Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
-------------------- GSUS - Eternal 100 Bagger! HCPC - my favorite potential into December
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wow weatherbill that is some reality slap! Thank you very much for posting it! I have my 14yr old step son reading it now! Knowing the future means the ability to invest in the right areas. Sounds like the situation is gonna come to a major head in the next few years with the gas and oil prices we see today, being relativly mild! Most are probably assuming that oil prices are just taking there normal rise with a lower price to follow! A rude awakening is in store for us all!
Rick
-------------------- Nothing moves a sub like news!!!
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In the 1980s, at a "model town" called The Woodlands (near Houston), Amory Lovins won a blind contest sponsored by Mitchell Energy (big Houston oil, tied in to the major politicos). At a big-oil sponsored symposium, Amory would not have won anything if it were not a blind contest: see Rocky Mountain Institute ( http://www.rmi.org/ ).
Amory is THE architect of appropriate technology. In his winning paper? He showed indisputiably that utilities would make more money providing low-interest loans to its customers for "weather-stripping" and energy-efficient retrofits than they would bby building new power plants. Nuclear, coal, hydro--no difference.
Get this--did not touch much on new construction at all, as I remember. (And, yes, I was there.)The paper was so overwhelmingly conclusive, even the oil boyz were forced to recognize its brilliance.
Well.
He got the prize, as he should--yet Texas Utilities has never offered me a low-cost loan to make my house more energy efficient.
Ok, I'm rounding the corner to my point.
Yes, the oil problem is bad. I think, as posted elsewhere, whichever party wants the next election should seize the day and offer a "coupon/discount" program for families who are being ravaged by the jump.
However...
All this gloom and doom is merely Cheney/Bush et al justifying their profits.
We can slash our dependence on oil. Amory thought of merely one program to do so--25 years ago...
As others from Texas on this board will attest--and some will call me crazy, I'm sure, lol--we have some pretty drastic summer heat.
Yet, except for the very worst summers, I barely use air conditioning. Why? My pop built this house on rudimentary desgin principles that were accessible even in the early 50s. It was designed to be cooled via a swamp cooler in conjunction with an attic fan. Still works...would work even better if retrofitted with some of the innovations hatched since then.
Cheney--oil guy--predicts whatever's he's predicting...CYA, etc... Yet big oil's poltical influence is why we're in a mess. They shoulda realized decades ago they were in the energy business. If so, we'd all be living in homes that are at leasted supplemented by renewable energy.
In the "solar" southwest, for example, had utilities taken Amory's suggestion, my Dad's primitve-but-effective attempts to use the lay of the land and block-sun-in-summer, grab-sun-in-winter would have long ago been updated with a roof that makes electricity.
I hope this "peak oil" deal scares the crap out of "them." Don't let it scare it you. There's oppurtunity for change--and great companies to invest in that will shepherd that change...
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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I can't wait until oil runs out. Good riddance! Plenty of stuff we can do without it.
I'd like to point out, however, that all the current estimates are based on our current, fairly old technologies.
We only pull out about 1/2 of the oil in any particular well? 1/4 is taken out straight, the next 1/4 needs to be paired with water to extract, and the remaining 50% is just left there. So.... as soon as we run out of oil, we'll still have more.
Personally, I can't wait to lose the dependance on foreign oil. If I had tons of land, I'd put up a windmill.
-------------------- Long term investments are simply day trades that didn't work. (except QBID :P)
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BuyTex, I take it your a liberal supportin', oil is horrible guy and have a problem with someone making profits? From everything I read, yes we are having a much harder time finding easy to extract Oil & Gas; however the main problem as I understand it, is so many refineries are having problems right now and having to shut down plants for repair. Not to mention current refining capacity is somewhere near 98%. Also, a lot of the price of oil is driven on fear becuase we have to UNFORTUNATELY import it from not so friendly countries. There is quite a bit of crude on the market, it is just hard to refine it right now. Do you know the US has not built a new Refinery in 20+ years because of crazy stringent laws. Look at California and all the BS additives they have to add to there gasoline because of crazy nonsense laws. Additionally, you guys see the price of gas on the news in other countries at absurd prices, Newsflash, most of that price is TAXES. Taxes created most likely by people who dont like Oil.
