posted
it is a strange relationship between GFCI and lyamec, the latest "shakeup" PR is actually the second very public grenade lobbed at jim dial. lyamec seem mainly to be "wheelgreasers on the libya front", as well as providing some cash (ie they bought 6M shares at .50 awhile back). GFCI was at .12 when lyamec released their latest public PR calling out dial, i'm sure that added to their peevedness. while GFCI deserved a chewing out imho for various reasons, i also think it should have been done behind closed doors, fwiw.
a little more light on the relationship may be shed by this PR from last june:
there are really any number of questions about GFCI, as i've tried to detail throughout this thread/mainly monologue on GFCI. absolutely no question, it is very risky, the risk-averse should avoid with a 10-foot pole. personally, somehow i am attracted to it though - swinford's little inventions strike a chord with me, libya has promise imho, and the jet motor is very intriguing (though also shrouded in mystery, like most things with GFCI).
i am in GFCI for a speculation for a small amount, holding long. i still find the risk/reward prospects appealing, personally. eh, what can i say. 99.9% of the time i'm the "board fuddy-duddy", GFCI is one of my rare "indulgences" away from my usual attempts at a "safe and sane" microcap basket.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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"a little more light on the relationship may be shed by this PR from last june"
I read that news. Rather odd. Those boys appear to be involved in childish bickering. Weird.
My guess is Lyamec owns a substantial amount of GFCI stock, enough to wield financial power. Clearly Lyamec holds a type of contractual advisory role.
Record date for the CTBG spin shares is May 1 coming up soon. Equally odd. They indicate a 1.89 spin for 1 GFCI share. CTBG traded today around .21 with a healthy million plus volume.
Rounding for ease, GFCI and CTBG are about equal value. Roughly 2 shares of CTBG for 1 share of GFCI of record. On May 1 your equity in GFCI will increase about 200 percent assuming per share values to be about what they are now.
"Too good to be true."
To be sure readers understand, an example.
You have 1,000 shares of GFCI at .28 per share for an equity value of $280 on the market.
May 1, they spin you 1890 shares of CTBG which is 1.89 CTBG share for 1 GFCI share. Assuming CTBG to be .21 per share, this is an equity value of $396.90 on the market.
Add your GFCI $280 and your CTBG $396 and now you have an equity value of $676 which which more than doubles your original equity.
A bit more real, should you have 10,000 shares of GFCI, multiple those numbers by 10 which yields a $6,760 gain from the May 1 spin.
you, too, read the spins as common stock, correct?
Given that, they have no idea of "the last date to buy," per NASD's inability to set ex-date without proper notification.
We agree on what they're apparently intending, ie nearly 2:1. 10 shares GFCI yields 18.9 shares CTBG.
Somewhere they must address fractions/round lots, even if only in instructions to TA...
May well be "good companies" (ie, not GLUVettes), but they're headed for a PR fiasco with these PRs...If they haven't given NASD 10 days' notice, yet, they'll be hard-pressed to do anything by May 1. Caveat: did see a "restricted share" divvie debacle get herded through earlier this a year (a Sandy Winnick deal, lol) in which NASD let late/misfiled/bad PR deal go through without ex-date. In effect, record date "becomes" ex-date and you go to T+3 ...
posted
Gluv play might be good if you are in it. It was fun (at least for me since I got money through ameritrade)not so much for others, Ameritrade gave out the money, made 1400 from 100 but hey blue u've held for long so if you make some bank on this one i'm happy for you. I wouldn't gamble it. If I was in the stock would have been a different case. Good luck blue
Posts: 510 | From: Dallas, TX | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
in addition to holding quite a bit of GFCI stock, lyamec is also a 15% partner on the $20M initial libya deal as well. no doubt though, they have a very odd relationship, bickering much like my own kids sometimes even.
i never believe "too good to be true", so i assume GFCI and CTBG will have to adjust prices post-split. i dunno - whole thing is pretty crazy though - i freely admit. just impossible to say how it will play out, so many questions. i dunno if the may 1 date will hold - could be that if they file CTBG financials a month from now, that the may 1 date will become meaningless and the true date will be june 1. just - absolutey - dunno, shrouded in confusion.
like i said - it's a very non-blue stock; i'm a career bunt single hitter who is taking a rare swing at the fences, what can i say. odds are low, no doubt; i went in with a small speculative stake, willing to accept a 100% loss of principal. but - if it pays out, reward mighty interesting.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Yes, Tex, I read the spins as common stock.
