Inspired by others' contributions to the site, I'd like to open a new topical thread.
A strategy that has been profitable for me recently relies on finding stocks that have gapped down a significant amount.. some of these tend to bounce back a good few points, and some of them continue their downward voyage.
While there exist online tools and scans that will find gaps like these, they only work on today's data. I've found that the gap-down stocks that bounce back usually take a few days to recover from the drop before the price begins to climb. By then, of course, such a stock won't be caught on a gap scanner (like on stockcharts.com)
So I've clobbered together a solution that finds past gaps in historical data.. I've limited it to only hard gap-downs of 10% or more (ie, where the low of previous day is at least 10% higher than the high of the next day), and filtered out all stocks below a dollar (most of these are all gaps anyway..)
Mind you, this is not a load-and-fire tool.. only a few of these stocks bounce back; further analysis should help pick these from the list. Sometimes a significant gap becomes a resistance level -- it usually takes longer than a bounce-back, but upon breakout there's more confidence in a continued bullish movement.
Anyway, to illustrate the concept, here's a short list: stocks that have gapped down more than 10% in October, and closed between $1 and $30 yesterday.
NOVN NPSP CWTR NKTR JADE
If you find any stocks that have taken a big drop and look ready to pounce back up, post them here. I will update this list as I refine the tool, and as new gaps occur.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
Nice concept Fourseven...
CRGN...Huge takedown after company discontinued the cancer drug Velafermin...Seems to have found bottom here...Been accumulating under $1.00 awaiting news about their other cancer drug Belinostat...
Glad to see some others trying to find some good picking methods besides "Hey this one is being pumped on site XYZ!"
What do you use to pull your data? How far back do you pull/store data? How often will you run it?
Posted by PCola77 on :
Oh and as far as stocks that fit the bill. LVLT. I know nothing about it other than a friend at work saying this morning "F***ing LVLT. B*stards missed their targets and it gapped down like 20%. D*mn it all!" Posted by fourseven on :
I've got an end-of-day feed for all American markets, about 5 years of reliable historical data. I've written a server-system to manage and analyse the data. The gap finder is another addition to the rickety collection of code..
I intend to run the tool every night and post the results for scrutiny. Hopefully we can make some mulah off a few stocks it finds..
Posted by T e x on :
nice thread here, fellas.
will definitely check in...
Posted by PCola77 on :
Cool. I do everything in Excel, so it's pretty inefficient, i think. I just kicked off a run to see if I agree with your list, or if I have more to add based on your criteria. Looks like ti will take abotu 1/2 hour to pull all October data, and then should take somethign around that to anlyze it.
how long does your stuff take?
Posted by jdiddy on :
very nice...this is the kinda plays i like...i will also try to contribute to the gappers
Posted by wdcisco on :
This is great! Awesome idea.
Posted by fourseven on :
Humm.. I re-ran the scan for stocks that closed between 0.10 and 2.00 yesterday.. here's a short list:
BJCT MSBT MOVI ALMI CRGN COR THLD MEMY TES DORB
Posted by jdiddy on :
HSWI rebounding off gapper, but dont no targets or much about it at all..up 11% today
Posted by fourseven on :
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Cool. I do everything in Excel, so it's pretty inefficient, i think. I just kicked off a run to see if I agree with your list, or if I have more to add based on your criteria. Looks like ti will take abotu 1/2 hour to pull all October data, and then should take somethign around that to anlyze it.
how long does your stuff take?
Interesting.. cross checking the gappers with form-4 filings? This would be to catch when insiders load up on suddenly cheap stocks? I like...
The scan itself takes about five minutes, but then there's the manual labor part, walking through the results and throwing out mismatched ones.
One thing I didn't think of was volume -- gaps are more significant if they happen on strong volume. I'll have to code that in..
Posted by PCola77 on :
I wasn't refering to the form 4 program, but a TA program that I wrote and posted about last night in another thread.
I just kicked off the analysis on my 2nd computer for the last 15 years just to get a feel for how they perform without looking at anything other than price and gap down. I'll post the results when they finish.
quote:Originally posted by fourseven:
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Cool. I do everything in Excel, so it's pretty inefficient, i think. I just kicked off a run to see if I agree with your list, or if I have more to add based on your criteria. Looks like ti will take abotu 1/2 hour to pull all October data, and then should take somethign around that to anlyze it.
how long does your stuff take?
Interesting.. cross checking the gappers with form-4 filings? This would be to catch when insiders load up on suddenly cheap stocks? I like...
The scan itself takes about five minutes, but then there's the manual labor part, walking through the results and throwing out mismatched ones.
One thing I didn't think of was volume -- gaps are more significant if they happen on strong volume. I'll have to code that in..
Posted by fourseven on :
Ah, I see. If you put this into your backtester, it will generate mostly horrible losses -- most gap downs are for a reason, and the stock continues falling.. Posted by wdcisco on :
I wish you would have found gbnw yesterday... Posted by PCola77 on :
Actually, it's doing shockingly well. After running through about 700 stocks so far it's returned an average of about 5% per month for the last 15 years.
