I understand crude oil is only $35 per barrel in New Jersey. You folks are so lucky to not have to pay increasing costs for everything.
As you know, when the price of crude oil goes up, so does the price of literally everything.
Wages don't go up, however.
Here in California, crude oil is floating around $55 per barrel and gasoline will be $3.00 per gallon here and everywhere except New Jersey, by Summer. I will bet on that price.
Many claim, mostly republicans, our economy is fine. What I see is many sugar coating a pile of mule manure.
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Lucy stop it my side is SPLITTING! I can't take it! ROFLMAO. BTW if you are looking to make a buck check out DTMG, I'm over 150% in <3 weeks! On its way to $3. Shorts are trying to hold the price down while they cover but, its not happening! Only way out for them is to pay up or make a deal with the company which will pay us ligitimate stockholders a big fat dividend! Naked salling is coming to and end and they see the writing on the letters freezing their accounts! As far as a recession...I agree...when? Don't know and neither do they...when they get it down to a 1 month window let me know it won't take me 30 days to liquidate my positions... so I'm good!
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Glassman, those type of problems are happening across America.
California is fifteen-billion in the hole as a direct result of stock market manipulation. In our 2000 / 2001 / 2002 budget reports, produced by our state government, loss of revenue and tax base because of stock market problems is directly cited as the source of California's money woes.
Did muscle brain cure those problems as promised?
No.
As you know, I wrote over three-thousand letters to the news media, politicians, the white house, detailing SEC corruption, Wall Street corruption and stock market manipulation and how all of this is destroying our world economy.
Did any listen?
No.
As California falls into recession, so will the rest of America and most of the world. Our state sets the economic condition for almost all of our world's peoples.
Both investing strategies and trading strategies will have to be altered dramatically. As said, I have rolled a majority of our money over into real estate, which is the only known safe bet.
What we have experienced in the markets last year, so far this year, is nothing compared to what is coming in the future.
Worst of all, President Cheney has driven our country into literal bankruptcy, and has us in two wars with intent to start more wars.
Cheney / Bush, they are madmen.
Purl Gurl
Why is CLSI having trouble securing munipical contracts? Because cities are bankrupt!
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i agree that Bush/Cheney are not true conservatives. they have done a tremendous job of using social conservative issues to sell themselves to the masses.
Enron had both the Clinton whitehouse and the Bush whitehouse in it's pocket...
we've been sold out by both sides...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: Glassman, those type of problems are happening across America.
California is fifteen-billion in the hole as a direct result of stock market manipulation. In our 2000 / 2001 / 2002 budget reports, produced by our state government, loss of revenue and tax base because of stock market problems is directly cited as the source of California's money woes.
Did muscle brain cure those problems as promised?
No.
As you know, I wrote over three-thousand letters to the news media, politicians, the white house, detailing SEC corruption, Wall Street corruption and stock market manipulation and how all of this is destroying our world economy.
Did any listen?
No.
As California falls into recession, so will the rest of America and most of the world. Our state sets the economic condition for almost all of our world's peoples.
Both investing strategies and trading strategies will have to be altered dramatically. As said, I have rolled a majority of our money over into real estate, which is the only known safe bet.
What we have experienced in the markets last year, so far this year, is nothing compared to what is coming in the future.
Worst of all, President Cheney has driven our country into literal bankruptcy, and has us in two wars with intent to start more wars.
Cheney / Bush, they are madmen.
Purl Gurl
Why is CLSI having trouble securing munipical contracts? Because cities are bankrupt!
PuRl Gurl, Why don't you stop this NONSENSE this is a Stock site and not a Politician Site
posted
gmh, I have already advised you of this before and will advise you again. Simply ignore me.
Sharkone, we have a lot of rental income property.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to purchase rental income property in California and most western states. Same is true in many areas.
Real property value has been increasing at least thirty percent per year. In some areas, much more.
An example, we paid $162,500 cash for a house to rent out, two years back. Recently, homes on either side of that house, sold for $300,000 instantly. We have "almost" doubled our equity value.
Downside is real property prices are so high, it is difficult to generate that much cash to buy. We never finance, always cash. So now it is very difficult to find "affordable" rental homes to buy.
Strategy now is we are rolling over stock profits into rental home improvement, this is, brick work, landscaping, new stucco, roofs, paint, whatever. This increases equity value, allows for higher rental rates (ours are low) and retains renters for longer periods of time.
