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Author Topic: ALU - Alcatel-Lucent
The Bigfoot
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There are weak resistance levels at the 2.08 and the 2.14 before we get to our first really defined resistance band of 2.20-2.23.

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The Bigfoot
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Absolutely floored at the trading pattern so far this morning. I know there is some risk holding before Q1 which is historically the hardest quarter but seriously?

Trailing P/E of 3.5
Forward P/E estimation of 5.88
Price to book of .9
Price to sales of .2

I knew some bottom testing was in order and sales volume has been heavier than I'd imagined, but to have light support with so little buyside action at this level is getting close to ridiculous.

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BooDog
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/502171-earnings-preview-focus-on-7-communication -industry-stocks?source=yahoo
Earnings per share for the first quarter are expected to be no profit-no loss (0 cents a share) from 2 cents a share in the year ago period. Alcatel-Lucent is currently trading around $1.99 with a 52 week range of $1.39 to $6.63.

think i'll take a closer look at DRWI and CLWR.

Earnings are certainly shaking the trees in a lot of places. I guess the real question is whether or not we'll see a dip back to the 1.60's.

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The Bigfoot
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I am not yet ready to give up on this one but I do think it obvious I need a full reevaluation. I have proven far too optimistic at every bump so far.

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The Bigfoot
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Fire sale is over.

Had a small gap up yesterday and now today we are looking at a 5% gap up in premarket. Can we get a full dime jump up?

Earnings release is almost here. Helps that both Apple and Juniper exceeded expectations (not that Apple can really be considered a competitor.) See you on the flip side

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BooDog
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Still like it, thinking earnings have already been factored in for the most part. Still could see a small pull back once they file but still keeping some through next quarter.

jmho

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BooDog
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Gap filled for ALU, good to see.

edited: if it gets the divergence to cross over it could make for a decent pinch play.

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BooDog
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quote:
Originally posted by BooDog:
Still like it, thinking earnings have already been factored in for the most part. Still could see a small pull back once they file but still keeping some through next quarter.

jmho

Small pull back? Here come the 1.60's I was thinking about on the 17th.


Pre-Market Last:
Net / % Change
$ 1.68

() Pre-Market High: $ 1.78 Pre-Market Volume: 300 Pre-Market Low: $ 1.68

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alu/premarket#ixzz1t8fCees4

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The Bigfoot
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tough quarterly out. Some good stuff but in the end small operating loss and traders aren't tolerating it.

See where she lands when the dust settles.

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BooDog
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targeting 1.58 here. Trying to free up some cash on a couple others i'm good on. Thing is its hard to sell something decent. Do have a couple b/s penny stocks though lol.

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BooDog
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you have the guts Bigfoot? Theres my 1.58.

ALU 1.58 -0.37 101,527,727 1.58 1.59 1.58 1.7

ALU (Paris)closed 1.225 EUR -16.61% 112mil. vol

was only able to free up a little cash today so not using it just yet.

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BooDog
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wanna make the big man laugh? Tell Him your plans right?
passed my 1.58 and still dropping a bit.

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BooDog
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okay have some cash now lol. Now we'll see if i want to risk it yet.

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The Bigfoot
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I am waiting to see if we float at this level when volume slows.

Until then I am pouring over the CC transcript and trying to get a better grip on the fundamentals. Fundamentals tripped up the Tech's last month and I want to make sure that will not repeat itself this quarter before I increase my exposure.

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BooDog
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I've been watching the base form @ 1.50. It's taking its time but the ADX and PPO are getting closer.

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BooDog
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With targets at $1 it was hard not to buy in the 1.40's but my money went to other things. Still like this long term.

ALUAlcatel Lucent (ALU) Pre-Market Trading Pre-Market Charts | After Hours Charts May 9, 2012 Market Close: $ 1.50 Pre-Market Last:
Net / % Change $ 1.56

.06 (4.00%) Pre-Market High: $ 1.56
(08:52:11 AM)
Pre-Market Volume: 930,276 Pre-Market Low: $ 1.50
(05:25:27 AM)


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alu/premarket#ixzz1uTGammPU

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The Bigfoot
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Yes, I have decided I like this long term as well but have been holding off purchasing more even though my purchase prices are quite a bit higher than current share value.

We will see what the tech breakthrough announcement will be on the 22nd and re-evaluate then.

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BooDog
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didn't get any 1.37's or 1.39's :-( but i was watching for them. "They" musta known I was waiting. Held up better than I thought it would.

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The Bigfoot
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Very good core router unveiling Tuesday and the market seems to like it. Chart looks ready to move up.
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CAPTNEMOS
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http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=51565757&topic=AL U&symbology=null&cp=off&webmasterId=89753


not so fast.!they have no financials to even look at.so that should be a red flag.2.2 bil shares?u should get out while u can.

