posted
ERHC.OB is a stock that has gone from .17 to .80 in less than a year. BIG-T, had to start a new thread. Sao Tome comes out with an announcement right before Monday's bell that should knock this stock to $1. The announcement is just coming a little later than we thought. This is the official announcement of Sao Tome saying what % erhc gets in the joint developement zone.
Always remember that investing is risky and to be a cautious invester.
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Manofstocks a little down over events of the week but next week could be killer. I have more problems with timing this stock than any other I have followed for a long time. That said the wait should be worth it! And I shook my piggybank and bought 500 more shares today.
Take off postponed one week. All passengers please strap in and prepare for blast off.
posted
Waiting for news again. My OPINION has not changed that this is good stock with huge potential in earnings and SP longterm and I still see it moving up to year high plus when news is announced in 2 to 3 weeks.
What will it do the rest of this week? I have no idea! Logically you would say it has to have bottemed out but I thought that yesterday and went down 19% today. Perhaps it hadnt learned how to flap its wings yet and we expected it to soar. If nothing else it is giving a few more latecomers a chance to get in. GIGATT
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I am poised and confident that this stock will fly out of the roof. I also thought it had bottomed out, but remember...If it can drop that quick, it can fly even quicker. The bottom line is, erhc has to announce who they are joint venturing with to drill for oil in each of their six blocks, they also have to do test drilling in each block. Most likely it could be an oil Giant they JV with, since there are so many companies who want a stake in ERHC's blocks (especially block 2, which has the most projected oil.) Of course this is after the official announcement of Sao tome announcing the official stakes in each block (With/in 3 wks). Geologists believe there is $4 billion dollars worth of oil in the joint developement zone. when they start striking oil, they'll gain mass profit. I think I'd buy this stock at any price before drilling. But that would only be my opinion and no body else's. Doesn't anybody else have an opinion. All I can say is do your research and see what you can find out. I'm hoping to walk away as a champion!
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One correction there Man. It is not 4 bill dollars but 4 billion barrels. You need to multiply that by price per barrel (say about $30-$34 right now) take 6-8 dollars away p/b for producing it and then divide by half which is what country gets. To make it easy say $30 x 4B is $120,000,000,000 - 32,000,000,000 production cost be 88,000,000,000 divided by 2 would be approxamately 44 billion ERHC's share of JDZ.
Assume only half estimated is found, about 22bil but then you have there rights in EEZ which are better. I dont know how much its worth but I like the odds the company is worth more than 300 or 400 million market cap, EVEN IF estimates way off or oil comes back down to $20 per barrel (which odds are against).
[This message has been edited by BigT1 (edited April 28, 2004).]
[This message has been edited by BigT1 (edited April 28, 2004).]
SAO TOME, Sao Tome and Principe (AP)--Sao Tome and Nigeria have sold an offshore oil field they jointly own to ExxonMobil (XOM) and ChevronTexaco (CVX) but eight other fields the two countries put on auction last year weren't awarded because the bids were incomplete, Sao Tome President Fradique de Menezes said Thursday.
Menezes said the two West African countries, which share exploration rights in an area of the Gulf of Guinea, received a signature bonus of $123 million from the two oil companies.
"I can confirm that only one bloc is going ahead because the other eight (bids) were not clear," Menezes told reporters.
He said the eight bids lacked financial and administrative information and that a new auction would be held for the exploration of those fields.
He didn't provide further details about the bloc that was sold nor about the failed bids.
The two countries invited bids one year ago for nine blocs in a Joint Development Zone in the Gulf of Guinea, one of Africa's most active oil exploration areas. The zone is believed to hold at least 6 billion barrels of oil.
The bids were opened last October at a formal ceremony in Sao Tome, the capital of the twin-island nation that lies south of Nigeria, sub-Saharan Africa's biggest oil producer.
Details of the bids weren't provided.
Under the terms of the international auction, bidders had to provide technical and financial guarantees they would be able to extract the oil from the deep-water fields.
Sao Tome is one of the world's poorest countries, according to the U.N. It hopes oil revenue will generate economic growth and raise the standard of living. Roughly 140,000 people live on its two islands.
Under the joint exploration agreement, Sao Tome gets 40% of the oil revenue while Nigeria takes 60%.
posted
We tried yesterday to find it there too and couldnt was one of reasons I questioned its validity Casico. The article today SEEMS to support it, but I dont know if President Menezes speaks for the JDA or if it could be altered by May 17th. Otherwise I still dont know what to do with this info.
