posted
Not sure if this will do anything for the price of NSMG, but check out all this rain the HPC has predicted for the next 5 days.. Over 10 inches in Miami and DC. Over 13 inches on the Delmarva peninsula, Richmond, and Norfolk. Could also regain hurricane strength before a secondn landfall on the East Coast.
quote: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 312107 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
Interesting - If this website's path and intensity holds true...CAT 4 , looks like another Isabel storm (Sept 2004)...which will mean devastation for SE Virginia - Ernesto soaked it already with 10+ inches of rain.
Since I live in SE Virginia, I experienced Isabel - I only had a 60-foot oak tree fall on my house and had no power for 5 days - LOL.
Posts: 2554 | Registered: Nov 2005
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posted
Not quite sure how you get a SE VA landfall with that.. Not quite sure how you can compare a newly formed ragged tropical storm to Isabel either..
quote:Originally posted by utvolsfan13: Not quite sure how you get a SE VA landfall with that.. Not quite sure how you can compare a newly formed ragged tropical storm to Isabel either..
I am saying the FUTURE forecasted path & intensity are similar...I did not say it Florence will make a direct hit on SE Virginia...If you look at Isabel's path in 2004 it did not make a direct hit on SE Virginia, but went over it as a strong CAT 1/Weak CAT 2.
Next time read my post before you type.
Posts: 2554 | Registered: Nov 2005
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Tropical Storm Florence (former T. D. Six) has been christened in the central Atlantic. Florence (40 mph) is expected to continue strengthening for the next several days as it moves on a WNW track. It's forecast to reach minimal hurricane intensity (75 mph) early Friday a couple of hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. By early Sunday, it could be a category two hurricane--some models suggest a category three --with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph about 850 miles southeast of the Carolina coast... and moving toward the northwest.
Farther out in the Atlantic, a disturbance trailing Florence by several hundred miles has some potential for further development over the next day or two . A third disturbance , with a low pressure area, has moved off the African coast far to the SSE of the Cape Verde Islands at around 10 degrees north latitude.
Posts: 2554 | Registered: Nov 2005
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quote:Originally posted by utvolsfan13: Not quite sure how you get a SE VA landfall with that.. Not quite sure how you can compare a newly formed ragged tropical storm to Isabel either..
I am saying the FUTURE forecasted path & intensity are similar...I did not say it Florence will make a direct hit on SE Virginia...If you look at Isabel's path in 2004 it did not make a direct hit on SE Virginia, but went over it as a strong CAT 1/Weak CAT 2.
Next time read my post before you type.
I read what you wrote. At the time there was no official FORECAST that even brought Florence to a Cat. 2 in the 5 day time period. It's really easy to look around and find a model that spits out the data you prefer, but it doesn't necessarily mean that that's the "forecast." The only official "forecasts" are given by the National Hurricane Center, because they know how to analyze the different models. They know their weakenesses and strenghts. Better to look at all the models than just the one that's going to make you the most money.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER CORE REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE...PLUS A 05/1641Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 1003 MB AND 42 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER THAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 65W-75W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER ...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST. GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...IT REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM...AND LARGE CYCLONES TEND TO TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THAN SMALLER ONES DO. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WITH A FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING INDICATED AFTER THAT AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER 29-29.5C SSTS AND BENEATH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. IF FLORENCE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE LIKE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THEN STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LIKE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
posted
I think that the NHC is purposely giving us erroneous information about Florence's forecast in order to load up on ECCI, NSMG, & WEGI at these levels, and tommorow morning they will announce that Florence will go due west for a US east coast landfall as a CAT3 storm.
It's not like they are ever held accountable for their constant inaccurate forecasts that they post on their website concerning these storms.
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posted
lolz true. Florence or no florence this is a great entry point today; I'm loadin' as much as I can
Posts: 4071 | Registered: Dec 2005
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quote:Originally posted by stocktrader2006: I think that the NHC is purposely giving us erroneous information about Florence's forecast in order to load up on ECCI, NSMG, & WEGI at these levels, and tommorow morning they will announce that Florence will go due west for a US east coast landfall as a CAT3 storm.
It's not like they are ever held accountable for their constant inaccurate forecasts that they post on their website concerning these storms.
posted
Helene expected to form today. This one's coming off the African coast moving due west. This could possibly be a 'west runner.' Though only 4 of 36 (roughly 1 of 8) coming from this location actually reach the US (ex: Hugo).
posted
Just to establish my position on NSMG: This one isn't for the light of heart. Other posts are dogging it as a viable company for the future because of cash flow problems.
It's just like a lot of other penny's out there, just trying to make it.
Dilution may be coming, but right now is a good opportunity to double your money with news of a strong storm. Ha! So far, this season has been a sleeper.
I'm only in for 1000 shares at these prices. If you stayed in on the drop, you might consider averaging down. It's a gamble any way you look at it.
But so is any stock, no matter what anyone says. At least it reacts to news in a predictable way - (and weather can't be kept secret). GLTA.
The Perfect Storm is on it's way.
Posts: 803 | From: Houston | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
# 9 no threat but # 10 might be- Read bottom paragraph!!!
9th tropical depression may form
BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, September 22, 2006 - The ninth tropical depression of the season may be forming in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and another wave about to exit the African coast also holds potential for development.
The vigorous tropical wave located about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands holds potential for development says the National Hurricane Centre in Miami.
The wave with a well defined surface circulation near 12 north and 36 west is in a very favourable environment and slow development is expected over the weekend. However computer models predict that this will curve north and pose no threat to the Caribbean.
The system that the Caribbean should carefully monitor however is a tropical wave which will exit the African coast this weekend. Long range computer models are predicting that this is a potential threat to the Caribbean in another week.
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, looks like another Isabel storm (Sept 2004)...which will mean devastation for SE Virginia - Ernesto soaked it already with 10+ inches of rain.
