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Author Topic: ETLT- any one have thoughts?
<Concerned Shareholder>
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If all that 15m in contract revenue is deferred to 4Q, and if the acquisition of E-Sea is already complete, this means that 4Q is going to be super fat for this company
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blue_in_MI
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the first PR that really discussed E-Sea as the new subsidiary of ETLT yesterday:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060124/20060124005363.html?.v=2

so they will be operating their own clinics for the mammograms, in addition to selling them. relatively small revenue for now, but will clearly be ramping up fairly quickly to be about 10-15% of their revenue for the FY 2006, and hopefully more after that.

it's unclear exactly how much revs/profit will be booked due to E-sea to the 2005 bottom line, the 10K for which is due out march 30. i imagine will be a relatively small amount, but clearly will ramp up to be a bigger % of their business in 2006.

it's of note that, a little unusual for an OTC stock, ETLT did actually provide guidance for the 2005 10K numbers. per their 12/5 PR, they are guiding for revs "in excess of $21M", compared to a little under $17K for FY2004. they also note that their latest dairy project numbers won't be included in the last Q of 2005 - not until this year.

doing some simple math, is clear that 4Q2005 should end up being about an average Q for them - should be about $4M in revs since they're at $17M in revs already for the year. i guess you can look at this in a number of ways. last year they only had $1.6M in revs in 4Q, but it's my understanding that much of their business is still seasonal, with the biggest Q's being the 2nd and 3rd Q's of the year. they seem to be working to "smooth out" the seasonality of their business to be a little more consistent, clearly e-sea will help with that.

to this point for FY2005 they've made about $3M in profit on that $17M revs. 4Q2004 they booked about $0.5M profit on that $1.6M revs, is unclear how much they will book in 4Q2005. my guess would be maybe $1M or so. the only sentence in the 12/5 PR about income is: "The company expects earnings for the year-ending December 31, 2005 to exceed those for the year-ended December 31, 2004."

so actually <Concerned Shareholder>, while it will clearly be profitable - personally I'd doubt that 4Q is going to be "super fat for this company". ETLT is slowly but surely building their business, my guess is that it will take until 2Q2006 for the numbers to get fat. they have invested in some major new business-generating streams during the FY2005, but these leads will take a little time to fully get going.

of note also is their statement from the 12/5 PR: "The company also anticipates a significant increase in net assets from those reported as of December 31, 2004." clearly e-sea will help here: it will have to be proven out with 2006 numbers, but - it's still my opinion that ETLT bought E-Sea for a song, and that in the end it'll prove to be quite a profitable investment for them.

so anyway - my general opinion is that ETLT is a good long-term hold, and that is exactly what i'm planning on doing. i want to see how 2006 plays out, the results of their 2005 investments. it's very disappointing to me that it quickly fell all the way back from it's very brief peak, but - i still think that ETLT has a good chance to eventually get to $1+. am going to keep holding it in my long-term accounts like roth ira and kids' college funds. barring any major changes in the company or something that makes me really change my opinion of them, i don't anticipate selling for at least a few years. i don't believe it's likely to have a huge jump when 4Q numbers come out 3/30; i view it at as a long-term play and think the numbers will rise more gradually. we'll see how it plays out.

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blue_in_MI
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one other brief comment on the guided 4Q2005 profit: actually it should be least $1.2M if their guidance is correct. their 12/5 PR states:

"The company expects earnings for the year-ending December 31, 2005 to exceed those for the year-ended December 31, 2004."

so far they're at right around $3M profit through 9 months of 2005, and they made $4.2M profit in 2004. so they'd need to come up with at least $1.2M in profit in 4Q to exceed their 2004 earnings. so maybe my $1M profit guess for 4Q was a little low, maybe $1.5-2M is a little closer, if their guidance is correct.

