The month over month trend for four months is going up. The volume over the past 5 of seven months has Strong Accumulation starting back in March when the volume started to rise to 200M+.
After that the volume tapered off in April & May [>100M shares trading] followed by June, July, August & Sept where 300,000M shares became the norm.
AMEP has 500M A/S w/ 300M O/S that leaves 200M+- for dilution. With no S-8's recently it looks like management is waiting for the pps to rise [to a much higher level] before the dilution starts.
I'm betting we see a few to even several positive PR's that have the pps rise significantly.
Time will tell as Winter Demand for oil is one significant factor, as is the Oil America Group limited partnership drilling programs in the Barnett Shale region, that PR that will hit the PR wires very soon...
futrcash on iHub talked to CB: This is a copy of futrcash's post on iHub when I asked about details in his conversation with the CEO CB (Thanks futrcash for sharing your conversation with CB).
greeneyedhawk... To answer your question,there were a few salient points that are relevant. I'm just going to throw them out there,and let people respond as they may. As far as the new rig goes,CB is expecting all of the towers(3 sections)motors etc.should be in the yard sometime this week.After that he's expecting a full shakeout and assessment of all the parts i.e. motors,transmission,etc.,including needed upgrades and repairs if necessary, to be completed by the end of the month.With drilling commencing upon the finalization of that process.He emphasized that it would be foolish to hold him to a set time frame as there might be some unanticipated mechanical glitch such as a missing part which could delay that timeframe so take it fwiw.
With regards to operating emphasis,he made it clear that exploiting the gas reserves in the Barnett Shale is priority #1 with the heavy oil on the remaining acreage secondary.That's no surprise really as the new rig is all about drilling Bend Arches leases. However,that being said,he told me that he felt 3000 barrels a month heavy crude oil production is doable in the short term on the other leases which is nothing to sneeze at.
I also learned that the price AMEP receives for both the gas and oil is set monthly and stays the same price for the entire month.The price they get on the first Monday of the month is what they get for every day for the rest of t6he month,and as a result,the operators do everything in their power to manipulate the price down for the first trading day of the month.
The gathering systen is in place,and they're ready to bring any new production right online if and when that happens.CB's an older guy who seems to be doing what he can to make his company a success,but he also struck me as a man who doesn't want to make any promises he can't keep.The bottom line assessment he gave me is that unless oil and gas prices retreat dramatically the company will be profitable.
Finally with respect to debt,he told me they have NONE.Specifically he told me that noone has called him trying to collect any debt.
posted
watching and waiting myself. Very close to being in the overall green for this stock. Once that happens I won't be as worried from tick to tick.. green is a very good color
-------------------- In AMEP 35,000 * average .041 In AMNI 16,000 * .011 Posts: 148 | From: Virginia | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
Devon, EOG show Barnett shale has momentum Oil & Gas Journal / Aug 8, 2005
Reports from two key operators in the Barnett shale of North Texas show the play has strong momentum.
Devon Energy Corp, Oklahoma City, said its proved reserves in the North Texas Barnett shale gas play exceed the 1.9 tcf of gas equivalent booked when it acquired the Forth Worth basin assets in 2002, in spite of the intervening production.
Devon Energy bought the Barnett shale assets from Mitchell Energy & Development Corp. in January 2002. It now operates 1,830 wells in the formation, having drilled nearly 1,000 wells since the acquisition. The company has 18 rigs running in the play.
Devon Energy reported 1.944 tcfe of Barnett Reserves at the end of 2004.
At 570 MMcfd vs 350 MMcfd in early 2002, Devon Energy produces more gas from the field than all other producers combined. It holds 550,000 net acres, and its wells are mainly in Denton, Johnson, Parker, Tarrant, and Wise counties.
Cumulative production since 1981 from wells operated by Devon Energy and Mitchell Energy surpassed 1 tcf of gas in June 2005. Devon Energy is the largest gas producer in Texas and third largest in the U.S.