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I find it funny that someone actually thinks they or someone knows how much oil is in the earth. Some think that for some reason oil is not actually made by the earth? So someday we will run out of molten lava and the earth will implode?
So, the only way you can believe in peak oil is to ..
1. Believe the earth can only "make" so much oil, which it made thousands of years ago. And it's not making anymore for some reason, or to know how fast it makes it..
2. Actually think you can figure out how much there was in the first place and how much of that has been used.. Which of course is, impossible.
Ask the russians about Deep oil rigs. They've found oil where they thought the well was "dry".
There's 3 problems with Oil..
1. Refining oil fast enough and meet the regulations for refining it is causing the price to go up, not the amount produced.
2. It's expensive to dig deeper wells & to refine it.
3. The State and Federal Government make so much frickin money off every gallon of gas it's ridiculous.
Another point..
Gas is like video games.. The system (the car) doesn't make much money.. the Games (the GAS) is wherethe real money is made.
The Automobile manufacturers, the oil companies the government all play the game together and swim in the lakes of money they make off of everyone and they laugh even more when they see people buying Suburbans that get 12/MPG .
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Lushka you really show your ignorace in making a statement like this---> <<I can't wait until oil runs out. Good riddance! Plenty of stuff we can do without it.>>
You obviously dont understand that unless you live in a wooden shack deep in the woods, almost everything you use and do including that little keyboard you type on wouldn't have NOT been possible had it not been for that oil you hate so much. Oil makes the life we live happen: thru plastic, energy, lubricants, fertilizer, and countless other things. As far as putting up windfarms, thats not the answer, that kills more wildlife and causes such an ugly landscape its not funny. There is a lot more to oil than energy. I suggest before you make comments on which you have absolutely no clue, you do a wee bit of research....Thanks!
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quote:Originally posted by Bachstocks1: BuyTex, I take it your a liberal supportin', oil is horrible guy and have a problem with someone making profits? From everything I read, yes we are having a much harder time finding easy to extract Oil & Gas; however the main problem as I understand it, is so many refineries are having problems right now and having to shut down plants for repair. Not to mention current refining capacity is somewhere near 98%. Also, a lot of the price of oil is driven on fear becuase we have to UNFORTUNATELY import it from not so friendly countries. There is quite a bit of crude on the market, it is just hard to refine it right now. Do you know the US has not built a new Refinery in 20+ years because of crazy stringent laws. Look at California and all the BS additives they have to add to there gasoline because of crazy nonsense laws. Additionally, you guys see the price of gas on the news in other countries at absurd prices, Newsflash, most of that price is TAXES. Taxes created most likely by people who dont like Oil.
lol, Bach, actually I was a management consultant for ARCO Oil & Gas. Built the reference system for their System & Programming department. That's the folks who coded every line for every major program they ran, from accounting on the Alaska pipeline to tracking negotiations via fieldmen rounding up new plays.
Sorry, no diletante, here.
ask a better question
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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I've been planning for this for some time now. The majority of this countries population lives in the large cities (including me). What will life in those cities be like in 20+ years when the oil situation is really dire? It will be impossible for those people to be self-suficient. You can't grow crops on unused asphault. That is why I started investing in stocks in the first place. I need to secure enough money to move my family to the country in order to put myself and my children in a position to not only live a happy life but quite frankly, survive.
-------------------- All of my posts are based on my opinion. My opinions are based on the info available to me at any given point in time. Do your own DD and see if you concur.
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Thanks Tex. If there are only a handful of us here that are facing the reality of the situation...oh well. I'm not going to try to hammer reality into anyone's head. If they want to make the future hard on themselves because of a lack of planning and foresight, that is their problem. I'm not going to do my children a disservice by burrying my head in the sand. Tex, I'm glad to see you have a firm grip on reality too.
