posted
There are several things that could happen with TD #4. Currently, the NHC forecast is calling for it to become a Tropical Storm soon. The models are still turning it towards the northwest, as is the NHC forecast..
There is a trend to look at in the models though. Compare the 12Z models runs on Monday to the 12Z model runs on Tuesday.
12Z Monday
12Z Tuesday
A clear shift to the W by all the models, they still have TD 4 going NW, but the trend is a big thing when it comes to weather models. The newer models do seem to turn it to the N more towards the end, but their positions are all to the W of yesterday's models. Oddly enough, the faster this strengthens, the less chance it has to make it across the Atlantic.. If it strengthens, it will likely get turned more to the NW by a weakness that is forecast to develop. If it gets sheared apart at all, it will lose some of its organization. This may allow it to continue on a western track and eventually redevelop as it nears the Caribbean. It has a harsher environment for development in front of it. The hurricane models are calling for strengthening, but again, it has a tough environment coming ahead.
quote: A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Another wave to watch in front of TD 4. On the NHC Schedule of possible recon flights on this one starting tomorrow.
posted
The NHC and the models have shifted their forecast track for now Tropical Storm Debby to the West. The weakness that was forecast to develop to the North of Debby is much smaller than the models had depicted.. If Debby can stay on a western enough track, it may bypass a trough that will be coming off the east coast. Here is the NHC discussion.
quote: THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72H... THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE IN PART TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS. THE BAM MODELS HAVE BEEN ATROCIOUS AT BEST WITH A LARGE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SO THEY WERE NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI NORTHWEST OF DEBBY. THIS FEATURE IS SO INDISTINCT AND MUCH SMALLER THAN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE OF DEBBY THAT IT IS HARD TO LOCATE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE UPPER-LOW AND DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LOW AT BEST IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE SAME SPEED AS DEBBY... ANY NORTHWARD INFLUENCE BY THIS SYSTEM ON DEBBY SHOULD BE LESS THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION... IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.
posted
Choicetrade is showing it as worth nothing also. I emailed and they said the symbol change won't show up until tomorrow. So I wouldn't worry Michwlv.
Posts: 55 | From: Pennsylvania | Registered: Apr 2006
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quote:A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
posted
Tropical Storm Debby is slowly gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic. Winds are up to 45 mph as of the 5 AM EDT advisory. The storm is expected to continue tracking toward the west-northwest while slowly gaining strength. Debby could become a hurricane within 72 hours.
Posts: 55 | From: Pennsylvania | Registered: Apr 2006
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posted
Climatology argues for Debby being a "fish system" or one that never reaches land.. Of more concern is the invest east of the Winward Islands. It is currently strengthening and heading towards the Caribbean and potentially the Gulf of Mexico in the long run. Keep an eye on this one.
Wave east of the windward islands is continuing to become better organized. Conditions expected to remain favorable for strengthening as the system moves towards the west-northwest and the Caribbean. NHC says it could possibly declare it a depression or name it a Tropical Storm on Thursday. An Air Force RECON plane will check it out tomorrow.
posted
97L (most likely soon to be Eduardo) looks to be the real deal. This system is the biggest threat so far this season. It is heading into ideal conditions for development. If it makes it into the GOM, the western side seems more likely than the eastern. Watch this one carefully.
posted
144 hr CMC forecast.. Note: 144 hr is a long way out and the reliability is low.. Also of note is that the Canadian model has been doing better with tropical systems than many of the other models so far this year.
posted
It's late August and the water is plenty warm in the entire Caribbean and Western Atlantic. There are a lot more factors to forming a tropical system than just the SST's, otherwise there'd be storms everywhere starting in late August. Conditions DO appear quite favorable for current invest 97L.
posted
It still has a long way to go before it gets into the heart of the Caribbean or even close to the GOM. Right now it seems like it may be a bit too close to South America for any significant short term development. The eastern Caribbean has also historically not been the greatest place for the development of tropical cyclones. Once it reaches the central Caribbean, things should really start to take shape.
quote: 667 WONT41 KNHC 241920 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
CORRECTED FOR DATE IN HEADER
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.
Ernesto Soon To Form; Severe Weather Shifts EastBy AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker
(State College, PA) - Tropical Depression 5 is nearly tropical storm strength; once Tropical Storm Ernesto forms, the question is, "Will the storm then intensify into the first hurricane of the year?" Meanwhile, a quieter day is in store for the northern Plains after a violent day of tornadoes and thunderstorms on Thursday. Today, the threat for severe weather will shift over parts of the Midwest and the central Plains.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression 5 was located about 345 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with maximum-sustained winds of 35 mph. Within the next twelve hours, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is expecting the fifth tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin to form as the depression continues to become better organized.