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The Bigfoot
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No financials? What stock are you talking about?

We are talking about Alcatel-Lucent the French telecom supplier that competes with Cisco and Ericson and Nokia.

Double listed on NYSE and Euronext, member of the CAC 40. (Though if current pricing continues it is possible they might be replaced on the CAC)

2.2 Bil shares is bloated, long term debt and cash flow problems are current company focus (rightly so) so the number isn't likely to change this year.

No doubt it is a stock that has been sick.

However,

New products are coming online with a lot of buzz
Management has made large cuts in fixed costs
Cash flow still needs work but is improving
Stock is undervalued by just about every metric
Patent portfolio (20,000+ patents) is being opened up for licensing.

Lots of bad at the backdoor, lots of good on the front porch, and two rocks in the front yard (LTD, competition) keeping people nervous.

Contract wins are picking up, once bottom line shows there is enough space between those rocks for a safe path this stock doubling just brings us back to par. Analyst values are anywhere from $1-$5 per share due to the uncertainty.

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BooDog
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looking decent from here (for now).
1.59

edited: oh yeah ~ imo of course.

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The Bigfoot
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I think we are in for a serious test of the 1.70 resistance. Would be great if we could get out of the 1.45 - 1.70 box and see if she has any legs at this point but I don't see serious growth happening until after q2 numbers are released at the end of july. Until then I am playing the waves.

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CAPTNEMOS
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well good luck fellas.

Key stats and ratios
Q1 (Mar '12) 2011
Net profit margin -8.20% 4.76%
Operating margin -11.32% 0.76%
EBITD margin - 6.65%
Return on average assets -4.40% 2.97%
Return on average equity -25.61% 18.41%
Employees 76,002 -
Carbon Disclosure Rating

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CAPTNEMOS
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by CAPTNEMOS:
[QB] well good luck fellas.

Key stats and ratios
Q1 (Mar '12) 2011
Net profit margin -8.20% 4.76%
Operating margin -11.32% 0.76%
EBITD margin - 6.65%
Return on average assets -4.40% 2.97%
Return on average equity -25.61% 18.41%
Employees 76,002 -
Carbon Disclosure Rating -89/1 [More Crap]

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BooDog
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Should see a pretty decent dip today into tomorrow.

Not that it's really stopped dipping from last year. Let it max out the oversolds.

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BooDog
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Pre-Market Last:
Net / % Change
$ 1.18 -.19 (-13.87%)
Pre-Market High: $ 1.35 (04:00:00 AM)
Pre-Market Volume: 249,375
Pre-Market Low: $ 1.18 (06:18:07 AM)

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alu/premarket#ixzz20sFvQ4MR

I was wondering how long it would take to get under the $, not looking like it will take long.

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BooDog
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loose target .92 - 1.09.
Filing should be in soon, earnings presentation Jul 26th.
A LOT of dilution payments made for settlements. Hard not to say the potential for (not saying it lol) okay I will delisting/BK/RS. 12 month targets showing a recovery though.

Not for the light hearted trader on this one imo.

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The Bigfoot
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See where it recovers to after missed target is baked in.

Rough

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BooDog
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quote:
Originally posted by The Bigfoot:
See where it recovers to after missed target is baked in.

Rough

not sure if you've taken a look at the dilution from their settlements. I can't count that high.

Also, I've been looking into the pre market market sweeps that occure even before premarket opens. Pacific stock exchange has been manipulating this big time. Getting a couple jpeg files to send to the dtcc and see if they can help identify whats going on.
Either way, look for about the next 4 quartes to be pretty screwy for Alcatel ~ if they survive without doing a RS.

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The Bigfoot
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Remember that this is an ADR. The primary listing for ALU is Euronext. Nyse follows.

Yep, back to riding waves for the foreseeable future. Still think she is a turnaround story but not nearly on the timeframe I was originally thinking.

Dilution over the past 5 years has been killer, yes. I have been mildly concerned about an RS myself, would not totally surprise. Seemed that had slowed to acceptable levels, will watch to see if it picks up again.

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BooDog
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hard to flip on a .02 - .04 range. Hearing crickets on some of the boards so may make a try on it.

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The Bigfoot
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What do you think Boo? She gonna hold the $1 or are we breaking down once more before we find our feet again?

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The Bigfoot
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Big win for ALU.

5 to 6 Billion Euro contract with Deutche telekom.

http://www.telecompaper.com/news/telekom-to-invest-up-to-eur-6-bln-in-vdsl-roll- out-report

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