During bad economic times, I move us out of the stock markets, almost but not completely, and roll our money into rental income. Each home we rent out brings in $1200 per month or so. Stock profits pay for improvements and upkeep. End result is more cash in the bank to use for either more real property investment, stock investment or Glassman's "day trading" activities.
Yes, Glassman, I day trade a lot.
So, with recession coming, which any reasonably intelligent person can see coming, it is very critical to move your money into safe havens until better economic times.
Safe havens are food, shelter and clothing. Since the dawn of humankind, our priorities are just that and in that order; food, shelter and clothing.
We shoot for the second, shelter. Rentals here in California are few and in high demand.
Some object to political overtones. But you know what? Politicians are in charge of everything, which includes the stock markets and economies.
Everything, literally everything about life, is controlled by governments. Those governments are composed of politicians.
Political agenda make or break economies. Bush is an idiot, he is ruining our and world economies and this directly effects investors; that's us.
Purl Gurl
You will _never_ lose money on real estate investment.
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hmm, well what would you say to me of the less, er, callipgyian asset base than yourself, who drives an 89 station wagon around so that he can put extra cash towards his kids college funds, rather than shelling out for a real car?
my main stock accounts are for 4 goals:
1) retirement, 15% of my and my wife's pay goes there
2) kids college funds, $800 a month goes here - both my kids want to go to U-Michigan, and i have no doubt that they'll have the grades etc to get in
3) funds towards our next house, to add to current house equity
4) nest eggs for the kids, so that they'll have some cash when they graduate college
rental real estate doesn't quite fit this picture, what advice would you give me? cash out of all stocks held in all these accounts?
i generally agree with you re: real estate being a great buy and hold proposition. however, here is an interesting quiz for you. i was just reading about a place, a place where land is very scarce and is very overcrowded, where real estate values have gone *down* for 13 straight years. any guesses as to the place?
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Liberals have been very grumpy lately with all their hatred for our president and his policies in the middle east have made them look so bad. As far as i can tell the people in Palestine and Lebenon and Iraq are making decisions on their own and not by the government. Liberals must now must turn their doom and gloom predictions to the economy. Will they be wrong again??? Big smiles
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you don't have to be a "liberal" to hate bush. you just have to be awake. or from pretty much anywhere else on earth. or... --------------------------------- this is from Harpers Index:
Phone # of The G.I Rights Hotline, a nongovernmental service for US Military personnel: (800) 394-9544
Estimated # of calls the line received last year from soldiers seeking a way out of the military: 34,800
Percentage change since 2002 in the average U.S. price of gasoline +35.2
Change since then in the amount of gasoline Americans consume per capita: 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------
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right, G. i wonder if it's unAmerican to want news stories that weren't written inside the whitehouse. (check lead story in NY Sunday Times this week.) i know communist russians loved it when their government generated their news.. ------------------------------------------------------------------- meanwhile, my rant continueth:
Citizens for Responsibility & Ethics in Washington (CREW) an ethics watchdog org.
"CREW brings legal cases exposing government officials who betray the public interest by serving special interests. CREW's cases target not only such officials, but also the special interests supporting them. CREW is nonpartisan and is a non-profit, 501(c)(3) organization."
they claim the bush administration has by far the worst record on every level, regarding ethics (that it's "laughable.") . a good example is the ppl in the department of the interior - tend to get plucked directly from industries they are meant to regulate. need to fill a job that's designed to regulate coal mining? who do you get? a good fair administrator with a science degree? how bout, a guy from the coal industry! from the very company or companies who will then be able to quickly push thru applications for mining? sounds sweet right? this is what we're dealing with. and there have been serious illegalities from there. (approving contracts for companies that are still paying you a huge settlement for your "contact list" - ILLEGAL. the proper course is to recuse yourself from anything that would involve self-interest.) (i think that guy is Deputy Secretary of Interior J. Steven Griles)
when Cheney had that big energy task force early in the first term? where he invited bucketloads of CEOs from all over the world? how many environmentalists and/or scientists did he invite? NONE. see, that's not good. and the fact is, it's just not done. it doesn't matter what side you tend to be on, politically; any responsible decision maker wants to at least HEAR from all sides of an issue.
