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Author Topic: What to do if I am still holding FRE Stocks?
toothpick
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Hi all,

I am one who still holds 660 FRE stocks and extremely worried about what to do.

All news seems to be negative and it sounds like they will be nationalizing the company.

What do I do with my stocks? Do I sell them first thing on monday at whatever the market price is?

Thanks in advance

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wallymac
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U.S. Treasury plan could help homeowners, hit shareholders

By Jessica Holzer
Last update: 5:00 p.m. EDT Sept. 6, 2008Comments: 1
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Homebuyers and holders of Fannie Mae (FNM:Fannie Mae
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Last: 7.04+0.62+9.66%

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FNM 7.04, +0.62, +9.7%) and Freddie Mac (FRE:Freddie Mac
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FRE 5.10, +0.15, +3.0%) debt are the likely beneficiaries of a U.S. Treasury plan to takeover the beleaguered mortgage giants, but it is less clear how shareholders will fare.
A capital infusion by the Treasury could harm investors in the firms' common and preferred stock in the near term, but may ultimately prove a boon to shareholders if the companies rebound, analysts said.
"If the companies are stabilized and the crisis passes, the stock will be worth a lot," Peter Wallison, former general counsel to the Treasury and a frequent critic of the firms, argued.
The Treasury is finalizing a plan to backstop Fannie and Freddie that will likely involve an injection of capital into the firms and a shake up of their top management, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
The intervention, which could be announced this weekend, is expected to put the companies into the conservatorship of their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The companies' boards met Saturday to discuss the plan.
In a statement Saturday, House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass, said he knew from Treasury Secretary Paulson only that the intervention was intended "to ensure the continued and stable functioning" of the firms.
Fannie and Freddie have provided financing for 70% of mortgages originated in recent months, as purely private investors have fled the market.
Worries about the firms' ability to weather the housing crisis has pushed up their capital costs in recent weeks, causing mortgage rates to rise.
An intervention to stabilize the firms would help to keep mortgage rates down, helping potential homebuyers, argued Brian Gardner, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
The Treasury is widely expected to make whole investors in the firms' debt, which his held by central banks around the world. Treasury officials in recent conversations with such foreign investors assured them of the safety of their holdings, the Journal reported Friday.
Less certain is how the Treasury plan would affect the firms' stockholders. Under a conservator, as opposed to a receiver, shareholders are typically not wiped out, analysts said.
However, if the Treasury does not inject capital, the conservatorship might be a precursor to receivership, argued Wallison. In that case, the government might purchase the outstanding shares at a fraction of their market value.
Alternatively, the Treasury could recapitalize the firms via a new class of shares with priority over the existing shareholders. Then, it might shut off dividend payments to common and preferred shareholders to preserve capital in the firms.
Such an approach could help to limit taxpayer losses and "moral hazard" - the risk that a federal bailout would spur more risky behavior.
Yet it would send the firms' share prices plunging to near-zero values for at least the time being, Gerald Hanweck, a banking professor at George Mason University, said.
He predicted it would be at least a couple of years before the firms would stabilize if they were allowed to remain in their current form.
Many suspect the Treasury will attempt to limit the damage to the preferred shares, which are widely held by banks, insurance companies and retail investors. Fannie and Freddie together have nearly $36 billion in preferred shares outstanding.
Banks, already grappling with soaring mortgage defaults, have lobbied the Treasury in recent weeks to protect their holdings of preferred shares in a potential bailout of the firms.
"Between banks, insurance companies and retail investors, I'm sure the Treasury is walking very gingerly," Gardner said.
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Deciding what to do is tough. Probably won't get much on Monday as many will probably be looking to get out. Tough call.

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toothpick
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the only opportunity that will help retain the shareprice or help it fall less is if they cancel it off right.

there is near 0 chance of that happening as well, am i correct?

this is so painful.

if i dont sell early, it could turn in to a penny stock.

is anyone else holding fannie or freddie?

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jgrecoconstr
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It's down 20% in after hours. If I had it and it dropped that much in a couple hours I would get out. But that's just my opinion but it seems way to risky to stay in. I'm sure the key statement in that article is "but may ultimately prove a boon to shareholders if the companies rebound, analysts said." something to stop the panic.
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toothpick
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i'm just in total confusion right now.

what do i do!?!? do i cut my losses and just sell ASAP or hold it as a penny for 2 years?

