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AMEP--best OTC ONG buy in the market,expect to pay 5 times this level soon.Theres actually very little resistance well into the .04's and the way shares are held its going to be harder to get a decent amount without chasing it.
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they are doing everything they can to try an entice some sellers into profit taking..I am tellin ya,shares are far more tighter then many think.
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I am expecting multiple new HOD's today and I am happy with the way they are moving this,we will stay on solid ground this way.I do want to se this near .04 today to test the waters,the MM's will pull out profit takers at that level imo and then we really walk it up
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this article shows just how important owning your own rig is!! Do not even under estimate that move by AMEP!!
by Dan Piller Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Record natural-gas prices in the wake of Hurricane Katrina have stoked even more interest in the Barnett Shale drilling play around Fort Worth, but tight supplies for drilling rigs means that expansion of the field isn't likely to accelerate beyond earlier plans.
"Day rates for rigs have gone up, but that's not the real problem -- the problem is just getting a rig," says veteran Fort Worth oilman Dick Lowe, whose Four Sevens Oil Co. has had to wait an extra month for a drilling rig it plans to put on a site in Fort Worth at East Loop 820 and Interstate 30.
Weatherford drilling consultant Jimmy Thomas, a geologist who has interests in 30 wells and has followed the Barnett Shale play since the late 1990s, says, "The Barnett Shale is hotter than ever."
The "rig choke," as Lowe calls it, has manifested itself in higher day rates producers must pay for rigs. At the beginning of this decade, a jackknife rig could be had for about $6,000 per day. But back then, of course, natural gas sold for about $3, oil was still below $30 per barrel, and the U.S. drilling-rig count stood at about 700 working rigs.
In midsummer this year, Patterson-UTI of Snyder, which owns about one-third of the nation's oil- and gas-drilling rigs, quoted day rates of $12,000 to $13,000 for rigs during July and August. Chairman Cloyce Talbott said the rate is likely to reach $15,000 during the fourth quarter.
The Barnett Shale was doing nicely even before Hurricane Katrina shut down about a quarter of the nation's natural-gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday, about 30 percent of the lost production had been restored but not before natural-gas prices shot up to $12 per thousand cubic feet, from $8 to $9 two weeks ago.
Drillers have responded to higher natural-gas prices. More than 1,400 drilling rigs were working onshore in the United States last week, more than 600 in Texas.
The number of rigs working in the six-county Barnett Shale field, which was opened in 1999, rose from 81 March 1 to 101 May 1. But since then the total has remained static, settling at 100 July 1, 106 August 1 and 102 at the end of last week.
The Barnett Shale play has expanded south and east of Johnson County this summer, with four rigs working in Bosque, Hill and Ellis counties as well as four more to the west in Palo Pinto County. Other rigs worked earlier in Erath County.
"If you're an established producer with relationships with the driller and some contracts, you'll be able to get equipment," Lowe said. "If not, you'll have a tough time."
The Barnett Shale is a rarity among natural-gas fields in Texas: Its production still is increasing. From total production of 79 billion cubic feet in 2000, the Barnett Shale has expanded to annual production of 368 billion cubic feet last year and along the way become Texas' largest-producing field.
The field is likely to keep that distinction this year. Through mid-2004, it had produced 210 billion cubic feet, up from 179 billion cubic feet a year ago. Producers have optimistic plans to expand the play, not only in the original Wise-Denton-Tarrant county zone northwest of Fort Worth but into Johnson, Parker and Hood counties as well.
Indeed, the increased drilling this year has come in those counties south and west of Fort Worth. The aggressive entries of two Fort Worth players, XTO Energy and Quicksilver Resources, have pushed up the drilling-rig counts in Johnson County from 15 in March to 32 last month and from eight to 15 rigs in Parker County. Hood County's rig count grew from two in March to seven in June, but the number declined to four last month.
The tightness in rig supplies isn't a surprise, given the erosion in the drilling industry after the early 1980s. The record rig count is 4,530 rigs, in December 1981. But shortly after that, the price of oil collapsed, and two-thirds of the nation's energy industry went into liquidation.
Much of the iron and steel that drilled wells was sold for scrap. By 1998, the rig count had sunk to 499, the lowest level since records have been kept. Only this summer has the rig count reached 1,400.
The price conditions that idled so many rigs have long gone away. Natural gas, which sold for less than $2.50 at the beginning of this decade, has soared in price thanks to heavy demand from new electricity generators.
Demand has been particularly heavy this summer because of peak electricity loads to power the nation's air conditioners. That demand pushed prices above $8 by mid-August, making it more difficult for gas utilities to fill storage caverns with the gas needed to get through cold snaps during winter heating season.
According to U.S. Energy Department figures, the nation was about 1 trillion cubic feet short of the 3.3 trillion cubic feet of stored gas that is considered a sufficient supply for a typical American winter. That was before Hurricane Katrina blew away 24 percent of U.S. production that comes from the Gulf of Mexico. That 24 percent effectively matches Texas' share of annual production.
