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Author Topic: Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails
SeekingFreedom
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Hackers broke into the servers at a prominent British climate research center and leaked years worth of e-mail messages onto the Web, including one with a mysterious reference to a plan to "hide the decline" in data about temperatures.

The Internet is abuzz about the leaked data from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (commonly called Hadley CRU), which has acknowledged the leak of 61MB of confidential data.

Climate change skeptics describe the leaked data as a "smoking gun," evidence of collusion among climatologists and manipulation of data to support the widely held view that climate change is caused by the actions of mankind. The files were reportedly released on a Russian file-serve by an anonymous poster calling himself "FOIA."

In an exclusive interview in Investigate magazine's TGIF Edition, Phil Jones, the head of the Hadley CRU, confirmed that the leaked data is real.

"It was a hacker. We were aware of this about three or four days ago," he told the magazine, noting that the center has yet to contact the police about the data breach.

TGIF Edition asked Jones about the controversial "hide the decline" comment from an e-mail he wrote in 1999. He told the magazine that there was no intention to mislead, but he had "no idea" what he meant by those words.

"That was an e-mail from ten years ago. Can you remember the exact context of what you wrote ten years ago?" he said.

The Telegraph has posted some of the more scathing excerpts from these emails, which the newspaper suggests points to manipulation of evidence and private doubts about the reality of global warming, though the much of the scientific language in the e-mails is esoteric and hard to interpret.

Others suggest the comments are simply "scientists talking about science." In an interview with Wired, Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, points out that "if you read all of these e-mails, you will be surprised at the integrity of these scientists."

Still, one notable e-mail from the hacked files clearly describes how to squeeze dissenting scientists from the peer review process:

"I think we have to stop considering Climate Research as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…What do others think?"


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,576009,00.html

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glassman
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yawn...

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raybond
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The earth is in trouble all but a few understand this big capitals profit is at stake if anyone does a fix it means there industry goes so the big capital protects its profits by slowly ruining the world.

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Relentless.
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LOL..
You commies are shown clear proof that the numbers are forged.. the numbers that found your religion are faked by morons and you sluff it off with little more than a yawn?
Come on guys... Atlest show me some dirt on the hackers.. show me something.
You guys were just hit between the eyes and all I see is a wandering half comment in search of a direction?
Gotta be a brain dead mineral to not see the whole CO2 issue was BS to begin with. Gotta be long since left evolutionally(Yes I made that word up.. why?.. cause it ****ing fits.. that's why) to not see that the earth's mean temperature fluctuates on a million year cycle.

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Relentless.
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Yes Raybo I was including you in that one...

Just hoping to avoid your inevitable confusion.

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raybond
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I am no commie I may be on the left but there is a big difference it may surprise you I am christian before I am anything else. One thing for sure I have seen the worst people in the world and delt with them and I have seen a lot of societies mistakes and I know the republicans don't have the answer or I should say the right wing conservatives.

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The Bigfoot
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You call it a smoking gun?


quote:
a mysterious reference to a plan to "hide the decline" in data about temperatures.
what about that is a gun? smoking or non??

What decline in temperatures? What plan to hide it?

Can you prove he falsified data?

Who is he in collusion with? What proof do you have to substantiate that claim?

Is there any further information less than a decade old that is suspect in its ethics?

Why did the article qualify the statement positing personal doubts and manipulation with the tagline
quote:
though the much of the scientific language in the e-mails is esoteric and hard to interpret.
Could it be to give themselves an out for a statement that could otherwise be proved fraudulent?

It doesn't appear this guy is a non-biased scientist but I see no smoking gun.

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by Relentless.:
LOL..
You commies are shown clear proof that the numbers are forged.. the numbers that found your religion are faked by morons and you sluff it off with little more than a yawn?
Come on guys... Atlest show me some dirt on the hackers.. show me something.
You guys were just hit between the eyes and all I see is a wandering half comment in search of a direction?
Gotta be a brain dead mineral to not see the whole CO2 issue was BS to begin with. Gotta be long since left evolutionally(Yes I made that word up.. why?.. cause it ****ing fits.. that's why) to not see that the earth's mean temperature fluctuates on a million year cycle.

i see proof of nothing in that article. you'll have to do better than those few lame quotes.


as for your claim that the CO2 issue is BS? please prove to me that we are not converting millions of years of sequestered CO2 into the atmosphere in a couple of centuries. while destroying a good percentage of the CO2 sequestering mechanism that was already in existence.

