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Author Topic: Gap-downs
PCola77
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NANX I see a low on the 18th of 6.53 and a high on the 19th of 6. SO that's less than 10%.

Jade, on the 17th I see a low of 5.06 and the 18th a high of 4.59, which is also less than 10%.

What am i missing?

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PCola77
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by the way, if I'm being too critcal, let me know. I love the idea and the setup, just trying to understand it better, and help debug.
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fourseven
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no, this is good.. i could use the help finding all the mistakes..

the percentage drop listed in the table is calculated using the close of day before gap and the open of gap day .. so it's a bit off from the actual gap calculation.

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the market is not your mother

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PCola77
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So did you look at NANX and JADE to see what I did differently in my calc?
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Free Muney
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huge gap down today on a great company. RVBD released better than expected earnings, but due to down grade by citi, and an overall red tech day this is down 27+ % I think this will bouce tomorrow.

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Contrarian views always appreciated.... :p

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PCola77
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All the stuff I am reading says in line or worse than expected. Can you post a link for the "better than expected" part?

quote:
Originally posted by Free Muney:
huge gap down today on a great company. RVBD released better than expected earnings, but due to down grade by citi, and an overall red tech day this is down 27+ % I think this will bouce tomorrow.


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fourseven
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gaps today:

ALTR
ANAD
BRCM
CTHR
EFII
PLT
RVBD
SUPX
SVVS
WIRE
WVCM

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the market is not your mother

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T e x
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rvbd:

http://www.allstocks.com/stockmessageboard/ubb/ultimatebb.php/ubb/get_topic/f/7/ t/002200/p/1.html#000031

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Adventures in microcapitalism...

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PCola77
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PLX.

Holy cow.

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fourseven
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TXCC, from Oct 2 - looks like it's gearing up to break resistance at 1.08

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the market is not your mother

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tmanfromtexas
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Holy Cow is right... Why would a company do that to themselves. Doesnt make sense to me. TMAN...

Protalix's sale of 10 mln shares priced at $5/shr
Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:40pm EDT
More Business & Investing News... Oct 24 (Reuters) - Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc (PLX.A: Quote, Profile, Research) said its public offering of 10 million common shares was priced at $5 a share.

The Israel-based company said it granted a 30-day option to the underwriters to purchase up to 1.5 million shares of common stock to cover any over-allotments. (Reporting by Anirvan Ghosh in Bangalore)

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PCola77
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In looking into it further, apparently they wanted to get $130million. Were planning to sell about 4million shares at the $35 per share it was selling at previously. Problem is, when the new shares were actually priced, it was apparent that the company was worth a small fraction of what people thought they were worth.

Whoops....

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Free Muney
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from business wire :

Riverbed Technology, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results

Oct 23, 2007 16:05:05 (ET)

SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 23, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Riverbed Technology, Inc. (RVBD, Trade ), the technology and market leader in wide-area data services (WDS), today released financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007.

Revenues for the third quarter of 2007 were $63.3 million, which represents an increase of 157% from the third quarter of last year. Riverbed(R) posted GAAP net income of $2.8 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.1 million, or a loss of $0.16 per share, in the third quarter of 2006. Riverbed's third quarter of 2007 GAAP results included $9.7 million of stock-based compensation expenses and stock-based payroll taxes.

Excluding the impact of stock-based compensation and related payroll taxes in all periods, the non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $12.4 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to a non-GAAP net loss of $1.0 million, or $0.02 per share, in the third quarter of 2006.

"Strong broad-based demand led to another record quarter with year-over-year revenue growth of 157%," noted Jerry Kennelly, Riverbed president and chief executive officer. "Our leadership position in the WDS market is clearly evident in our rapid revenue growth and our high rate of new customer acquisition. Our cumulative customers now total more than 3,000, including over 100 of the Fortune 500. This week, we further added to our competitive differentiation with the announcement of RiOS(TM) 4.1, which delivers enhanced speed, scalability and security. We are also pleased with the initial reception to our Steelhead Mobile product which we introduced at the end of the third quarter. Riverbed has the most comprehensive WDS solution addressing the needs of mobile workers, remote offices and data centers. Many potential customers have cited Steelhead Mobile as another key differentiator for Riverbed."

