Allstocks.com's Bulletin Board Post New Topic  Post A Reply
my profile login | register | search | faq | forum home

  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» Allstocks.com's Bulletin Board » .11 and Up! » ALU - Alcatel-Lucent (Page 1)

 - UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!   This topic comprises 2 pages: 1  2   
Author Topic: ALU - Alcatel-Lucent
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Currently fighting to break out of a pennant at $2.40.

Recently sold a subsidiary, nearly all debt gone.

Front runner in expanding many 4G network project worldwide.

New lightradio tech included in MIT Technology Review top 50 innovations this year.

52 week trading range 1.39 - 6.63

Share structure troubling with 2.27 Billion outstanding.

PE is only 7.62 though and earnings have beat estimates 4 quarters in a row.

European company, Debt crisis news can influence this one.

I am looking for 20-30% from this level by end of April barring extraordinary events.

Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ALU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p34742060478

Investor Relations
http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/wps/portal/Investors

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
edit...I should rephrase what I said above.

I commented that nearly all debt is gone, that is misleading. This is a huge corp with many different aspects to its finances.

Rather than saying nearly all debt is gone I should say that the subsidiary sale resulted in 1 Billion dollars cash. At the last conference call it was stated the primary intended use of that cash would be to buy debt.

Since that time ALU Bonds have increased in price by about 20% fueling speculation that they are buying back their own bonds.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Chart is looking pretty good Bigfoot. Showing improvement.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Yep. I think we break current trend by the end of week and test the 2.60 resistance.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
2.20 Support? Still a gap @ 1.98. see how it holds up today.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Wanted to see it trade for an hour before I admitted that the 2.30 broke.

Yeah, major support between the 2.15-2.20 and a lot of buying interest anytime she gets near 2.25. I would be surprised if we saw a trade below our current low of 2.24.

Last time ALU bounce off a resistance line she traded 150 Million shares in the range of 2.57-2.20.

Since then we traded around 150 Million before this current 3 day drop with buys over sells approximately two to one.

Excluding external factors stock sentiment is unchanged (some new worries of an economic slowdown should be taken into account but that is market-wide in all markets so shouldn't be used comparative to other securities.) Sentiment does not need to add weight to bear or bull.

Average sell off for this security rounds about 90 Million before regrowth. We have traded a little over 60 Million so far and are in a positive trend trading within the range of the previous sell off. I would say about 10-15Million more shares will be distributed before we regain the growth pattern unless a large owner liquidates. With an almost certain positive earnings due in a month (Genesys sale) and news regarding lightradio rollout expected within the next quarter I don't see that as likely.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
It held up well. I haven't started accumulating yet so if I missed the low I'm fine with that. I had actually wanted to see it break 2.52 before buying, breaking the trend line. When it didn't I held off... then went golfing for a couple days :-) lol.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Keep an eye on it. After the strength we saw this afternoon I think we are going to be testing the 2.50 resistance area again by eow with some good volume.

Lots of people excited that ALU's opentouch tech is in the new Ipad though from what I can tell that isn't exactly a game changer revenue-wise. Also, some fool on motley fool is trying to pump saying ALU is a takeover candidate. It is true to a point but just spin right now as far as I can tell.

There should also be an announcement on a # Bil over 5 years contract in India within the next week or two. ALU is on the shortlist and has a previous relationship with the company. Means they stand to lose something though if they don't get it. Starting to get interesting.

Has been some good golfing weather up here too until today. I didn't partake yet but I know a few who couldn't wait to get out there.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
That hashtag should be a '3' Billion. Typing too fast.

The company which is awarding the contract is Reliance Communications and the competitors for the bid are Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei and ZTE.

ALU is currently in a 50/50 joint venture with Reliance.

The award is due to be announced any day now according to last update from end of February.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
2.32 premarket. My wedge is looking for 2.27/2.30 for support. See if it holds.
btw been watching ANTH and HIL for pinchers, ANTH gave a little one yesterday but couldn't hold it - think they are losing some institutionals.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I have the 6 week support and the 6 month trendline meeting at 2.26 right now giving a firm bottom that I don't think we will touch. First level topline resistance (top of the pennant since we touched the 2.65) is now around 3.39.

I'll look those other two up later. Thanks.

Also, it doesn't really mean much at the moment but we are 20 Million shares away from trading a Billion shares above the $2 over the past seven weeks.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I don't expect a breakout in a short week like this, even with the China news, but it is nice to see we aren't just sitting on the support line anymore. It would be nice to see a little more volume buying volume heading into Easter.

I misjudged how many shares needed to distributed at this level to create the next rung on the ladder. Well over 60% of the float now sold above the $2. Can't imagine that we will need more that 75% before we are sold out at this level with current prospects.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Edit

Rechecked my math using daily volume totals instead of weekly and found I had exaggerated a bit.

With an OS of 2.27 Billion shares and 25% of the OS held by institutions that makes the Float roughly 1.7 Billion.

Trading above the $2 took place on Feb 10th with the high volume of 122 Million shares.

From Feb 10 to yesterday's close puts us at 974.5 Million shares traded representing 57.4% of the float.

Good market action today testing the top of our current range before falling back to rest comfortably on the 2.35 (+.03). We will see if we can test the upper line of the pennant again this afternoon.

A break and sustain into the mid 2.40's is needed to break the pennant then we will need to retest the 2.50's before reaching the critical 2.60 resistance line. Still not expecting such action during a short week but liking current volume and price action.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Looking to see a pretty good dip all around today. See if the dips get snapped right up. I wanted this dip in March to follow my trends over the last few years, but April will do.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
You called it.

I knew yesterday morning was too good to be true, especially for a short week.