Beyond Tropical Storm Ernesto developing, AccuWeather.com is closely monitoring the potential for this storm to become the first hurricane of the season. With a strong zone of shear to the west of the depression, the pace of the storm will determine its fate. Early Friday morning, Tropical Depression 5 was steaming westward at 20 mph. If the storm maintains its current speed, then those higher winds to the west will prevent any significant intensification. On the other hand, if the storm slows down, then that zone of stronger winds will shift northwestward allowing the storm to remain under an environment that is more conducive for a hurricane, possibly a category 3, to develop. Whatever pace the storm takes on its west-northwest trek across the Caribbean Sea, bands of heavy rain and gusty winds will spread from east to west over the Caribbean Islands through early next week.
Posts: 268 | From: New York | Registered: Mar 2005
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You don't have to know what any of that means.. just the part that says Tropical Storm Ernesto.. We have our fifth named storm come the 5PM advisory. Significant strengthening does not appaear likely until a later period. Ernesto's heaviest convection is currently away from the low level center of circulation. Another LLC will most likely reform under the convection. The ull to the west of Ernesto, which is causing the shear, should move west as Ernesto does. If the LLC reforms under the convection, the forward speed will slow a bit and it may move a bit more north.. The slower Ernesto goes, the better chance he has of developing, because the ull can move west and the shearing environment will lessen. Once it reaches the western Caribbean and GOM, things should really start to heat up.
quote: ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000 FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA. SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
quote:000 WTNT45 KNHC 261454 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS.
IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
-------------------- “Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another." Posts: 540 | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Ernesto is definitely in a weakened state right now. It's interacting with Hispanola and Air Force recon hasn't found hurricane force winds yet.. may get downgraded to a tropical storm. Once it gets away from Hispanola, Ernesto should strengthen again, perhaps reforming a broader low level center of circulation. The broader the LLC is, the better chance Ernesto has of surviving over Cuba. It's exact track will be VERY important. A few degrees difference will decide if Ernesto is over Cuba for 12 hours or 24 hours. If it can hold itself together through Cuba, there is nothing to stop rapid strengthening in the GOM. I wouldn't trust the forecast beyond 2-3 days as of right now. The models are all over the place and a ridge in the SE United States could deter Ernesto from taking a north/easterly track. Many models show Ernesto getting into the GOM, and then meandering here and there with no real steering currents. It's general direction in the next few hours will be very important in determining how long Ernesto will be over Cuba.
Ernesto To Target Florida and Southeastern U.S.By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Chris Stachelski
(State College, PA) - Tropical Storm Ernesto will target Cuba today before heading northward toward Florida and the southeastern United States as the week progresses.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Ernesto was located about 45 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. Ernesto was moving to the northwest near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
On Sunday, Ernesto became the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season with maximum sustained winds reaching 75 mph. However, after moving over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, Ernesto weakened to a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon. Ernesto has since moved back over water and this, combined with light winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, should allow Ernesto to at least maintain its strength, if not even intensify slightly, before making landfall in southeastern Cuba by later this morning as a tropical storm. Ernesto will then head northwest across the central portion of the island or very close to the northern coast of Cuba later today before emerging back into the water Tuesday. Just how much Ernesto weakens today will be determined by how long the storm stays over land.
Across Cuba, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected from Ernesto. The heavy rain will lead to a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. Tides 4 to 6 feet above normal will pound the southern coast of the island. Hurricane warnings are in effect for central and eastern Cuba. The southern coast of Haiti remains under a hurricane warning where at least 6 to 12 inches of rain can fall. Flash flooding and mudslides will also be a concern here.
Hurricane watches have been posted for the South Florida mainland from Deerfield Beach on the east coast to Chokoloskee on the west coast. In addition, hurricane watches have also been posted for the entire length of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.
A hurricane watch has also been posted for Andros Island in the Bahamas. In addition, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the Central Bahamas.
Once Ernesto emerges from Cuba, it will begin to turn more toward the north as it moves around the edge of an area of high pressure located east of Jacksonville, Fla., in the midlevels of the atmosphere and also begins to be picked up by an approaching upper-level trough digging into the Mississippi River Valley. This will take Ernesto to or very near South Florida by late Tuesday. Just how much the midlevel ridge of high pressure weakens will determine just how far east or west Ernesto tracks when it gets toward South Florida. Although the best case scenario now still favors a track northward across the Florida Peninsula, there is also the potential for Ernesto to pass just along or just off the east coast of Florida.
Ernesto's intensity at its approach to South Florida is also highly dependent on just how much time it spends over Cuba. The quicker Ernesto can get back into water, the stronger it will likely be when it arrives near South Florida. Ernesto will move over very warm waters as well and will be in an area where the upper-level winds are light and favorable for further development; therefore, t is not unreasonable for Ernesto to become a hurricane by the time it makes a landfall or is near the coast of South Florida.