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jgrecoconstr
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One you gotta calm down. If your this confused and upset because you may lose money then you should get out and stay out. No one can make a decision for you as to what to do. You decided to buy it, you have to decide to sell or stay it's that simple. If you can afford to lose all you invested then it's a no brainer let it sit. If you can't afford to lose it all then sell immediately and don't invest in volatile stocks. If you bought in at $4.78 you were up around 7% at $5.10. Settle for smaller gains next time they add up.
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wallymac
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Government plan for Fannie, Freddie to hit shareholders By John Poirier and Patrick Rucker
Sat Sep 6, 11:24 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government plans to take over Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) and all shareholders of the two mortgage giants will take a hit, an influential lawmaker said on Saturday.

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The move to take control of the two companies, expected to be announced on Sunday, could amount to the largest financial bailout in the nation's history, and is a bid to ward off further damage to a housing market in its deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

"I think all shareholders will be disadvantaged," Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, told Reuters.

"The government will act as the new management," implying the chief executives would be ousted, according to Frank, who spoke to U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson on Friday about the plan to put the companies into federal conservatorship to protect the interest of all parties.

An industry source said the two government-sponsored enterprises were sent a letter by their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, detailing shortcomings at the companies and explaining why the federal government was taking control.

The source said the letter suggested the companies, which own or guarantee almost half of the country's $12 trillion in outstanding home mortgage debt, should agree to the arrangement in order to avoid the more onerous step of being placed in a receivership in the interests of debtholders.

In a separate interview with The Washington Post, Frank said the government was expected to control the companies for at least a year as it considers whether they should remain government-run, or be restructured.

Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and the director of the companies' regulator, James Lockhart, met with the chief executives of the two companies on Friday to detail the plan.

Other sources said the boards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were briefed in meetings or conference calls on Saturday. Fannie Mae argued it was in a stronger capital position than Freddie Mac and had fulfilled a promise to raise funds, but there was no sign that argument gained traction.

The U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac declined to comment. Fannie Mae did not return calls seeking comment.

The planned intervention reflects concerns among U.S. officials that financial markets had begun to lose confidence in the companies, after they suffered combined losses of nearly $14 billion in the last four quarters.

The stocks of the two companies have fallen more than 90 percent in the past year and in recent months foreign investors have pared their holdings of the companies' securities.

In an emergency move in July, the U.S. Congress gave the Treasury the authority to extend an undetermined amount of credit to the companies or take a stake in them if they ran into trouble.

ECHOES ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Paulson discussed the plan with Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama on Friday and Republican candidate Sen. John McCain on Saturday.

"I think it has to be done," McCain said in an interview with the CBS program "Face the Nation" to air on Sunday. "There's got to be restructuring, there's got to be reorganization, and there's got to be some confidence that we've stopped this downward spiral."

Obama also agreed action was needed.

"Intervention was necessary," he said in an interview on the ABC program "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" that will also air on Sunday. But at a campaign stop in Terre Haute, Indiana, he said he was withholding final judgment until he could see details.

"We have to protect taxpayers and not bail out the shareholders and management," Obama said. McCain also said it should not be a "bailout of Wall Street speculators and irresponsible executives."

FINANCIAL MARKETS SAW IT COMING

Financial markets have come to expect that an investment by the U.S. Treasury would explicitly back the companies' $1.6 trillion in debt, but leave their shares nearly valueless.

The Washington Post reported on Saturday that the value of the company's common stock would be diluted but not wiped out, while the holdings of other securities, including company debt and preferred shares, would be protected by the government.

Separately, The New York Times said the executives and their boards would be replaced and shareholder value diluted, but the companies would be able to continue functioning with the government generally standing behind their debt.

Analysts at Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs have issued reports since mid-August saying the companies had plenty of capital to operate for the near term, and both have successfully rolled over debt in the meantime.

However, since August22, all the major credit rating agencies have cut their ratings on the companies' preferred stock on expectations that the share price declines had cut access to capital, increasing the need for emergency financial support.

While the companies never lost their access to capital markets, the biggest buyers of their debt had grown more cautious. Foreign central banks reduced their holdings of "federal agency" debt in custody at the Federal Reserve in the past week for the seventh week in a row.

With foreign demand now in question, "it sounds like they said, 'Why wait until there's a total panic? Let's go ahead and forestall it somewhat.' But there's still so much uncertainty of how investors will be treated," said James McGlynn, portfolio manager at Summit Investment Partners in Southlake, Texas.