Downside is that you would be making an average of like 16 trades per day so you' have to have a sh*tload of available capital.
Maybe I'll play around tonight and try to pare it down some without losing any of the gains.
quote:Originally posted by fourseven: Ah, I see. If you put this into your backtester, it will generate mostly horrible losses -- most gap downs are for a reason, and the stock continues falling..
Posted by fourseven on :
5% per month? That's suspiciously high.. what are you using as exit signals?
I don't think the gap strategy as presented here is a winning one all by itself. It's just a filter to catch stocks where bears have expended considerable resources. It would make sense that the bulls would take over, if just for a short while. So it pushes the odds in our favor a bit.
Posted by fourseven on :
A simple refinement to the gap-down filter: in addition to previous day's low being at least (p%) higher than the following day's high, the previous day's volume must be (q%) less than the next day's volume.
The rationale here is that the gap-down is more significant if it is made up of a larger-than-average amount of trades.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
BHIP...Have not taken a position but have this one on my radar...Big gap down on Monday due to private placement financing PR...Small float, should bounce well once it finds bottom...
Final tally for stocks with symbols starting with A-L (long story why I had to do it that way, but it shouldn't make much difference):
Overall over the 15 years, 22,705 buys. If you sold after 1 month you'd end up with 4.1% per trade (so 4% per month since you'd hold each for 1 month).
Looked extraordinarily promising, but I then looked at it by year.
So what this means is basically if you had done this in 1992 you would have gained almost 325% for the year, but the last few years it has become a much less exciting predictor.
Like I said, I will play around tonight with some other cuts of the data (for example your volume test) and see if we can't get this to work better over the last few years.
quote:Originally posted by fourseven: 5% per month? That's suspiciously high.. what are you using as exit signals?
I don't think the gap strategy as presented here is a winning one all by itself. It's just a filter to catch stocks where bears have expended considerable resources. It would make sense that the bulls would take over, if just for a short while. So it pushes the odds in our favor a bit.
Posted by wdcisco on :
LEV MTG
Posted by PCola77 on :
I just re-read your post. Seems you and I were talking about slightly different gaps. I was testing only the open relative to previous day's close.
Posted by fourseven on :
ok, i've modified the scanner so that it picks up gaps for which this is true:
-> more than a 10% difference between previous low and current high -> volume on gap day at least 20% higher than previous day -> stocks that have traded 97.5% of trading days in the last year (another words, no sparsely-traded stocks)
with that, i searched for stocks that closed between 0.50 and 6.00 today
i had to throw out a couple noisy ones, but the rest made it into these three lists:
1. gaps that could've worked if played BRLC, EFJI (twice), FMT, CMGI, THLD, COR, ANX
2. gaps that would've failed if played EFJI (once), HEPI, COOL, FNSR, WTSLA, AGIX, SOIGF, NIS, BJCT, COR, TES, HORT
that a gap "worked" means here loosely that in retrospect, the chart looks like there was an opportunity for a short-term bullish trade during the upswing that followed.
some stocks made it to more than one list, because they've had more than one gap over the last twelve months
out of the potential ones, some are kinda sucky.. my own personal likes, narrows it down to NPSP, MEMY, ANX, TTDS, LVLT and DCTH (the last two are from today)
note that there were almost twice as many gaps that haven't worked than ones that did, in the stocks that i found over the last year.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Nice job. This is the kind of thing I've been doing in my "free time" for a while now. Certainly can't hurt to have another person looking at it from a whole different perspective.
A few comments though. Your 20% higher than previous day volume doesn't seem like it makes much sense to me on it's face, given how much volume moves from one day to the next. On the hard gaps that I've seen, volume is more like 10X the previous 10day moving average.
While it's not a bad idea to look at these individually, the firms that I've spoken with stress a method that you could tell someone else and they could easily reproduce your results. If your goal is personal trading, then no big deal, but if you're interested in being some kind of money manager with a fund or anythign in the long run, keep that in mind.
Try to set a hard and fast sell rule. I can't tell you how frustrated I've become in doing this when I see something that looks like it works, but only when I use hindsight to set my sells. It's fairly easy to find a good buy point, and infinitely harder to consistently sell at the right time, or often even a profitable time, despite how a chart looks like you could easily have cashed out a good gain.
Posted by T e x on :
I'm a bit confused by the 20% parameter, also...
seems to me, (previous) market cap should be factored in... in other words, I'd be interested in one that peeps can clearly see that the market-panic has simply gone too far.
That would rule out many bio/pharmas, I would think, because...who the heck knows? Know what I mean? "FDA approval not granted" etc... OK...what's the real value, then?
Anyway, I remember a good example from a few months ago: Severe panic following failed-merger PR (as I recall), but anybody who bothered could see the main company was worth way more than the "panic price."
lol...
am through rambling, now Posted by fourseven on :
re Pcola's last post:
yeah, hindsight would be useful if we had time travel.. um.. yeah. a strategy only gives you an edge, or saves effort.. doesn't guarantee anything.
this is totally for personal trading.. i've been building this system to help out with my trades, and finally something that looks useful is coming out as a byproduct.
good call with the backtesting.. the way my system is set up, it shouldn't be too hard to put in some tests..
