posted
anyone following Grifco? an "oil services" company i guess you'd call it, selling stuff with names like the "Jet Motor" and "Silver Hawg" that generally make drilling more efficient. the PR today is a good example of what they do:
been in and out playing swings; had a small position and added more at the open today, probably against my better judgement. it's not normally my kind of stock, i rarely touch pink sheets (as glass knows, heh), but - this one i find interesting for some reason, and am actually contemplating holding long. had my finger on the sell button at .50 today but changed my mind and hit cancel instead.
i'm not quite sure what to think of GFCI, seems to be a fair amount of pros and cons.
PROS:
* if they're legit, they're quite likely worth much more than .50. earned .13/sh the first 6 months, and forward guidance is .20-.23 the last 6 months, as per this PR:
so .30+ earnings seems a good bet for the year, and that was back in may before some of these orders rolled in.
* they're certainly in a good position at least at the moment, with oil hitting 65: make money selling things that make drilling more efficient
* the president Dial has been mentioned as saying that they want to move to a larger exchange, and will start filing in late september. i can't verify this though, have never called him up on the phone.
* at least semidiversified, a lot of acquisitions
* pretty eye-catching numbers in the PR today. by my math, $2M per jetmotor per month rental fee works out to be almost $100M in revs if they can crank out 200 of these babies over the next few years.
CONS:
* on the pink sheets, i generally hate pinkies. no way to know if the share count has increased, or if their numbers are accurate.
* they seem to be somewhat untrusted, which i can understand - i'm generally a skeptic. they seem to trade in a fear/greed cycle - it moves up a bit and gets momentum as people think "hey these guys are for real, other people are buying, i'm going to buy too". then it dips a little and it snowballs, as people panic-sell. weird.
* i'm not clear on just how much *profit* they can get out of the revenue stream from these jet motors, and if they can really sell all they are talking about producing.
* at least semidiversified, a lot of acquisitions. i list this as both a pro and a con because it's unclear to me how much profit and/or loss is attributable to each acquisition.
* i'm a science-geek guy but not really familiar with terms like "coil tubing" and their uses in drilling. so it's hard for me to personally gauge the validity of their increased efficiency claims.
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Anyone else familiar with/following these guys? I'm not making a buy recommendation btw, it strikes me as risky and mainly of interest for a small investment, i only own 5k shares. also, i haven't finished fully researching them yet. just kind of bouncing some ideas out about GFCI to see if anyone has input to add, either pro or con. thoughts - Purl, anyone?
GFCI is definitely a volatile and twitchy one, yearly range is all over the map, was .14 not that long ago.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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especially at RB, you have to take everything with a grain of salt, but - very interesting nonetheless.
as a side note, i am always impressed when people go and visit a company site. i've called several companies, had lengthy chats, even been hung up on and cheesed a few IR people off by not being shy about expressing my opinions. but i've still never gone to visit a company. was hoping to visit EYDY on my next visit to Torrance but so far haven't had to go there on business for awhile, maybe this fall. ALMI and JMIH, those are two i'd like to visit as well, maybe someday.
still liking GFCI, even though i admit it's risky and not typically my kind of stock.
almost seems out of whack though - per this report it only costs $1880 to produce a jet motor, but they can rent it for $5000 a day. that is one helluva margin, if true. the optimistic viewpoint would be that it's the beauty of patent protection. the more pessimistic viewpoint would be that customers will be pissed to pay almost 3x as much as a device costs to build, just to rent it for a day. the skeptical viewpoint is that it's "too good to be true", these massive margins.
also of note in this is another thing i should have listed in the "pro" list above: very small float, only 4.7M shares. that's only a couple million bucks, for a company throwing around (as yet unproven, mind you) mighty teeny revenue, profit, and forward P/E numbers. i like low-floaters, takes very little to move them.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
This company looks pretty good. I like the charts. Say, have you heard from Purl Gurl at all? She seems to have left the building? Vacation maybe?
-------------------- Life only has so many choices, choose wisely. Posts: 97 | From: California | Registered: Apr 2005
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rose to .60 briefly but then fell back to the upper .40's, perhaps in part due to the pullback in oil. still holding, and might accumulate some more on a dip. GFCI is so twitchy, hard to tell: might drop back to the .30's again, or might sit at .50 range for awhile pending more jet motor etc news. dunno, should be interesting...