Big break today. There are some good aspects to it for the long run be we have lost valuable cushion on the support side of things. If we have a final break now this stock will have to reprove the $2.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
You mentioned this was a short week, i just got that [Roll Eyes]

market is closed Friday, guess taking that day off to play golf (hopefully not in the rain!) will work out just fine! [Smile]

[Cool]

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I did start taking some though. Fills the gap around 1.98 I may get some more.
Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Another big premarket move again this morning. The selling isn't over yet. Looks like you will get your chance at the <2's.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
i ran out of money on one account lol. hate splitting stocks on different accounts. If one of my flips goes through then I'll be good. I saw the 2.08's grrrrrrr
HOV as well (I know this isn't he swinger thread [Eek!] )so watching that one with my other account for a bounce.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
HOV looks like it might be good for a pop but I wouldn't trust it to be ready to trend. I'll put it on my watch list though, housing markets are starting to turn.

I am pleasantly surprised by how we are reacting to the latest drop here. Another couple pennies and we will be back to yesterday's close. Not nearly the selling strength today as we had to contend with yesterday.

Have a good Easter weekend.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:
HOV looks like it might be good for a pop but I wouldn't trust it to be ready to trend. I'll put it on my watch list though, housing markets are starting to turn.

I am pleasantly surprised by how we are reacting to the latest drop here. Another couple pennies and we will be back to yesterday's close. Not nearly the selling strength today as we had to contend with yesterday.

Have a good Easter weekend.

Agree with the lack of (as much) selling pressure. Thought I'd have a bit more time to get more lower but i'm good with my position for now.

Have a good Easter weekend too! Making it a 4 day weekend here [Wink]

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
hov stock offering @ 2.00. bummer.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
doh!

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
As of close yesterday 4/09/12 1.068 Billion shares have traded above the $2 in the past two months since the Feb 10 HV day.

That is (rounded) 63% of the float and 47% of total OS traded within a .60 cent (30%) range of $2.05-$2.66 (Given a float of 75% OS)

1st quarter earnings release is April 26/27.

Analyst estimates of -.11 - +.03 with a mean of -.03.

1st Quarter is traditionally ALU's weakest quarter. If they can beat estimates here it will carry weight. Rest of the year is estimated better with mean estimated FY of .21.

Main few things to look for in the Q1 at the end of the month.

1) Significant debt reduction following the Genysis sale. That sale left ALU with 1 Billion cash which was reportedly going primarily toward paying off debt. Also, cost cutting measures have been a focus for the past year or so. Continued reduction in general expenses will be looked for.

2)Free Cash Flow. ALU has had a problem generating free cash flow and has stated a goal to have positive free cash flow every quarter 2012. Once you say it investors trade based on it.

3)Rollout information for Lightradio. This product is not due to be commercially available until closer the end of the year but some of the first trials have completed or are nearing completion. Market is excited about this tech. Any early commitments would be bullish.

4)Patent licensing info. Some traders are really hyped by this possibility after the Billion Microsoft paid for Yahoo's 900 patents. I don't think this is worth that much interest. First of all ALU is not looking to sell their patents, only license them out. Secondly, half of ALU's 28,000 patents are likely outdated and unusable. It is a good thing to try and monetize this intellectual property but I don't see it being a big cash cow.

Am I missing anything you would consider important Boo?

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Think my crystal ball is kicking me for not listening to it. My gut was 1.98 for the gap. Not that I mind a dip when taking on a longer term play but my lack of discipline shows a bit. IF you don't factor in the market pulling back pretty hard over the last week or so.

ALU 2.01 -0.11 23,013,757 2.01 2.02 2.00 2.09

divergence appears to be pushing this down more than anything else at this point so in my opinion, if the 1.98 fails we could see a better dip. Accumulating more here or not is the decision for me and I'll wait to see if the support holds.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Indeed an assault on the $2 is inevitable. I think it is starting right now. If it holds we bounce, if it does not we dip. Pivotal moment for the chart.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
watching the RSI yardlines now. Like to see this set up on my pincher list sometime soon.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
2.07 pre market. Did I add yesterday??? noooooo [BadOne] even on my own call of 1.98

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Oops!

Raymond James started coverage today at Strong Buy with a 4.50 target price.

Pre-market looks nice but you never know where the volume is truly going to land first hour. You might get one more chance before the sellers dry up.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:
Oops!

Raymond James started coverage today at Strong Buy with a 4.50 target price.

Pre-market looks nice but you never know where the volume is truly going to land first hour. You might get one more chance before the sellers dry up.

lmao, of course.

did you see the PM spike on HOV @ 2.30 for 5k? tell me that isn't some mm manipulation!

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
No I missed that. Any word from the company yet on the 25 Mil share issue?

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:
No I missed that. Any word from the company yet on the 25 Mil share issue?

think they were issued @ $2 with warrants.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
It is a little early to say selling pressure is diminished but it appears to me we are gathering our feet underneath and preparing to stand up.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
Member


Icon 1 posted      Profile for BooDog     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I've been trying to free up more $$.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
The Bigfoot
Member


Member Rated:
4
Icon 1 posted      Profile for The Bigfoot     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I made my last (small) purchase just a few minutes ago. I am strapped in and ready to ride.

--------------------
No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.

Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
  This topic comprises 2 pages: 1  2   

Quick Reply
Message:

HTML is enabled.
UBB Code™ is enabled.

Instant Graemlins
   


Post New Topic  Post A Reply Close Topic   Feature Topic   Move Topic   Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
 - Printer-friendly view of this topic
Hop To:


Contact Us | Allstocks.com Message Board Home

© 1997 - 2013 Allstocks.com. All rights reserved.

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classic™ 6.7.2

Share