it doesn't even take much common sense to understand all of the principles. there is no "scheme" to destroy the economy, there is no "socialist plot" to take over the world.

in fact? if we just ignore the environment? we will all live in a cess pool. China is a good example.

even if the climate is on a "normal upswing" the additional strain of the extra CO2 will make it worse.

never mind the fact that the Govt that whoever is out of power hates so much is always owned by the same people - the same people that figure to make profit by having somebody else to pay for the mess they make. nah, i'm not ignoring the fact that the scientists get paid to do what they do either....


destroying the planet you are leaving to your kids for a few bucks? that's evil. plain and simple.

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Relentless.
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No one is suggesting that we should simply refuse to clean anything and live like slobs...
The fact of the matter is the current argument has nothing to do with that.
The argument at hand is the intentional skewing of numbers to promote an unproven theory. A theory that is being lauded as fact and is being used to enslave and enprison the entire human race.
The earth has been hotter and it has been colder... It has had more CO2 and it has had less.
Right now we are in a slight cooling trend based on...
The big yellow thing in the sky.
When the sun is quiet much like it is now, we see cooler temperatures. When it is active, like it was during solar cycle 23, we see warmer temperatures. good news is solar cycle 24 is begining and we are now seeing the second and third sun spots of that cycle emerge. This means soon there will be a warming trend on this planet as well as the others in this system.
And no skewing of the numbers will change any minds as to the cause.
Blaming any warming or cooling trends on CO2 is much like blaming parking meters for an engine failure.

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glassman
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show me the intentioanl skewing -i read the article, and then read the "source article" that's really a b log spot

http://bl ogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-the-final-nail-in -the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/

the fact is that scientists argue amongst themselves, and yes they scheme... esp. when it comes to getting editors hired and fired at journals. scientists are basically rated on their performance by whether they produce peer reviewed publications...

i've shown you how much CO2 is produced daily by oil alone. we use 80 million barrels per day, more or less. i didn't even go to coal and methane.


the warming is happening, and there's nothing in there to show that anybody has forged data. there are only quotes out of context that are absolutely not proving anybody skewed figures. if you were to go to the actual emails and pull quotes and links so that i can see the context? i might be convinced that they were actually up to no good, but that's not in either article that i saw...

i know that old temps (over 100 years old or so) are based on tree ring measuremnts for crying out loud.

i don't care about that. the critical data is in the tropospheric studies.

we burn down the rain forests, we destroy mangrove swamps (mangroves account for as much sequestation as the forests) we live in/on a spaceship. yep, it's big'un, but we are still responsible for our own survival. we all know that there's no future for people that think only in terms of today and tomorrow, forgetting entirely about next week, or next year, or decade.

there are worse things at play than the cyclical rise and fall of temps.

there's more methane just laying on the ocean floor than there is proven oil deposits. it is frozen due to the temp and pressure. raise the ocean FLOOR just 1.5 degrees across the globe and we will release most of that methane. it is a nightmare beyond comprehension, and it would probably happen very fast once it begins..


if we affect that temp 1/2 degree and nature does the other full degree we are in just as much trouble.

i know Gore is jerk, but that doesn't really matter. the science is sound despite what the oil co's keep hiring their scientists to say....

lastly? this one university is not the only place studying climate change and these all appear to be internal discussion by members of that university...

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Relentless.
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quote:
From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@xxxxxxxxx,mhughes@xxxxxxx, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@xxxxxx,t.osborn@xxxxxxxxxDear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or
first thing tomorrow.

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.

Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Cheers
Phil

Dunno, Glass, that email alone seems to invalidate your entire argument.
The practice is spoken of as common procedure...

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glassman
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"Mike" refers to Jones' colleague Michael Mann, who told the New York Times that the "trick" was simply a way of solving a data problem. In this case, the warming trend of the last century was detected in tree-ring samples only until 1960, but it continued in thermometer readings.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,576009,00.html

keep in mind that these guys are not the sole source for "world temps".

troposheric studies have been pretty conclusive that CO2 is very weak greenhouse gas.

it's less then ten times as strong as methane C4H4 but we are releasing millenia's worth of it and also reducing our ability to sequester it.

i am no fan of tree ring data. it is very extrapolative.... forget the charts entirely...

we need to begin planning for the long-term now. not next decade not next generation...

