You did very well to sell at .78 which is
ten cents over current support prices. You
really could not have done much better,
with any degree of certainty; you were
up with no factual data to support any
further increases in price.I have been monitoring HEC for three months
and elected to not buy. This is certainly
not a good time to buy into HEC, for those
considering jumping on the bandwagon.
Be sure you understand, do not buy HEC
for now. Wait for a significant fall in
price over the coming weeks.
This recent spike in price is a result of
stock hype at the Silicon Investors Microcap
Kitchen board. This recent price spike will
not be supported for long, which is only
an opinion and could be completely wrong.
My personal projection is HEC will fall back
to your .78 price, perhaps lower although
there is now support for a price above its
true current value of .65 per share.
Read that "good" news carefully, then look
at SEC filings. This news states full payment
of a bank loan, otherwords, credit line. This
news "suggests" HEC is debt free. This is not
the case at all.
A summary of debt from the last 10Q:
Bank Credit Facility 4,610,000
Operating Leases 2,068,000
Middle American Commitments 150,000
Convertible Notes Payable 5,669,000
Convertible Notes Payable 3,522,000
Notes Payable 618,000
Senior Secured Notes 2,020,000
Total Obligations 18,657,000
You will note their recent news addresses
the first line entry, Bank Credit. This
is paid leaving 3 million from their land
sale in Oklahoma. This is a good indicator
with their credit line bearing the highest
interest rate.
Their 10Q indicates production is down
which is offset by higher oil and gas
prices this year. Otherwords, current
revenue is supported only by market
prices which are prone to change.
HEC is doing fairly well this year but
nothing to brag about. HEC is probably
a safe investment and just might show
continued improvement in price.
Nonetheless, "true" stock price will
flatline for a long time to come.
There is a recent SEC filing which causes
some concern and no quick answer can be
found for what will actually happen.
PRE 14A
Meeting January 20, 2004
"...to approve an amendment to Harken's
Certificate of Incorporation to increase
the number of shares of Harken's Common
Stock, par value $0.01, authorized for
issuance...."
This hints of dilution in February but this
is not a certainty, based on this limited
statement of intent. End result will depend
on what HEC has planned for new common stock.
Again, you made a prudent decision to sell
at .78 per share. I would have made the
same decision without hesitation. You gained
ten cents per share over support prices.
HEC might settle down to .70 to .75 cents
per share in the next few weeks. Their
recent news does support a mild increase
in stock value.
Do keep in mind, this recent up spike is
very artificial and will not last. This
is a typical feeding frenzy pattern created
by those not doing their homework. This
a hype spike by board posters.
Also keep in mind I could be wrong. I have
witnessed spikes like this actually take
hold and last, but not often.
Bottom line, this is not the best time
to purchase HEC. Personally I would wait
a few weeks. This might be a mistake, prices
could continue increasing but basic data
suggests a reduction in price to lower
price support, perhaps slightly higher
than current support at .65 per share.
Watch this pre 14A news carefully. Dilution
is a possibility but not a certainty.
What I have expressed here is an opinion
and not worth the bytes with which my
opinion is written. Do your research,
do your homework and make prudent decisions.
Never take what I write or others write,
as factual or truthful. Make your own
decision based on good research.
Congratulations on your sell at .78 per
share. My opinion is you did very well
and made a very good "safe" decision.
Do not regret your sell. You did good.
Purl Gurl