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
just added a little more at .40. is always interesting, trying to decide when to buy a stock that's currently downtrending. i only added 1/3 of the position i wanted, mainly on the reasoning that my guess is that .40 support might hold and that GFCI is actually currently trading *lower* than where it was before the (imho) fairly substantial news of the jet motor shipments. i'm surprised it's this low. but, i'm too chicken to add a lot at this point, only 1/3. GFCI is historically all over the map, which also makes trying to decide on buy points quite a bit tougher too. neither a .30 nor a .50 close a few days out from now would surprise me, honestly.
any chart gurus out there have any opinion on good buy points for GFCI? i go on pretty much purely fundamentals and gut, i admit.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
took a few bounces off .40 early in the week, a .395 even squeaked through, but then a decent bounce back to .46x.47 spread now.
i actually take it as a decent sign that support held at .40 and it bounced back up, at least temporarily. GFCI awhile ago would have fallen through the .40 without much trouble during the "fear" part of GFCI's usual fear/greed alternation cycle. am hoping the resistance at .40 actually holding this time was a good sign, we'll see.
mainly i'm only interested in where GFCI stands for example 3-4 months out from now, but - still interesting to me to study it's bounces, if only for trying to pick buy points.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
after a mild detour through the greed sentiment cycle, touching .47 - back to the fear part of the cycle at .41 with the bid at .39. will be watching this one closely today, hoping for a panic slide into the .30's to add another 1/3 of the additional GFCI shares i'd like to own. will be interesting to see if GFCI can pass this next test of the .40 support level and stabilize or bounce again, not sure. my completely baseless guess is that it might touch .38, we'll see.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
watching this one very closely these days for an opportunity to jump on the 2nd 1/3 of the shares i want to buy. has dipped a little lower than i thought it would (.37), not sure when it might find a bounce point. a mighty risky and volatile stock, at least imho.
from trolling around for info, seems like the recent dip is caused primarily by many shareholders getting their undie-pants all abunch over the issuing of 100k shares towards some kind of joint venture in china with some other pink sheet company. is unclear to me if the deal even went through, GFCI has issued no PR about it. strikes me as perhaps an overreaction - i hate dilution as much as the next guy, but 100k shares is really not that much. it represents perhaps an increase of 2% of the float.
at the moment am taking a "wait and see" attitude before going in on the second 1/3 am looking to buy - stock is slowly downdrifting, so i figure might as well watch on the sidelines for awhile and see how low it wants to drift.
the thing that still strikes me as strange is: GFCI is trading *lower* than it was before the last 2-3 very positive (imho) PR's about the jet motor and lyamec buying in. especially with oil in the upper $60's - seems unusual to me.
i think also that people are waiting for more news and PR's about the jet motors: how they are performing in the field, specifics about orders, all that. i'll admit that i'm a little cautious with GFCI because the margins almost seem too good to be true. GFCI is by far the riskiest stock i've ever bought, could very well drop back to .20 again if news is delayed or bad. but - still, grifco intrigues me enough that i want to have a position in it.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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mainly talking about how GFCI's Louisiana buildings were unaffected by Katrina. they also snuck in mention too though that the Houma and Scott facilities pull in an impressive $9-12M a year in revs.
GFCI then proceeded to fade back to a .38 close, however - couldn't sustain.
was tempted by .35 yesterday, but - the GFCI natives seem restless enough that i'm going to wait awhile before adding any more and see if GFCI might take a dip towards the low .30's and perhaps even upper .20's. would be a little surprising to me if it dipped this low, that's quite a bit lower than where GFCI stood *before* releasing the lyamec and jet motor PR's. but - the slow downdrift and inability to hold .40 yesterday make me think that some more downward dright might be in store for grifco. we'll see.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: the slow downdrift and inability to hold .40 yesterday make me think that some more downward dright might be in store for grifco.
ha haha - figures, closed up, at .42: just to spite me for mentioning that i thought had some more downdrift coming!
maybe i should post that i feel it will close *up* at .50 today, just to guarantee that it'll drop to .31 so i can buy a decent-sized chunk.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
And right after u do that blue also say that it is going to drop to .20 so that it spikes upto .70 LOL I haven't bought any but have been watching it since it was at .55 I'm still trying to find more info on it.