Two US oil firms granted offshore bloc rights in Gulf of Guinea LUANDA, Apr 30, 2004 (Xinhua via COMTEX) --
President of Sao Tome and Principe Fradique de Menezes has announced that two US oil giants have won rights to drill for oil in bloc 1 of the Joint Development Zone ( JDZ) the archipelago shares with Nigeria, according to reports reaching here from Sao Tome Friday.
The offshore bloc, one of the eight bid for by international companies in last year's licensing round, was sold to ChevronTexaco for 123 million US dollars. The US firm will hold a 51-percent stake in the bloc.
ExonMobil has a 40-percent share in the bloc through the exercising of preemptive rights to a minority stake after doing preliminary exploration work for Sao Tome before the establishment of the joint authority in 2001.
Equity Energy resources on Norway holds the remaining 9-percent share in bloc 1.
President Menezes, speaking over state radio on Thursday, said the award of drilling rights in the other seven blocs bid for in the JDZ would not be made for the time being.
"I confirm that we are only going forward with one bloc as other bids were not clear."
Sao Tome and Nigeria have said they would examine the technical aspects of bids, such as track records in deep water exploration and production and the financial capacities of firms.
The JDZ carves up oil receipts from the Gulf of Guinea overlap zone 60-40 in Nigeria's favor.
Besides the hydrocarbon resources it shares with Nigeria, Sao Tome is believed to have significant oil reserves in its own territorial waters.
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Casico if you are confused your not alone. I dont know if you own this stock but I had 2 family members and 2 friends that had bought upon my encouragement as well as most of my money in it, and had just helped a friend set up account who was going to buy in Friday until I told him to wait. He and his wife are leary about stock market especially pennies and could not justify him going in it until find out what going on.
Since I had 5 accounts that I manage, (3 of mine own, a sisters and a friends) all pretty much fully invested in ERHC this was deveistating news to me Thursday and I was very busy selling stock. Fortunately only my IRA which took 50% hit when sold and last one to sell was seriously down from original investment. my large account and that of my sister and friends were up 25 to 50% from when we invested. My other friend sold most of his also for ?? profit. At least we waeren't down.
To see more go to Raging bull on ERHC thread. That is actually one of better RB streams. I personally think they are a bit over positive there and LOTS OF SPECULATION, but also if go through it is some good info. They dont know what to do with news there either and are not sure everything is 100% legit but this news did come out and has effected price.
My hope is it is not true or at least only effects JDZ as short wait. I dont know whether to buy or sell so tried to hedge against big rise OR big fall in price.
I am not telling anyone else how to re-act or whether to react at all, because I have no clue myself. Just tried to pass on info since have posted posatively on this stock and I dont want anyone totally losing there shirt if it is on the up and up
posted
Thank you..and yes I own the stock about 50,000 shares or so...So do you think this is like everything else in Third world countries they just are looking for money graft money first ?...Or is it a MM that is driving the price....I beleive that unless the politics are not good the priuce will rise on the 9% of block 2...they have been promised...who no we will see....
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Again do some DD and make own decision. I will say that at least they will get 15% of block 2 and 15% of block 4 (The best of remaining blocks in original bid zone). If bids go through will be 30% of 2 and 25% of 4. That is a sizable difference and will make difference longterm. That said the 15 and 15 was all we were thinking we would get in the firstplace, and more is gravy.
I did buy back almost 50% of what I sold Thursday on Friday at slightly better price. The fact it went down just before close may mean lower price without clarification or just some people got nervous at last minute.
Long term this stock still has potential to go big but short term (I believe) it totally is dependant on % in 2 and 4 and time element. I was in big in October and watched it stagnate and slowly go down when found out it would be 3 to 6 months before blocks awarded. Will we see prices .27 or below if it takes that long or longer again? I hope not but very likely would.
I wish I knew what to suggest and do myself I just dont have a real clue yet. From reading RB stream lots of speculation but no one really has a clue there either. Longterm company looks solid .... short term your guess as good as anyones.
posted
Oh and about the 9% you referred to that was in block 1 and a scandinavian company got it not ERHC even though that was falsly reported by same reporter that wrote article Thursday. Remember some of these articles are written in Portugeeze or other local languages and sometimes translations not to good. Anyway good luck and GIGATT.
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Well back to .50 on no news. Apparently peoples fear is being outwayed by confidence (greed?) of what this stock could be. I bought more again today myself (15,000 sh)but still somewhat nervous and well under my previous holdings. Again do own DD and this is not encouragement to buy or sell, just an update.
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posted
Finished day at .59 again with no news out.
Speculation: may just be MM's playing games, stock is being more fairly valued, ERHC has a JV in place, charts said it was due, Low volume spike, everything peachy keen, full moon tonight, weird - definately weird.