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i would encourage you to read "bushwacked", a brilliant book.
chapter one is a masterpeice expose on bush from his harken/aloha days - pretty much of a laundry list of all his "innovations" in terms of business "ethics": massive insider sales without filing paperwork, accounting fraud, moving accounts to the caymans to avoid taxes, you name it. if you read no other chapter, read that one, especially if you have an interest in the market (as i assume most here do).
oh, and then of course having daddy and his rich buddies get him off scotfree.
also many other fascinating chapters detailing, among other things, his massive graft and insider dealings with the department of the interior and other agencies, as you mentioned lucy.
i have to agree with you though glass, the one area where bush isn't dumb as a post is that it was sheer genius the way he stirred up homophobic sentiment to swing the election his way, among other tactics. i hope all those people who voted for bush because they were afraid they would lose gun rights or have a gay married couple living next door, are happy now: nice job.
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here is a direct quote from the president's PR today...
i choose this because my gravest concern about Iraq from day one has been that we are just setting up a theocracy in another mid-east country... note he is speaking in response to a question about Syria/Lebanon, BUT i think you will get the drift...
I like the idea of people running for office. There's a positive effect when you run for office. Maybe some will run for office and say, vote for me, I look forward to blowing up America. I don't know, I don't know if that will be their platform or not. But it's -- I don't think so. I think people who generally run for office say, vote for me, I'm looking forward to fixing your potholes, or making sure you got bread on the table. And so -- but Hezbollah is on the terrorist list for a reason, and remain on the terrorist list for a reason. Our position has not changed on Hezbollah.
of course he is assuming that election politics in the mid-east will be very different from OURS
[ March 16, 2005, 21:49: Message edited by: glassman ]
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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"...rental real estate doesn't quite fit this picture...."
Blue, when we moved off the Oklahoma farm and came to California, everything we owned fit in an old Chevy pickup, and all the money we had, you could hold in one hand. We were literally poor.
We got our start in real estate through traditional means; a bank loan. Difference is we bought a house, claimed we would live in it to qualify, and after escrow closed, we promptly rented it out. We lived in an apartment.
Renters can pay most or all of your mortgage. We had some "negative cash flow" initially. This is, we had to add a few hundred each month to the mortgage payment. The renters paid about eighty percent, we paid the rest.
Over the years, we "flipped" a lot of homes which is to buy, hold for a couple of years, then sell at a good profit. That money we rolled back over into more real estate.
This is a logical plan for many who want to get into rental income property.
Buy and finance a home. Have the renters pay as much of the mortgage as possible. Use your stock market profits to pay the difference.
There are some simple notions on this. Buy a house which needs a lot of work. Roll up your sleeves, get in there and do all the work yourself, all the work you can do.
For every $1000 in work you perform, your equity increases by $3000 easily.
Stay away from swimming pools, spas, and two story homes! Those are always bad investments. Buy clean neighborhood two / three bedroom with one / two bathrooms, then rent to young middle class couples, and especially rent to gay men.
Two bedroom, one bath homes are hot HOT rentals.
You won't go wrong on real estate. Renters pay the mortgage, equity grows every year, your costs are only upkeep which adds to equity.
Finance a home and have renters pay for it!
Yes, gay men. They make the absolute best renters. Gay men are clean, keep their homes really nice and are grateful someone will rent to them.
posted
I have been reading The Oil Factor by Stephen and Donna Leeb as well as The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It with James Turk and John Rubino. The conclusions thus far; the American and world economy are headed for very tight and/or even disastrous financial times. Even the much-touted Real estate appreciation that saved many Americans after tech bubble burst in 2000 may not prevent recession or even depression this next round. Particularly, in that Americans are now using equity from their homes to finance such essentials as home theater systems. The home you just bought for 700,000 in California or other hot markets might only be worth maybe 400,000 or less when the bubble bursts--will be a huge loss and even financially fatal. True investment properties are one thing but to think your personal residence is truly an investment will be discounted when the Real estate market implodes. Traditionally, Real estate has been a bastion of safety but also reliant on the graces of Mortgage banks that are now leveraged up to their eyeballs. Interest rates are going to continue to rise, which will make it riskier for most-potential buyers. The prevalence of ARMs today may be disastrous if we are soon to enter period of hyperinflation. Those who assume that Real estate will continue upward in red-hot markets without reversal are not noting current and larger market conditions. The current volatility upward for oil prices points to trouble ahead for stock market and likely Real estate as well. In a severe recession or heaven-forbid depression who is going to want or be able to fork out money for super-inflated Real estate in markets that assume the trend will be up indefinitely? If a floodgate of Real estate supply suddenly opens up in 'hot markets' huge price deflation will follow. Real estate will be wise for those who can get some real and early equity and get into markets that are very underappreciated. I think it's really dangerous for people to keep buying in these red-hot markets assuming that they will always have the luxury of selling higher tomorrow. Sound familiar fellow traders?