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blue_in_MI
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odd trading patterns for ETLT; up nicely today on large volume, whereas it barely budged yesterday on their latest PR. go figure.
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nice little run going: was .38 2 days ago, just hit .53.

yearly range of .14 to .79, gotta love the OTC, heh

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still strong volume here with ETLT, .55. will be interesting to see whether it fizzles or can sustain. either way, i'm holding long though.

is interesting that chinese stocks always seem to "run in packs". i'm convinced that part of why ETLT moved up sharply was because of a sympathy effect with stocks like CXTI, AOB, SUWN moving up sharply. has happened a few times that their movements are at least semi-correlated and that they tend to run together.

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ETLT will continue to move for at least the next 2 days, may take a small dip by the 3rd day.
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volume dried up, basically stabilized in the mid .50's for now.

will be interesting to see if they stay there for a bit, or slowly sink back into the .40's. hard to say, but if i had to guess barring major news or anything: bet they will sink back to about .50, and then perhaps rise again a bit before the next earnings report. we'll see. i'm a lot more interested in the long-term than short term price movements, frankly.

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slid back a bit when the volume picked up, but support held and had an afternoon mini-run today for a .62 close.

i continue to like this one, have been adding to my holdings on any dips, ETLT is actually my largest OTC holding at this point.

i found their latest update on their news page very interesting. mangos. they apparently have some kind of deal to cooperate with a mango orchard owner, who is selling his entire orchard's output to wal-mart. will it be a significant revenue stream, rivaling e-sea? nah. but i still find it interesting and kind of amusing.

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blue_in_MI
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it also never hurts, if you're a little OTC company that many people doubt even really exists, to get your name associated with a giant like wal-mart. even if it's just for a little mango project.
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nice day for ETLT, pushing .70 again on good volume.
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dipping on relatively low volume - adding a little more at .61. am hoping that .60-range will be the new support area, we'll see
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blue_in_MI
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bummer, obviously i guessed wrong on the short-term movements of this one. took a dip today based on the late (again) 10K:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060403/20060403005887.html?.v=1

"The extension was requested because the Company is assessing the impact, if any, that FASB 133 (Accounting for Derivatives) might have on their financial statements for the year-ended December 31, 2004. While the Company believes that the impact will be minimal, its independent auditors have insisted that this matter be resolved before they issue their opinion for the year-ended December 31, 2005. The Company fully intends to file its Form 10-KSB on or before the extended due date of April 15, 2006."

have a fair amount of ETLT already, but will be hard to not add more if it dips any more. the delay is annoying, but - i think they'll get it in by april 15. and i still think the 10K will be quite good and show at least .10/sh profit on the year, with good growth prospects looking forward. we'll see.

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it's a major disappointment to me that ETLT was not able to get their 10K in on time. i really hate late filings, bugs the crap out of me. The "fully intends to file" by April 15 clearly did not come to fruition for ETLT: much to my chagrin, no 10K filed at edgar online yet.

i am really hoping they file monday morning, will try to get in contact with them Monday if there is nothing out by market open.

luckily, has held up fairly well despite the late filing: still around .52. no doubt will see the .40's again if the 10K is still not out by the middle of next week, however.

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STILL no 10K. as this is my largest OTC holding - even bigger than ALMI - very disappointing.
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major deja vu, just like one year ago - STILL waiting on the 10K. did i mention how much i hate late filings?

frankly, am a little relieved and surprised that ETLT/E is still at .50, thought the market might have punished them more for their tardiness.

being stubborn, of course i am still holding.

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dear ETLT,

where the #$%* is the #&%$ing 10K? you are a MONTH late now.

from,

pissed_off_in_MI

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my last post pretty much said it all, but - here is my actual latest correspondence with ETLT, in case anyone here follows the company.

seeing as my top 3 OTC holdings are: 3) KSWW 2) ALMI 1) ETLT, suffice it to say the delay is hardly sitting well with me. However, I am still holding, being highly stubborn.