Fact: well it went up. Wish I had bought more earlier in the day. Tomorrow it will go up; or it will go down; or it will stay the same. I know one of these three will be right. Good luck to all those in ERHC.
posted
It's only a matter of time till this thing starts rocking. great article by barry, erhc and chev and exxon Joint Venture WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOO This stock is awsome! Announcement in 2 weeks
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Barry Morgan only fair on reliability but this is his article out lasdt night or this morning. Up 20% today so far.
JDZ meeting pushed back
The Joint Ministerial Council between Nigerian oil officials and diplomats from Sao Tome & Principe has delayed meeting until the first week of June, The Abuja-based Joint Development Authority set up to administer the licensing round and allocate ultra deep-water blocks in the Gulf of Guinea was supposed to have made preliminary awards this week but so far only one PSC has been announced block one to ChevronTexaco.
Hopes have faded that block six will be awarded this time round, leaving blocks two and four as the only other two slated to emerge after a bidding exercise that officially put nine blocks on the table.
The latest delay is believed to have been approved to allow more time for the big players to complete negotiations.
The line-up presently tipped to take over blocks 2 and 4 now includes ExxonMobil, which never bid the round and failed to formally exercise its priority rights beyond block 1, US minnow Environmental Remediation Holdings Corporation (which did), ChevronTexaco and Amerada Hess. Anadarko remains in the running but is understood to have baulked at the high cost of entry.
Running parallel to the JDA's decision over the Joint Development Zone is Sao Tome's desire to approve licences for its own Exclusive Economic Zone. "Also being worked on this week" is a multilateral deal to secure key EEZ blocks involving ExxonMobil, ERHC and ChevronTexaco, said one insider.
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If EEZ blocks are awarded and from what I have read that is key part to negotiating blocks 2 and 4 in JDZ this stock may hit $5 faster than I ever expected. This is only IMHO so make sure to do own DD before buying this stock. Barry Morgan is only source so far talking about EEZ rights being given almost simultanous to JDZ without going through bid process on those particular blocks.
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IMO. All signs look to be pointing down the successful road. Go to ragingbull to see more about what people say. Erhc is a gem that every invester should know about and research. IMO
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The RB ERHC stream is pretty much turned into the usual RB crap, but occassionally you can find a gem amongst it. Here is an 'amaricanized english translation' of article of a few days ago. It is much clearer and easily understood. Validity is fairly high I believe, but not 100%. From Turkanaman:
Finally had chance to get translation of Sao Tome web newspaper Tela Non item on what the ST Resources Minister had to say about upcoming JDA. It indicates there will be more bloc awards, that ST needs money, that ERHC deal is costing ST money but it also suggests the government is resigned to letting ERHC get its due. Enjoy the read from cstome dot net slash diario.
"Sao Tome and Principe's Natural Resources minister admitted that at the Joint Nigerian-Sao Tome Ministers Council meeting to be held in Sao Tome later this month both sides will do an in-depth analysis of the results of the auction of the first oil blocs.
According to Minister Arlindo Carvalho, this exercise may allow companies with recognized technical and financial capabilities to be awarded some of the blocs that were cancelled in the first auction.
A meeting of the Joint Nigerian-Sao Tome Ministers Council to be held in Sao Tome still this month. Carvalho guaranteed that the meeting will provide for an analysis of the auction in greater depth. Some blocs that were not sold may be secured. "At the Sao Tome meeting we are thinking of carrying out an analysis with the companies, and there will be the possibility that some blocs will be awarded," said the minister.
Sao Tome and Principe and Nigeria placed nine oil blocs on the market but only one was sold. This is greatly disappointing, especially for the public of Sao Tome and Principe, who was counting on receiving a large amount of US dollars. Perhaps to do away with generalized pessimism, Carvalho acknowledged that it was progress and not a failure. "It is really good progress because in this situation both Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe came out winners, and they have one bloc secured, with a great operator, a great financial company, and a great firm with technical capability to do this," he explained.
Carvalho argued that the country thus avoids dangerous risks. Many companies participate in public tenders but they do not have the capabilities to explore the black gold. The minister named some countries where blocs auctioned over three years ago have not yet been explored because the company that won the tender does not have the capability to do so and has not been able to secure partnerships with real companies in that field.