-------------------- All of my posts are based on my opinion. My opinions are based on the info available to me at any given point in time. Do your own DD and see if you concur.
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BuyTex, sorry for coming across a little rude, just frustrated. I realize the problem is real and pressing, just dont like it when people like that other guy come on and say off the wall stuff like he did.
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One website I highly recommend is w www .wealthdaily.net they have constantly updated articles about peak oil and the current energy situation around the globe. I usually find it interesting.
quote:Originally posted by Bachstocks1: BuyTex, sorry for coming across a little rude, just frustrated. I realize the problem is real and pressing, just dont like it when people like that other guy come on and say off the wall stuff like he did.
oh...lushka? ya, be eating .22 caliber bullets when could be dining on food from the garden...
-------------------- Nashoba Holba Chepulechi Adventures in microcapitalism...
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Contrary to a popular belief, dead dinosaurs do NOT turn into oil. Since almost all oil comes from rocks that were formed underwater, floating ocean life (tiny, tiny creatures known as diatoms, foraminifera, and radiolaria - all just as small as a grain of sand) that settle to the bottom of the sea is what eventually turns into oil. How could something so small give us so much oil? Well, it takes many thousands of years (and millions of dead critters) to form thick deposits of organic-rich sludge at the bottom of the ocean.But how does this sludge turn into oil?
Given many thousands of years, a stack of mud and organic remains many kilometers thick may pile up on the sea floor, especially in nutrient-rich waters. Given enough time, the overlying sediments that are constantly being deposited will bury these organic remains and mud so deeply that they will eventually be turned into solid rock. It is believed that high heat and intense pressure help along various chemical reactions, transforming the soft parts of ancient organisms found in the deep-sea sludge into oil and natural gas. At this point, this ooze at the bottom of the ocean turns into source rock.
All the oil created by the source rock won't be useful unless it winds up being stored in an easily accessible container, a rock that has room to "suck it up". A reservoir rock is a place that oil migrates to and is held underground. A sandstone has plenty of room inside itself to trap oil, just like a sponge has room inside of itself to soak up spills in your kitchen. It is for this reason that sandstones are the most common reservoir rocks. Limestones and dolostones, some of which are the skeletal remains of ancient coral reefs, are other examples of reservoir rocks.
Beneath the earth's surface, oil will ooze through rocks if there is enough space between them, but this oil will not accumulate into large quantities unless something traps it in a particular place. There are a variety of geologic traps, which themselves can be broken into categories:
It is important to remember that oil is not all by itself in some sort of underground cave, but is, instead, contained within solid rock - which has enough room within it to actually soak up (or become soaked in, however you look at it) oil.
Because of the great amount of pressure thousands of feet beneath the earth's surface, oil tries to move to areas of less pressure. If it is allowed, it will move upwards until it is above ground. This is what happens at oil seeps (once common in Pennsylvania, California, Texas and Louisiana, among other places). While these seeps tell us there is oil below ground, it also tells us that much oil has already escaped, and it may mean that there isn't much left to find. Unlike a reservoir rock, which acts like a sponge, trap rocks act like walls and ceilings, and will not allow fluids to move through. The most common trap rock is shale, which, when compared to many sandstones, has very little room inside for fluids (oil, for example) to move through it.
Though trap rocks block oil from moving through them, they don't always block oil from moving around them. For a trap rock to do its job, we need some kind of geologic trap
-------------------- Making money... one penny at a time
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My thoughts are this. I live in Wext Texas. My town is population 3000. Just about everyone in this town works for the school or an oil company. I am not in the oil business (wish I were) but am involved with MANY people who are. I think this $67 dollar a barrel oil is a big crock of you know what. We go into a war so BOY there is a good reason to stick it to em. They say they have to employee more security in fear of terrorist. How many people did they hire..China? Listen to the news...gas went up due to a fear that a terror attack might occur??What?? How about raise it if one actually does. I own the town D.Q. Why don't I raise my burger to $5 because we might have mad cow..just in case ya know. NOW the reason I say it is bull,,, I have had MANY of my oil patch buddies (independents and big guys) tell me that they can make a good profit at 18 to 20 dollars a barrel...By the way, they are all doing quite well around here. Shame to see them have it so rough.