Posted by T e x on :
"re Pcola's last post"
yikes! hope it was not his last post... Posted by fourseven on :
i put the scanner online.. you can see the last three months of gaps here, updated nightly
Posted by wdcisco on :
quote:Originally posted by fourseven: i put the scanner online.. you can see the last three months of gaps here, updated nightly
Any personal favs?
Posted by fourseven on :
nah, that's just the raw list. make your own picks Posted by PCola77 on :
Hey fourseven, when did JADE gap down 10%? I ran my program a few minutes ago to try to reproduce your initial list, and came up with a very different list.
Here is mine with the conditions of $1-$30
AMCE CWTR EFJI EXAS ISLN JZC
Did you have some more conditions that you didn't mention?
Edit: just realized I had only run the data for the A-L. that's why I missed your "N" symbols. I'm running the second half now
Posted by PCola77 on :
(or you can go here for a three-month list)
Posted by PCola77 on :
Can you explain that site a litle bit?
the date listed, is that the date of the gap? What is the number listed under drop? they all seem to be less than 1%.
Like NANX is listed on 10/19, but i don't see a gap in NANX at all in October.Also, can you opint me to the gap for JADE? I don't see one in October.
Posted by fourseven on :
Try again.. I was tweaking it just now..
The date is gap date, close is the closing price on gap day, drop is how many % it dropped (close-to-open, just to be confusing), vol is volume ratio (gap to pre-gap)
NANX gapped down on earnings on the 19th, JADE on the 18th
Posted by PCola77 on :
NANX I see a low on the 18th of 6.53 and a high on the 19th of 6. SO that's less than 10%.
Jade, on the 17th I see a low of 5.06 and the 18th a high of 4.59, which is also less than 10%.
What am i missing?
Posted by PCola77 on :
by the way, if I'm being too critcal, let me know. I love the idea and the setup, just trying to understand it better, and help debug.
Posted by fourseven on :
no, this is good.. i could use the help finding all the mistakes..
the percentage drop listed in the table is calculated using the close of day before gap and the open of gap day .. so it's a bit off from the actual gap calculation.
Posted by PCola77 on :
So did you look at NANX and JADE to see what I did differently in my calc?
Posted by Free Muney on :
huge gap down today on a great company. RVBD released better than expected earnings, but due to down grade by citi, and an overall red tech day this is down 27+ % I think this will bouce tomorrow.
Posted by PCola77 on :
All the stuff I am reading says in line or worse than expected. Can you post a link for the "better than expected" part?
quote:Originally posted by Free Muney: huge gap down today on a great company. RVBD released better than expected earnings, but due to down grade by citi, and an overall red tech day this is down 27+ % I think this will bouce tomorrow.
Posted by fourseven on :
gaps today:
ALTR ANAD BRCM CTHR EFII PLT RVBD SUPX SVVS WIRE WVCM
Posted by T e x on :
TXCC, from Oct 2 - looks like it's gearing up to break resistance at 1.08
Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
Holy Cow is right... Why would a company do that to themselves. Doesnt make sense to me. TMAN...
Protalix's sale of 10 mln shares priced at $5/shr Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:40pm EDT More Business & Investing News... Oct 24 (Reuters) - Protalix BioTherapeutics Inc (PLX.A: Quote, Profile, Research) said its public offering of 10 million common shares was priced at $5 a share.
The Israel-based company said it granted a 30-day option to the underwriters to purchase up to 1.5 million shares of common stock to cover any over-allotments. (Reporting by Anirvan Ghosh in Bangalore)
Posted by PCola77 on :
In looking into it further, apparently they wanted to get $130million. Were planning to sell about 4million shares at the $35 per share it was selling at previously. Problem is, when the new shares were actually priced, it was apparent that the company was worth a small fraction of what people thought they were worth.
Whoops....
Posted by Free Muney on :
from business wire :
Riverbed Technology, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Oct 23, 2007 16:05:05 (ET)
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 23, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Riverbed Technology, Inc. (RVBD, Trade ), the technology and market leader in wide-area data services (WDS), today released financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007.
Revenues for the third quarter of 2007 were $63.3 million, which represents an increase of 157% from the third quarter of last year. Riverbed(R) posted GAAP net income of $2.8 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.1 million, or a loss of $0.16 per share, in the third quarter of 2006. Riverbed's third quarter of 2007 GAAP results included $9.7 million of stock-based compensation expenses and stock-based payroll taxes.
Excluding the impact of stock-based compensation and related payroll taxes in all periods, the non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $12.4 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to a non-GAAP net loss of $1.0 million, or $0.02 per share, in the third quarter of 2006.