Meanwhile, EOG Resources Inc., Houston, holds 490,000 acres in the Barnett shale and plans steady drilling for at least the next 6 years.
"During the second quarter, additional wells drilled to the west of Johnson County, in Hood and Jack counties, continued to confirm the acreage is natural gas and not oil-productive," EOG Resources said. Play observers had believed that the Barnett would produce oil west of a line running through Wise, Parker, and Hood counties.
EOG Resources has established that the formation will produce gas in Johnson, Jack, Erath, Parker , and Hood counties and plans to evaluate Hills and Pal Pinto counties by the end of 2005.
The company is running eight rigs in Johnson and one in Hood. Its net reserves were 133 Bcfe in the Barnett at the end of 2004. Its goal is to average 50 MMcfd from the Barnett in 2005 compared with 6 MMcfd in 2004 and exit 2005 at 80 MMcfd. Output is 54 MMcfd in late July.
Early core data show 90 bcf/sq mile in place on the west side where the Barnett is shallower, compared with 130 bcf/sq mile in Johnson County. EOG said.
EOG said it has leased 125,000 acres in a Barnett look-alike play elsewhere in Texas where it cored a well in the second quarter. It hopes to have test results by yearend 2005.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example. Posts: 2430 | From: CA | Registered: Jun 2005
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by Dan Piller Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Record natural-gas prices in the wake of Hurricane Katrina have stoked even more interest in the Barnett Shale drilling play around Fort Worth, but tight supplies for drilling rigs means that expansion of the field isn't likely to accelerate beyond earlier plans.
"Day rates for rigs have gone up, but that's not the real problem -- the problem is just getting a rig," says veteran Fort Worth oilman Dick Lowe, whose Four Sevens Oil Co. has had to wait an extra month for a drilling rig it plans to put on a site in Fort Worth at East Loop 820 and Interstate 30.
Weatherford drilling consultant Jimmy Thomas, a geologist who has interests in 30 wells and has followed the Barnett Shale play since the late 1990s, says, "The Barnett Shale is hotter than ever."
The "rig choke," as Lowe calls it, has manifested itself in higher day rates producers must pay for rigs. At the beginning of this decade, a jackknife rig could be had for about $6,000 per day. But back then, of course, natural gas sold for about $3, oil was still below $30 per barrel, and the U.S. drilling-rig count stood at about 700 working rigs.
In midsummer this year, Patterson-UTI of Snyder, which owns about one-third of the nation's oil- and gas-drilling rigs, quoted day rates of $12,000 to $13,000 for rigs during July and August. Chairman Cloyce Talbott said the rate is likely to reach $15,000 during the fourth quarter.
The Barnett Shale was doing nicely even before Hurricane Katrina shut down about a quarter of the nation's natural-gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday, about 30 percent of the lost production had been restored but not before natural-gas prices shot up to $12 per thousand cubic feet, from $8 to $9 two weeks ago.
Drillers have responded to higher natural-gas prices. More than 1,400 drilling rigs were working onshore in the United States last week, more than 600 in Texas.
The number of rigs working in the six-county Barnett Shale field, which was opened in 1999, rose from 81 March 1 to 101 May 1. But since then the total has remained static, settling at 100 July 1, 106 August 1 and 102 at the end of last week.
The Barnett Shale play has expanded south and east of Johnson County this summer, with four rigs working in Bosque, Hill and Ellis counties as well as four more to the west in Palo Pinto County. Other rigs worked earlier in Erath County.
"If you're an established producer with relationships with the driller and some contracts, you'll be able to get equipment," Lowe said. "If not, you'll have a tough time."
The Barnett Shale is a rarity among natural-gas fields in Texas: Its production still is increasing. From total production of 79 billion cubic feet in 2000, the Barnett Shale has expanded to annual production of 368 billion cubic feet last year and along the way become Texas' largest-producing field.
