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Author Topic: KSWW making a run soon?
blue_in_MI
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six bucks, beauty
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JimMeredith
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Blue, I wouldn't listen to SSkillz, it seems pretty obvious that he is trying to get sellers out there to lower the price. He has been saying the same thing over and over on other stocks. While the rsi is high it doesn't keep a stock from running up to catch up to fair value.
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blue_in_MI
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i took 1/3 off the table today at 6.03, couldn't resist hedging by taking a 50% gain in a few weeks.

but - am going to hold the rest. still hoping this one becomes the "next HOM or IPII". we'll see. given an unjustified dip, will also buy some more back.

i might not have sold any, but - couldn't resist IAIC as it dipped into the .50's, really wanted to take a larger position there. so basically i shifted some KSWW profits into IAIC today to spread risk a bit, but - am still holding the bulk of KSWW.

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JimMeredith
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Blue, I guess I should take a hint with your ignores of me lol. I guess I said something you didn't like. Oh well, if I pissed you off too bad.
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blue_in_MI
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uhhh... huh?

sorry, not sure what you mean, JM - how did I ignore you, and somehow prompt you to say "if I pissed you off too bad"?.

as far as I can see; along with a few posts by vg thrown in, it's basically been the two of us bantering back and forth to each other about this stock lately.

as for your previous post about RSI and when to sell and the like, was trying to respond by giving my own philosophy on when to sell. which is quite often wrong btw - tend to always sell too early! i didn't answer your specific skillz point because, frankly, i generally thing skillz is a very good poster even though we don't always agree at times.

anyway - guess I'm a little confused by your post. especially because i usually end up droning on to myself in threads, i always welcome open discussion, and don't try to ignore anybody who is actually willing to discuss a stock i'm interested in with me. so i think there's some misunderstanding going on here.

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JimMeredith
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Ok sorry, Blue. You have to admit Skillz has been on a war path saying people are stupid and all for holding about every hour it sems. He has been wrong before on other stocks, so I just take what he says with a grain of salt. Is he still debating what a gap is with the others on the board? Again, what do you think the earnings will be... any guesses? Anyway, sorry again.
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blue_in_MI
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If I had to guess re: KSW's earnings, I'd say somewhere on the order of .10-.11 this upcoming Q, then ramping up towards more in the .15-.20 range for the next Q's. For the upcoming year, I'd hope for .75/sh total, but - my guess would be anywhere in a range of .45 to .80, with perhaps low .60's being most likely.

But - it's really hard to say imho. to some degree it depends on how well KSW transitions into becoming a bigger company, as it likely will be with it's giant backlog. Maybe there will be some additional costs I'm not expecting: getting new workers up to speed, maybe they need to buy some more equipment or office space or whatever that will cost in the short term but will pay off in the long run.

Always a tricky game, trying to guess earnings per share. Sometimes you get a happy surprise (like MIG exceeding expectations), sometimes you get a crappy surprise (like PDGE's lousy last Q).

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blue_in_MI
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ouch, only .06! have to read later, too many meetings this am:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060505/20060505005300.html?.v=1

am not having much luck holding into earnings lately

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JimMeredith
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Even though it was .06 it still doubled year to year. I know everyone was expecting bigger numbers esp. with such a big backlog.

Blue, you are correct about not really knowing what to expect since there are many factors to different levels of profit. Do you think the pps will remain flat until the next qtr?

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blue_in_MI
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actually did earn .10, but - took a hit on stock options etc:

"Included in the results of the first quarter 2006, are stock compensation expenses of $199,000, related to the exercising of stock options and the adoption of the new accounting standard, FAS-123R. KSW's financial results for prior periods have not been restated for FAS-123R. Excluding the effect of these stock compensation expenses, the Company earned $545,000, or $.10 per share (basic and diluted)."


JM, obviously my guesses are all over the map in terms of their accuracy. if i had to guess though, yeah - i'd guess that KSW will trade within about a 10-15% range or so for awhile. i'm going to just hold, i think they can do better next Q. we'll see.

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JimMeredith
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Yep, .10 was a decent number. However, I will be on the sidelines for a while. This had so much potential to really hit the ball out of the park...I think it will still happen, just at a later time though.
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blue_in_MI
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2Q out for KSW today after the bell:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060802/20060802005972.html?.v=1

very nice topline with revs coming in at over $20M. bottom line earned .11/sh, i was hoping for a little more but still pretty good. backog $84M or perhaps a year's worth of work.

still hard for me to think that KSW is overvalued trading just above 4, especially factoring in their sterling balance sheet. i'm going to keep holding the remainder of my shares i have left.

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blue_in_MI
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disappointing to see this one dip below 4, 3.85 close yesterday. by my calculation based on the Q

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004125/000092189506001778/form10q06663_0 6302006.htm

they hold 1.83/sh in pure cash, very solid balance sheet. earned .11 on the Q and .18 the first 6 months, with the business (subtracting out the cash/share) only being valued by the market at about $2/share.

only thing i can think is that builders are just out of favor now, with people worrying about housing crashes and bubbles bursting. certainly there is cause for concern here in MI, with the big 3 automakers struggling mightily: unemployment just jumped up to 7%, and indicators are that house prices dipped a whopping 8% in the last Q alone. was in NJ over the weekend, prices also starting to dip there, though not as drastically. toll brothers has lost half it's value in a relatively short time, a good indicator of the nervousness about building stocks. KSW works on buildings rather than houses, but - still, i guess just being grouped in with the broader decline in building stocks, despite their positive points of a strong balance sheet and good earnings so far. people clearly worried that future earnings will not be as good. will be interesting to watch their backlog over the next few Q's: currently at about a year's worth of work.