"Strong broad-based demand led to another record quarter with year-over-year revenue growth of 157%," noted Jerry Kennelly, Riverbed president and chief executive officer. "Our leadership position in the WDS market is clearly evident in our rapid revenue growth and our high rate of new customer acquisition. Our cumulative customers now total more than 3,000, including over 100 of the Fortune 500. This week, we further added to our competitive differentiation with the announcement of RiOS(TM) 4.1, which delivers enhanced speed, scalability and security. We are also pleased with the initial reception to our Steelhead Mobile product which we introduced at the end of the third quarter. Riverbed has the most comprehensive WDS solution addressing the needs of mobile workers, remote offices and data centers. Many potential customers have cited Steelhead Mobile as another key differentiator for Riverbed."
"GAAP gross margins improved from 69.7% in the June quarter to a record 71.3% in the third quarter. This improvement, combined with our rapid revenue growth, led to record non-GAAP net income despite a higher tax rate and even as we rapidly added personnel and invested in our infrastructure to facilitate anticipated future growth. Over the coming year, we will continue to invest in our technology, sales, marketing and infrastructure to capitalize on what we believe is a tremendous market opportunity," said Randy Gottfried, Riverbed chief financial officer.
Pcola i am not sure how high expectations were for RVBD but If 157% growth with improved margins is LOWER than expectations then kick me in the nut sack... Posted by PCola77 on :
No offense, but I don't think you understand how fundamentals work. If the market was expecting 200% growth, then 157% is disappointing. The market had already priced in 200%, so the price will drop if it's only 157%. the number itself is unimportant, only the relativity to what was expected.
in addition to that, the future guidance is as, if not more, important. Companies can beat estimates but still get slammed the next day if they say the following quarter will be worse than originally projected.
this is exactly why i don't trade on fundamentals. I just don't have the knowledge or experience to guage how the market will react to news like this.
Posted by tmanfromtexas on :
kick me in the nut sack... LMAO!!! TMAN...
Posted by PCola77 on :
Yeah, I figured it best to not take him up on that offer Posted by fourseven on :
ASTE (gapped on the 22nd) - holding a hard line just below 45 today .. you can see the buyers eating up, but someone is unloading a whole lot. it's up from the close of the gap, anyway.
Posted by PCola77 on :
CWTR up almost 8% since yesterday when I got in.
Posted by fourseven on :
nice work, pcola.. i'm watching CTWR rise up.. just have to overcome my unfounded reservations about double-digit stocks Posted by PCola77 on :
LOL. One of my personal favorit irrational fears Posted by Happy Valley on :
quote:Originally posted by Happy Valley: Nice concept Fourseven...
CRGN...Huge takedown after company discontinued the cancer drug Velafermin...Seems to have found bottom here...Been accumulating under $1.00 awaiting news about their other cancer drug Belinostat...
Belinostat news released AH today...BTW Fourseven, let me know if you are trying to keep your thread limited to picks only, don't wanna be posting links to PR's and such if that is not what you are trying to do here...
Clearly, NASDAQ is the most dangerous market, sudden-death gaps left and right.. Posted by a surfer on :
My 2 biggest performers this year took massive hits the past few days. You have already posted
ANAD from 4-7 and RVBD which Tex posted.
RVBD was hit after a stellar 3rd. Q earnings report....Wouldn't be suprised to see this rebound to the low 40,s over 25% within a few months.
Posted by T e x on :
fwiw... I noticed RVBD and re-posted...
Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by T e x: fwiw... I noticed RVBD and re-posted...
I made note of that above Tex....
Jeez do you need more credit......LOL
Posted by T e x on :
ya, 'ppreciate you, surf...just making it clear, was not an "original" find...
No, lol, need no "credit" -- hence the post Posted by fourseven on :
PALM ... severe droppage on that one
Posted by fourseven on :
Hmm. You guys are saying this filter is good at catching, what, Britney Spears Class stocks?
Posted by T e x on :
lord, no...
we wanna keep our children
Posted by fourseven on :
TXCC -- dropped Oct 2, on triple the volume of previous day, continued down to about .95
Today closed at 1.04 .. there's resistance at 1.08, next one at 1.21; a day or two will tell if it's making a run for it.
Posted by fourseven on :
quote:Originally posted by T e x: lord, no...
we wanna keep our children
uhh.. um?
i meant something like "stocks that have a stellar career for a while, but then drop hard on their faces when reality catches up"
come to think of it.. let's see which days in the past had the most gaps (and perhaps a stray split or two that lies uncorrected somewhere in my data..) .. here's the ones with 35 or more gaps:
only four days had noticeably more than average gaps over those five weeks.
so yeah, those other dates in the first list.. any of them seem significant to anyone?
Posted by fourseven on :
quote:Originally posted by a surfer: My 2 biggest performers this year took massive hits the past few days. You have already posted
ANAD from 4-7 and RVBD which Tex posted.
RVBD was hit after a stellar 3rd. Q earnings report....Wouldn't be suprised to see this rebound to the low 40,s over 25% within a few months.
My charts for RVBD show support at 32.54 -- which it tested and closed just above today. Perhaps it won't go much lower?