Posts: 510 | From: Dallas, TX | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
it is really pretty interesting, perusing the lyamec website. lyamec has invested/partnered in a major way with GFCI: helping them buy Global Tool, "introducing: them in libya with their libyan connections and "Libyan Business Council", and finally buying 6M shares of GFCI at .50/share.
lyamec has a lot of "partners", who appear to go to lyamec for their libyan connections and facility. as they put it way back in a 7/20/04 PR:
"The Lyamec Group was established in 1999, to fulfill the existing and expanding demand for U.S. made products for specific Libyan market segments as outlined by President Clinton on April 28, 1999. Corporate & Private clients benefit from a myriad of angles relating to business laws and regulations, communication, concept development, contract negotiations, distribution, marketing, sourcing, strategy, and total project management."
they appear to be libyan "wheel-greasers". other clients are corel, touch point, fujitsu, lukoil, even ford.
it appears to me that right around now, GFCI CEO dial and the lyamec ceo are on a little trip:
"We are buying into Grifco at this stage because of our unflagging commitment to Grifco," said Lyamec CEO R.G. Raymond in a prepared statement. "We are onboard with Jim Dial for the long term. Undeniably we share the same plans and vision as he does. With the strong demand for Grifco's new products and the overwhelming representation requests from Libya and Qatar, we see great revenue potential in our target market area. Jim Dial and I will be joining our friends, partners, and dignitaries in Libya, Qatar, on a 12 day visit, with additional stops in the United Kingdom, and Italy to lay down points of access for regional distribution management."
still trying to figure out exactly how lyamec greases wheels, but - an interesting snippet from their 6/9/04 PR:
"As already approved by Libya's Foreign Investment authorities, immediate benefits for Grifco International would include: full exemptions from custom duties, no taxation on Grifco's income for up to 8 years, and a competitive manufacturing and distribution edge in the region. An already allocated 15% equity participation incentive to local Libyan government agencies, and distribution rights to other markets, indicated that this will be an extremely positive and successful opportunity that shareholders will appreciate."
is interesting to see that there was a major catfight between dial and lyamec back in june. check out these scathing quotes from the 6/3/04 PR:
>>>>>
With regards to the already expired agreement between Grifco International (OTC: GFCI.PK) and Global Oil Tools, Inc and further with Grifco's CEO, Jim Dial's oddly timed retraction of compliance with the preset terms of engagement already agreed to with The Lyamec Corporation; Lyamec has now solidified its position with Global Oil Tool's expansion into Libya. The partnership between the Lyamec Corporation and Global Oil Tools on the manufacturing and distribution rights for Africa, the Middle East and Azerbaijan including the 24,000 sq ft. facility staged in Libya, has been fully cleared to move on without any further delay from Grifco. The agreement brings a solid opportunity to access a pool of $400 Million USD annually in oil tool supply orders that the region represents in this partnership. The agreement between Global and Lyamec has now made it next to impossible for Grifco to come back for Global, now or in the future without a heavy premium that would ultimately cost the company and or its investors substantially.
In reply to Jim Dial's statement on the furtherance of an acquisition of Global Oil Tools to The Lyamec Corporation, that Grifco will still continue to gather momentum in bringing a buyout of Global until it is successful; a Lyamec spokesman addressed this point in a private conference with its participants by saying, " I am truly amazed that Jim Dial has lost such an opportunity, and what is more plausible, is that he added the weight of millions if not in the tens of millions on the cost to his company to achieve such a goal. It was not a logical decision to anyone here, and would probably and ultimately lead to quite a few upset investors". He went on to add," We are also looking further into legal ramifications by Jim Dial's performance on this issue, going as far back as mid April, 2005 that we are now looking into."
<<<<
then, 6 days later, they kiss and make up:
>>>>>
The Lyamec Corporation, an investment related franchise distribution and merchandising agreement corporation, today announced that in an emergency session called by The Lyamec Corporation, Global Oil Tools, and Grifco International (OTC Pink Sheets: GFCI), the Lyamec Corporation agreed to give Grifco International an additional 30 day exclusive option to buy Global Oil Tools. Surprisingly, the terms of the new deal are better than those previously agreed to by Grifco International and Global Oil Tools. The no-cost option would allow Grifco International to buy Global Oil Tools under the newly developed manufacturing and distribution center deal in Libya, facilitated by The Lyamec Corporation. Lyamec's ongoing overall project development draft agreement and market development and project management terms includes a $20 million USD parts and tools order as part of the overall package on Global.
"This should fit into the company's overall portfolio and will definitely add to their internal growth as well as shareholder returns," said R. Raymond, President of Lyamec Corporation. "I never really had the pleasure to meet face to face with CEO Jim Dial. I was originally introduced to Jim through other parties who contributed to some tension in our earlier negotiations. Now that I know Jim better, I truly admire and have great respect for him. Under the circumstances, I wish we had gotten to know each other much earlier and under better circumstances."
