posted
Early last year I urged investors to cash out of the stock markets because of an anticipated bad year for investments. Last year proved a bad year for investments; stagnant markets.
This year, recently, my suggestion was and is the same; cash out.
I also suggested looking for profitable healthy companies if you are to invest, or companies with products which are or will come into good demand despite American families becoming more poor.
Another suggestion of mine more than a year back was to roll your profits over into real estate, as was my suggestion for year 2003. Real estate equity growth was and is thirty percent year over year, here in California and many other states.
Real estate equity growth has cooled off, but real estate prices _never_ fall.
UCLA Anderson is predicting recession. They are never wrong.
Be sure to read articles at this site, if you wish to learn about the economic condition of California. We are the seventh largest economy in the world. California sets the economic pace for all America.
Concerns me to know a muscle brained movie star is in charge of our California; he has zero economic experience, even less management experience and makes his decisions based upon what Maria and his kids tell him to do. Children are making many policy decisions for California.
posted
UCLA did not say they are never wrong. I said they are never wrong. That is a figure of speech which is tempered by background knowledge which is assumed for all investors participating here.
Perhaps you will better understand if I state,
"UCLA Anderson is almost always right."
Even when UCLA is claimed to be wrong, later they are discovered to be correct.
Partial Abstract:
** December 2, 1998 Wall Street Journal California A Look at the Top Readers Of Economic Tea Leaves
By SHEILA MUTO Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
"UCLA
Over the past couple of years, real-estate professionals around California could always count on getting a big laugh from UCLA's forecasts on housing permits.
Mr. Kimbell and his team were particularly bullish on the housing market in the mid-1990s_and, as a result, their projections were off by a whopping 39 percentage points on average during that period.
"I used to joke that Larry Kimbell found a new forecasting technique: He finds the highest forecast and forecasts even higher," says Michael Carney, executive director of the Real Estate Research Council of Northern California and Southern California.
For his part, Mr. Kimbell makes no excuses. "I was completely and utterly wrong" on housing, he admits. The reason for his inaccurate predictions, he says, was a misreading of how political pressures have thwarted development in California.
In fairness, if housing permits were left out of the mix, UCLA would have done far better. In fact, without that one category, it would have ranked second overall behind the LAO. In what many analysts consider the two most important indicators -- employment and personal income -- UCLA ranked first and third, respectively.
What's more, being out of step has at times served UCLA very well. The school came closer to calling the recession than did any of the other forecasters. (Much of that work was done by David Hensley, who has since left UCLA for Wall Street.)
Yet making those calls can be tough. If you're out of step with most forecasters' projections "and you're wrong, you get a lot of heat," says Mr. Kimbell, who works on the California forecast with Tom Lieser. But "if you're part of a consensus and you're wrong, you're always excused."
**
This might be laughable, Guilty Money, except Kimbell was not wrong but rather his prediction was one year too early. His prediction came to light and came to truth.
posted
what are you talking about. just shut up. i swear the next halfbrain who even thinks of saying anything that could even remotely be considered conceivably annoying to Purl Gurl, i will hunt you down, rip your arms out of their sockets, and beat you unconscious with them.
AND CHANGE THAT POSTSCRIPT ALREADY. NOBODY CARES ABOUT YOUR LACK OF STARS.
posted
not yet, rage is still legal,i expect it to be outlawed soon by being slipped into the SS ammendment bill..i guess it will have to be since most people are against privatiZing it....
as far as this nit-pickicking goes? a sense of humor goes a long way when you are under a lot of stress...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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posted
I thought last year was a good year for the stock market.
quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: Early last year I urged investors to cash out of the stock markets because of an anticipated bad year for investments. Last year proved a bad year for investments; stagnant markets.
This year, recently, my suggestion was and is the same; cash out.
I also suggested looking for profitable healthy companies if you are to invest, or companies with products which are or will come into good demand despite American families becoming more poor.
Another suggestion of mine more than a year back was to roll your profits over into real estate, as was my suggestion for year 2003. Real estate equity growth was and is thirty percent year over year, here in California and many other states.
Real estate equity growth has cooled off, but real estate prices _never_ fall.
UCLA Anderson is predicting recession. They are never wrong.
Be sure to read articles at this site, if you wish to learn about the economic condition of California. We are the seventh largest economy in the world. California sets the economic pace for all America.
Concerns me to know a muscle brained movie star is in charge of our California; he has zero economic experience, even less management experience and makes his decisions based upon what Maria and his kids tell him to do. Children are making many policy decisions for California.
posted
Most Americans think we are invincible. Any one should know you can't have an EXPANDING trade deficit and maintain the economy. Oil will keep rising or remain above $50. Gas will push $3 a gallon within the 2 years. But listen to most and everything is fine and the economy is GREAT. IMO we are on thin ice.
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quote:Originally posted by osubucks30: Most Americans think we are invincible. Any one should know you can't have an EXPANDING trade deficit and maintain the economy. Oil will keep rising or remain above $50. Gas will push $3 a gallon within the 2 years. But listen to most and everything is fine and the economy is GREAT. IMO we are on thin ice.
