This is topic KSWW making a run soon? in forum Hot Stocks Free for All ! at Allstocks.com's Bulletin Board.


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Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
current price $4.14 with a 8 pe could go to $5 plus soon in my opinion.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
agree, i like this stock and took an initial position last week (wish i would have taken one earlier, d'oh!).

has risen a lot over the last year, but - still strikes me as room to go higher: good balance sheet, huge backlog, low trailing and forward P/E's. i like it; i'm in. at some point may write up a pro/con summary if i have the time/inclination.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
RGMI is another one to look at. But yeah, KSWW should have pretty good numbers when they report sometime next month. Volume is also picking up, so I can't say if the two are related or not. I don't think the p/e at 8 will go lower, it should be above 10 maybe 15 after the next quarterly. Growing companies deserve a growing P/E. Look forward to your pro/con list...always good to hear both sides on any stock from others.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
KSWW has another contract for 16M for a total of 100M in back log. This company is undervalued in my opinion.

GV is another stock looking good finally.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
heh, you just beat me to posting about this, JM. i added another block of KSWW this morning, looks very good to me.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, it's crazy that the pps can't seem to break out of this range. However, I think some profit taker probably bought at a very low price but he should be gone soon with all this volume lately.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
We should hear something soon about the AMEX soon and if they were approved. If they are I think the price will move up quick with a lot of eyes looking how great this stock is. Very undervalued growth low floater that should kick into gear soon.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
sorry it has been in gear but seems stuck in 4th for now though.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
really, i'm amazed that KSWW barely budged today. which is fine with me - will plan to add some tomorrow as well.

imho, a lot to like about this stock:

$100M (!) backlog - that's a year or two worth of work. i really like big backlogs, i consider them a form of safety net.

good balance sheet, over a buck a share in cash.

revs and profits both uptrending:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=KSWW.OB

i'm betting they should be able to net at least $4M over the next 4 Q's, which would be about .71/share. subtract out the cash/share, the business is being valued at about $3/sh. i can't believe they're only worth 4-5x earnings.

plus the AMEX application, and the potential there.

really this is a "prototypical" stock that i like to look for to add to my basket of microcap holdings, has most of what i look for in a stock.

no telling how it will do down the road, some stocks/companies always surprise to the upside, some to the downside. but - i remain convinced that if one invests in a basket of stocks with characteristics similar to KSWW, one should do well in the long run. imho it's a "no-brainer" to add to my microcap basket.

also, of course i'm a stubborn sob, i don't mind waiting through short-term choppiness and am perfectly happy to hold long and ignore the noise, as long as the underlying fundamentals remain sound.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, I couldn't have said it better myself. I like this as well as GV, ERS (over bought now days though) ERI, RGMI.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
bought enough KSWW this week to move into the top 5 of my OTC/pink holdings. reminds me a little of HOM and IPII at earlier stages, hopefully it will someday have a similar run as those two. we'll see. in any event, risk/reward looks good to me on this one.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Shares Outstanding: 5.64M
Float: 3.17M

If we get the AMEX and a great quarter this low floater will really fly. I wouldn't be surprised if it hits the teens sometime late this year with all this growth. That is if they don't dilute which shouldn't happen since the books are great and they are very profitable.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
very nice last half hour today, finally broke that wall at 4.25 on good volume, at least temporarily.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, I heard that news about the AMEX should come out next week.
 
Posted by vg on :
 
I like the P/E on this one, got in yesterday at 4.13 and i'm already loving it. I like companies that have huge backlogs. Another one i've had for some time with a backlog is ZENX I would recommend it to others when it settles down a little, its moved up too tast the last few days to jump in, I was lucky to get in at 0.70. a few months back
 
Posted by vg on :
 
KSW, Inc. to Trade on AMEX


By BusinessWire
Last Update: 4/27/2006 8:50:01 AM Data provided by

LONG ISLAND CITY, N.Y., Apr 27, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- KSW, Inc. (OTCBB:KSWW.OB) today reported that its application to list its common stock on the American Stock Exchange has been approved. This approval is contingent upon the Company being in compliance with all applicable listing standards on the date it begins trading on the Exchange, and may be rescinded if the Company is not in compliance with such standards.