"Sometimes it has to get worse for it to get better," said W.J. Barnhill, President of Global Oil Tools. "I am very happy with what's on the table and I believe that Ray and Jim had to get to know each other better, and they did. I believe the sincerity that I saw between these two men fortified a win/win position for all concerned. In this particular instance I must say, it really did take three to tango."
<<<<<<
really pretty amusing and interesting stuff.
like i said - GFCI is not normally a stock that would be in my interest pool, but - i admit that i find them fascinating and i can't resist their promise, despite their high risk. a lot going on - not just the jet motors, but also the whole libyan/lyamec stuff, as well as global tools and the rest of their "core" oil-tool business. that's a lot of avenues: some may pan out well, some what fizzle, just hard to say at this point.
i do admit that i like the fact that lyamec must be well-aware of GFCI's inner workings, and liked GFCI enough to want in for $3M in GFCI stock.
purl, anyone else - would be interested to hear any input on GFCI, good *OR* bad; mainly am just blabbering on to myself here like usual, heh!
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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News for 'GFCI' - (Grifco Completes Phase One of 'Global Oil Tools Libya')
HOUSTON, TX, Sep 07, 2005 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Grifco International (OTC: GFCI) announces it has received final "approved to form 'Global Oil Tools Libya' certification." GFCI now has final approval to export technology, conduct operations, and establish a manufacturing facility in Libya.
In a statement by CEO Jim Dial, "Our approved to form package has been authenticated and sealed by the U.S. Department of State (Document 05028356-13). Concurrently, the finalized Global Oil Tools Libya has also been certified by Libya's Foreign Affairs Department in Washington, D.C."
"We are pleased with the expedient processing of the requirements by Lyamec & Associates. We look to immediately move forward on expanding our market reach through Lyamec by reviewing and finalizing applications on Tunis, Qatar, Jabal Ali, and Morocco and to establishing corresponding logistic and point of sale offices in the North African coast," added Dial. "Libya's manufacturing facility is the thread which will weave a framework to build and distribute products throughout the region. Eventually, all of GFCI's technology, including the product lines of Grifco, Global Oil Tools, the Silver Hawg, and Coil Tubing Technology (CTT), makers of the Jet Motor and Jet Nozzle, will be working in the fields throughout Africa and the Middle East."
Grifco International is a leading provider of oil and gas services equipment, specializing in the conception, architecture, and development of tools for the coil tubing, wire line, and snubbing industry throughout the United States, China, Mexico, South America, the Middle East and Africa. Grifco's patented products are known and used throughout the world. In addition to our patented tools, Grifco holds and owns design rights and manufacturing facilities for producing more than 6000 products for the oil and gas industry with more than 150 clients, boasting the biggest names in the business, including Halliburton, Exxon, and Schlumberger. Please visit www.grifco.orgPosts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
seems like buying and selling pressures have basically equalized at .40: the swings have dampened out and for now a pretty tight .38-.42 trading range prevails. a lot of optimism based on grifco's big potential, but also a lot of nervousness about their pink sheet status and uncertainty over things like uncertainty of exact share count and lack of SarbOx-compliant audited financials.
imho i think it likely that news or an eventual lack of news is going to be what pushes it either way of out of this range. could move up based on jet motor etc updates, but if they dawdle too long on news (particularly on the updates to finally getting on the OTC and off the pinks) then my guess is we'd see a gradual pps erosion.
for now still taking a "wait and see" attidude: am in for my modest amount, but would take a dip to .35 or lower for me to add more.
looks to me like GFCI has updated their website recently, still slightly under construction: most of it works but a few links still don't.
reaction seems mixed on the libya stuff: some see it as a positive with huge potential business, some see it as a negative and want grifco to focus on their own backyard first before venturing too far.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
haha ha, figures - as soon as i type that yesterday, starts to show signs of moving up to a new trading range: .43x.44 with a few .45's slipping through today. still way too early to tell much of anything though, GFCI's eventual rise or fall will depend on things like jet motor numbers and audited financials. we'll see.
quote:Originally posted by blue_in_MI: seems like buying and selling pressures have basically equalized at .40: the swings have dampened out and for now a pretty tight .38-.42 trading range prevails.
posted
eh crap, .47 x .48. only have a small 5k shares, wanted 10k, so was actually rooting for it to go back down to .35. ah well - maybe some chances on future dips.