Posted by fourseven on :
yesterday's gaps:
BNVI VVTV LDSH ORCC WSTG CALD TRID LYTS
Posted by Propertymanager on :
fourseven,
I don't really see good support for RVBD until about $28.50, but I think the market may be up next week in hopes of a 50 basis point rate cut. That may help.
I'm going to play ERIC as a slam, buying at $29 on Monday. There is support there from 2006. What do you think of that one?
Mike
Posted by fourseven on :
hey, you can read charts! awesome! welcome aboard..
28.5 looks like strong support for RVBD. 32.5 is not as pronounced, but still -- it keeps closing above that.
ERIC is just about at support level, and looks like it couldn't quite get past 30 last week -- too many asking at that price? volume is dropping, too.
Posted by fourseven on :
whoa molly..
Wellcare Health Plans Inc. [WCG] $24 down from $122
looks like it might turn around.
any fundamentals to explain this?
Posted by PCola77 on :
Nevermind, I didn't look far enough back, I thought you meant today was the gap down.
Posted by PCola77 on :
There are a bunch of news articles about them being investigate by the FBI and SEC. Doesn't look good. I'll ask some co-workers tomorrow. Since I am a healthcare actuary, I'm sure one of them is fully versed in what's going on there. Hell, they may even be one of our clients. (Geez, I hope not though...)
Posted by fourseven on :
hi folks,
today has been a great day for a couple of recently hard-gapped stocks
WCG up 21%, double that if one got out in the morning.
QMED, friday's gap, made a quick 40% run this morning, to retrace through the day and close slightly below open.
today - two gaps, one looks interesting: NOVC fell hard 60% to 2.89.. i'm watching that one tomorrow, as well as QMED
Posted by fourseven on :
NOVN looks like it's turning up; QMED's sinking.
A number of gaps today.. KNXA, NAVR, JCOM, HANS, BID..
For previous days' gaps, and what they turned into, check yasboti.
Posted by penniesindapit on :
RNIN.............looking like it wants to fill the GAP this week.........IMO.
Price now = 3.25
To FILL GAP = 5.95ish
Only 14.3 Million OS.............indicators all turning positive and MACD already showing slight bullish trend. IMO, it's ready to pop!
3rd quarter Financial statement came back as predicted on Oct. 3rd which is when it fell on lowered projections due to delays. All contracts are still in the works, not lost.
IMO, Next year RNIN hits over 20.00pps!
Check it out, should be a nice QUICK POP to fill the GAP, any day now. If a PR comes out now, it will really RUN HARD!
GL guys, let me know what you think!
Posted by PCola77 on :
Hey fourseven, can you put a link to your site in your signature line, I keep forgetting to bookmark it, and may get you some more interest if people on other threads notice it as well.
Posted by T e x on :
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Hey fourseven, can you put a link to your site in your signature line, I keep forgetting to bookmark it, and may get you some more interest if people on other threads notice it as well.
Good point...I remember thinking it was interesting, but now I can't rememeber what it was about...Alzheimer's kicking in, I guess.
Posted by Ace of Spades on :
E*TRADE Financial Corporation (ETFC)
Ahead of the Bell: E-Trade Downgraded Monday November 12, 7:52 am ET Citi Analyst Downgrades E-Trade to 'Sell,' Says Bankruptcy a Possibility, Shares Sink
Yeah, that'll be a gap down. geez.
Posted by PCola77 on :
Down 44% now. Wonder if she'll bounce. The word bankruptcy is ugly, but it was just from one analyst, and he said there's a 15% chance. He could be totally wrong. I'm watching, but haven't done anythign yet.
Posted by Ace of Spades on :
This is one stock I am scared to touch, I almost bought it a couple different days, and it keeps going lower!
Posted by fourseven on :
quote:Originally posted by T e x:
quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Hey fourseven, can you put a link to your site in your signature line, I keep forgetting to bookmark it, and may get you some more interest if people on other threads notice it as well.
Good point...I remember thinking it was interesting, but now I can't rememeber what it was about...Alzheimer's kicking in, I guess.
the site runs off my home machine, so it might be really slow, or down at times..
Posted by BooDog on :
Very cool fourseven.
I can't believe I haven't been watching this thread. Posted by Free Muney on :
bought in at eod at 3.70 setting a stop for tomorrow. hope it bounces! plan on getting out tomorrow either way.
Posted by Free Muney on :
etfc that is. stop at 3.35 hope for green Posted by PCola77 on :
You sell out yet? Nice job buying when you did!
Posted by Free Muney on :
well, Etrade is up 18% today, so far. I plan on selling out by eod. I like these bounce plays. seeing the return and all. i think the fact that today is mostly green in all sectors is helping the bounce as well.
Posted by Free Muney on :
now i just need to figure out when to bail. my greed is so powerful. do i hold for day 2? do i keep freebees and pull initial investment? move my stop?
Posted by PCola77 on :
Just bail dude. You're up 25% right now. move on and don't look back!