The Company expects its stock to begin trading on the AMEX on May 3, 2006, under the symbol KSW.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
very nice! moving up sharply at the open
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
That was quicker than I thought, now for the quarterly.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
Q due may 16, i believe.

very nice day for KSW - encountered stiff resistance at 4.70, but pushed through it at least slighty towards EOD, up about 15% the last few days.

really it is the long-term prospects that interest me with KSWW, though. hopefully the increased exposure on the AMEX will help them get noticed by a wider audience in the future - the majority of investors are simply not interested in any OTC stocks.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, once they get on the AMEX do you think they will get some institutions looking into buying some shares even with the tiny float of 3million? I mean the growth is there, the books are great, backlog is very nice, nice cash on hand, p/e is good...I could go on. I wouldn't be surprised to see even more big contracts coming in during the rest of the year. Getting back to institutions, I think we will see some if my history repeats, however, would they get on with the 3m float? Anyone want to give their thoughts?
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
dunno JM, could be - would be nice. i suppose one could go and look at IPII - similar situation as KSWW moving off OTC - and see what kind of institutional ownership they have at this point. am not sure where to look that up though, honestly; will try to google this weekend.

very nice week for KSWW, trading over 5 at least for the moment.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Nice week indeed, Blue. Next week should be good as well once they get on the AMEX and new investors see this new comer with no debt and all the other good stuff we already talked about here.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
following up on my previous post, IPII institutional ownership is here:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp?Symbol=ipii

looks like 9% ownership, though not sure if that data is current. another one sometimes discussed here - AOB (similar move to larger exchange): 12%. RELM which became RWC - 24%. FPPC which became FPP - 3%. XWG - 5%. GTE - 6%. just kind of paging through a list of some stocks am familiar with moving from OTC to a larger exchange to get a sampling.

in any event - range varies fairly widely, but on average: perhaps a 10% or so institutional ownership might be considered common for this type of stock once they move to a larger exchange.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
According to Yahoo, the industry P/E average is 28.18 and ours is at 10...and a growing business on top of that. I think we will make it to around $6 this week or next.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Someone did some numbers on KSWW and FIX, both in the same type of business, and it shows how much KSWW could go up compared to FIX. I can see a 20 p/e being the norm soon for this growth stock.


http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10894420
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
certainly some very nice momentum going - very strong at the close for a +9% today. am going to continue to hold, can't see any reason to sell it. if HOM can break ten bucks (!), as it did today, i don't see why KSWW couldn't have a ways further to go. we'll see.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Nice volume again today of 488,155, and the P/E is still under 11 with the .45 gain. Profitable companies that go into the AMEX do very well imo. I see no reason at all why this shouldn't end up with a 20 p/e soon since it is going on the amex. That would still be almost a double from here. Are you guys still in?
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, I just now saw your post after I sent mine, glad to see you're still in as well.
 
Posted by vg on :
 
Jim there is no reason for me to sell at this point. I dont think it will go back to the price that I bought it if the share structure stays the same. After wednesday it will be even better. I might think of if after that. But right now its in my long term stock portfolio
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
VG, I agree...who knows maybe the momo guys will jump on board with this low float.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
kinda started with a bang and ended with a fizzle, but - still, not a bad day for KSWW at +.11.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
I'll take .11 I'm glad that gap was filled though... I don't like gaps because the mm's always try to fill them sooner or later.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
I guess the ones that bought on rumor and sold on fact are gone now, back up in the green.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
American Stock Exchange Lists Common Stock of KSW, Inc.