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The Bigfoot
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quote:
No doubt, instances of cherry-picked and poorly-worded “gotcha” phrases will be pulled out of context. One example is worth mentioning quickly. Phil Jones in discussing the presentation of temperature reconstructions stated that “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.” The paper in question is the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) Nature paper on the original multiproxy temperature reconstruction, and the ‘trick’ is just to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Scientists often use the term “trick” to refer to a “a good way to deal with a problem”, rather than something that is “secret”, and so there is nothing problematic in this at all. As for the ‘decline’, it is well known that Keith Briffa’s maximum latewood tree ring density proxy diverges from the temperature records after 1960 (this is more commonly known as the “divergence problem”–see e.g. the recent discussion in this paper) and has been discussed in the literature since Briffa et al in Nature in 1998 (Nature, 391, 678-682). Those authors have always recommend not using the post 1960 part of their reconstruction, and so while ‘hiding’ is probably a poor choice of words (since it is ‘hidden’ in plain sight), not using the data in the plot is completely appropriate, as is further research to understand why this happens.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/#more-1853

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glassman
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that's why i don't like tree ring data..

and? high CO2 levels actually promote plant growht don't they?

so more CO2 might mean fatter rings at the same temps..
i dunno...

what i am sure of is that if we use up all the oil on the planet and don't "gift" our kids kids with a really good replacement? we are noting more than SOB's. ( i know, that means the kids are too, [Smile] )

leaving it till the last minute and need is greatest is just dumb.

as for the cost? SOMEONE must bear it SOMETIME. and someone will get rich when they do solve the problem. the oil co's want it to be them of course, but they have shareholders to answer to today as well...

when i go to buy a tool? i don't buy ht echeapest on available. i can't justify the snap-on man either since i don't spin wrenches professionally... but i know that the cheapest route is rarely the most economical [Wink]

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Relentless.
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Glass, you must already know that our thirst for oil will be lessening as time goes on. It will have nothing to do with constitution raping legislation... It will be a direct result of the electric cars that will be coming out in the next few years.
I'll use this example again:
 -

Quicker quarter mile than a viper and runs 250 miles...
That's the future and it is exactly what I predicted would be needed to kick start the electric trend.

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jordanreed
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mama!

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jordan

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glassman
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Nationwide in 2006, coal provided 49 percent of the electric capacity, while natural gas usage comprised 20 percent, nuclear 19 percent, hydroelectric 7 percent and wind/solar/biomass 2 percent.

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Relentless.
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So let us build nuke plants...
Nuclear is the answer for truly squashing our coal needs.
It was twenty years ago that the environmentalists were *****ing about nuclear... Now it seems they were wrong.. Shocking I know.
The point is that no matter the solution presented the wackos have a problem.
The only solution is to exterminate the human race.
Can we atleast admit that is the only solution that is acceptable?... To them.
As I've been saying for years: It IS changing.. we are moving towards readily available renewable energy resources. But that never slows or impedes the whining and complaining for the greentards.
You are not going to just hit a switch and have all six billion people start using electric cars and producing non polluting energy...

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glassman
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i'm for more nuke plants.

it would be nice if somebody actually took the waste and disposed of it properly tho [Wink]

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Relentless.
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bleh.. what's a little radiation among friends
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Relentless.
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What a perfectly timed story:

quote:
MIDDLETOWN, Pa. - November 22, 2009 -- A small amount of radiation has been detected in a reactor building at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in central Pennsylvania.

About 150 employees were sent home after the radiation was detected Saturday afternoon, but officials say there is no public health risk.

Exelon Nuclear spokeswoman Beth Archer says investigators are searching for the cause, but that the radiation was quickly contained.

Radiological surveys showed the contamination was confined to surfaces inside the containment building.

The unit has been shut down for refueling and maintenance since Oct. 26. The company hopes to resume activities Sunday.

Officials are checking employees who had been working in the building for possible unusual radiation exposure.

A partial meltdown occurred in Three Mile Island's Unit 2 reactor in March 1979.


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Relentless.
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What a shocking coincedence:

quote:
Climate change data dumped
Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor

SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years.

The UEA’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was forced to reveal the loss following requests for the data under Freedom of Information legislation.