Side note: I can't even begin to tell you how many plugged wells there are around here because they fell to only 8 to 10 barrels a day. What a shame. Give me just one! I think we all need to march to DC and demand something be done.
-------------------- It's only money..We'll make more tomorrow!
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Does anyone know of any companies in the .pk which supply the big oil companies with the machinery, tools, parts, pipes, nuts, bolts etc......
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By: 1greeneyedhawk 16 Aug 2005, 11:56 PM EDT Msg. 21851 of 21851
AMEP-American Energy Production
NG continues to make new record highs. Now over $10 for: Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. DrillBit's projections of double digits for NG across the board is becoming a reality. These record NG and Oil prices are helping AMEP to become profitable in a considerable way. CB could not have picked a better time in history to bring a start up Oil & NG company to profitability. Barnett Shale NG wells produce 20-30 years or more per the independent DD. AMEP has 7,000 acres over a 100% blanket covering of the highly prolific Barnett Shale formation. AMEP is very fortunate to also have high grade oil flowing out of it's Barnett wells. AMEP's wholly owned Bend Arch will next be drilling it's first two horizontal wells in the Barnett, AMEP will have 100% of the NWI. Wholly owned OAG will add three more. The next two horizontals will likely make AMEP profitable, if you consider that these horizontal wells should produce a nice multiple of the vertical Nash 1-c well just completed in the Barnett. Nash 1-c results: "At today's market price of $60.00/barrel for oil and $8.00/mcf of natural gas this would be approximately $1600.00/day or $48,000.00/month or $570,000.00/year gross revenue." GL all AMEP longs. ... %^ greeneyedhawk
Commodity Futures Price Quotes For NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Commodity market prices and quotes are updated continuously during market hours. (Price quotes for NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas delayed at least 30 minutes as per exchange requirements)
Month Click for chart Session Pr.Day Options Open High Low Last Time Sett Chg Vol Ticks Sett OpInt Sep 05 9.54 9.88 9.44 9.76 14:47 9.752 +0.212 25775 39255 9.54 58207 Call Put Oct 05 9.61 9.88 9.461 9.78 14:46 9.779 +0.218 16065 9480 9.561 87978 Call Put Nov 05 9.95 10.22 9.84 10.12 14:45 10.124 +0.191 4637 3762 9.933 53856 Call Put Dec 05 10.32 10.55 10.225 10.5 14:27 10.479 +0.177 3650 3338 10.302 35352 Call Put Jan 06 10.59 10.81 10.495 10.71 14:25 10.734 +0.166 2384 3452 10.568 32925 Call Put Feb 06 10.57 10.73 10.46 10.67 14:47 10.699 +0.161 1210 1556 10.538 20419 Call Put Mar 06 10.32 10.53 10.235 10.43 14:29 10.463 +0.161 4733 1939 10.302 40537 Call Put Apr 06 8.81 8.95 8.77 8.83 14:21 8.863 +0.091 2265 1175 8.772 20785 Call Put May 06 8.7 8.7 8.65 8.65 14:28 8.631 +0.084 794 692 8.547 20303 Call Put Jun 06 8.73 8.73 8.53 8.68 14:28 8.662 +0.084 18 545 8.578 7266 Call Put Jul 06 8.77 8.77 8.57 8.73 14:29 8.706 +0.083 7 39 8.623 12055 Call Put Aug 06 8.81 8.81 8.76 8.76 14:28 8.745 +0.083 93 80 8.662 10477 Call Put Sep 06 8.79 8.79 8.71 8.75 14:01 8.72 +0.08 11 278 8.64 9006 Call Put Oct 06 8.72 8.81 8.69 8.71 14:22 8.745 +0.078 825 292 8.667 19512 Call Put Nov 06 9.18 9.18 9.06 9.07 13:05 9.105 +0.078 66 171 9.027 9182 Call Put Dec 06 9.46 9.46 9.46 9.46 10:53 9.445 +0.083 175 174 9.362 9163 Call Put Jan 07 9.73 9.73 9.655 9.655 14:24 9.695 +0.088 39 103 9.607 10040 Call Put Feb 07 - 9.635 9.7 9.58 11:10 9.68 +0.088 0 51 9.592 2926 Call Put Mar 07 9.5 9.5 9.48 9.48 13:23 9.495 +0.088 200 2 9.407 7478 Call Put Jun 07 7.977 7.977 7.977 7.977 11:49 8.01 +0.063 0 54 7.947 2355 Call Put Dec 07 - - - 8.8 - 8.8 +0.058 0 27 8.742 4171 Call Put