To increase the value of the eight oil wells on the market, the governments of Sao Tome and Principe and Nigeria decided to carry out three-dimensional seismic tests. According to Carvalho, the Norwegian firm PGS has already been contacted to carry out these tests on the eight blocs
This is progress in the oil portfolio, which, however, may not prevent losses. As a consequence of the agreement signed with the company ERHC, the country may lose many millions of dollars. Carvalho recognized the problem but believes that Sao Tome and Principe will experience minor losses with the second auction. "The ERHC has some rights over some blocs. Some they pay for, others are exempt from payment. But in the new auction that we will hold it is possible that we may not even reach the $74 million," he emphasized.
Sao Tome and Principe recently signed another controversial agreement with the company called Energem/Diamondworks. This is a case that has yet to be resolved. Minister Carvalho guaranteed that the company was notified about the Ministers Council's decision to cancel the agreement, which was the basis for the recent political crisis in the country. "The points that can damage the government of Sao Tome and Principe may be discussed, and if the company agrees to overlook those points, things will be done in an open manner and it may be possible to resume negotiations," he concluded.
These are obstacles that have persistently been in the way of Sao Tome's new oil portfolio."
Reuters Sao Tome sacks oil licensing chiefs Tuesday June 1, 8:27 am ET By Tom Ashby
LAGOS, June 1 (Reuters) - The tiny African island nation of Sao Tome and Principe has sacked two oil officials after the bi-national authority in charge of oil licensing with Nigeria failed to award exploration contracts as expected. Sao Tome has also nominated one of its nationals, Carlos Gomes, to replace Nigeria's Tajudeen Umar as chairman of the joint authority, according to a presidential decree dated May 31 obtained by Reuters on Tuesday.
The two officials are Flavio Dos Santos and Luis Dos Prazeres, who were on the four-member board of the joint authority.
Analysts said the move was the latest in a string of mishaps marking Sao Tome's entrance into the world of big oil, which has been plagued by a military coup and accusations of high level corruption The decree gave no reasons for the reshuffle, but a Nigerian spokesman for the authority said the changes were in line with its founding charter, which establishes annual rotation of the chairmanship of the four-man board.
"I don't think it has anything to do with the licensing round. The change was overdue according to our statutes," said Sam Dimka, spokesman for the joint development authority.
The two Nigerian representatives remain on the board of the joint authority, he added.
But analysts said the reshuffle probably reflected a behind-the-scenes power struggle over the potentially lucrative contracts in one of Africa's last unexplored oil reservoirs.
"At first I thought the whole process looked transparent, but when the delays started to creep in and now this reshuffle, it tells you that all is not well," said Mosto Onuoha, Shell Professor of Geology at the University of Nigeria "There has clearly been a clash of powerful interest groups," he added.
BIG BIDS
The authority, which is jointly managed by Sao Tome and Nigeria, opened the licensing process for nine offshore blocks last October, and attracted bids as high as $120 million for the most prospective acreage.
The blocks are located in the Gulf of Guinea, one of Africa's most prolific oil basins where several billion-barrel oil finds have been made over the past decade After a six-month delay, the authority announced the award of only one block in April and said the other winners would be decided at an unspecified future date.
No explanation was given for the delays.
ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM - News), ChevronTexaco (NYSE:CVX - News) and little-known Equity Energy Resources won the highly fancied block one.
Further awards were originally expected at a joint ministerial meeting due to be held on May 27, but the authority spokesman said this had been postponed due to "prior commitments" of the two countries' ministers.
The faltering licensing process was not the first controversy to blight Sao Tome's first steps into the world of big oil.
The impoverished nation of 170,000 people has been rocked by political instability since the early 1990s, when seismic indications of its potential oil wealth first emerged. President Fradique de Menezes survived a military coup last year after giving the military rights to oversee oil deals amid accusations of corruption.
Only last month, four ministers were reshuffled in a political row about suspected shady oil deals.
Before the licensing started, U.S. oil giant ExxonMobil and little-known ERHC (OTC BB:ERHC.OB - News) obtained preferential rights to take a big share in several blocks. The authority said this was in return for exploration work already undertaken.
When the full list of bidders was revealed, it contained several newly created companies whose credentials in the oil business were unproven
posted
This is just my take on the above article. When President Menedez came out with announcement before the JDC that only one block was awarded many stockholders were very negative toward him. At the time the only reason I could think of for him doing this was to put political pressure on the JDC to award more. I believe this is just a furthering of that on his part.
On the very short term this may be negative since many of us who have followed the procedings so far were expecting an announcement awarding 2 or more blocks in next few days. On the slightly longer picture I believe this to be good news. Politically to only have the one block go through would have destroyed the current administration of Sao Tome as the people need to see some positive cash flow immediately, which would not be accomplished with just the one block, beyond the current year.
It also now seems more reasonable that Sao Tome would award some of blocks in their own zone, or at least threaten to do this to put pressure on the Nigerean members of the JDC to resolve and award some of the blocks.