The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals — stored on paper and magnetic tape — were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

The admission follows the leaking of a thousand private emails sent and received by Professor Phil Jones, the CRU’s director. In them he discusses thwarting climate sceptics seeking access to such data.

In a statement on its website, the CRU said: “We do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenised) data.”

The CRU is the world’s leading centre for reconstructing past climate and temperatures. Climate change sceptics have long been keen to examine exactly how its data were compiled. That is now impossible.

Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at Colorado University, discovered data had been lost when he asked for original records. “The CRU is basically saying, ‘Trust us’. So much for settling questions and resolving debates with science,” he said.

Jones was not in charge of the CRU when the data were thrown away in the 1980s, a time when climate change was seen as a less pressing issue. The lost material was used to build the databases that have been his life’s work, showing how the world has warmed by 0.8C over the past 157 years.

He and his colleagues say this temperature rise is “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans. Their findings are one of the main pieces of evidence used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says global warming is a threat to humanity.


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Relentless.
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Any elected official who was involved in this should be hung then shot.. could be shot then hung... I am somewhat flexible on the order.
Publicly...
When I mean involved I mean supported in any way, either by vote or monetarily.
You know I could support drawn and quartered... Add that to the list... I think in some cases the quartering should be last in order just to add to the dramatic effect, but surely there are a few individuals that should be quartered first...
Again.. I am flexible.

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glassman
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wow , i am so happy that we can all forget about this problem now DQR thanx so much [Roll Eyes]

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Relentless.
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I'm truly sorry that your religion has been proven fake, Glass. I'm just trying to spare you the pain of laboring over what to do with these folks.
Don't worry.. I have it taken care of.

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raybond
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Don't be so fast to lord it over everyone, these people that hacked in were criminals doing a criminal act. I would be the frist one to say i was taken in if this all proves to come out the way some think. Experience has told me never trust anyone who will do an act of criminality

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glassman
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LOL. the data storage issue is an old one Ray, don't start assuming the scientists have committed fraud....

the data was "lost" in the '80's..

they had storage options back in the 80s. Optoins included:
1) Typing the raw data into the appendix of a "report". (Ph.D. Theses in engineering used to do this back in the 80s.)
2) Storing it on cards.
3) Placing all data in manila folders, putting it in a box and sending it to some storage archive. (DOE nathional labs do this with some data, and have since WWII)
4) Placing it on magnetic tape and storing that.
5) Placing it on floppy disks and storing those.

the data in question only covers since 1850 and shows less than a 1 degree change in "world temps".

it is in fact the opinion of the person (Roger Pielke) that announced the data was lost after his request was denied that, well here it is in his own words:

Say what?! CRU has lost track of the original data that it uses to create its global temperature record!? Can this be serious? So not only is it now impossible to replicate or reevaluate homogeneity adjustments made in the past -- which might be important to do as new information is learned about the spatial representativeness of siting, land use effects, and so on -- but it is now also impossible to create a new temperature index from scratch. CRU is basically saying, "trust us." So much for settling questions and resolving debates with empirical information (i.e., science).

To be absolutely clear, none of what I write here should be taken as implying that actions to decarbonize the global economy or improve adaptation do not make sense -- they do. However, just because climate change is important and because there are opponents to action that will seize upon whatever they can to make their arguments, does not justify overlooking or defending this degree of scientific sloppiness and ineptitude. Implementing successful climate policy will have to overcome the missteps of the climate science community, and this is a big one.
Posted by Roger Pielke, Jr. at 8/12/2009 08:53:00 AM


http://rogerpielkejr.bl ogspot.com/2009/08/we-lost-original-data.html


in fact? it would be somewhat odd for the data to be "downloadable" since it was acquired prior to the 90's when Windows made working with PC's common.

i bet the scientists working with he data still have copies of their working versions since they constantly work on them.

Pielke has always been on the "other side" of the debate from Jones too... they would be professional adversaries..

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glassman
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here's the website that supposedly announce the data was lost:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/availability/

it says:

Page temporarily unavailable
The main CRU webserver is currently down.

These pages are being served from the CRU Emergency Webserver.

Not all pages from the main server are available, and what pages are available may be out of date.