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a surfer
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According to our real estate team, during the month of June, Florida existing home sales fell 29% year-over-year. Notable declines included Naples (-48%), Sarasota-Bradenton (-40%), Daytona Beach (-39%), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton (-39%), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-34%). Further demonstrating the market’s weakness, the single-family statewide median sales price of $257,800 exceeded the median price a year ago by only 3%, with markets such as Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-5%), Panama City (-10%), and Sarasota-Bradenton (-3%) showing year/year sales price declines. Additionally, Florida condominium sales declined 35% year/year to 5,241 units, with 12 of 20 metro areas posting double-digit declines.

The weakest markets were Punta Gorda (-97%), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-66%), Naples (-48%), Sarasota-Bradenton (-48%), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-47%). Moreover, the median condominium price during the month was $212,500, a 1% decline versus the period a year ago, although nine markets reported year/year declines in median prices. Notable weakness was cited in Fort Walton Beach (-42%), Daytona Beach (-14%), Panama City (-12%), Jacksonville (-9%), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-7%), and Orlando (-4%).

Regrettably, we can only envision this “homesick” environment getting worse, amplified by the $2.7 trillion worth of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) that will reset at a higher interest rate in 2006/2007. This comes on top of the fact that 10% of all home owners with mortgages have no equity in their houses, while 15% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth. As reprised in Barron’s: “At the end of 2003, 1% of Washington Mutual’s option ARMS were in negative amortization (payments not covering interest, so the shortfall was added to principal). At the end of 2004, the percentage jumped to 21%. At the end of 2005, the percentage jumped again to 47%.

. . . Negative amortization and other short-term loans on long-term assets don’t work because eventually too many borrowers are unable to pay the loans down – or unwilling to keep paying for an asset that has declined in value relative to their outstanding balance. Even a relative brief period of rising mortgage payments, rising debt and falling home values will collapse the system. And when the housing-finance system goes, the rest of the economy will go with it.”

So yeah, we think what is occurring in real estate has far reaching implications for the economy since for the past few years real estate has been responsible for much of the nation’s job growth. Moreover, as the good folks at the Liscio Report note (again from Barron’s): “Each dollar spent on residential construction generates $1.27 in additional economic activity. That’s topped only by manufacturing ($1.37) and handily bests the contribution of healthcare (54 to 81 cents, depending on which part of the amorphous field you’re talking about), retail (57 cents), and finance (53 cents). Not only [has] the kick from housing . . . been enormously important in recent years . . . but, the actual effect has been far greater since that $1.27 of additional economic thrust doesn’t include the hardly inconsequential economic stimulus of remodeling or mortgage-equity withdrawal. Housing’s fade seems destined to hurt all the more since nothing else – not capital spending or government largess – seems primed to take up the slack.”

So to reiterate, we think what is going on in real estate currently has VERY significant ramifications for the economy, as well as the stock market. Last week, however, stocks didn’t seem to care as the option expiration induced week left most of the indices we follow 3%-to-6% higher and once again positive on the year. Interestingly, while the S&P 500 and D-J Industrial Average broke out above their respective June/July reaction highs, many of the other indices did not. Also of note is that last week’s rally was led by the hitherto lagging tech stocks rather than the previous market leaders, causing one Wall Street
wag to lament, “When they run the laggards the overall rally is long of tooth.”

Nevertheless, in this business what you see is what you get, and despite a number of upside nonconfirmations by various other indexes, and the low volume, the S&P 500 broke out above the 1290 – 1296 zone that we thought would contain any rally attempt. That breakout can be seen in the nearby chart from the invaluable service www.thechartstore.com. The question then becomes, “Breakout or fake-out?!” If it is legitimate, the near-term target should be the May highs at 1326, yet we remain skeptical.

The call for this week: Surprisingly, China raised interest rates on Friday to over 6% (6.12%) as the worldwide “rate ratchet” continues. Also rumors that major terrorist tactics are planned for the Iranian ultimatum (August 22), all of which has the pre-opening futures lower (-4 points the S&P 500). Meanwhile, this week’s housing report should shed further light on our “homesick” thesis as we contemplate if this is just a mid-cycle slowdown or something worse.
For those of you who believe last week was a breakout, and not a fake-out, we suggest considering Budd Bugatch’s upgrade this morning on 3.2% yielding Furniture Brands (FBN/$19.80/Strong Buy).

Scary #'s I am in Naples

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blue_in_MI
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haven't posted for awhile, just perusing around to see what's up here on allstocks.

am still holding KSW, nice to see it raise from $4 back back in august to about $6 range now. actually i added some more today as they are dipping slightly lately.

i liked the trump announcement back in dec and the fact that their backlog is now a whopping $110M, not too shabby. last Q not too bad, earned .14/sh on $21M in revs. anyone else still following this one?

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blue_in_MI
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very nice Q posted this week, surprised it couldn't hold 7 and dipped back to mid-6's. still holding long
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