NEW YORK, May 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The American Stock Exchange(R) (Amex(R))
today listed the common stock of KSW, Inc. under the ticker symbol KSW.
Based in Queens, New York, KSW, Inc. furnishes and installs heating,
ventilating and air conditioning ("HVAC") systems and process piping systems
for institutional, industrial, commercial, high-rise residential and public
works projects. KSW, Inc. also acts as trade manager on larger construction
projects, such as Weill Cornell Medical Center and the Cardiovascular Center
at New York Presbyterian Hospital.
"We proudly welcome KSW, Inc. to the American Stock Exchange," said John
McGonegal, Senior Vice President of Amex's equities group. "We hope to provide
the company with the type of assistance it needs to meet its objectives in the
marketplace."
KSW's Chairman, Floyd Warkol, stated: "We are pleased to offer our
shareholders the increased visibility and greater liquidity available to them
through our listing of common stock on the American Stock Exchange. We hope
this provides access for a broader investor community."
The specialist in KSW, Inc. will be Kellogg Capital Group. For further
information on KSW and other Amex-listed companies, please visit www.amex.com.
The American Stock Exchange(R) (Amex(R)) is the only primary exchange that
offers trading across a full range of equities, options and exchange traded
funds (ETFs), including structured products and HOLDRS(SM). In addition to
its role as a national equities market, the Amex is the pioneer of the ETF,
responsible for bringing the first domestic product to market in 1993.
Leading the industry in ETF listings, the Amex lists 166 ETFs. The Amex is
also one of the largest options exchanges in the U.S., trading options on
broad-based and sector indexes as well as domestic and foreign stocks. For
more information, please visit www.amex.com.
SOURCE American Stock Exchange

Media Contact: Kelsey Hubbard of American Stock Exchange, +1-212-306-1640, or


Now we should see some more action soon.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Any guesses on Q1? I hope for .08 or more, but the numbers should be better year to year regaurdless. I'm hoping for major blowout earnings but I won't get too ahead of myself.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
six bucks, beauty
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, I wouldn't listen to SSkillz, it seems pretty obvious that he is trying to get sellers out there to lower the price. He has been saying the same thing over and over on other stocks. While the rsi is high it doesn't keep a stock from running up to catch up to fair value.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
i took 1/3 off the table today at 6.03, couldn't resist hedging by taking a 50% gain in a few weeks.

but - am going to hold the rest. still hoping this one becomes the "next HOM or IPII". we'll see. given an unjustified dip, will also buy some more back.

i might not have sold any, but - couldn't resist IAIC as it dipped into the .50's, really wanted to take a larger position there. so basically i shifted some KSWW profits into IAIC today to spread risk a bit, but - am still holding the bulk of KSWW.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Blue, I guess I should take a hint with your ignores of me lol. I guess I said something you didn't like. Oh well, if I pissed you off too bad.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
uhhh... huh?

sorry, not sure what you mean, JM - how did I ignore you, and somehow prompt you to say "if I pissed you off too bad"?.

as far as I can see; along with a few posts by vg thrown in, it's basically been the two of us bantering back and forth to each other about this stock lately.

as for your previous post about RSI and when to sell and the like, was trying to respond by giving my own philosophy on when to sell. which is quite often wrong btw - tend to always sell too early! i didn't answer your specific skillz point because, frankly, i generally thing skillz is a very good poster even though we don't always agree at times.

anyway - guess I'm a little confused by your post. especially because i usually end up droning on to myself in threads, i always welcome open discussion, and don't try to ignore anybody who is actually willing to discuss a stock i'm interested in with me. so i think there's some misunderstanding going on here.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Ok sorry, Blue. You have to admit Skillz has been on a war path saying people are stupid and all for holding about every hour it sems. He has been wrong before on other stocks, so I just take what he says with a grain of salt. Is he still debating what a gap is with the others on the board? Again, what do you think the earnings will be... any guesses? Anyway, sorry again.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
If I had to guess re: KSW's earnings, I'd say somewhere on the order of .10-.11 this upcoming Q, then ramping up towards more in the .15-.20 range for the next Q's. For the upcoming year, I'd hope for .75/sh total, but - my guess would be anywhere in a range of .45 to .80, with perhaps low .60's being most likely.

