short/med term...jmo
Posted by BooDog on :
WTG Happy! looking through some on my miners list. AUMN up pretty good. Guess I've been slacking on my DD for that sector. Knew you were making a good pick though! Big push for NG also.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Thanks Boo... We need the miners to break through the top of this bear channel. The next few days will tell us if this is a legitimate sector rotation or another pop and fade...jmo
Very curious as to what kind of eod marching orders (if any) the bots get today...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Short covering starting here in the $1250's, panic cover starts if we squeeze to a $1300 handle. jmo
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Gold +$14 Silver +.35
Miners really taking off today, big volume in the GDX June $25's...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Gold @ $1270's/Silver @ $20's...Watch them scramble when that $1300 handle hits. jmo...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: Short covering starting here in the $1250's, panic cover starts if we squeeze to a $1300 handle. jmo
Gold @ $1317's/Silver @ $21.08...
The squeeze continues in London this morning...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Miners roaring again today. Massive gains off the December lows. GDX @ $26.60's, not a bad spot to lock in some gains jmo...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Taking profits here, short term top is in @ $1350 jmo. I think we see a pullback before $1500's later this year and into next. Will look to re-accumulate calls in SLW, GG, AUY, GLD and GDX @ $1300ish...Hell of a ride, congrats to those who joined me Posted by Happy Valley on :
Gold @ $1311/Silver @ $20. Almost there...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Gold $1300 target hit today...Sitting right at the intersection of the golden cross on the chart. Looking for one more stop hunt pullback sub $1300 to get long GLD, GDX and GG calls for the ride to $1500+...jmo
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Stealthy option flow in GDXJ & GDX over the last couple of weeks...I'm long my list of usual suspects with 2018 strikes but if players sweep up weakness or roll up current bets in these etfs, it's time to get long size here. jmo
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Does anybody even read these boards anymore? Anyways, not much for option flow but Dimon put a beat down on BTC yesterday, down $475 today. Additionally, some nice chart set ups on the miners today, loaded WPM Calls off the 200 MA test and bounce. PAAS, heavyweight with GDXJ is getting close too, golden cross in the next week or so. jmo
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Big volume in the GDX, Oct $26 calls, 3 x OI...NUGT $43-$44 active as well...
Posted by NR on :
I still lurk once a month or so... Holding HL, KGC, MUX, and SBGL, hoping that gold and silver will do something besides move sideways. Watching GORO, CDE, ABX and seriously considering a position in GG. Good Luck and always do your own DD.
Posted by NR on :
Losing my shirt... buh-bye gold and silver prices. Look out below =(
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by NR: Losing my shirt... buh-bye gold and silver prices. Look out below =(
Solid final 3 weeks of the year and somebody couldn’t get enough of the GDX, Feb. $25s on Friday. Almost 60k traded vs. OI of 2,500.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
NEM last week and PAAS, GG and GORO with the option flow today...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Add PVG to the list, March $10’s hitting...
Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: Add PVG to the list, March $10’s hitting...
6000 June $12s joining the party...
Posted by NR on :
Yeah nice eoy/boy rally. I did end up taking a position in GG around $13.50. Still watching GORO.
Posted by NR on :
OK still holding GG, waiting (forever) for the rally over 1350 in gold and $20 in silver if it ever comes... Nice rally today, seems like we are right on the edge of a big move, but where does it go from here? Also still holding FSM, HL, MUX, KGC and SBGL. If gold and silver prices rally further from here, I will exit KGC and SBGL, and reduce my positions in FSM and HL.
Posted by NR on :
...and back to the bottom of the range. I'm watching closely cause if it goes any lower from here, it's going A LOT lower.
Posted by NR on :
Gold vs the Dollar... Will the dollar rally further? If it does, will it drive gold prices lower? The suspense is killing me. My gut says with fiat being printed like mad and debt at huge levels, markets at record highs, gold prices are ultimately going up. Economy seems ok for the moment, but for how long?
Geopolitics play a factor in prices; just look around, seems bullish for Gold/Silver... Iran deal coming up, North Korea, South Korea, Marilyn Monroe...
If inflation rears it's ugly head, gold should go up too, along with other commodities. Oil, etc.
Upside seems greater than downside, so I'm still holding all my mining plays and picked up an oil play that relates to NG as well since I've had some success with those types of plays in the past.
Based on my entry points with most my mining stocks, I should be holding and should have even sold some to protect my principal, but against my better judgement I stayed put and prices seem to have leveled off for the short term. Going to be watching them like a hawk now.
Long term Gold and Silver charts look bullish, and IMO silver looks much better than gold. Will silver rally first and drag gold up with it, or will the dollar continue it's reversal of late, kill any rally, and drive gold to new lows? What does anyone else think?