The field is likely to keep that distinction this year. Through mid-2004, it had produced 210 billion cubic feet, up from 179 billion cubic feet a year ago. Producers have optimistic plans to expand the play, not only in the original Wise-Denton-Tarrant county zone northwest of Fort Worth but into Johnson, Parker and Hood counties as well.
Indeed, the increased drilling this year has come in those counties south and west of Fort Worth. The aggressive entries of two Fort Worth players, XTO Energy and Quicksilver Resources, have pushed up the drilling-rig counts in Johnson County from 15 in March to 32 last month and from eight to 15 rigs in Parker County. Hood County's rig count grew from two in March to seven in June, but the number declined to four last month.
The tightness in rig supplies isn't a surprise, given the erosion in the drilling industry after the early 1980s. The record rig count is 4,530 rigs, in December 1981. But shortly after that, the price of oil collapsed, and two-thirds of the nation's energy industry went into liquidation.
Much of the iron and steel that drilled wells was sold for scrap. By 1998, the rig count had sunk to 499, the lowest level since records have been kept. Only this summer has the rig count reached 1,400.
The price conditions that idled so many rigs have long gone away. Natural gas, which sold for less than $2.50 at the beginning of this decade, has soared in price thanks to heavy demand from new electricity generators.
Demand has been particularly heavy this summer because of peak electricity loads to power the nation's air conditioners. That demand pushed prices above $8 by mid-August, making it more difficult for gas utilities to fill storage caverns with the gas needed to get through cold snaps during winter heating season.
According to U.S. Energy Department figures, the nation was about 1 trillion cubic feet short of the 3.3 trillion cubic feet of stored gas that is considered a sufficient supply for a typical American winter. That was before Hurricane Katrina blew away 24 percent of U.S. production that comes from the Gulf of Mexico. That 24 percent effectively matches Texas' share of annual production.
For that reason Daniel Yergin, author of the seminal work The Prize and considered one of the nation's foremost energy experts, said last week that "the run-up in natural-gas prices is the real story of Hurricane Katrina."
Indeed, although crude oil's spike was about 5 percent at the peak of the markets' reaction to Katrina last week, natural gas rose by 20 percent to nearly $12.
Those prices make obsolete earlier warnings by the Energy Department and utilities like Dallas-based Atmos Energy, which supplies gas to residential and commercial customers in Dallas-Fort Worth, that winter heating bills could rise by as much as 20 percent.
The higher natural-gas costs will probably be passed to consumers when TXU Corp. requests another rate increase from state regulators. TXU warned that it would seek an increase in mid-July; but now that request is likely to be higher than anticipated. Electricity rates have already risen 46 percent since early 2002, largely because of the rising natural-gas costs.
About 50 percent of Texas' electricity is generated from natural gas.
FYI... (AMEP and CB is truly blessed to have acquired a big Ideco Rig to develop the 7,000 acres over the Barnett. Success and profitability is at hand for AMEP.) info posted by Greeneyedhawk on R B
posted
Natural Gas Shortages Worry Bush Officials By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer Tue Sep 13,11:22 AM ET
BATON ROUGE, La. - Senior Bush administration officials touring the Gulf Coast area devastated by Hurricane Katrina expressed concern Tuesday about possible shortages of natural gas, saying that the region's production may not recover for months.
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said there is less known about the damage to the natural gas supply system than about the effect on crude oil production. He said in addition to possible pipeline damage, the hurricane also shut down gas processing facilities on-shore.
"The great concern is about natural gas," Bodman told reporters as he flew to Louisiana from Houston.
Interior Secretary Gail Norton, who accompanied Bodman, said that 90 percent of the Gulf oil platforms "will be capable of production by the end of the month." But she said damage to on-shore facilities is expected to keep oil production down.
Norton said that 58 percent of Gulf oil production remains shut down, as does 38 percent of the region's natural gas production.
"But there is more concern about gas because we don't have an international market" that the country could rely on for additional supplies as it does with oil, she said.
Last week, the Energy Information Administration estimated that natural gas prices would soar this winter because of the hurricane, including increases as much as 71 percent in parts of the Midwest.