"GAAP gross margins improved from 69.7% in the June quarter to a record 71.3% in the third quarter. This improvement, combined with our rapid revenue growth, led to record non-GAAP net income despite a higher tax rate and even as we rapidly added personnel and invested in our infrastructure to facilitate anticipated future growth. Over the coming year, we will continue to invest in our technology, sales, marketing and infrastructure to capitalize on what we believe is a tremendous market opportunity," said Randy Gottfried, Riverbed chief financial officer.

Pcola i am not sure how high expectations were for RVBD but
If 157% growth with improved margins is LOWER than expectations then kick me in the nut sack... [Razz]

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Contrarian views always appreciated.... :p

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PCola77
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No offense, but I don't think you understand how fundamentals work. If the market was expecting 200% growth, then 157% is disappointing. The market had already priced in 200%, so the price will drop if it's only 157%. the number itself is unimportant, only the relativity to what was expected.

in addition to that, the future guidance is as, if not more, important. Companies can beat estimates but still get slammed the next day if they say the following quarter will be worse than originally projected.

this is exactly why i don't trade on fundamentals. I just don't have the knowledge or experience to guage how the market will react to news like this.

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tmanfromtexas
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kick me in the nut sack...
LMAO!!! TMAN...

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PCola77
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Yeah, I figured it best to not take him up on that offer [Smile]
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fourseven
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ASTE (gapped on the 22nd) - holding a hard line just below 45 today .. you can see the buyers eating up, but someone is unloading a whole lot. it's up from the close of the gap, anyway.

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the market is not your mother

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PCola77
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CWTR up almost 8% since yesterday when I got in.
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fourseven
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nice work, pcola.. i'm watching CTWR rise up.. just have to overcome my unfounded reservations about double-digit stocks [Smile]

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PCola77
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LOL. One of my personal favorit irrational fears [Smile]
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Happy Valley
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quote:
Originally posted by Happy Valley:
Nice concept Fourseven...

CRGN...Huge takedown after company discontinued the cancer drug Velafermin...Seems to have found bottom here...Been accumulating under $1.00 awaiting news about their other cancer drug Belinostat...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=crgn

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071011/neth035.html?.v=23

Belinostat news released AH today...BTW Fourseven, let me know if you are trying to keep your thread limited to picks only, don't wanna be posting links to PR's and such if that is not what you are trying to do here...

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071025/neth094.html?.v=21

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fourseven
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I was thinking we could use this thread to keep track of gap-inspired picks and do play-by-plays on them when they're going our way.

Any discussion of the whole 'down gap technique' is most welcome.

If a particular stock is followed more closely, or several people are discussing it, it would probably benefit from having its own thread.

JMO

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Happy Valley
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Sounds good... [Smile]
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fourseven
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Gaps for Oct 25th:

ACLI NASDAQ
ALGN NASDAQ
ANCX NASDAQ
BBSI NASDAQ
BW NYSE
CMI NYSE
EDEX OBB
FORM NASDAQ
FSS NYSE
NIHD NASDAQ
PALM NASDAQ
RGR NYSE
SPAR NASDAQ
SYMC NASDAQ
TRIB NASDAQ
VDSI NASDAQ
WCG NYSE
ZMH NYSE


Clearly, NASDAQ is the most dangerous market, sudden-death gaps left and right.. [Smile]

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a surfer
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My 2 biggest performers this year took massive hits the past few days. You have already posted

ANAD from 4-7 and RVBD which Tex posted.

RVBD was hit after a stellar 3rd. Q earnings report....Wouldn't be suprised to see this rebound to the low 40,s over 25% within a few months.

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T e x
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fwiw... I noticed RVBD and re-posted...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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a surfer
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quote:
Originally posted by T e x:
fwiw... I noticed RVBD and re-posted...