Medium term they look bullish with silver looking the better than gold...
Short term, they seem at critical levels where, absent some other catalyst, they will turn lower, forcing gold below important support levels. Which of these factors will drive the price the most?
Sit and wait some more, my bet is made, where does the ball stop? Time (and my wallet) will tell if holding at 1300 was the right move. GL and DYODD
Posted by NR on :
Trump pulled out of Iran deal, should be bullish for gold and oil, at least short term.
Posted by NR on :
Down it went, below 1300 to about 1285, trending higher from there. Mining stocks seem to be bottomed out, even though gold is trading lower they didn't go down much. Still holding all my plays except SBGL, lost on that one. Everything else is going up or going sideways. The oil/NG play, HCLP worked out nicely. PM's are pretty crazy right now, Platinum worth less per/oz than Gold, and Silver doing better from a technical standpoint and less volatile than Gold. Feds minutes today suggest raise in June, but they are willing to let inflation go higher than 2%. Charts since lows around 1285 show uptrend, could just be a bounce before another selloff, but I'm still bullish on gold/silver long term, bearish on USD. Geopolitics don't seem to be doing much to prices for some reason. NK deal is in suspense, huge sanctions on Iran, who knows what's next.
Posted by NR on :
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Posted by NR on :
Well, guess it's pretty clear which way the price went. Interestingly, my gold stocks didn't really go down much they seem to be at the bottom.
Still holding GG, FSM, HL, MUX, and KGC. In retrospect I should have taken a small loss on KGC, but it seems to have bottomed for the time being so just gonna hold the bag on this one unless it stops dropping again. MUX and GG are up a bit, and FSM is still bullish, regardless of what gold prices do, might take some more profits off the table on that one soon if it rallies a bit more. Wish I could remember the name of the mining CEO that said this stock "was a steal" at it's current price shortly before I bought it. He was right and I cant remember the other two picks he mentioned.
Silver chart still looks better long term than gold, which also looks bullish long term. Short and Mid term is clearly bearish but my gut still tells me there is a million reasons to hold gold and keep a bullish sentiment long term. Too many reasons not to.
Tariffs on China could go into play tonight, and seems like it should be bullish for gold tomorrow. With the trade war about to kick off, I think shorts won't want to be on the wrong side over the weekend and gold prices will close a few dollars above open.
Is this a dead cat bounce for gold prices, and we are going lower still, or is this the higher low on a bullish long term chart? GL and do your own DD
Posted by NR on :
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Posted by NR on :
Well, did I pay through the nose by holding in July. Lost a couple hundred bucks, but oh well, it was money I could afford to lose anyway. That's what I get for listening to my gut instead of my head. Worst summer for gold possible. Hoping the bottom is 1200 but who knows. Silver? Are you even alive anymore? Every dog has it's day, just wondering when that day will be. Got my eye on GSV and EMRRF, they both have some great potential with good looking grades. Should have bought ABX at 11.10 when the CEO dumped $25 mil of his own money in after the merger, but was too gun shy after the beating I took this summer... GL everyone and do your own DD.
Posted by NR on :
Ok. The 1200 level held, and gold is moving back up towards 1300 and silver back above 15$. Took a position in GSV around 1.20/shr but it isn't doing much. EMRRF is still on my watch list but took a huge hit when drill results didn't match the surface finds. Took a position in ABX, now trading as GOLD after the merger with Randgold. I doubled my positions in GG, HL, FSM and MUX. Still holding KGC at a small loss, but will get rid of it when I hit close break even. FSM was one of two silver miners that showed Q3 profits with silver at 14/oz. I'll probably load up some more mining stocks if gold prices can stay above 1300, and sell a bunch if it doesn't. Short, Medium, and Long Term charts all look bullish, but gold feels overbought and 1300 is going to be a tough resistance to get through. Looking at a yearly chart, gold seems to have put in a higher low around 1200, it just needs that higher high above 1350 to confirm my long term opinion that gold is going back towards 2000/oz. GL and do your own DD.
Posted by NR on :
Sideways action in prices the last week or two, as gold is stuck between 1300s and 1320s, charts do look bullish, both short and long term imo. Still holding GSV, GOLD, HL, FSM, MUX and KGC. Still looking to lighten or get rid of my position in KGC when the price is right, earnings are on thursday so will reassess after. Sold ~25% of GG core position a while back for a small profit as gold hit 1324. Might take another position after the merger is approved. GG and GOLD have earnings tomorrow. Took a small position in EQXFF. This company is chaired by Ross Beaty of Pan-American silver and I think his game plan for success with this one is pure genius. However, this is a spec play similar to MUX imo.
