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ETLT- any one have thoughts?
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by blue_in_MI: [QB] the first PR that really discussed E-Sea as the new subsidiary of ETLT yesterday: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060124/20060124005363.html?.v=2 so they will be operating their own clinics for the mammograms, in addition to selling them. relatively small revenue for now, but will clearly be ramping up fairly quickly to be about 10-15% of their revenue for the FY 2006, and hopefully more after that. it's unclear exactly how much revs/profit will be booked due to E-sea to the 2005 bottom line, the 10K for which is due out march 30. i imagine will be a relatively small amount, but clearly will ramp up to be a bigger % of their business in 2006. it's of note that, a little unusual for an OTC stock, ETLT did actually provide guidance for the 2005 10K numbers. per their 12/5 PR, they are guiding for revs "in excess of $21M", compared to a little under $17K for FY2004. they also note that their latest dairy project numbers won't be included in the last Q of 2005 - not until this year. doing some simple math, is clear that 4Q2005 should end up being about an average Q for them - should be about $4M in revs since they're at $17M in revs already for the year. i guess you can look at this in a number of ways. last year they only had $1.6M in revs in 4Q, but it's my understanding that much of their business is still seasonal, with the biggest Q's being the 2nd and 3rd Q's of the year. they seem to be working to "smooth out" the seasonality of their business to be a little more consistent, clearly e-sea will help with that. to this point for FY2005 they've made about $3M in profit on that $17M revs. 4Q2004 they booked about $0.5M profit on that $1.6M revs, is unclear how much they will book in 4Q2005. my guess would be maybe $1M or so. the only sentence in the 12/5 PR about income is: "The company expects earnings for the year-ending December 31, 2005 to exceed those for the year-ended December 31, 2004." so actually <Concerned Shareholder>, while it will clearly be profitable - personally I'd doubt that 4Q is going to be "super fat for this company". ETLT is slowly but surely building their business, my guess is that it will take until 2Q2006 for the numbers to get fat. they have invested in some major new business-generating streams during the FY2005, but these leads will take a little time to fully get going. of note also is their statement from the 12/5 PR: "The company also anticipates a significant increase in net assets from those reported as of December 31, 2004." clearly e-sea will help here: it will have to be proven out with 2006 numbers, but - it's still my opinion that ETLT bought E-Sea for a song, and that in the end it'll prove to be quite a profitable investment for them. so anyway - my general opinion is that ETLT is a good long-term hold, and that is exactly what i'm planning on doing. i want to see how 2006 plays out, the results of their 2005 investments. it's very disappointing to me that it quickly fell all the way back from it's very brief peak, but - i still think that ETLT has a good chance to eventually get to $1+. am going to keep holding it in my long-term accounts like roth ira and kids' college funds. barring any major changes in the company or something that makes me really change my opinion of them, i don't anticipate selling for at least a few years. i don't believe it's likely to have a huge jump when 4Q numbers come out 3/30; i view it at as a long-term play and think the numbers will rise more gradually. we'll see how it plays out. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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