* sticks out her tongue at VG *
Ameritrade, blah! E*Turd gave me 100 shares of MAMG worth 0.00 per share! Woe is me! I lost $250 on this pair of GLUVs.
However, we were trying to short squeeze...
Blue, Tex, I am not sure what to make of this GFCI spinoff. After the GLUV comedy, I do not trust any spinoff deal. Tex is right. GLUV taught us a spinoff can end totally FUBAR.
If those CTBG shares are restricted, this is not worth diddly-squat. I already have tons of "worthless" restricted stocks cluttering up my screen display, which I cannot get rid of. Tried to convince E*Turd to return those worthless shares to various companies, with a note reading, "F-word You" but E*Turd said no.
Only way to rid yourself of worthless restricted is to request paper certificates to remove them from your account; expensive toilet paper.
I am plan to contact GFCI to ask if those CTBG shares are common or restricted.
i'd try to analyze it, but - eh, it's friday, i need a beer, and it probably wouldn't do much good anyway.
short summary is: usual circus/usual delays, and GFCI in theory is now ex-div (although will be debated ad nauseum for the next 6 weeks on any GFCI board i'm sure).
not much to say - i'm still holding my small stake and will continue to do so. call me an idiot but i still like risk/reward on this one and think it will eventually have it's day, despite the incompetence of management to handle anything relating to filings or paperwork.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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i don't even know what to say. GFCI basically hit rock bottom today: .10 a share.
after hours, 7pm, this PR comes out: $2.25/share offer, supposedly.
$2.25.
shakes head.
like most Grifco PR's: very poorly worded, and brings up at least as many questions as it answers. clearly the PR was put out by lyamec and not GFCI.
lyamec has "reached an agreement with Grifco to move on the $2.25 per share offer".
don't even know what to say, still shaking my head. i'm certainly hopeful that it's true, as i own a speculation in GFCI. but - of course, who really knows.
does this mean trading is halted on monday morning? no mention, i have to assume it's not.
all i know for sure is: monday is going to be a *very* interesting day for GFCI.
Lyamec in Agreement With Grifco on $2.25 Per Share Offer LONDON, July 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Lyamec announces that it has reached an agreement with Grifco (Pink Sheets: GFCI) to move on the USD $2.25 per share offer: 'We look forward to receiving fully executed documents in the upcoming days, and look forward to move to closing.' Lyamec states acquisition initiatives on the 5 year outlined USD $76.5 Million GPC approved Libya facility entails an additional premium of USD $28 Million to be paid directly to Lyamec. In a statement by Interim CEO RG Raymond, 'Clearly, it would be an unwise decision on anyone's part to perceive that any offering to acquire a majority stake of Grifco at this stage will lead to leveraging their position on the Libya facility without our approval, regardless of Grifco's current assets and or commercialized tools and products. Notwithstanding this, Grifco is now to resume consolidating its assets for closing.'
The Global Oil Tools Libya facility in Misurata is strategically located to provide ready access to critical key distribution points from which Global can deliver tools to regional customers on a just-in-time basis. Global's advantage in North Africa is the ability to provide a localized, fully integrated development, manufacturing and shipping facility over competitors shipping tools from distant distribution centers.
About The Lyamec Group
The Lyamec Group (www.lyamec.com) was established in 1999, to fulfill the existing and expanding demand for U.S.-made products. The Lyamec Group provides vital assistance in laying unique and integrated platforms with cross-border assets to further streamlining efficient and effective opportunities and solutions.
Global Oil Tools (Pink Sheets: GFCI) is ISO 9001 and A.P.I. Spec. 14A certified and Quality Assurance Program conforms to all specifications set forth in ISO 9001 (ANSI/ASQC Q91) and A.P.I. Spec. 14A. Global has strict quality control standards, starting with the purchase of raw materials, through the manufacturing process, the inspection process, and the shipping process. Global maintains complete traceability on every product manufactured.
