posted
I've been trading for awhile and have made some decent money. (thanks to some of you) Never-the less, I've been having one BIG problem...
Question: when you see a nice run happening similar to a couple of stocks (SSTY or IGTN) do you: (a) Let it pass knowing these things happen all the time? (b) Throw your money at it and try to catch some of the action? (c) (d)....etc...
I'm just trying to fix a bad trend I seem to be on. (getting burnt on the tail end of nice runs)
Any comments are welcome. Thanks.
-------------------- speak from your heart, invest from experience... Posts: 261 | From: Dallas | Registered: May 2005
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posted
The problem with most run-ups is that they are being front loaded by those who present them and someone will always pay the price at the top as the front-loaders take there profit.
If a stock is in a full fledged run when you find it or when you are told about it. The risk of getting caught at the top is very high!
You should be watching the stocks that you like or have some confidence in and buying ahead of the front-loaders and then letting them do there thing for your benifit.
I'm buying into USXP at this time! Why? because its been beat to chit and its consolidating at what I see as a base level. I've been watching the front loaders gathering it up for a week now.
Theres a 60m deal on the table and when the PR comes down I'll be sitting back letting those same front-loaders take it up for me, while I'm getting out at a profit.
Last man holding the hot stock gets burned!
The above is all just my opinion!
Rick
PS: Watch for anouncements of an LOI then instead of buying the stock let it run up and as all stocks do, it will come back down prior to the closing of the acquisition. Most acquisitions take 1-2-3 months if not more and if you have the stock on your radar during this time you will find plenty of bargain days to pick it up! Day traders will take the lose to move on to the next hot stock.
Then when the closing is complete the PR and the added value to the company will take the stock back up again. Leaving you in the green and not stuck at the top in the red.
I have found that the PR that came out a month or so ago is usualy more profitable than the one that came out today, unless I'm buying into the PR of today the second it comes out for a quick pop!
Just food for thought!
Posts: 3346 | From: Leominster,MA,US | Registered: Jul 2003
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posted
rickpic brought out some very valid points in this thread and sixela brought out some valid points in other threads too. Jumping on the tail of a 400-500% run is very risky indeed.
Everyone is in this for a profit and if you follow the one common thing that all the revered masters and "most-respected" members of all the stock boards do on a consistent basis in these monster run scenarios, you will see that they get out early. That doesn't happen all of the time, but it does happen most of the time.
Read up on all these threads all over the place and you will notice a pattern emerging. The ones who have profited the most on a consistent basis, the ones whom everyone else follows, the ones no one dares call a basher regardless of what they have to say about a stock or situation - they almost always get off on pages 1 through five. The rest, they stay on to chat amongst themselves for a hundred more pages, then a hundred more, then six threads more. Months, years pass by and, while they're chatting up a storm, those "revered masters" who led them there in the first place and who got off on page three of the original thread, they have started a hundred more threads in the mean time and gotten off just as fast or even faster and have consistently made money along the way.
Remember...
1. Do not fall in love with a stock 2. Do not fall in love with a crowd who are in love with a stock 3. Do not hang on to a sinking stock. Yes, it may rise again one day, but you could have made up for the loss a hundred times over in that time. 4. Decide what you are comfortable with - being a daytrader, or being a conservative "long" 5. Do not worry about getting called a basher every now and again, when some longs disagree with you. It's YOUR money. 5. Do not fall in love with a stock
above all...
6. Love the game! Have fun!
All my opinion, of course. Practice at your own risk.
-------------------- Just my rusty opinion. Your own Due Diligence is KEY! Posts: 102 | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
I'll expand more on your original question. If we take the Friday Phenomenon known as SSTY, for example, I hope that the company starts pumping out PRs like there's no tomorrow. That is the only way I see the pps staying where it is. Otherwise, I expect a few swings on Monday, then a steady decline, as people take their profits and go play elsewhere. People, many people, are in this for the action. Without PRs they will get very bored. See, this is where NWPO is ahead of the game. PRs on a very consistent basis.
-------------------- Just my rusty opinion. Your own Due Diligence is KEY! Posts: 102 | Registered: Jul 2005
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SSTY will go over .015 this week by Friday, it might take a big drop off on Monday but by the end of the week it will be above or at least crossed the .015
NWPO has been putting out PR's daily, don't expect it slow down this wek, big news coming this week.
Posts: 2362 | From: BEENEVERYWHERE | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
Check the chart to see what the previous days were like...quickly see if the RSI looks good..IF keep your eye on the L2's and go for it if it looks good.....Get in and get out! Don't get greedy and you'll make bank.
Good luck...
-------------------- Lil,
Dont LOSE more than you can afford to invest....LOL
I'm buying low and selling into the run... Posts: 8024 | From: Joisey....see attitude above | Registered: Jan 2004
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posted
Was just going to say that Lil, lol. A good indicator on whether its a group run that is front loaded and a natural run is RSI. Not that it always works but can help. Supported runs that are market driven and not group driven usually have a RSI below 30 to start with. When the RSI is that low it means the stock was way oversold and has market pressure to force a increase in value. If the RSI was in mid 30 or higher then it maybe is a group pick. Of course news contributed to a run also.
Second part to looking at RSI. Now during the run one thing I look for is if the RSI crosses 50. This is a good sign that the run will continue and you still have time to get in. But once it hits 70 then its in a overbought situation and usually is a time to sell. It may still run some but it becomes a lot higher risk at that point.
Of course there are a lot of other keys but I found that one during a run is very helpful. But also as some have stated too, look at the board for certain people. You will notice some are almost always in on a hype (group) run. They either start the thread or a newbie will and they back them up. If you watch closely they are not hard to find at all. Also read the thread for keys, one of which is like Lil said, heavy supporters that stop posting. Someone that cheered it on and just quit. Usually if someones says its a group pick, it is. They will usually be attacked for saying it too.
Well, there is more but heres a start. Many say penny's don't follow charts. I say many don't learn what to look for. The main reason a stock won't follow a chart is dilution. If someone points dilution out then run. They are usually called a basher but I have found that so called bashers tend to be more right then the ones pumping it too hard.
And real important, if you follow runs level II's are very helpful. If its something you really like to do a lot then investing in level II's can make the difference. It is just so much easier to see where the MM's are going with the price and where they are lining up at.
quote:Originally posted by lilpennypincher: Check the chart to see what the previous days were like...quickly see if the RSI looks good..IF keep your eye on the L2's and go for it if it looks good.....Get in and get out! Don't get greedy and you'll make bank.
Good luck...
[ July 31, 2005, 10:54: Message edited by: Ric ]
-------------------- Invest with your brain not with your heart. Posts: 4405 | From: Bristol, Tn, USA | Registered: Aug 2004
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