quote:Originally posted by DQ.: My thoughts are this. I live in Wext Texas. My town is population 3000. Just about everyone in this town works for the school or an oil company. I am not in the oil business (wish I were) but am involved with MANY people who are. I think this $67 dollar a barrel oil is a big crock of you know what. We go into a war so BOY there is a good reason to stick it to em. They say they have to employee more security in fear of terrorist. How many people did they hire..China? Listen to the news...gas went up due to a fear that a terror attack might occur??What?? How about raise it if one actually does. I own the town D.Q. Why don't I raise my burger to $5 because we might have mad cow..just in case ya know. NOW the reason I say it is bull,,, I have had MANY of my oil patch buddies (independents and big guys) tell me that they can make a good profit at 18 to 20 dollars a barrel...By the way, they are all doing quite well around here. Shame to see them have it so rough.
Side note: I can't even begin to tell you how many plugged wells there are around here because they fell to only 8 to 10 barrels a day. What a shame. Give me just one! I think we all need to march to DC and demand something be done.
DQ,
I couldn't have said it any better myself! There are people out there that are not as blessed as we are. Stressed about that fill up or maybee 1/2 or 1/4 tank because they have to put food in front of their children as well. I am so ashamed of our government for the disregard of the American people. Spending over 100 billion dollars in Iraq and we have people starving and struggling right here at home. Priceing fuel based on asssumption is nothing short of criminal. Our government allows theives to practice their games right out in the open and does little or nothing to stop them.
I'm so sick of this political crap George! Do what's right not what your wealthy supporters want to hear!
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It takes my DQ minimum wage employees nearly 1/2 their check to buy a tank. Most on this board are better off than them. Can you imagine you or I having to pay 3 or 4 hundred bucks for a tank??? 60 per tank is bad enough for me.
-------------------- It's only money..We'll make more tomorrow!
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quote:Originally posted by DQ.: It takes my DQ minimum wage employees nearly 1/2 their check to buy a tank. Most on this board are better off than them. Can you imagine you or I having to pay 3 or 4 hundred bucks for a tank??? 60 per tank is bad enough for me.
My son turned 16 last year and holds a part time job at a local carwash. The only vehichle I had for him was an old 89' suburban [ oh ya big v8 ]. I feel terrible that he has to use more than half of his check to keep mobile.
I worry most about the children's future!!
-------------------- "Every action has a reaction"
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You mean to tell me that you are complaining about the "wealthy" poor of America not being babied by the government? Check out some of the third-world countries. Few people there have a car let alone a decent job. I think you've sorely misplaced the government's role in America. Granted, that's no excuse for those in power, but each of us puts ourselves in the position we are in. There are so many ways to improve one's financial position in America, it's just not even worth debating.
-------------------- May your trading build your character as well as your portfolio.