----

I regret that ETLT delay to file the 10KSB.
The management can not help but...Actually, the audit of 2005 and E-sea acquisition have been done on March 20th, the only thing is to amend some numbers of 2004 according to FASB 133. And this amend won't impact the cash, only adjust numbers--seems like number game.
Anyway,the annual report 10KSB is almost ready and is expected to be filed in several days.
Thanks again.

William Cai
Manager
Heron Public Relations Group, Inc.


> Mr. Cai,
>
> I am a shareholder in ETLT - make that ETLTE - as are my children
> and father. The 10K annual report is now about a month late, and two
> weeks after the April 15th date it was said ETLT "fully intends" to
> file by.
>
> This is very disappointing, investors lose all confidence in a
> company when they can't get a filing in within a month of when they
> are supposed to, and continue to miss stated deadlines. It reflects
> very poorly on the company and management. Much more delay, and we
> will be on the pink sheets here after ETLTE gets delisted.
>
> Do you have any kind of firm date that Eternal is planning to file
> the 10K by? I really don't want to have to sell all my ETLTE stock,
> because I find the company very promising. However, it's not
> acceptable to me as a shareholder to invest in a company that is
> unable to reliably file their reports even a month late.
>
> Please let me know what is the latest current plan and timetable with
> the 10K.
>

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Dear Pissed_off_in_MI,
I dont like the "Anyway,the annual report 10KSB is almost ready and is expected to be filed in "several days".
Thanks again."
I am not holding it but several days? how many more do they want?

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blue_in_MI
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as OTC investors go, i am a pretty patient person. this can be seen by a number of threads around here where i've held OTC stocks for years, whereas the average hold of a stock discussed here is probably more on the order of weeks (and in some cases, minutes).

however, i admit that i *hate* repeated late filings, particularly when they're not days late but weeks late. CLSI and ETLT have historically been two of my favorite companies over the last 2+ years. yet they have frustrated me to no end, with their in complete inability to get an SEC filing out anywhere near on the time.

neither company seems to fully grasp the concept that a history of constant late filing is not just a minor and easily correctable glitch. it has long-term effects on investor trust, and presents the impressed to the public that the management in sloppy, indifferent to shareholders, and/or disorganized.

it was no coincidence that the decline in ETLT's share price from .70 range started weeks *before* the 10K was due. clearly this was people having a memory of how late last year's 10K was filed, and selling to avoid holding during what they figured would be yet another late filing this year. and - obviously, those fears were justified.

if ETLT ever wants to get their shares out of swing-traders hands and into the hands of long term investors who dont' sell off before every filing is due, they will make it a top priority to get the damned filings out ON TIME.

i still expect the numbers to be good for ETLT once they're finally out, and that it will rebound. but - still doesn't excuse the lateness, and they are simply going to have to work on this in the future and start early.

the 1Q numbers are actually due may 16, last year they were 4 days late. with ETLT this year - may well be that we get both the 10K and the 10Q within a week or two of each other, bunched very closely. we'll see.

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blue_in_MI
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STILL waiting. latest i got from them was this yesterday:

"The calculation 133# has a little mistake due to the original document the lawyer gave to them missed a sheet. The recalculation has been doing. The report is expected to be filed in this week."

surprisingly though: ETLT still hanging right around .50. just no excuse for how ridiculously late this 10K is though. apparently ETLT shares filing specialists with GFCI.

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ETLT, i am simply defeated by ETLT; can't believe they didn't file this week. i send them long (and increasingly testy) emails all the time, even though i know full well it's a waste of my time.

a couple times a week cai emails me back with the excuse-du-jour and yet another date, which of course fails to occur. especially with the language barrier, am pretty sure cai understands shareholders are pissed off and disgusted, but doubt he fully understands or forwards to management my or any other shareholder emails.

am still holding ETLT, because i still believe both the 10K and upcoming 10Q will be good once they're FINALLY out, and that they are a promising company. but i freely admit that i am thoroughly defeated by ETLT's incompetence in anything filing-related. these guys couldn't file their own fingernails on time, let alone a 10K within 6 weeks of the damned due date.

every company has pros and cons, and there's no doubt what ETLT's biggest major con is.