(Additional reporting by Deborah Charles in Terre Haute, Indiana, Jeff Mason in Colorado Springs, Al Yoon in New York and Mark Felsenthal, David Lawder and Glenn Somerville in Washington; Writing by Tim Ahmann; Editing by Peter Cooney

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wallymac
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As JG stated it's your decision to make, no one can make the decision for you.

More than likely this stock will crash on Monday no telling where you will be able to get out. Also remember that if you put in a market order to sell, it probably won't execute right away.

I remember a quite a while back I had a market sell order in on KRY, it didn't execute until the stock had dropped almost 60% from where I placed the sell.

Like I said before tough call.

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toothpick
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after paulson speach it seems clear what to do.

will it be in the best of interest for everyone to sell their shares the first thing when the market opens?

or will there be a slight chance after the intial massive sell off and short coverings for the price to bounce back up (even slightly?)

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metal1
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according to the press releases the Treasury is taking an equity stake in the companies so the stock isn't going away yet.
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toothpick
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With regards to the latest news reports.

Will the common stock be still tradable when the market opens tomorrow? I just need a definite answer.

With regards to trading it (if possible) should I sell straight away or will there be a change of it bouncing back up when shorts cover (if this happens as well)

Kind regards,

[Were Down]

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toothpick
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what would your tatics be if you guys were in?

would you at least sell 1/2 at the open and see what happens during the day?

i plan to sell all of mine at the open but would like to hear what other peoples plans are with/without positions

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jgrecoconstr
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You seem way to anxious on this stock. For that reason alone you should get out.
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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by toothpick:
what would your tatics be if you guys were in?

would you at least sell 1/2 at the open and see what happens during the day?

i plan to sell all of mine at the open but would like to hear what other peoples plans are with/without positions

Get out and cut your losses... never fall in love with a stock... and just out of curiosity... knowing about the Mortgage Meltdown from at least last year why did you keep holding this one? Don't tell me that old Traders' enemy call HOPE was sitting on your shoulder whispering into your ear... whatever you learned about trading seems to appear to have been thrown out the window with this one...

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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toothpick
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anyone got streaming quotes? what is this likely to open at?
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toothpick
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Should I average down?

I am in at 660 *5.09

if i sell my XOM position i get around 2600.

If i buy FRE at $1.2x range, I can average my price down to 2.1

much more recoverable in the short term

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toothpick
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brillient, the website wont even load now cause theres too many people doing the same
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metal1
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LOL, looks like it saved you money, you can buy FRE at 1.04 now.
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toothpick
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Does anyone mind explaining this to me.

I have enough money to average my position down below the market price if I chose to and allow me to get out straight away. Why should I not?

I dont want to gain, but just want to get out without too big of a loss.

thanks in advance

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metal1
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you seem to be asking some really basic questions. i think you need to do more paper trading and reading. Mach usually has some good recommendations for reading material. there are 1000's of different stocks to trade, why keep trading ones that you don't understand? until you get much more comfortable with trading and handling gains and losses, stay out.
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wallymac
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quote:
Originally posted by toothpick:
Does anyone mind explaining this to me.

I have enough money to average my position down below the market price if I chose to and allow me to get out straight away. Why should I not?

I dont want to gain, but just want to get out without too big of a loss.

thanks in advance

If you decide to average down to recoup some of your losses, it is never a good idea to do it while the stock is dropping like FRE is. Just look at today. You were willing to average down around $2 if you had your losses would be greater since it's now trading around .78.

If you decide to average down you need to wait for the stock to hit bottom and show a confirmed reversal. Averaging down is always risky but even more so with a stock that is dropping like FRE is. Averaging down and looking for the bounce is definately not for inexperienced traders.

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toothpick
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under what circumstances will this stop trading. i've lost 3.4k and i want to throw up. i might need counciling if this stops trading and i lose all my money.
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jgrecoconstr
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Really, honestly ask yourself if you want others opinions. You seem to be wanting that and then not listening. Several people suggested you get out but you keep ignoring them.
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SoAngel
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jgrecoconstr- I couldn't agree more. I really feel that toothpick is simply just wanting someone to respond with whatever it is that he wants to hear.

The advice has been made clear at this point, I believe.