I made note of that above Tex....


Jeez do you need more credit......LOL

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T e x
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ya, 'ppreciate you, surf...just making it clear, was not an "original" find...

No, lol, need no "credit" -- hence the post [Cool]

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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fourseven
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PALM ... severe droppage on that one

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fourseven
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Hmm. You guys are saying this filter is good at catching, what, Britney Spears Class stocks?

[Razz]

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T e x
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lord, no...

we wanna keep our children

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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fourseven
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TXCC -- dropped Oct 2, on triple the volume of previous day, continued down to about .95

Today closed at 1.04 .. there's resistance at 1.08, next one at 1.21; a day or two will tell if it's making a run for it.

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fourseven
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quote:
Originally posted by T e x:
lord, no...

we wanna keep our children

uhh.. um?

i meant something like "stocks that have a stellar career for a while, but then drop hard on their faces when reality catches up"

come to think of it.. let's see which days in the past had the most gaps (and perhaps a stray split or two that lies uncorrected somewhere in my data..) .. here's the ones with 35 or more gaps:

2001.09.17 -> 259
2004.03.18 -> 134
2000.01.04 -> 100
2006.05.22 -> 69
1998.06.11 -> 64
2006.08.23 -> 57
2003.01.30 -> 56
2001.09.21 -> 55
2001.09.26 -> 53
2000.12.20 -> 52
2001.08.21 -> 50
2001.03.22 -> 48
1998.10.08 -> 47
2000.12.27 -> 45
1999.01.13 -> 40
2001.03.12 -> 38
1998.09.10 -> 38
2000.04.14 -> 37
2000.10.25 -> 36
1997.07.14 -> 36
2002.06.26 -> 35
1998.08.28 -> 35

..well, the first date makes perfect sense. here's 9/11:

2001.09.17 -> 259
2001.09.21 -> 55
2001.09.26 -> 53

here's the tech bubble collapsing:

2000.12.20 -> 52
2000.12.27 -> 45
2000.01.04 -> 100
2001.03.12 -> 38

i think these might have something to do with the oil scares last year:

2006.05.22 -> 69
2006.08.23 -> 57

hmm.. you'd figure the housing market panic back in august would've showed up.. i guess it wasn't as bad for the market as they made it out to be?

(just out of curiosity, the average number of gaps per day is 11, counted over the last ten years. let's take that to be a rough figure, anyhow.)

well, here's mid-july to late august:

2007.07.16 -> 5
2007.07.17 -> 9
2007.07.18 -> 8
2007.07.19 -> 2
2007.07.20 -> 12
2007.07.23 -> 5
2007.07.24 -> 7
2007.07.25 -> 16
2007.07.26 -> 17
2007.07.27 -> 8
2007.07.30 -> 6
2007.07.31 -> 7
2007.08.01 -> 18
2007.08.02 -> 12
2007.08.03 -> 12
2007.08.06 -> 8
2007.08.07 -> 10
2007.08.08 -> 7
2007.08.09 -> 11
2007.08.10 -> 10
2007.08.13 -> 4
2007.08.14 -> 12
2007.08.15 -> 11
2007.08.16 -> 15
2007.08.17 -> 2
2007.08.20 -> 2
2007.08.21 -> 12
2007.08.22 -> 7
2007.08.23 -> 4
2007.08.24 -> 5

only four days had noticeably more than average gaps over those five weeks.

so yeah, those other dates in the first list.. any of them seem significant to anyone?

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fourseven
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quote:
Originally posted by a surfer:
My 2 biggest performers this year took massive hits the past few days. You have already posted

ANAD from 4-7 and RVBD which Tex posted.

RVBD was hit after a stellar 3rd. Q earnings report....Wouldn't be suprised to see this rebound to the low 40,s over 25% within a few months.

My charts for RVBD show support at 32.54 -- which it tested and closed just above today. Perhaps it won't go much lower?

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fourseven
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yesterday's gaps:

BNVI
VVTV
LDSH
ORCC
WSTG
CALD
TRID
LYTS

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