posted
Sorry about the symbol.You guys are right it is GMR. It is up today again. Remember sell half of your position after gain of 5% or over $45. It will start trade sideway or start to fall a little. Remember you are keeping the other half and that is going to pay big. It is same trend that is happening with HMA. It happens for reasons. One is insider and loyal followers of the stock. They repurchase some with their money. The other is mutual fund. When a person buys mutual funds, it always ask what to do with dividends. Almost all choose reinvest dividends. Hence the fund managers must repurchase the stocks. Another reason is program purchase-same reason why there was a sell off last Tuesday. Big investment companies have computer software that alerts all different types of activity goes in the market. One of them is to purchase consistent and conservative dividend paying stock falling significant amount in its share price. Now, usually these dividend paying stocks are conservative companies which has a large portionof its shares are owned by the institutions in order to leverage their possible loss in case of the market crash. Or at least institution has programed such as a way that it makes purchase when the share price falls, it automatically purchase the stock for (1) it fell into their price range; or (2) depreciation of share price means bigger normal dividend profits per share price. In other words what is currently 5% annual dividend payment can rise to 7% to 10% dividends per share price after the issuance of special divy and that is a perfect target for the program purchase.
-------------------- Don't blame me for getting too rich!!!!!!
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posted
Then why botehr selling half of your position when you KNOW it's going to keep going up?
quote:Originally posted by everyone's hero: Sorry about the symbol.You guys are right it is GMR. It is up today again. Remember sell half of your position after gain of 5% or over $45. It will start trade sideway or start to fall a little. Remember you are keeping the other half and that is going to pay big. It is same trend that is happening with HMA. It happens for reasons. One is insider and loyal followers of the stock. They repurchase some with their money. The other is mutual fund. When a person buys mutual funds, it always ask what to do with dividends. Almost all choose reinvest dividends. Hence the fund managers must repurchase the stocks. Another reason is program purchase-same reason why there was a sell off last Tuesday. Big investment companies have computer software that alerts all different types of activity goes in the market. One of them is to purchase consistent and conservative dividend paying stock falling significant amount in its share price. Now, usually these dividend paying stocks are conservative companies which has a large portionof its shares are owned by the institutions in order to leverage their possible loss in case of the market crash. Or at least institution has programed such as a way that it makes purchase when the share price falls, it automatically purchase the stock for (1) it fell into their price range; or (2) depreciation of share price means bigger normal dividend profits per share price. In other words what is currently 5% annual dividend payment can rise to 7% to 10% dividends per share price after the issuance of special divy and that is a perfect target for the program purchase.
posted
You sell half because (1) there will be another opprtunity like this before you make 30% return on one stock. Let's say there is stocks like this once a month, then we have 12 of these stocks. 5%-10% quick return on these investment adds up close to 100% a year. compare to stay and make remaining 25-30% return in six months. (2) nothing in the world is guranteed. You want to take profit in order to protect the interest of the other half. In a worst case scenario I ve seen on special divy play, the stock traded down even after the divy and share price were down accordingly. But in that worst scenario, the share retreat 15% in next two months before the share price stablized-doesn't mean it went back to pre-ex-dividend price. You see even 15% loss on the remaining half can be covered with 5% gain pre-ex-dividends because 5% of higher priced stock share can very much match 10-15% drop after divy which is much lower share price. I am trying to create a perfect system where you can protect your asset and make over 30% and close to 100% on you money every year. That is my target every year. Everyone here seems to be focusing on making 20-30% a day which sounds like a small lottery to me.
-------------------- Don't blame me for getting too rich!!!!!!
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posted
Good answer. Reasonable and well thought out. Although you make the assumption that you couldn't get into the next one if yuor money was tied up in the first one, which may be just a small flaw. Hopefull most peole don't put 100% of their portfolio into one stock.
But i do see your point. Good luck to you
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posted
Just like I said, after after GMR crossed $45 it started to retreat. You should have gotten out by now. It already gave 14% since the announcement of the special divy. Besides $45 is the resistant level becuase it is 52 week high. In order for a stock to break 52 week, it need to have series of good news and/or strong fundamental. Although it is a great company, fundamentals are not there. This special dividend was created by the officers of the company to create opportunity to buy the shares of the company's stock at lower price with free money. If they didn't do this, the stock price would have plunged anyway because it missed analyst expectation of earning and its revenue dropped. However, it is great company that can double in two years if oil price remains at current level.
-------------------- Don't blame me for getting too rich!!!!!!
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posted
Next opportunity comes after ex-dividends date. Everyone should get on board at that time because the management and institutions will be acquiring lot of these at bargain price. One more thing I like is that this stock is mostly at HOLD recommendation which means, this is what I like, high institution interest with neutral recommendation. I like HOLD consensus by analysts because it has potential to be upgraded. Word of advise, DO NOT BUY ANY STOCK WITH BUY RATING covered by many analysts unless it is for an extremely short term. Because chances are the stock will trade sideways or depreciate because it is already at the pick. Really the best opportunity is companies like GM or Ford that moves from under-perform to neutral. It shows that the stock is out of the worst situation and the company's future will not be as bad as it has been. Sure enough GM was up huge(slowly) after couple of analysts upgraded them to neutral from sell recommendation.
-------------------- Don't blame me for getting too rich!!!!!!
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posted
I think you're giving good advice, and am glad you have toned it down a bit since you first joined the board, but you still come off as a bit "high and mighty".
Adding things like "just like I said" and "You should have gotten out by now" make it seem like you're being arrognant, as opposed to helpful. You may find people here more receptive to more humble behavior.
posted
Sorry. I was writing them quick as I was watching my monitor for other actions for the morning-bunch of emails I receive from various stock newsletter service. Also, I wrote it right before I took my kid to Preschool.
-------------------- Don't blame me for getting too rich!!!!!!
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posted
Crossed $11 today. Took a week or two, but it's slowly climbing. i expect the same to happen with ZNCM after their special dividend, except probably quicker and higehr, since there were some red flags with HMA that don't exist for ZNCM.
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