kind of strange - 2 of my larger holdings, GFCI and ETLT - moving up sharply on zero news today, just suddenly and out of the blue.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
interesting, thanks RY. maybe will regret not selling into this spike, but - am going to hold. i still think GFCI could pop to $1+ over the next few months *if* (and i admit that's no small if) they can get their financials done and issue a few more jet motor etc updates, we'll see.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
guess i'm not getting my other cheap shares, ah well!
will be interesting to see how this plays out in the absence of news, dunno if can sustain - we'll see.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
couldn't sustain, pullback to .45. rebelyell, perhaps you were right that the minijump the last few days was due to a sudden interest by momentum-yahoos from other boards, thus the sudden rise and pullback.
i'm still "neutral" on what i want GFCI to do - only have a small portion, watching and waiting for now to see on buying more. i really like their chances to have a good run at some point during the remainder of 2005, but - my guess is that they may also be late getting their financials out and that it might have some more attractive dips to get in on. dunno, such a "fear and greed cycle" stock, hard to get a handle on. half-in and still watching closely, we'll see.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
From a poster (islandecho)on another board who has been running this. Take it FWIW.
"Right now i would buy more of this if you can. My other play i am still finding something things out on and it may be a monday play.
As for GFCI, I had it verifeid yesterday 100% (dont ask how lol) that they will be reporting financials very soon and that for the year ending June 30th they will be reporting earnings of .38. The stock is trading at .45 lol. It should be at least $4 with those kind of earnings with a simple PE of 10.
Buy all you can of this now with these prices. This is about as sure as it gets guys, and its about to go."
Posts: 46 | Registered: Jun 2005
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posted
ha ha haha, well ain't that 10 lbs of sh!t in a 5-lb bucket!! amazing, "don't ask how lol", what a load, do people really *believe* this crap?
btw, i am not criticizing YOU, RebelYell, i full realize that you're posting those comments "FWIW", and that they're not your own words or anything. and actually i appreciate you posting here and helping give me a sense of the "pulse" of other boards comments on GFCI, particularly because i never visit boards such as "Niz's billionaire boyz club" or whatever, and never will.
i think probably .38/sh profit is unachievable for the past year, honestly. i'm very conservative, and hoping for .25/sh for the last year. for one, they had to issue shares to complete all of their acquisitions like Global Oil Tools, so the share count is perhaps 25% larger than it was back in june when grifco issued guidance, likely around 31M. to my knowledge though, the *float* is still under 5M shares, part of why i'm so intrigued by GFCI. only $2M in the float, that is a teeny number. also, recall that nearly all jet motor revs and profit may well not show up much yet if they file a Q for the period ending july 30 2005.
personally i'm being conservative and thinking that the financials won't be released for at least another month, perhaps even not until early november.
while i'm thinking mid-.20's for 2005, i can't help but be optimistic about GFCI's earnings prospects for 2006. looking at in particular those jet motor numbers, those are some intriguing numbers, with quite a large profit *potential*. again, it has to pan out, and i still view GFCI as risky, but - in my mind it does have huge *potential*.
as a side note, is interesting the wide interest in GFCI among disparate investing stock "personalities". it seems to have a following in the RB and other junky boards, but - also i know several relatively conservative people whose opinion i respect who are also vested in GFCI and are cautiously hopeful, as i am. *IF* GFCI can get all their ducks in a row in terms of filing and jet motor etc business, and that is a big if, then - the stock will do quite well in the long run regardless of blips caused by Niz Boyz Club or whatever junky momo board.
still holding my small number of shares for now, and looking to add on future dips. we'll see.
if you ever have time - would be really curious to hear any thoughts you might have on GFCI, Purl.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
one other comment on the general "internet board perception" of GFCI - imho, a surprising % of people seem to question whether or not GFCI is even "for real". this uncertainty is "priced in" to GFCI, and imho part of why it's so cheap now compared to earnings and earnings potential.
i can of course understand that especially with pink sheet stocks (which i rarely am in), more uncertainty *has* to be "priced in". for one, i could not guarantee the share count or go and look up the audited earnings for last Q. GFCI fully *deserves* to have those uncertainties priced in, and thus be cheaper than if it were fully reporting and all that. no question about it.
but - at least through my DD, i am convinced that GFCI is a real company, with real products, real customers, real revenues, all that. a surprising % of people seem though that it's questionable whether or not say the "silver hawg" even exists. imho the market may be overly pricing in these uncertainties.