LOL, only the poorest 98% of the country should be worried....
and of course those who have INVESTED in certain canadian diamond co's
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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posted
in the red with SIRI J/K keithsan - i'm pretty much red in all my longs but am optimistic. yeah - it's funny how this anthrax pops up now and then.
quote:Originally posted by keithsan: can we get this started quick, i'm in the red on some puts....
maybe anthrax will get the ball rolling downhill...
thx for the tip PG i'll read them when i have a sec.
posted
Glassman: as far as this nit-pickicking goes? a sense of humor goes a long way when you are under a lot of stress...
LL: --you got me. but isn't beating someone unconscious with their own ripped-out arms, "humor"? (maybe not in mississippi, huh..) even the simple fact of little me telling someone on allCocks to "just shut up" was vaguely funny.i don't know why. we're deteriorating, as a culture. there's no way out. might as well just tune in to Reality TV, start taking really bad drugs, and give up altogether. 2nd thought, i'm gonna sell everything, like PG says. start a little food cart. organic burgers. i mean really, what are the health-fooders supposed to do when they get a burger craving? i will provide the answer. sexy down-to-earth workers will push the thing around town . the food will all be drop-dead delicious. plus, things on the menu like "a dixie cup of roasted corn & rice" for 20 cents. you know, recession treats..tricks to make you think you had lunch.. (thinking, i'm just thinking...) 15 cents if you take it right in your hands (no dixie cup).
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posted
yep in the red with siri, its lower, but not under 5 like the bet.....it will get there see the downtrend, just not by friday when options wrap up unless i have some luck and they don't.
LOL-whats up with the "feelings" tap dance going on....
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posted
in my eyes, there will always be a market out there for something of great need. someone will have the service, product etc. no matter what the recession we reach. in other words, instead of the high dollar malls........we go to wal mart. so as long as there is a demand for something (which there will be) there will always be investing going on. if there is a dollar to be made, some one will find it.
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posted
hey keithsan - just so you know - i'm long on SIRI but have no fear if it drops below 5. heck i plan to add to my position if it drops below 5 - even now i think is a good buy.
i rather be optimistic in life because it keeps you in a positive state of mind rather than be pestimistic with negative feelings. sean hannity had a quote on this. trying to find it.
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posted
i agree tater9. there's always money to be made - just got to find it.
quote:Originally posted by tater9: in my eyes, there will always be a market out there for something of great need. someone will have the service, product etc. no matter what the recession we reach. in other words, instead of the high dollar malls........we go to wal mart. so as long as there is a demand for something (which there will be) there will always be investing going on. if there is a dollar to be made, some one will find it.
posted
as we deviate to siri, i didn't say it was a pos. it is a stock, that is in a downtrend, and is overvalued. I will probably go long on it too, but i will probably wait till it bottoms most likely in the low .3.00's
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posted
hey - how about an XM and SIRI merge? there was a rumor at one point. nuff said - let's get back to UCLA Anderson: Recession Coming everyone.
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quote:Originally posted by Lucy Lastic: AND CHANGE THAT POSTSCRIPT ALREADY. NOBODY CARES ABOUT YOUR LACK OF STARS.
It originated when some guys were talking about getting five stars -- as if that's the sole reason we are all here. I think the message is valid. I could care less about getting stars or whether you think what I type is worth anything.
And as for the recession? Well, that's just an opportunity to buy some stocks at great prices. Haven't you been here long enough to realize every day in the stock market is opportunity; it's just knowing how to play it?
-------------------- May your trading build your character as well as your portfolio.
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posted
apologies, boys. i... i... i think i managed to get free of the straps last night, before the mean lady came in and stuck me with the big needle. ======================
orig posted by thorn: ---------------------------- Haven't you been here long enough to realize every day in the stock market is opportunity; it's just knowing how to play it? ----------------------------- no, not really. i'm green. i know pretty much nothing. i'm really seeing this as a temporary disturbance... the idea of active trading disturbs me, the more i explore it. (trading, not investing.) money just moving around, without any of the ppl involved actually producing any product or service. money was initially invented bcs i have a sack of potatos, the egg man doesn't need potatoes, and i want eggs.
the basic question one asks oneself, it seems to me, as a young adult considering what to do for a "living".. is "what do i want to," or "how do i want to contribute?" trading seems to be one funny piece of a greater puzzle of craziness that our culture.. (sound of baloon deflating) ..etc.
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posted
Unemployment continues to go down here in NJ... to almost dangerous levels an article in the star ledger stated.... and its hard to buy a new house they go so fast... Recession could happen from terror attack etc.... but the economy is fine here... there are always liberal economists trying to rain on our parade
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pretty awesome) investing insights....
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J/K keithsan - i'm pretty much red in all my longs but am optimistic. yeah - it's funny how this anthrax pops up now and then.