We now do not know when the next meeting of the JDC will be but probably sometime this month, and IMHO can with confidence expect some awards will be given which will include ERHC. Do your own DD but this company looks better today than any time in recent history, again IMHO.
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Meeting is supposed to take place next week with award of minimum of 1 block, either next week or following. In all likelihood ERHC will be a part of that/those block(s).
IMHO look for stock to move up signicantly during next week and then again upon announcement of awarding of 1 or more blocks with ERHC involved whether toward end of next week or week following.
The following is thoughtful SPECULATION: I also believe upon this announcement there will be another stating that more awards will be forthcoming in a relatively short time, probably before end of summer. President Martinez didnt change board around simply to award 1 or 2 blocks. That much of a compromise could have been made with old board members. He wants all or at least most to go forward quickly. Again this is my opinion from watching the situation develop over last year NOT BASED on reports or other DD from San Tome or JDC.
One more thought, apparently Gomas is now the chairman and he has worked with ERHC before giving them very favorable terms. The fact he was appointed was a surprise to me because his dealings with ERHC was what brought him into disfavor earlier and the only reason IMHO to appoint him to this position now is so he can work out deal with ERHC. I believe this may mean we lose some upfront but get a better deal overall probably dealing with two areas: 1. The percentages in blocks 2 and 4. Currently we are slated for 30% and 25% respectively, but it is possable we could end up with 15% in each. This is a problem mainly because of area number two, 2. Payment of signiture rights. If 30 and 25% of block 2 and 4 remain to ERHC the JDC would lose somewhere in the neighberhood of 74 million in up front money meaning Sao Tome's half being 37 million. If ERHC would agree to pay signiture bonus on one block it would greatly reduce their upfront hit.
Whatever deal is worked out taking away current rights more rights will be awarded for later, or as it was reported earlier perhaps the pay off will come in EEZ.
[This message has been edited by BigT1 (edited June 05, 2004).]
Environmental Remediation Holding Corporation Announces Memorandum of Understanding with Pioneer Natural Resources USA Corporation Thursday June 24, 9:05 am ET
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 24, 2004--Environmental Remediation Holding Corporation ("ERHC") (OTCBB:ERHC - News), announced today that Pioneer Natural Resources USA, Inc., the wholly-owned subsidiary of Pioneer Natural Resources Company ("Pioneer") (NYSE:PXD - News) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with ERHC for Block 2 of the Nigeria/Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone ("JDZ") in the Gulf of Guinea offshore West Africa. The Memorandum of Understanding provides a period of exclusivity whereby the companies will jointly evaluate and negotiate participation in Block 2 of the JDZ. The MOU also sets forth the terms and conditions under which the companies will enter into a Participation Agreement relating to Block 2 of the JDZ.
Environmental Remediation Holding Corporation is an oil and gas exploration company focused on the Nigeria/Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone ("JDZ") in the Gulf of Guinea offshore West Africa. For more information, visit ERHC's website at www.erhc.com.
Pioneer is a large independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Canada, Argentina, South Africa, Gabon and Tunisia. Pioneer's headquarters are in Dallas. For more information, visit Pioneer's website at www.pioneernrc.com.
Huge news. How big not sure but would indicate block 2 award is around corner and may allow ERHC to be the operator of block so could mean larger share than 35% awarded to them.
posted
This was posted on another board by mrken. He has been reliable in the past. Barry Morgan's reliability has been questioned but may have been the source not Morgan himself that got news wrong in the past.
More in JDZ
The Joint Development Authority set up by Nigeria and Sao Tome & Principe to license the disputed deep waters of the Gulf of Guinea will award two more blocks within two weeks. Sao Tome's Honorary Consul in the UK, Joao Gomes, told a CWC conference that blocks two and four will likely be allocated but definitely block two.
US explorer Environmental Remediation Holdings Corporation enjoys priority rights to these and four other blocks. ERHC could net at least 30% and 25% of these blocks respectively, and is seeking an operatorship along with an unidentified second-tier oil company partner brought onboard this week.
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Ok Big T, I'm back because I predict a run here within the upcomming two weeks. Menedez comes back from Abuja tonight I believe. He was discussing the JDZ with the Nigerian President and the Gomes brothers (one of which is the head of the JDA). It's go time. There's a shot in the dark we hear something within a few days, but more than likely 2 or 3 more blocks will be announced in 2 weeks. I've been sitting on this puppy for over a year and I'm getting extremely excited. Not only that, I have been accumulating and accumulating some more. And yes Mrken is definitely very reliable with his posts. Good luck Big T
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