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ALU - Alcatel-Lucent
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by The Bigfoot: [QB] As of close yesterday 4/09/12 1.068 Billion shares have traded above the $2 in the past two months since the Feb 10 HV day. That is (rounded) 63% of the float and 47% of total OS traded within a .60 cent (30%) range of $2.05-$2.66 (Given a float of 75% OS) 1st quarter earnings release is April 26/27. Analyst estimates of -.11 - +.03 with a mean of -.03. 1st Quarter is traditionally ALU's weakest quarter. If they can beat estimates here it will carry weight. Rest of the year is estimated better with mean estimated FY of .21. Main few things to look for in the Q1 at the end of the month. 1) Significant debt reduction following the Genysis sale. That sale left ALU with 1 Billion cash which was reportedly going primarily toward paying off debt. Also, cost cutting measures have been a focus for the past year or so. Continued reduction in general expenses will be looked for. 2)Free Cash Flow. ALU has had a problem generating free cash flow and has stated a goal to have positive free cash flow every quarter 2012. Once you say it investors trade based on it. 3)Rollout information for Lightradio. This product is not due to be commercially available until closer the end of the year but some of the first trials have completed or are nearing completion. Market is excited about this tech. Any early commitments would be bullish. 4)Patent licensing info. Some traders are really hyped by this possibility after the Billion Microsoft paid for Yahoo's 900 patents. I don't think this is worth that much interest. First of all ALU is not looking to sell their patents, only license them out. Secondly, half of ALU's 28,000 patents are likely outdated and unusable. It is a good thing to try and monetize this intellectual property but I don't see it being a big cash cow. Am I missing anything you would consider important Boo? [/QB][/QUOTE]
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