if you go to www.grifco.org, they have a lot of interesting descriptions of their products, and a 192-page product catalog with substantial detail on products. i'm skeptical and cautious as hell by nature, maybe the most boring and cautious investor on this board. but - i just don't think an entire one hundred and ninety two page catalog with detailed descriptions and dialogs of operating principles is "made up" out of the blue. i also doubt lyamec would fork over big cash for 6 million shares of grifco if they thought the company was a "fake", particularly seeing as how they are intimately familiar with grifco's inner workings.
like i said all along, i view GFCI as having *significant* risks, and it's not usually the type of stock i'm interested in, starting with it's pink sheet status. i've tried to be as open as possible about considering risks, problems, and downsides to GFCI. but, at least imho, it strikes me that at least *some* risks with grifco *may* be overstated or overly priced in. i guess time will tell.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
definitely back into the "fear" part of the cycle, not to mention impatience - scraping on .40 bottom support today. added a little at .40, have about half of the GFCI i want now - holding cash in reserve in the hopes of a panic slide.
people definitely getting impatient and fearful waiting on jet motor and getting-on-OTC news, not sure if .40 will hold. we'll see. probably also some people who bought on the run stirred up by whatever goofy momo board played GFCI panicked and sold when it couldn't sustain the run.
thing i still find odd: GFCI still trading *lower* than where it was before the last several positive (imho) PR's.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
hmm, at least a temporary switch away from the fear part of the cycle. odd trading day: was a very slow day, then out of nowhere the volume suddenly spiked up. a few big block buys, including a 160k share block, drove the price up to a .45x.47 close.
no idea if will trigger a new run or will pull back tomorrow, but - pretty interesting trading. that's no chump change to toss around, a 160k block is almost $70-large in one shot.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
disappointing last few days for GFCI, price dipped to .39 on heavy volume because a lot of people were expecting to see audited financials by the end of september. 2 years worth of audited financials are required along with the form 10, to apply for listing to a larger exchange and get off the danged pink sheets. obviously, the financials weren't released yesterday. thus the dip, as some people hit the panic button.
it is hard to tell for sure based on all of the various info around the 'net, much of it conflicting, but the most likely case seems that these were delayed due to the complexity of having to go back to the previous shell company financials as well (grifco, as many companies do, took over a shell company to avoid the high cost of creating a new public company). dunno what to say on the financials front - i have zero accounting background. i guess best case is that it would take another week, worst case is that they would have serious difficulties and could drag on for months. really i have no idea.
a boatload of up-in-arms GFCI shareholders appear to have flooded Grifco's IR company with calls yesterday about the financials, which resulted in Mike King of their IR firm releasing the following short statement:
“I visited Grifco in Spring, Texas ( the coil-tubing division )and found they are out of steel which is in short supply nation-wide. Their rented tools are safe and the suppliers should be up and running again by Monday. Grifco lost about $ 250,000 in income for the two-week down period as a result of the hurricanes. Unaudited Income for the full year ended June 30th, 2005 for Grifco ( excepting the Global Division ) is about $ 4.4 million on $14 million in sales. I don’t have the figures yet for the Global division.”
it's a little complicated and only gives a partial picture to try to analyze these numbers: they are for the period that runs up until june 30, 2005. grifco was a smaller company then: both in share count, and in size. global oil tools was acquired a week or two after 6/30, and the first batch of 50 jet motors didn't ship until late july (with the 2nd batch of 50 in the works). current share count appears to be about about 37M O/S, so $4.4M profit on 37M O/S would be about 12 cents a share profit for last year. based on the rough 20M O/S as of june 30 before adding global, .22/sh range - a little short of their guidance because no JM revs on it, but - still quite good.
that is of course a *trailing* earnings note, with GFCI i'm more interested in the *forward* earnings potential of the jet motor and other potential additions. the downside of the dilution required to add global oil tools is of course now they will add to future earnings. and the JM grifco has quite high hopes for: 100 motors would, if you believe their numbers, add $2M a week of very profitable revenue to grifco.
at this point, still hard to form a balanced opinion of GFCI. a lot of questions about finalizing financials, and it remains to be seen if all of thier irons in the fire will pan out. imho it should be viewed as a speculative investment.
i am staying in even though it's not normally my kind of stock (ie boring) because grifco is very promising imho, but - no doubt that there are risks involved: any number of things could go wrong. no doubt will be a very interesting next several months for GFCI, we'll see. i fully expect to see quite a bit of volatility in the stock price as the fear/greed cycle in investor perception continues as it has in the past.
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