ETLT and CLSI taught me that for me personally it's better if i avoid companies that are incompetent at filing Q's and K's. while i'm patient with many aspects of a company and tend to hold stocks WAY longer than the average hold time of say this board, i admit i just have no patience for late filing shenanigans. i'm sure CLSI will go straight to a dime now that i've divested most of my CLSI holdings. but - i can live with that, reduces my aggravation not to have to wonder about how many weeks or months late they'll be, ever time another filing comes due.

ETLT i'm going to stomach the aggravation and keep holding because i want to see the upcoming K and Q. but i admit that the major negative of their mickey mouse filing circus is making me think i want to scale back my ETLT exposure.

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freakin' FINALLY!!!!!!

has taken absolutely forever, but FINALLY they managed to actually get the 10K out:

http://tinyurl.com/hntv2

unbeleivable how long it took, absolutely no excuse for the absurd delays and parade of keystone cops excuses.

but - as expected, is a damn good.

a good 4th Q pushed them up to a net income of 12 cents a share on the year, so it traded at a trailing P/E of almost exactly 3 for most of the day. twelve cents, that is pretty damn good. nice ramp-up in revs the last 4 years: $12.6M, $15.5M, $16.8M, and $23M. by my quick calculation, shareholder equity now checks in at a nifty $1.42 a share, not bad for a stock that traded at .37 most of the day.

this is the most frustrating stock has ever owned in many ways, especially because it is my largest OTC position - even larger than ALMI. their incompetence in getting the 10K out on time this year is inexcusable imho.

but - once it was FINALLY out, the numbers definitely didn't disappoint; i will give them credit for that. i expect a significant gap up on monday. still have to read the 10K in it's entirety, but - not much doubt that it kicked some major ass.

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one of the knocks against ETLT has always been that their big cash position was earmarked only for use in china. is interesting, with some regulation changes, there has been at least a mild change in that regard, though too early to tell how it'll pan out.

the part of the filings that on the last 10Q read:

"Although the Company has a cash and bank balance of $21,329,840, it has all been designated by management for expansion of its operations within the People's Republic of China. Therefore, if the Company is to expand outside the PRC, as it anticipates doing, or pay its non-PRC obligation, it will have to sell additional shares of its stock or borrow funds from third parties."

now has been changed in this 10K to read:

"Although the Company has a cash and cash equivalents balance of $18,224,488 and short-term investments of $9,909,084, management believes that the best return for such cash and short-term investments is in the People's Republic of China. Therefore, if the Company is to expand outside the PRC, as it anticipates doing, it will have to sell additional shares of its stock or borrow funds from third parties. However, because of the loosening of currency restrictions in the PRC, it can pay its non-PRC obligations from its funds held in China."

some of how this week goes for ETLT will depend on the 10Q which should also be out shortly. it's seasonally their slowest Q so i don't have big expectations, and doubt the 1stQ will show big numbers. but - is clear that ETLT is working to "smooth out" their revenue instead of having it all concentrated in the last two Q's per year. E-Sea revs will be basically nonseasonal and should help in this regard.