Bodman and Norton were to visit the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve facility near Baton Rouge. The government is already supplying oil to some refineries from the reserve on a loan basis.
Later the two Cabinet secretaries were to tour an Exxon Mobile refinery near Baton Rouge that escaped damage from the hurricane but had to scale back production because of the shortage of crude oil. The refinery has since resumed production using SPR supplies.
Bodman and Norton met with senior executives from two dozen energy companies Monday evening in Houston. The executives said they needed government help in arranging for housing for thousands of employees as they struggled to return the Gulf's oil and gas system to full operation, he said.
By: nelderand 14 Sep 2005, 08:42 AM EDT Msg. 26149 of 26150 Jump to msg. # waitin_nomore......... .20 in 6 mo......
I think I said a couple of weeks. Alright. Look the fundamentals are already there. One of these days someone is going to have accumulated enough stock and they will send it higher, but it will be a gapper, IMO. Everyone will, of course, attribute it to some news, or a delayed reaction, or whatever. That is how it works, but the truth is that this company has very strong fundamentals that investors should die for, IMO. Nothing is an absolute in life, but you just cannot get a better risk/ reward ration, IMO. That is the fundamental story.
As far as timing goes, I base that on the charts. We are putting in a nice inverse-angled-head-and-shoulders bottom. This bottom isn't only structurally like the bottom in GLG, NG, and HNR......it is almost identical. I happened to run into a post by Drill on the CALVF board a few months, ago, took one look at the chart, and that was it. I started buying at .014 and bought down to .011. I also have added at around .017 and .019. I am no fluke with charts, but recently a friend who spent over 10 years trading on the floor (as in spelled one of the best) told me he has a huge position, also. He comes at charts from a bit of different direction, but I don't see him miss very often.
Of course Ricky will question my charts, my friend, what CB tells people etc. I could not care less. I evaluate things on my own and when I am satisfied I make a decision. The potential for a gap higher is there for practically anytime in the near future. Hopefully the chart will look like HNR, but it is not as steeply angled. I'll take a cousin to GLG, though.
posted
heres the bottom line...you don't want AMEP to simply pop and run,even though many wil make money scalping it will fall just as quick.Right now its in a controlled state walking up at a decent rate level by level,this gives us all a much stronger investment.
BTW it should flirt with the 4's or higher today imo.
posted
heres a post by unitedcorp on HSM (although I don't believe this is the reason for the early interest.I believe the company is now being seen for what its true value will become soon.)
The reason that it is running this morning is in anticpation of the eia's oil report which is due out at 10:30 am (est). You can catch the report first live on CNBC. In my opinion, this news is going to work very well in our favor. Look to see some .04's by tomorrow.
posted
I hope many didn't fall for that short lived dip...did ya notice on the way down how they let the bid match the ask at each level? OH yeah...they want shares.
posted
You know a company is desperate when it starts putting out items in the public domain as a press release...or says, "the total market for our product is X and "if" we can only get 1% of it we'd all be rich". Oh please! This is a dog.
Posts: 32 | From: Denver, CO | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Tulsa paper says "Natural Gas Shortage Feared"....goes on to say that unlike oil which compensate from lower US output in gulf due to oil being an international market, natural gas is a domestic market.....i.e. can't compensate for shortage, which they said the gulf is 30% of the NG market.
posted
heres a post that should interest many since I spoke with Mr.Christopher last week and he told me directly he was going to deal with the Berlin issue and bring it to Mr.Bitters attention.I noticed the past two days the activity on the Berlin exchange has changed and it appears that short positions may be covering.
By: napolean32955 14 Sep 2005, 08:00 PM EDT Msg. 26356 of 26356 Jump to msg. # Joe Christopher responded to me that he has turned over our removal from the Berlin Exchange to Charles Bitters.
Have a nice evening gentlemen.
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- No Position; ST Rating- Hold; LT Rating- Hold)
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