This release was issued on behalf of the above organization by Send2Press(R), a unit of Neotrope(R). http://www.Send2Press.com
posted
imho it's wise to never say "i'm sure" in the markets, particularly with GFCI and particularly when the PR is murky.
that caveat aside though: i have to admit that i've been searching my bitty memory banks to try to remember a PR as shocking as this one, and - i can't think of one.
the price per share number bandied about in the PR is a factor of 20.45 - TWENTY POINT FOUR FIVE - over the closing price today of eleven cents. i know buyouts have been bandied about in PR's by various companies all the time, but - i can't ever remember one that ever approached this factor of 20 premium before.
to me, the most memorable PR i can think of over the last few years in the market is RVMO's PR that had the very first words "If the check is good" right in the subject. of course, that one was notable mainly for being the funniest and most ludicrous PR released in the last year by any company, imho.
this one by GFCI though, i'll admit that it left me stunned. no idea how it will play out, but - can't ever remember my jaw downright hitting the floor when reading a PR before, like it did with this one. nearest i can think of is that WNMI one years ago when they first signed paris hilton, and it became a 10-bagger within 2 days (though of course since became a 10-bagger and more in reverse, heh). that was fun, even bob frey got in on the action as i recall.
can anyone else link me to a PR this jawdropping over the last year, by any company? i'm curious actually, i'm sure i missed some fascinating ones. i always thought it'd be interesting to have some kind of "top 10 PR's on the OTC and pinks of the last year" list.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Does this mean the Coil Tubing Dividend is not going to go through? This news caught me a little off guard.
I have been sitting on gfci for a while. I never thought it would get down to 0.11/share and now this news!?! Not that I'm complaining ;-)
Posts: 9 | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
no idea re: CTBG divvy - not surprisingly, no mention of it either way in the PR.
funniest post about this PR was on RB, i got quite a chuckle out of this quote:
"I take back what I said, Dial is a genius. I love him. If he were not so fat, I would probably do him"
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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Be sure I will be watching this one before market on Monday. I would expect an extreme gap up before market open. This will verify, at least, a possible run, maybe a day trade.
posted
no doubt, this PR raises a whole lot of questions. since i'm a pro/con kind of guy, breaking it down:
*** Con
- the PR is issued by lyamec, and lyamec alone; not jointly by GFCI and Lyamec as some other PR's have been. there is no quote by dial, it's unilateral. is dial and crew on board with this buyout, or is this lyamec "bullying" GFCI and/or some kind of staging for a powerplay?
- (related to first point): there is the strange warning/shot across the bow by lyamec and the $28M mention:
"Clearly, it would be an unwise decision on anyone's part to perceive that any offering to acquire a majority stake of Grifco at this stage will lead to leveraging their position on the Libya facility without our approval, regardless of Grifco's current assets and or commercialized tools and products."
- PR doesn't read as a "done deal": ie there is no talk of the company doing the buyout, no "trading will be halted before open monday" note. the quote from the PR is: "Lyamec announces that it has reached an agreement with Grifco to move on the USD $2.25 per share offer". it would of course be much better if it read "Grifco and Lyamec have agreed to close on the $2.25/sh offer from xxx-company and trading will be halted before open monday".
- it strains credulity to beleieve the 20.45x premium to closing price: ie, your "something ain't right", purl.
*** Pro:
- there is some specific wording in the PR that *could* be interpreted as the deal being pretty close to done. ie -
"...move on the USD $2.25 per share offer: "We look forward to receiving fully executed documents in the upcoming days, and look forward to move to closing." ".
they say *the* $2.25 per share offer, interestingly. the PR basically concludes with "Grifco is now to resume consolidating its assets for closing". Interesting word choice - "resume", rather than "start". resume is defined at dictionary dot com as "To begin again or continue after interruption" - there is a clear "again" meaning ot the word, implying that they had begun the consolidation of assets/closeup before, then had an interruption, and are now to start again. interesting, though admittedly perhaps meaningless.
- i've posted in several places that part of why i'm willing to take a speculation in GFCI is because of the whole libya aspect, i do see the potential as being huge there and lyamec as being in a good position. perhaps it's jim dial's once in a lifetime lucky day and a large premium could be paid for GFCI mainly in part due to the "inroads" GFCI/lyamec offer into libya and their positioning. ie, the "right place at the right time" effect i've mentioned as a potential plus in other GFCI posts.