Posted by fourseven on :
i second that.. ETFC looks a bit topped out.. plus, if you're up, you're up. chances are that a lot of other people are up as well, and those are the potential bears now.. it's better to beat them to it, and cash in your profits. you can always get back in.
Posted by Free Muney on :
up 32% now. im jumping ship. thanks for the ego check u 2
Posted by Free Muney on :
ok now i just need to do that 500 more times. and not lose. and I can quit trading and buy an island. Posted by PCola77 on :
LOL. great play man. Despite my suspicion (and outright statement to some coworkers) that yesterday was a huge oevrreaction, I sat on my ass and made nothing off what I was pretty suer was coming...
Posted by Free Muney on :
interesting buyout speculation for etrade. multiple articles on marketwatch and here is one from thestreet.com
now up almost 40% for the day. market watch article says instutional buying up big blocks of the stock. keep an eye out.
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Thanks for posting that link Free Muney. I was short at $5.20 and was able to cover before market close. Looks like it is going up in after hours.
I don't think I'd have wanted to be short overnight with that buyout rumor looming over the stock.
Jo
Posted by PCola77 on :
Jo, you actually MADE money on a trade? Damn, didn't know it was possible Posted by Jo4321 on :
LOL! Yep, a whole $200 bucks!
Occasionally, I break my curse.
Jo
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Well, it's jumping in after hours on this news.
E*Trade CEO cancels appearance at Merrill conference
Tue Nov 13, 2007 4:38pm EST NEW YORK (Reuters) - Online brokerage E*Trade Financial Corp's (ETFC.O: Quote, Profile, Research)
Chief Executive Mitch Caplan cancelled his presentation at a Merrill Lynch & Co banking conference, a spokeswoman said on Tuesday.
Caplan was scheduled to speak at the conference on November 14.
E*Trade spokeswoman Pam Erickson did not immediately provide a reason for his cancellation.
(Reporting by Anupreeta Das, editing by Leslie Gevirtz )
Posted by Free Muney on :
glad to be some help. I have learned a bunch from this bulletin board. It is nice to know my often useless posts actually help from time to time. I am so curious to see what happens tomorrow with all this aftermarket action. I think it may be a bunch of big board pump and dump. but sh*t what do i know.....
Posted by Jo4321 on :
Whew, glad I covered. Thanks again.
I thought about getting in long this morning, but I had to work and couldn't get to a 'puter to see what was happenning.
Jo
Posted by fourseven on :
Oyzers!
A few low-priced gappers today:
NTRZ, 0.80 NFI, 2.08
and yesterday:
SINX, 0.26 BLUE, 0.60 CPNE, 0.40
some of these bouncing already..
Posted by Free Muney on :
simc looks like a bouncer for tomorrow imo. not in, just the pony im "betting" on. fourseven, i love your gapdown page. super simple, when does it update, usuallly eod is the best time to get into these gapdowns. does it do it before the closing bell?
Posted by a surfer on :
AP Last Call: Global Cash Access Holdings Thursday November 15, 3:13 pm ET Global Cash Access Shares Tumble After Company Says It Will Delay Filing Quarterly Report
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Global Cash Access Holdings Inc., which provides ATM and cash advance services to casinos, hit a new all-time low Thursday after the company said it will delay filing its most recent quarterly report because of an ongoing internal investigation. Shares tumbled $1.17, or 12.7 percent, to $8.03 in afternoon trading, after hitting a new all-time low of $7.99 earlier in the session. Shares have traded between $8.80 and $17.12 in the past 12 months.
Late Wednesday, the Las Vegas-based company said it will delay filing its financial report for the quarter ended Sept. 30 due to a confidential internal probe.
Global Cash Access said it plans to file its quarterly report as soon as practicable after the investigation but is unable to predict when that will be.
Wachovia analyst Daniel R. Perlin said to expect weakness in the share price, but he maintained an "Outperform" rating on the stock.
Posted by fourseven on :
hey freemuney, thanks for the props. the site updates around 7~8pm every(ish) market day, so it only finds gappers after they're done.
you can use the scans at stockcharts.com, or any of the "top gainers/losers" shortlists on various finance sites. bulk of them is intraday-delayed, but still should be good to catch movers like that.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
GCA and NTRZ...Couple of nice finds guys... Posted by Free Muney on :
ok simc is going to bounce tomorrow with any above average volume imo.
Im in today at 5.02, setting a stop * 4.85...
comon bounce so i can buy me an island. Posted by Free Muney on :
no bounce. Posted by terence on :
CPKL low float stock xtremely undervalued good fundaments down from ,002 to .0002 with a few grants. put on watch cause a great gap must be filled. this co has real product.
Posted by a surfer on :
MICG suffered almost 50% the past 6 trading days after a stellar 3rd. quarter.
Should be good for 20-30% IMO maybe more for the patient ones.