World demand for oil now exceeds total supply and $100.00 a barrel or more can be expected before the end of this decade. Chinese economy is moving massively from agriculture to manufacturing, which consumes vast amounts of non-renewable energy. This is no blip on the radar but rather there will be less of this resource from here on out--mixed with greater and greater demand from all over the globe. Consumer and Government debt levels are at all time high, trade deficit is growing exponentially and US currency dollars grow more-worthless by the day. Europe and Asia continue to retain weak growth prospects and are unwilling to reform their systems and like the US are trying to borrow their way out of financial struggle rather than paydown outstanding debts. The big picture doesn't look pretty...but neither is general fiscal irresponsibility at all levels Govt, Corporate and Personal. The latter sounds all doom and gloom but after reading most of these two good reads today...it makes you look around at current conditions and realize the serious problems we face. I heartily recommend the above reads--thought-provoking and very timely.
Thank you very much for your insights into real estate. We have been considering buying pre-construction homes in South florida and flipping them once they are built. Any comments on this practice? I see from your profile that you are an English Professor....University, college? I am an Adjunct Marine and Environmentl Science professor myself. I read your posts dilligently, and look forward to all your new insights. Regards, Sharkone
-------------------- No matter how thin you slice it it's still baloney...
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....I used to live in Tustin or wherever that base is...is it gone now?
I also keep hearing CA is a housing bubble. i know in my area prices are dropping slooooowly but on the down trend, more of a buyers market than a sellers
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A real estate bubble is a myth just as oil at a price of $100 per barrel is a myth.
There never has been a real estate bubble and there never will be. Currently real estate agents are kicking back a percentage of their commission to make a sell. Real estate prices level off but never fall.
What is happening in California is spreading like crazy to most other states. Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado and beyond.
Unlike renewable resources or products which are manufactured, more land is not available; it is a fixed quantity resource. Real estate is controlled by supply and demand. Supply is low, demand is extremely high. Prices will increase.
A real estate bubble is a complete myth used to sell books unworthy of reading but worthy of removing money from gullible pockets.
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Wary is the rule when Glassman starts thinking "callypigious" thoughts!
My response is leveled at authors writing pulp fiction and trying to pass their words off as pulp faction. Heh!
Hype sells well.
Yes, you could say the real estate bubble has burst but you would never know. A bubble burst in land value is simply prices stop rising, but only for a period of time.
For Sharkone, "flipping" condos is the latest rage. Many buy before construction and sell during construction! Prices rise that quickly.
Our choice is to buy homes which need a lot of work, homes in nice neigborhoods but neglected. Sweat equity makes for great returns. My hands are calloused and those callouses are dollar signs certainly.
Returning this to a topic of stocks and investing, I recently pulled ten grand out of our brokerage account to pay for a new roof, to pay for color coating and to pay for some paint jobs.
Moving money from stocks into real estate is to move your money into a different business sector; it is to keep your money invested and working.
A problem encountered is you have to pay taxes on a move like that. Stock to real estate is not like real estate to real estate with no capital gains, thus no taxes. Not so with stock money.
However, you can sell your "loser" stocks, avoid capital gains, then drop your loser money into real estate turning it into winner money.
Taxes are just a paper shell game.
All of this is nothing more than what you, the reader, and others do on a yearly basis; move your money around to different sectors to keep it working and profitable.
posted
Good to hear all these ideas on money and real estate.... Perhaps if the Dem leaders in congress could come up with some of their own ideas on Iraq or social security, instead of just being anti-Bush..... they wouldn't continue to lose power. p.s. Grey Davis is the man
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: charger, they argue in front of the cameras, but they all drink out of the same champagne bottle behind closed doors....
quote:Originally posted by glassman: charger, they argue in front of the cameras, but they all drink out of the same champagne bottle behind closed doors....
the dems arent in it for the power or a job... their just there to make the republicans look good..... must have lost the coin toss i suppose
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