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jgrecoconstr
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OK Angel with that being said here's my thoughts. I haven't really looked at this stock or done any research. I don't at this time know if it is even trading but if it is trading at 77 cents then I would watch it the next couple days and atleast put a grand on it if it stays in this range. There's no way after they straighten up that this stock would not give an attractive return.
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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by jgrecoconstr:
Really, honestly ask yourself if you want others opinions. You seem to be wanting that and then not listening. Several people suggested you get out but you keep ignoring them.

Yah, he totally ignored my advice that is for sure... here's another tip/advice... if your a beginner NEVER AVERAGE DOWN!!!!! Hell, never Average down even if you aren't a beginner... when you want to buy a stock that is going down you wait for it to bottom out and "CONFIRM" it has hit rock bottom and will recover... not buy into it as it's going down... that's like trying to lasso the Titanic as it's sinking lol

Here's some quotes from a NY Post article today on Freddie & Fannie (http://www.nypost.com/seven/09082008/news/regionalnews/freddie__fannie_rescued_ 128000.htm):

"The big losers, besides taxpayers, will be stockholders in the government-sponsored public companies.

Shareholders are expected to be completely wiped out."


"Among the biggest stockholders in Fannie and Freddie are top mutual-funds companies, including Legg Mason, Vanguard and Fidelity, which manage money for pension funds, individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans.

Anyone holding a mutual fund that invested in either mortgage company has cause to worry, experts said.

Other major institutional shareholders in Fannie and Freddie include Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and UBS. "


"US Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan) had little sympathy for shareholders who will lose their entire investment.

"They risked their money like any other investment, and if this were a normal company, it would go bankrupt," he said.

In fact, the plan is very much like a bankruptcy - holders of common stock will get nothing, bondholders are protected, and the companies will continue to do business under new management.

If there's any money left, holders of preferred stock will get first dibs, but analysts predict they, too, will be cleaned out. "


"Kass and his hedge fund are among the big winners.

They anticipated the disaster, and had been betting the two companies' stocks would fall by selling them short"


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Machiavelli
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My advice... cut your losses even if it's a big loss... and use what's left to put in a better stock... when you recover some or all of your losses from a different stock you will feel better... also remember ALWAYS PUT A STOP/LOSS as insurance in case something like this happens...

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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R1 Man
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quote:
Originally posted by toothpick:
under what circumstances will this stop trading. i've lost 3.4k and i want to throw up. i might need counciling if this stops trading and i lose all my money.

You think 3.4k is bad.....that isn't nothing compaired to what I have lost in the past. I lost $17,900 on KM when they cancelled their stock. Lost $11,500 on Hayes Lemmerz when they cancelled their stock.

This week, I dropped the ball and took a $8,900 hit. So your $3,400 hit isn't really that bad is it?

BTW, the 17.9k and 11.5k loss was all gains so wasn't too upset.

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metal1
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to some people 3400 is alot of money. we don't need to hear about how much you are making or losing. that's not the point of the thread.


quote:
Originally posted by R1 Man:
quote:
Originally posted by toothpick:
under what circumstances will this stop trading. i've lost 3.4k and i want to throw up. i might need counciling if this stops trading and i lose all my money.

You think 3.4k is bad.....that isn't nothing compaired to what I have lost in the past. I lost $17,900 on KM when they cancelled their stock. Lost $11,500 on Hayes Lemmerz when they cancelled their stock.


This week, I dropped the ball and took a $8,900 hit. So your $3,400 hit isn't really that bad is it?

BTW, the 17.9k and 11.5k loss was all gains so wasn't too upset.


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toothpick
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few more cents and i have broken even. i will then get out, study and invest properly instead of gamble
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PCola77
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Congrats. Though typically holding and hoping is what gets people killed. You were down about 80% at one point and held on. VERY rarely does that work out this well. Just make sure to learn from it.
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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by toothpick:
few more cents and i have broken even. i will then get out, study and invest properly instead of gamble

It's ok if you want to be a trader but just better to do it in the Big Boards then in PennyLand...

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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PCola77
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I hope he got out today and didn't get greedy and get burned by that 50% drop in 30seconds a little while ago...
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
toothpick
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hi all. yes i got out today.

i averaged down to 2.02.

i sold half at 2.40 and then the remaining at 2.80

i was tempted to get back in, i even set a limit buy at 1.40, but i left work and cancelled it.

thank god eh? after hours looks good though.

what are you views on the bailout tomz? this will go crazy if it happens.

i dont think they will disappoint the world.

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Machiavelli
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Good thing you got out... now stay away from such stocks lol trade in the big boards.. you'll see your bankroll grow...

--------------------
Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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