Microfield Group Reports Financial Performance for Q3 2007 Thursday November 8, 5:38 pm ET CEO to Detail Company's Continued Growth and Record Performance for EnergyConnect During Investor Conference Call on November 15 Key Highlights for Q3 2007: -- EnergyConnect Reports Record Revenues of $4.7 Million, 5x the $943,000 Reported for Q3 2006 -- Microfield Records Consolidated Quarterly Net Income of $851,000 Versus $1.1 Million Loss Reported for Q2 2007
PORTLAND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Microfield Group, Inc. (OTCBB:MICG), reported financial results today for the three and nine months ended September 29, 2007. Total revenues for the period totaled $20.2 million, compared to approximately $20.7 million for the same quarter in 2006. The revenue for the current quarter includes $4,691,000 from EnergyConnect and $15,517,000 from Christenson Electric. Revenues for EnergyConnect were approximately 5x the $943,000 recognized in the third quarter of 2006. This significant increase in revenues is due primarily to increased usage of EnergyConnect services by participants, and a larger base of participants. ADVERTISEMENT
The Company benefited from the recognition in this quarter of approximately $2.5 million in revenue from a capacity program it entered into in June 2007 within PJM Interconnection. The $2.5 million of revenue recognized during this accounting period represents the program’s aggregate revenue under the current contract. The Company will receive the cash for this revenue monthly through June of 2008. No further revenue will be recognized under this program until the new program year starts in June of 2008. The Company also benefited from enhanced gross margins on the revenue recognized under this program. It is not anticipated that the margins on the revenue from this program will be as high in the program year starting in 2008.
Revenue through the third quarter 2007 was $52 million compared to approximately $60.8 million for the same period the previous year. EnergyConnect revenue for the current nine month period was $10.4 million, 5x the $2.1,million in revenues for the same nine month period last year.
The company recorded net income for the consolidated group for the third quarter of 2007 totaling approximately $851,000 or $0.01 per basic and diluted share, compared to net income of approximately $6.7 million during the third quarter of 2006. Last year’s quarterly net income included non-cash derivative income of $9.8 million. Exclusive of that derivative income, the prior year quarter would have been a net loss of $3.1 million. The derivative income was recognized upon the re-valuation of warrants at the end of each quarter in 2006.
The net income for the current quarter of $851,000 was comprised of net incomes of $1.3 million in EnergyConnect and $164,000 in Christenson, less corporate costs of $625,000, that include $184,000 of stock-based compensation expense.
Net loss for the nine months ended September 29, 2007, was approximately $2.2 million, compared to net income of $2.5 million for the same period in 2006. Net income for the nine months in 2006 included non-cash derivative income of $8.3 million, as described above. Exclusive of that derivative income, the prior year quarter would have been a net loss of $5.8 million.
This net loss for the current nine-month period was comprised of net income of $165,000 in EnergyConnect, a net loss of $206,000 in Christenson, and corporate costs of $2,141,000, that include $668,000 of stock-based compensation expense.
“We are seeing the benefits of concentrating our efforts on the growth of our EnergyConnect division,” stated Rod Boucher, Chief Executive Officer of Microfield. “Adding Constellation NewEnergy during the quarter as a new alliance significantly enhances our partnership program. This is an important period in Microfield’s growth path as we continue to develop our technologies that address the nation’s rising need for electricity.”
Mr. Boucher will discuss the financial performance for Q3 2007 and other recent strategic achievements during an investor conference call on November 15 at 12 Noon EST. Callers within the United States can access the conference call by calling 800-700-7860; when prompted tell the operator you would like to connect to the 'Microfield Group conference call.' International callers can dial 612-332-0820. An online audio web simulcast of the call will also be accessible at http://www.trilogy-capital.com/autoir/micg_autoir.html.
Microfield’s EnergyConnect division is harnessing the nation’s energy infrastructure with smarter technology solutions that capitalize on the emergent multibillion-dollar Demand Response marketplace. Our products and services provide sustainable, cutting-edge solutions that enable consumers to lower their increasing energy costs and generate significant revenues while alleviating the mounting strain on the nation’s power grids and energy infrastructure. Microfield’s EnergyConnect works in tandem with major consumers of electricity to generate significant, long-term revenues through environmentally responsible solutions that make smarter use of the energy that’s already available. The Company’s high-growth business strategy is targeting an estimated $12 billion segment of the $300 billion energy marketplace. Through our leading-edge technologies, EnergyConnect is enabling a win-win partnership between consumers, utility companies, electricity grids and all energy market participants.
This press release includes statements that may constitute “forward-looking” statements. These statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause or contribute to such differences that include, but are not limited to, competitive factors, the success of new products in the marketplace, dependence upon third party vendors, and the ability to obtain financing. By making these forward-looking statements, the Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release.