But - it's really hard to say imho. to some degree it depends on how well KSW transitions into becoming a bigger company, as it likely will be with it's giant backlog. Maybe there will be some additional costs I'm not expecting: getting new workers up to speed, maybe they need to buy some more equipment or office space or whatever that will cost in the short term but will pay off in the long run.

Always a tricky game, trying to guess earnings per share. Sometimes you get a happy surprise (like MIG exceeding expectations), sometimes you get a crappy surprise (like PDGE's lousy last Q).
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
ouch, only .06! have to read later, too many meetings this am:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060505/20060505005300.html?.v=1

am not having much luck holding into earnings lately
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Even though it was .06 it still doubled year to year. I know everyone was expecting bigger numbers esp. with such a big backlog.

Blue, you are correct about not really knowing what to expect since there are many factors to different levels of profit. Do you think the pps will remain flat until the next qtr?
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
actually did earn .10, but - took a hit on stock options etc:

"Included in the results of the first quarter 2006, are stock compensation expenses of $199,000, related to the exercising of stock options and the adoption of the new accounting standard, FAS-123R. KSW's financial results for prior periods have not been restated for FAS-123R. Excluding the effect of these stock compensation expenses, the Company earned $545,000, or $.10 per share (basic and diluted)."


JM, obviously my guesses are all over the map in terms of their accuracy. if i had to guess though, yeah - i'd guess that KSW will trade within about a 10-15% range or so for awhile. i'm going to just hold, i think they can do better next Q. we'll see.
 
Posted by JimMeredith on :
 
Yep, .10 was a decent number. However, I will be on the sidelines for a while. This had so much potential to really hit the ball out of the park...I think it will still happen, just at a later time though.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
2Q out for KSW today after the bell:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060802/20060802005972.html?.v=1

very nice topline with revs coming in at over $20M. bottom line earned .11/sh, i was hoping for a little more but still pretty good. backog $84M or perhaps a year's worth of work.

still hard for me to think that KSW is overvalued trading just above 4, especially factoring in their sterling balance sheet. i'm going to keep holding the remainder of my shares i have left.
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
disappointing to see this one dip below 4, 3.85 close yesterday. by my calculation based on the Q

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1004125/000092189506001778/form10q06663_0 6302006.htm

they hold 1.83/sh in pure cash, very solid balance sheet. earned .11 on the Q and .18 the first 6 months, with the business (subtracting out the cash/share) only being valued by the market at about $2/share.

only thing i can think is that builders are just out of favor now, with people worrying about housing crashes and bubbles bursting. certainly there is cause for concern here in MI, with the big 3 automakers struggling mightily: unemployment just jumped up to 7%, and indicators are that house prices dipped a whopping 8% in the last Q alone. was in NJ over the weekend, prices also starting to dip there, though not as drastically. toll brothers has lost half it's value in a relatively short time, a good indicator of the nervousness about building stocks. KSW works on buildings rather than houses, but - still, i guess just being grouped in with the broader decline in building stocks, despite their positive points of a strong balance sheet and good earnings so far. people clearly worried that future earnings will not be as good. will be interesting to watch their backlog over the next few Q's: currently at about a year's worth of work.
 
Posted by a surfer on :
 
According to our real estate team, during the month of June, Florida existing home sales fell 29% year-over-year. Notable declines included Naples (-48%), Sarasota-Bradenton (-40%), Daytona Beach (-39%), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton (-39%), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-34%). Further demonstrating the market’s weakness, the single-family statewide median sales price of $257,800 exceeded the median price a year ago by only 3%, with markets such as Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-5%), Panama City (-10%), and Sarasota-Bradenton (-3%) showing year/year sales price declines. Additionally, Florida condominium sales declined 35% year/year to 5,241 units, with 12 of 20 metro areas posting double-digit declines.

The weakest markets were Punta Gorda (-97%), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-66%), Naples (-48%), Sarasota-Bradenton (-48%), and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (-47%). Moreover, the median condominium price during the month was $212,500, a 1% decline versus the period a year ago, although nine markets reported year/year declines in median prices. Notable weakness was cited in Fort Walton Beach (-42%), Daytona Beach (-14%), Panama City (-12%), Jacksonville (-9%), Fort Myers-Cape Coral (-7%), and Orlando (-4%).