The fringe effects of Ernesto will be felt in South Florida by early Tuesday with conditions rapidly deteriorating as the day progresses as the outer squalls of Ernesto work northward. Strong winds and heavy bands of rain will be the main threat and even an isolated tornado or waterspout is possible. Rough surf will also pound the coast, especially in the Keys and along the southeast Florida coast, bringing the threats of storm surge and beach erosion.
As time progresses, the effects of Ernesto will work northward into central and northeast Florida on Wednesday and into southeast Georgia and the low country of South Carolina by Thursday. In time Ernesto will curve northeast up the East Coast of the United States and it is highly possible that it will be hurricane when it affects these areas as well. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency Sunday, directing counties to open their emergency management offices and activating the National Guard. Bush canceled a scheduled trip to New York on Monday, choosing to stay in Tallahassee to monitor storm developments. Officials in the Florida Keys told tourists to postpone any immediate plans to travel there and ordered those already on the island chain to leave. All travel trailers and recreational vehicles were ordered off the islands immediately.
All interests Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas should continue to check the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for the latest updates on Ernesto. Now is the time to review your hurricane protection plan and take necessary action.
From the Northeast to the Midwest to North Texas, a slow-moving front will bring another day of wet weather. Several waves of low pressure will ride eastward along the front enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms. With the slow movement of the front and the threat of heavy rains repeatedly moving over the same area, there will be a possibility of flash flooding in some areas. Flash flood watches have been posted for today for central and southern portions of Indiana, including Indianapolis, and for parts of West Texas. Flash flood watches have already been posted for parts of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia.
On Sunday, heavy rains fell across the parched mid-Atlantic bringing the greatest rainfall totals of the month in many areas of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, southern New York and southern Connecticut. A warm front lifting north across the region was responsible for the soggy day with some areas receiving over 4 inches of rain. In Norwalk, Conn., Interstate 95 was flooded due to the heavy rains. In Bridgeton, N.J., so much rain fell that basements were flooded. Despite coming in the wake of a recent prolonged dry streak, the rain that fell was too much in too short of time and flash flooding was able to occur. Some of the rainfall totals include: Juniata, PA - 6 inches Vineland, NJ - 4.70 inches Milford, CT - 4.24 inches Bridgeport, CT - 4.01 inches - a new record for the date, old was 2.48 inches set in 1971 Selingsgrove, PA - 3.45 inches Sterling Forest, NY - 2.51 inches
The threat of wet weather will linger along the front into Tuesday, although drier weather is expected across the Midwest as the last in a series of waves finally moves into the Northeast and an area of high pressure builds southward, bringing in drier air to the central Plains and central Great Lakes.
A cold front finally moved far enough southward in North Texas that the streak of consecutive days of at or above 100-degree temperatures ended at the Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, Airport on Sunday with the high temperature there reaching only 96 degrees with plenty of clouds in the sky. Before the last day of this weekend, the city had to endure 19 straight days of the temperature rising to or above the century mark; this is the sixth longest stretch in history for the airport. The break in the heat will not be brief as the coming workweek will feature near-normal temperatures.
Across the central Plains, an upper-level low will spark off showers and thunderstorms today from South Dakota to eastern Kansas. Some of the storms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds. This activity will wind down tonight as the upper low heads eastward.
Across the West, an upper-level ridge of high pressure led to a hot summer day across the region, especially away from the immediate coast. Medford, Oregon soared to 100 degrees for a high temperature and in Seattle, Wash., fell one degree short of its record high for yesterday with a high of 87 degrees. The heat will continue today east of the Cascades, but the arrival of an upper-level trough will bring some cooling to areas west of the Cascades. As the trough axis works onshore tonight, the marine layer will strengthen, bringing in a more significant cooling to areas west of the Cascades for Tuesday. Even east of the Cascades, highs will lower sharply Tuesday as cooler air from the north is ushered on in.
Posts: 268 | From: New York | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
The next few weeks should be interesting. Though I'm not a meteorologist it does look like the steering currents are starting to move activity coming off the African coast a little farther south.
I wouldn't be suprised to see a larger storm form right behind Ernesto.
-------------------- Get In, Get Out...but Make Up Your Mind! Posts: 803 | From: Houston | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
Latest update from accuweather.com 8/29/06 7am
Ernesto Back Over Water; Gaining Some StrengthBy AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker
(State College, PA) - Back over water, Tropical Storm Ernesto has gained some strength early this morning. The storm will continue to intensify, most likely just under hurricane status, before making landfall over the upper Florida Keys tonight. After moving through Florida Wednesday, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is forecasting Ernesto to impact the Carolinas Thursday and Friday, then possibly the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states this Labor Day holiday weekend.
Posts: 268 | From: New York | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by ballertx: Check out the new system forming already in the Atlantic and another one about to go into the Atlantic off the African continent:
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