MICROFIELD GROUP, INC.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
($000’S)
September 29, December 30, 2007 2006 (Unaudited)
Cash $ 1,825 $ 2,545 Accounts receivable 10,520 9,105 Other current assets 3,626 3,301
Total current assets 15,971 14,951
Goodwill and intangibles 41,047 41,443 Other long term assets 846 753
Total assets $ 57,864 $ 57,147
Accounts payable $ 5,487 $ 5,063 Bank line of credit 5,110 3,830 Other current liabilities 4,513 3,377
Total current liabilities 15,110 12,270
Long term liabilities 71 1,261
Total liabilities 15,181 13,531
Shareholders’ equity 42,683 43,616
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity $ 57,864 $ 57,147 MICROFIELD GROUP, INC.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
($000’s, except share and per share data)
(Unaudited)
Three months ended Nine months ended Sept. 29, Sept. 30, Sept. 29, Sept. 30, 2007 2006 2007 2006
Revenue $ 20,207 $ 20,663 $ 52,005 $ 60,794 Cost of goods sold 15,057 19,452 41,020 53,970
Gross profit 5,150 1,211 10,985 6,824
Sales, general and administrative 4,196 3,067 12,156 9,850 Stock-based compensation 184 272 669 1,247
Income (loss) from operations 769 (2,128) (1,840) (4,273)
Other (expense) 82 (975) (327) (1,579) Derivative income (expense) - 9,756 - 8,319
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes 851 6,653 (2,167) 2,467
Provision for income taxes - - (15) -
Income (loss) from continuing operations 851 6,653 (2,182) 2,467
Gain on discontinued operations - - - 17
Net income (loss) $ 851 $ 6,653 $ (2,182) $ 2.484
Net income (loss) per share: Basic $ 0.01 $ 0.09 $ (0.03) $ 0.04 Diluted $ 0.01 $ 0.08 $ (0.03) $ 0.03
Shares used in per share calculations: Basic 83,135,867 74,531,401 82,023,503 65,433,453 Diluted 86,052,443 82,026,176 82,023,503 72,928,227
Contact: Microfield Group, Inc. Chief Financial Officer Randy Reed, 503-419-3364 or Trilogy Capital Partners Financial Communications Ryon Harms, 800-592-6067 ryon*trilogy-capital.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Microfield Group, Inc.
Posted by chuck9 on :
I am new to this board, but after reading some of the comments about gap down and Up positions. I feel that I am in the right place for the type of trading I do.
Most of my picks come from gap's either up or down. I have designed a formula that looks at a percentage difference of premarket hours versus the previous day's low, close or high . At the present time. I have it set up to look at stocks from a range of one dollar through $44 and a volume of at least 200,000 shares during premarket hours. This is a live feed.
At the present time I have a percentage difference set at 10%.
Welcome all comments.
Posted by fourseven on :
surfer.. MICG looks like it took a beat-down.. but from what looked like an over-reaction (mid-october, rocked to 1.50, double top and drop?)
so, i prognosticate it will find a bottom around .70, and touch back up .92 or so?
Posted by chuck9 on :
fourseven, do you trade with Ameritrade? it would appear that after reading some of your posts. You deal with formulas.
Could you possibly explain a little more in detail on your look back formula. At least that is what I call it. It would appear that in some ways. It is similar to what I am trying to do, except I am using premarket and historical data, in combination with each other.
Thanks Chuck. Posted by fourseven on :
chuck.. my broker's fidelity.. i made an unrelated system for calculating support/resistance levels and swings, i use it on my charts. it's based on end of day data.
what do you mean by "look back" formula? like back-testing, or something else?
good call with the premarket data though, that helps. where do you find that?
Posted by chuck9 on :
fourseven, let's say when you're building a formula you won't today's high to be greater than any high from the past 14 days. THE 14 days will be your look back.
Let me explain to you what my formula does. If you have time.
It measures the percentage difference from your premarket data, (Live data) from yesterday's low, high or close. I also have it set up so that I can implement the price range and the volume range
Every morning I search for stocks in the premarket hours section of Ameritrade. This is where I get my picks. Although this morning something had happened to the scanner.
I feel that it is a great advantage to be able to do this. So far I have had very good success. It's just that a lot of people do not trade this way. Which is hit and run trading. I try to never stay in a position overnight.
chuck. Posted by a surfer on :
quote:Originally posted by fourseven: surfer.. MICG looks like it took a beat-down.. but from what looked like an over-reaction (mid-october, rocked to 1.50, double top and drop?)
so, i prognosticate it will find a bottom around .70, and touch back up .92 or so?
I keep trying to find bottom for this. This is my 3rd attempt. lol. Still does not match any indication of turning yet but... sooner or later...
Posted by chuck9 on :
BooDog, I tracked it as far back as 1998, and it is lower today than it was then, which was around four dollars.
Posted by Free Muney on :
big time gap down verifone. super oversold. should bounce tomorrow imo. TICKER = pay
Posted by fourseven on :
GTOP -- it's been played before on the Day Runners thread.. just picked up some at .77 after a dip.
It gapped down hard (from ~4.00 to ~0.70) almost two weeks ago, hasn't gotten above .90 since.
A bit of volume today drove it up ~15% (dipped back down since) which makes me think there's some potential for a ride here.
Posted by Happy Valley on :
SIRF getting smoked today...$7.57 LOD...On the radar for a bounce...
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I can't believe I haven't been watching this thread. ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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