Regrettably, we can only envision this “homesick” environment getting worse, amplified by the $2.7 trillion worth of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) that will reset at a higher interest rate in 2006/2007. This comes on top of the fact that 10% of all home owners with mortgages have no equity in their houses, while 15% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth. As reprised in Barron’s: “At the end of 2003, 1% of Washington Mutual’s option ARMS were in negative amortization (payments not covering interest, so the shortfall was added to principal). At the end of 2004, the percentage jumped to 21%. At the end of 2005, the percentage jumped again to 47%.

. . . Negative amortization and other short-term loans on long-term assets don’t work because eventually too many borrowers are unable to pay the loans down – or unwilling to keep paying for an asset that has declined in value relative to their outstanding balance. Even a relative brief period of rising mortgage payments, rising debt and falling home values will collapse the system. And when the housing-finance system goes, the rest of the economy will go with it.”

So yeah, we think what is occurring in real estate has far reaching implications for the economy since for the past few years real estate has been responsible for much of the nation’s job growth. Moreover, as the good folks at the Liscio Report note (again from Barron’s): “Each dollar spent on residential construction generates $1.27 in additional economic activity. That’s topped only by manufacturing ($1.37) and handily bests the contribution of healthcare (54 to 81 cents, depending on which part of the amorphous field you’re talking about), retail (57 cents), and finance (53 cents). Not only [has] the kick from housing . . . been enormously important in recent years . . . but, the actual effect has been far greater since that $1.27 of additional economic thrust doesn’t include the hardly inconsequential economic stimulus of remodeling or mortgage-equity withdrawal. Housing’s fade seems destined to hurt all the more since nothing else – not capital spending or government largess – seems primed to take up the slack.”

So to reiterate, we think what is going on in real estate currently has VERY significant ramifications for the economy, as well as the stock market. Last week, however, stocks didn’t seem to care as the option expiration induced week left most of the indices we follow 3%-to-6% higher and once again positive on the year. Interestingly, while the S&P 500 and D-J Industrial Average broke out above their respective June/July reaction highs, many of the other indices did not. Also of note is that last week’s rally was led by the hitherto lagging tech stocks rather than the previous market leaders, causing one Wall Street
wag to lament, “When they run the laggards the overall rally is long of tooth.”

Nevertheless, in this business what you see is what you get, and despite a number of upside nonconfirmations by various other indexes, and the low volume, the S&P 500 broke out above the 1290 – 1296 zone that we thought would contain any rally attempt. That breakout can be seen in the nearby chart from the invaluable service www.thechartstore.com. The question then becomes, “Breakout or fake-out?!” If it is legitimate, the near-term target should be the May highs at 1326, yet we remain skeptical.

The call for this week: Surprisingly, China raised interest rates on Friday to over 6% (6.12%) as the worldwide “rate ratchet” continues. Also rumors that major terrorist tactics are planned for the Iranian ultimatum (August 22), all of which has the pre-opening futures lower (-4 points the S&P 500). Meanwhile, this week’s housing report should shed further light on our “homesick” thesis as we contemplate if this is just a mid-cycle slowdown or something worse.
For those of you who believe last week was a breakout, and not a fake-out, we suggest considering Budd Bugatch’s upgrade this morning on 3.2% yielding Furniture Brands (FBN/$19.80/Strong Buy).

Scary #'s I am in Naples
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
haven't posted for awhile, just perusing around to see what's up here on allstocks.

am still holding KSW, nice to see it raise from $4 back back in august to about $6 range now. actually i added some more today as they are dipping slightly lately.

i liked the trump announcement back in dec and the fact that their backlog is now a whopping $110M, not too shabby. last Q not too bad, earned .14/sh on $21M in revs. anyone else still following this one?
 
Posted by blue_in_MI on :
 
very nice Q posted this week, surprised it couldn't hold 7 and dipped back to mid-6's. still holding long
 


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