In comparing the results with their pre-stated "guidance" from back in december: looks like net income came in a little lower than they expected (earned about $1M in 4Q, rather than the $1.2M they guided for), but - revs came in quite a bit higher than they guided for (almost $6M in the 4thQ, compared to guidance of about $4M).

note that also they seemed to not include the 5-6M shares that they issued to purchase e-sea (which i still believe was a great deal, btw) in calculating the .12/share bottom line: next Q we will see about net profit based on 39M rather than 33M shares. actually i think this is one thing ETLT messed up in their unaudited comments on the bottom of page 32 of the filing. they mention .18/share if they were to have had e-sea all year, but - unless i'm missing something, this number should have been based on the full share count of 39M rather than the 33M they apparently used. so really would have been more like .15/share,unless i'm missing something...?

my general view of ETLT is that it's a promising value stock that is unfortunately incompetent at filing on time, but - has great growth potential, particularly with e-sea. revs have ramped up quite nicely the last 4 years, topline roughly: $13M, $15M, $17M, and now $23M. i think they've done a good job in several areas, for example keeping their margins at above 30%. was clear they could never sustain the near-40% margin they were at a year or two ago, but - i'm impressed by keeping it above 30%. they've also clearly made moves to put their large cash position to work: the new dairy project, and e-sea. i look at both of these as long-term projects: neither will have a gigantic initial impact on their numbers, but - both (particularly e-sea) i think will continue to grow and add to their numbers down the road. i could be wrong, but: my view of ETLT is that it's a long-term hold. sounds like other projects/acquisitions may well be in the works as well, though so far the mango/wal-mart thing mentioned on their website has still yet to be formally announced. i don't expect the numbers there to be huge, though.

their biggest expansion project of course is the dairy cattle breeding center. this will cost them on the order of $33M (reduced from the original figure due to tax-free nature), and they're projecting 5 years out additions of $12.5M to revs and $2M to profit, and the ROI point perhaps in year 6 (was 7, but - tax changes since helped). will be funded mostly via their cash position, which imho is a good idea: no one seems to care about their cash position, so might as well put it to use in generating profits and growing the company. will clearly take awhile for these to add to the bottom-line, but - i like their long-term idea of putting their cash to use.

one nice thing about e-sea: seems to have a quite nice margin. for 2006 it looks like e-sea might provide perhaps $2.5M in revs, will be interesting to see the growth rate it takes after that point. i'd certainly hope that it would continue to rise up quite a large amount in later years. also at this point it's hard to speculate on what other projects they might get involved with, they do seem to be continuing to actively seek to expand further. we'll see.

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surprised that ETLT was still in the mid .40's much of the morning after the 10K fri after the bell: broke .50 but only briefly.

i thought volume would be higher today as well: figured we'd see a 2M share trade day, but - only about 800K so far today.

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10Q out after the bell today. actually a little better than i thought, seemingly thanks to one large lamb sale. earned .015 on the Q on about double the revs of last year.

not too bad, considering it's always their slowest Q and they actually had a mild loss in the same Q last year. next 2 upcoming Q's are historically their biggest.

pretty much no volume today: only 27K shares traded.

hopefully the danged E will now finally be off soon, man was i tired of looking at it

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decent bounce this morning, back up to .52-.53 range on about 400k volume.
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dipped to about .40 last week, bounced yesterday to .48 based on Q results released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060822/20060822005168.html?.v=1

am still digesting the full Q, but at first glance:

* overall revs slightly ahead of last year: total revs slighly lower than i thought/hoped, but e-sea larger than i would have guessed: already over $2M the first 6 months alone

* earned .04 on the Q: was hoping for .05, but - still not bad.

balance sheet continues to improve, .91/sh in cash or equivalent. i still hold about 8-10K shares of ETLT, used to own more but i just couldn't stomach the constantly late filings, they bugged the crap out of me. i'm going to keep holding the balance, i'm encouraged by the e-sea numbers moving up.

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blue_in_MI
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wow, going on 2 years now have been posting about ETLT, owned it for 3 years. *finally* ran this week, topping out at .97 today. has sure been a long and often painful wait for me, heh.

odd thing is - no particular news or anything to drive it up; just kind of ran of its own accord. as disclosure - sold half near the open this am, but - am still holding half long-term.

anyone else still holding this one?

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blue_in_MI
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back down to .60 again, *sigh*. one of the most frustrating stocks have ever owned, but - still holding half
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