Long term fundamentals for both gold and silver remain positive and short and long term charts are still bullish imo. Trade deal w china and gov shutdown will decide dollar direction, and ill be watching developments in both closely. However, I still am of the opinion that gold will test and break above 1350 this year, but more likely in the next 2 quarters. GL DYODD
Posted by NR on :
Well, gold is above 1400, as I predicted. Still holding GSV, GOLD, HL, FSM, MUX, KGC, NEM and EQFXX. I added some KL a few months ago at $33 and change and then sold 25% when it hit $45. I'll be holding KL for a very long time, as it is one of the best gold mining companies out there IMO. Also sold 25% of NEW and GOLD. I'm letting the rest ride until gold hits 1600+, which I am convinced gold will make a run for in the new 2 quarters. Silver is still lagging, but should explode if gold breaks 1450. It's not too late to jump on the silver train IMO, but GL and do your own DD.
Posted by NR on :
Gold closing in on 1600. Silver touched 18.50. Still holding KL, GOLD, NEM, HL, FSM, MUX, KGC, GSV. Sold 25% of EQFXX and picked up shares of USAS and KOOYF. STILL waiting for silver to catch up with gold. Wish I had grabbed some platinum at 800. GLTA, hope I'm not the only one here making money on the metals.
[ August 29, 2019, 00:58: Message edited by: NR ]
Posted by NR on :
Gold going sideways for some time now... Bouncing between ~1480 and ~1510. Silver between ~17 and ~18. Sold 25% of KL, GOLD, and NEM. Major miners have been moving up, but Jr's still lagging. Sold half of my KGC and bought more EQX. Still holding HL, FSM, MUX, USAS, GSV and KOOYF. Picked up some shares of GSFXX and WLBMF, then quickly sold 25% of both for a small profit. Also tried a quick flip of SLV yesterday, as gold and silver prices usually have a huge range on a FED decision day. It didn't work out as planned, so sold ~90% of the initial position for a wash, and kept a tiny bit as I'm still bullish on PMs. Got my eyes on PPLT, and I may pick up even more EQX, as they had a fantastic 3Q, and have quite a few possible catalysts in 4Q and also in Q1&2 of next year. The company chairman, Ross Beaty is known as "The Broken Slot Machine", and it looks like he may very will live up to his nickname with Equinox Gold. GLTA and DYODD.
Posted by NR on :
Well here we are, a brand new year, and gold has FINALLY broken through 1600 in intraday trading and silver is above 18.50. Gold has hit my medium term target, so it was time to take some money off the table.
Here is a quick update of my long positions.
I doubled my KL position after the price dip when it bid for Detour, then sold 25% today when the price hit 47 for a nice little flip. I sold the rest of my NEM shares at $39, though with the current price sitting at about 44, I realized I should have at least held on to a few of them. I haven't changed my positing in GOLD or KGC. I sold 25% of second position in EQX after the NYSE listing and proposed merger with LMCNF. EQX remains my largest position in any stock. Still (bag) holding HL, though I will shed some shares once it gets closer to my lowest entry point. HL has finally resolved the strike at Lucky Friday, so it should start moving up over the next few months as production moves back towards pre-strike levels. Same goes for MUX, holding at a slight loss, but if gold prices keep moving up and share prices follow, I'll lower my position in this stock as well. I still believe in the company long term. Holding USAS at a slight loss, and same with GSV. I sold 25% of KOOYF. I sold 50% of GSFXX for a slight profit and sold 25% more of WLBMF after it's last drill results. Still holding my SLV at a slight gain, but I'm not sure why Silver isn't moving up as hard as gold. I've also added two new stocks since Oct. RNKLF, and TGCDF. I've already sold 25% of both of those stocks for a slight gain, but I'll look to sell most of TGCDF as the price continues to go up because I don't really like the jurisdiction of it's assets. I'm holding it with a tight stop.
I have a few more I'm looking at, but still doing DD on them. I hope everyone is doing well with their trades! GLTA
Posted by NR on :
Gold just hit 1800. Silver hasn't really broken out yet but the chart looks like its ready to go. Anyone else making money in the PM sector?
Posted by NR on :
Buffett just took a stake in Barrick with gold at all time highs. I'm up 35% this year and I believe gold is going higher and silver will follow. GLTA
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...FWIW I Was able to pick up a few Johnson Matthey bars locally at .75 over spot...The deals are out there, just have to hit the pavement a little to find them...GLTYA
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, most of the talking heads dismissed everything Ted Butler had to say as nothing more than conspiracy theory...Wonder how they feel about his writings now???![[Cool]](cool.gif)