For that reason Daniel Yergin, author of the seminal work The Prize and considered one of the nation's foremost energy experts, said last week that "the run-up in natural-gas prices is the real story of Hurricane Katrina."
Indeed, although crude oil's spike was about 5 percent at the peak of the markets' reaction to Katrina last week, natural gas rose by 20 percent to nearly $12.
Those prices make obsolete earlier warnings by the Energy Department and utilities like Dallas-based Atmos Energy, which supplies gas to residential and commercial customers in Dallas-Fort Worth, that winter heating bills could rise by as much as 20 percent.
The higher natural-gas costs will probably be passed to consumers when TXU Corp. requests another rate increase from state regulators. TXU warned that it would seek an increase in mid-July; but now that request is likely to be higher than anticipated. Electricity rates have already risen 46 percent since early 2002, largely because of the rising natural-gas costs.
About 50 percent of Texas' electricity is generated from natural gas.
FYI... (AMEP and CB is truly blessed to have acquired a big Ideco Rig to develop the 7,000 acres over the Barnett. Success and profitability is at hand for AMEP.) ... %^ greeneyedhawk
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US natural gas production 'crippled for months'
Three weeks after Hurricane Katrina struck one of the world's most important natural gas producing regions, 35 per cent of Gulf of Mexico production remains off-line, and analysts say gas production there will remain "crippled for months".
"The hurricane has propelled already record high gas prices to an even higher plane, with no relief in sight," according to Wood Mackenzie, the consulting and research company.
Some analysts predict natural gas prices will average $12 per thousand cubic feet this winter – double the cost last winter. Jason Gammel of Prudential Equity Group believes higher natural gas prices will be more important for US consumers than high petrol prices, which already average more than $3 per gallon.
IP: Logged |
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I won't be here for open today,I have a court session but should be back by noon,I will have buys set at differant levels for any retracement since it is Friday,Berlin is nuts today,up66% then down 20%,looks like a lot of covering going on there.
Natural Gas Shortages Worry Bush Officials
By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer Tue Sep 13,11:22 AM ET
BATON ROUGE, La. - Senior Bush administration officials touring the Gulf Coast area devastated by Hurricane Katrina expressed concern Tuesday about possible shortages of natural gas, saying that the region's production may not recover for months.
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said there is less known about the damage to the natural gas supply system than about the effect on crude oil production. He said in addition to possible pipeline damage, the hurricane also shut down gas processing facilities on-shore.
"The great concern is about natural gas," Bodman told reporters as he flew to Louisiana from Houston.
Interior Secretary Gail Norton, who accompanied Bodman, said that 90 percent of the Gulf oil platforms "will be capable of production by the end of the month." But she said damage to on-shore facilities is expected to keep oil production down.
Norton said that 58 percent of Gulf oil production remains shut down, as does 38 percent of the region's natural gas production.
"But there is more concern about gas because we don't have an international market" that the country could rely on for additional supplies as it does with oil, she said.
Last week, the Energy Information Administration estimated that natural gas prices would soar this winter because of the hurricane, including increases as much as 71 percent in parts of the Midwest.
Bodman and Norton were to visit the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve facility near Baton Rouge. The government is already supplying oil to some refineries from the reserve on a loan basis.
Later the two Cabinet secretaries were to tour an Exxon Mobile refinery near Baton Rouge that escaped damage from the hurricane but had to scale back production because of the shortage of crude oil. The refinery has since resumed production using SPR supplies.
Bodman and Norton met with senior executives from two dozen energy companies Monday evening in Houston. The executives said they needed government help in arranging for housing for thousands of employees as they struggled to return the Gulf's oil and gas system to full operation, he said.
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By: trazbul 16 Sep 2005, 10:55 AM EDT Msg. 26680 of 26689 Jump to msg. # We had 3% institutional activity yesterday and 3% of the total over the last month, according to I-watch....watch this amount go up in the near term, IMHO....this bodes well for the longs here.
This morning's drop was to be expected simply based on our recent daily gains without news...it is healthy! All that said and as I said before, the next PR about drilling in progress and then followed by hitting pay-dirt, will launch this stock to I beleive to the .10 range, or estimated current fair value, as estimated by many knowledgable posters here.
I would not be surprised to see some heavy buying this afternoon either.....GLTA!
By: oil2005 16 Sep 2005, 10:50 AM EDT Msg. 26678 of 26689 Jump to msg. # www.NaturalGasStocks.com (NGS), and www.OilandGasStockNews.com (OGSN), global investor websites for the natural gas, energy and oil industries report on the impacts in the natural gas arena as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Analyst Philip McPherson, Director of Research, C.K. Cooper & Company, and International Energy Consultants, Purvin & Gertz, Inc. reveal industry insights into the potential market reaction to the disaster as we move forward towards recovery.
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