Climatic Research Unit

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by Relentless.:
Any elected official who was involved in this should be hung then shot.. could be shot then hung... I am somewhat flexible on the order.
Publicly...
When I mean involved I mean supported in any way, either by vote or monetarily.
You know I could support drawn and quartered... Add that to the list... I think in some cases the quartering should be last in order just to add to the dramatic effect, but surely there are a few individuals that should be quartered first...
Again.. I am flexible.

well, when you can explain to a court of law what crime has been committed? you might get a conviction of a misdeameanor...

you better get your meds adjusted agian [Big Grin]

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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glassman
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so DQR, lets clear up the timeline here a little.

the CRU announced several months ago that SOME of the data would not be available.

then the servers get hacked and there is some publicity and the OLD news that all of the data is not available is re-released as if it's been announced the last couple of days...

i definitely see conspiracy here. i see a conspiracy to try to make people beleive a bunch of liars.

i dug up your unlinked article here it is:

CLIMATEGATE COMMENT
Climate change data dumped by Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor, The Times


He and his colleagues say this temperature rise is “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans. Their findings are one of the main pieces of evidence used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says global warming is a threat to humanity.


http://climaterealists.com

of course the climate realists dot com would be funded by big oil

i only put the last sentence in because it is a blatant lie. (one of many)

Jones in fact does not use any terms like “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans in his papers,

here is his exact wording:

'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.

i don't think very likely is equal to “unequivocally”
in the English language...

this whole affair just shows how desperate some people are to try to nullify the scientific research.

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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raybond
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the people that hacked in were criminals if anybody believes it or not . Like I said wait till the dust settles. If you are interested scientist are the least percentage of people serving time. They are usually truth tellers and people that live by facts.

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Wise men learn more from fools than fools from the wise.

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Relentless.
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That is the same excuse used by most of the AGW crowd too blinded to see reality.. Oh they're criminals so we can't trust them...
Amazing how some are so dense but apparently still bipedal..
The point of all of this is we cannot enter into any sort of legislation either local or global based on the findings of a group of scientists who were very clearly forging those findings. To do so would be treason. If you want to claim the hackers are bad people in an effort to save what is left of your religion then that is fine, but the folks who are elected have a duty to not be so prepubescent in their actions. Those folks have sworn to uphold the constitution and are liable when they break it..
Any call to wait till the dust settles is an aim to allow good ole Obama the time needed to sign our country away in Copenhagen.

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Relentless.
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
so DQR, lets clear up the timeline here a little.

the CRU announced several months ago that SOME of the data would not be available.

then the servers get hacked and there is some publicity and the OLD news that all of the data is not available is re-released as if it's been announced the last couple of days...

i definitely see conspiracy here. i see a conspiracy to try to make people beleive a bunch of liars.

i dug up your unlinked article here it is:

CLIMATEGATE COMMENT
Climate change data dumped by Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor, The Times


He and his colleagues say this temperature rise is “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans. Their findings are one of the main pieces of evidence used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says global warming is a threat to humanity.


http://climaterealists.com

of course the climate realists dot com would be funded by big oil

i only put the last sentence in because it is a blatant lie. (one of many)

Jones in fact does not use any terms like “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans in his papers,

here is his exact wording:

'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.

i don't think very likely is equal to “unequivocally”
in the English language...

this whole affair just shows how desperate some people are to try to nullify the scientific research.

Must have taken you ages to uncover an article posted from the front page of http://www.drudgereport.com/
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece.
Claiming that we can't trust any scientists or organizations funded even in part by oil companies would then lead to the realization that we could not trust any organizations endorsed by your hero Mr. Gore...
Fact remains they were faking data and they were caught...
Everything said trying to excuse or avoid this is pointless and shows bias... and weakness. Weakness of mind, will, and soul.

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glassman
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group of scientists who were very clearly forging those findings.

you haven't shown anything to even suggest that, much less prove it. i guess you are parroting what drudge told you..


i spent about three minutes googling and reading it. and found out where they got it from...


i'm not caliming we can or cannot trust any of them in specific. i don't trust anybody.

endorsed by your hero Mr. Gore..

LOL. i hate Gore and the Clintons, am on record as such and as voting against Gore in '00- you are slipping...


only fools go after the messenger.

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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Relentless.
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I'm not going after the messenger.. I'm aiming at the culprits.. Try to focus.
Glass I would love to post the entirety of the leaked documents but I seriously doubt Bob has the space for another 61MB of unformatted emails, PDF's, Word files, MS Powerpoint files.
Were you to download them yourself you could easily see what us messenger haters are on about, instead of fighting blind like you are.

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