--
in summary, just too hard to say: too murky. tossing out the general info stuff, there are exactly 5 sentences in the PR about the buyout. just not enough info to draw 100% conclusions, and murkily worded at that.
will be interesting to see if there is another PR on monday, perhaps issued by dial, clarifying anything on this buyout.
i hate to compare GFCI to NDOL, because i've made it clear that i'm not a fan of NDOL, whereas i've been willing to take a small speculation in GFCI. but - NDOL is of interest to compare in the case of this buyout offer, in trying to guess the trading patterns of GFCI next week. NDOL started mentioning their buyout stuff in early april and then on may 8 bandied about the $2.17/sh buyout number. it ran from similar lows as GFCI up to $1.50 before falling back down, or 69% of the purported buyout price, which would be $1.55 in GFCI's case. does this mean GFCI might go to 1.55 this week? eh, i doubt it, but - who knows. really, neither .20 nor 1.50 would surprise me, though i'd be surprised if GFCI traded much below .20 on monday.
the question for traders is "what % of the purported buyout price am i willing to buy GFCI for?", in factoring in risk/credibility/all that. clearly it won't be close to 100%, but then again i'd doubt that it will stay at the current 4.89% either. what's "reasonable"? 10%? 20%? 30%? 20% would be exactly .45. really, i have no idea what will happen with GFCI next week, except that it's going to be a rollercoaster and danged fascinating to watch.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
I agree.....caution is the word here and may be a great day trade, but def need the clarifying PR of detials.....who is the buyer? are they officially closing a deal? etc etc
will be fun to watch....in at .115 with 40k, so I can afford to kick back and just see if the big bucks come in on this one.risk/reward for me is excellent
-------------------- GSUS - Eternal 100 Bagger! HCPC - my favorite potential into December Posts: 525 | From: nashville | Registered: Jun 2005
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posted
anyone want to venture a guess as to where GFCI goes tomorrow morning? sure is gonna be interesting.
nearly all of my stocks are boring and fuddyduddyish (at least for this board), GFCI is my primary pure speculation. so i'm a lot more familiar with thinly-traded slow-movers, than i am with wilder pinkies like GFCI.
purl, glass, anyone else want to venture a guess as to how high this might go tomorrow? there's a poll over on ihub and the guesses pretty much run the gamut:
quote:Originally posted by Dustoff101: Blue, casino bet for me.......$350.00 Lose $100.00 out Win $ 100.00 out
Lowers the stress level that way...lol
------------------------------------------------- Please ignore this post...
Newbe's follow the pro's on this one, I know I am. Much more to this play than a simple Casino bet attitude..
Will be moving money around so as to maximize potential profit taking....I'll get outa the way now, and let the Pro's do their DD.
Posts: 10729 | From: oregon | Registered: Feb 2005
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today was a good example of how it's REAL tough to try to mix a demanding regular job with dabbling in the market. i had a big webex "meeting" this morning (kind of like netmeeting where you can share files etc) with guys from kiev, austria, and germany that ran from 9-11am. so i was both on the phone and on this webex-browser thing, and other people can "force their desktop" onto yours to show you schematics and spreadsheets and the like.
so here i was trying to buy big chunks of GFCI at the open while also on my desk phone and also at times my cellphone at the same time, while trying to do this damned webex meeting thing and having people force their desktop onto mine right as i was hitting either the buy or sell button or trying to watch the ticker. auuuughhh!! then as soon as the danged webex meeting was done i had to immediately drive off and go to a meeting offsite, so actually had no PC access all afternoons. all i could do was track it on my sprint-pcs cellphone, which was also amusing in and of itself. i pretended i had to go to the can just so i could sit there for awhile in stall #2 with my cellphone and check on the GFCI price quote repeatedly for 10 minutes, heh. talk about a poor man's "ticker!"
anyway, was a crazy but fun day. i'm a small-time stock player with most of my assets still in mutual funds and also a hedger/chicken, so was actually a first today for me making 5-figure profit on one stock in a single day.
am still holding a decent chunk of GFCI. i admit it's risky and haven't been shy about expressing my feelings on the cons, as well as the pros of Grifco. but - it's all about risk/reward. i'm boring and fuddyduddyish with most of my picks, i'm willing to let at least a portion ride long with GFCI and see how it plays out. as i've said in this and various other GFCI threads - despite some of my reservations, i still see promise in the libya aspect. we'll see how it plays out
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: Weatherbill, I hope this one flies to $2.00 per share for you! That would be great!
You are a pretty decent chap. You deserve a reward.
Purl Gurl
How bout me?
-------------------- Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results Posts: 491 | Registered: Jun 2006
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