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BUY AMERICAN--AMEP--Oil Rises on Drop in Gasoline Inventory 08.17.2005, 10:58 AM Forbes
Crude-oil futures rose Wednesday after U.S. petroleum data showed drivers' strong demand for fuel cut into gasoline supplies, although crude stocks rose.
Crude oil inventories grew by 300,000 barrels last week to 321.1 million barrels, or 11 percent above year-ago levels, according to U.S. Department of Energy data released Wednesday.
But the nation's supply of gasoline fell by 5 million barrels, putting inventories at 198.1 million barrels, or 12 percent below last year.
Analysts had been expecting a rise in both crude and gasoline stocks.
The Department of Energy said that over the past four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.5 million barrels a day, 1.5 percent above year-ago levels.
Front-month September crude futures rose 22 cents to 66.30 in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude futures hit a record peak of $67.10 a barrel in trading Friday.
Heating oil rose less than a cent to $1.8710 a gallon in morning trading, while gasoline rose more than a cent to $1.9950.
On London's International Petroleum Exchange, October Brent crude rose 13 cents to $65.21 a barrel.
Distillate fuel supply, which includes heating oil, rose by 1.2 million barrels to 131.1 million barrels, or 5 percent above year-ago levels, according to the weekly petroleum data.
U.S. refiners operated at 93.5 percent of capacity last week, a slight decline from 95 percent the week before.
Oil traders remained jittery Wednesday over the possibility of further refinery disruptions in the United States, Iran's nuclear showdown and news that protesters had shut down an oil pipeline in Ecuador.
"We just have to get used to the probability that oil is trading in a much higher range and for much longer than previously expected, and an upper price ceiling is almost impossible to determine at this moment," said Alex Scott, oil analyst at Seven Investment Management in London.
Analysts have blamed rising demand in the United States and China for supply tightness, as excess capacity shrinks to levels that could trouble markets in the event of a major outage.
A monthly report released Wednesday by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said the pace of oil demand is expected to rebound next year, supporting long-term bullish arguments.
"Average world oil demand for 2006 is projected to grow by 1.6 million barrels a day or 1.9 percent to average 85.2 million barrels a day," the report said. "This slightly higher forecast is due to the slightly more optimistic view of the world economy for the coming year."
Prices are now more than 40 percent higher than a year ago, when a furious rally began on troubles and outages in key producers Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
In recent weeks, oil prices have surged to new highs after a stream of U.S. refinery outages.
In Ecuador, protesters halted operations Sunday at a major oil pipeline in the Amazon basin, demanding the state-owned Petroecuador hire more locals and pay higher wages.
A Petroecuador official said more than 50,000 barrels a day has been lost so far - a relatively tiny figure compared to the global oil market, but still enough to unsettle an already-jittery market.
Also, protesting Nigerian villagers forced the closure of a Royal Dutch Shell PLC oil-pumping facility, cutting production by 10,000 barrels a day, company officials and village leaders said Wednesday. The protesters were angered over Shell's compensation offer to villagers for environmental damage from a 2003 oil spill and fire.
quote:Originally posted by Thorn: You mean to tell me that you are complaining about the "wealthy" poor of America not being babied by the government? Check out some of the third-world countries. Few people there have a car let alone a decent job. I think you've sorely misplaced the government's role in America. Granted, that's no excuse for those in power, but each of us puts ourselves in the position we are in. There are so many ways to improve one's financial position in America, it's just not even worth debating.
Please define "WEALTHY" poor in America! Are talking about the 19K or less per year? IS that what you live on today with 2-4 chilfren in your care? If you dont then break down the numbers and see what 19k will get you per annume!
Every increase in taxes, fuel, and like can throw these individuals annual budget out the window. You are correct that we create some of our own situations, but spending 130 bill in a foreign country with no resolution when our people are starving is worhtless. I do believe and support missions accross the world, and if we were spending billions to help economic distressed countrys of the world and feeding children I would be all for it.
Oh yes and please tell me what the Governments role is today!
-------------------- "Every action has a reaction"
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