These two have been going crazy for the past week and I was wondering what your views were on whether it is smart to buy or will there be a major correction before the end of the week or after the long weekend.
Regards,
toothy
Posts: 202 | From: Hong Kong/Birmingham | Registered: Jun 2007
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posted
I bought FNM yesterday for 7.50 and got out at 7.76 Pre-market is in the 7.5X range. Market is going to open negative today and will probably stay there. Maybe shorting is a better idea at this point if you really must get into one of them.
Honestly, FRE and FNM are so volatile lately, they scare the crap out of me. I will be staying away from them today. Good luck.
Posts: 681 | Registered: Feb 2008
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quote:Originally posted by toothpick: common guys i know some of you must be in on these 2
I made about $6,000 on them and then lost it right back. I'm speachless on it. All I can say is there was some real BS news and talk on these stocks.
For instance, they say they will get back up from feds....they went up huge.....then they say housing loses are bigger then predicted. Stocks crash.....then they say FRE doesn't meet the requirement to be supported but the feds. Then they say they lost a bunch of money. Then they say the feds are not helping. Stock burns to the ground......now they say they BOTH made the biggest profits now for the past 10 years. Some ass holes are playing these and it makes me wonder if that MM or whoever is creating the news sparks so they can buy or sell. Think about it.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
R1 Man, I am down almost $10k and it is due almost solely to FRE. Making back $250 yesterday was a risky task to me. I am simply speechless as well.
Posts: 681 | Registered: Feb 2008
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posted
Biggest profits in 10 years??? LOL, where did you read that? Link?
quote:Originally posted by R1 Man:
quote:Originally posted by toothpick: common guys i know some of you must be in on these 2
I made about $6,000 on them and then lost it right back. I'm speachless on it. All I can say is there was some real BS news and talk on these stocks.
For instance, they say they will get back up from feds....they went up huge.....then they say housing loses are bigger then predicted. Stocks crash.....then they say FRE doesn't meet the requirement to be supported but the feds. Then they say they lost a bunch of money. Then they say the feds are not helping. Stock burns to the ground......now they say they BOTH made the biggest profits now for the past 10 years. Some ass holes are playing these and it makes me wonder if that MM or whoever is creating the news sparks so they can buy or sell. Think about it.
quote:Originally posted by metal1: Biggest profits in 10 years??? LOL, where did you read that? Link?
quote:Originally posted by R1 Man:
quote:Originally posted by toothpick: common guys i know some of you must be in on these 2
I made about $6,000 on them and then lost it right back. I'm speachless on it. All I can say is there was some real BS news and talk on these stocks.
For instance, they say they will get back up from feds....they went up huge.....then they say housing loses are bigger then predicted. Stocks crash.....then they say FRE doesn't meet the requirement to be supported but the feds. Then they say they lost a bunch of money. Then they say the feds are not helping. Stock burns to the ground......now they say they BOTH made the biggest profits now for the past 10 years. Some ass holes are playing these and it makes me wonder if that MM or whoever is creating the news sparks so they can buy or sell. Think about it.
I heard it on CNBC the other day.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by toothpick: common guys i know some of you must be in on these 2
I made about $6,000 on them and then lost it right back. I'm speachless on it. All I can say is there was some real BS news and talk on these stocks.
For instance, they say they will get back up from feds....they went up huge.....then they say housing loses are bigger then predicted. Stocks crash.....then they say FRE doesn't meet the requirement to be supported but the feds. Then they say they lost a bunch of money. Then they say the feds are not helping. Stock burns to the ground......now they say they BOTH made the biggest profits now for the past 10 years. Some ass holes are playing these and it makes me wonder if that MM or whoever is creating the news sparks so they can buy or sell. Think about it.
some people involved with CNBC are going to crash and burn soon.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
I think you misheard. all the earnings estimates are for huge losses. myabe they said revenues. here are the estimates from yahoo. not to mention the basic fact that if they are on the brink of failure, how can they be set for 10 year record profits, lol.
quote:Originally posted by metal1: Biggest profits in 10 years??? LOL, where did you read that? Link?
quote:Originally posted by R1 Man:
quote:Originally posted by toothpick: common guys i know some of you must be in on these 2
I made about $6,000 on them and then lost it right back. I'm speachless on it. All I can say is there was some real BS news and talk on these stocks.
For instance, they say they will get back up from feds....they went up huge.....then they say housing loses are bigger then predicted. Stocks crash.....then they say FRE doesn't meet the requirement to be supported but the feds. Then they say they lost a bunch of money. Then they say the feds are not helping. Stock burns to the ground......now they say they BOTH made the biggest profits now for the past 10 years. Some ass holes are playing these and it makes me wonder if that MM or whoever is creating the news sparks so they can buy or sell. Think about it.
posted
i put a limit order in for $4.60 for freddie. what are your views?
Posts: 202 | From: Hong Kong/Birmingham | Registered: Jun 2007
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posted
Many people now are guessing that a bailout won't be needed so it's not the worst buy. they've been able to issue debt recently so a bailout is probably not imminent as some people were betting on.
Posts: 1045 | From: novato,ca,usa | Registered: Aug 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: metal. he didn't mishear... CNBC has some real problems
Glassman is right. I know what I heard and when they said it. It pissed me off big.
I woke up on the wrong side of the fence today. Shorted FRE at $4.45 and was going to short PMI at $3.39. I was screwed either way. Some days you can't win. But now I am a sitting duck in debate. I really thought of buying when it was $4.35. Should of covered then. I was seeing how low it would go and make my sell based on that.
Any thoughts on what the stock will do Tuesday? It looks like the hurricane will hit the oil wells. Praying that it does!!! I need the market to crash. Plus if I cover for the $1,100 loss....CNBC will just say negative crap about FRE or FNM and make the stocks crash again.
Think....who the hell started the BANKRUPCY talks????
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
Well, if it makes you feel better (I am sure it doesn't)... I should've listened to my own advice to myself in my first post in this thread.
I really thought the market might turn around today, the way things started spinning upwards, and it looks like I picked the wrong time to buy FNM (not short it).
Posts: 681 | Registered: Feb 2008
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posted
LOL, can anyone provide specifics? Every analyst has both to lose money. It would make 0 sense that CNBC would say they are making record profits. Someone got misquoted or something.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: metal. he didn't mishear... CNBC has some real problems
posted
I swear I heard them disguss it. It was that sexy lady with dark hair with the fat guy. They do the interviews with analyst and one of them said they are making record profits. The whole thing just pisses me off.
I kind of wonder if those people buy in cheap or sell short then say that crap.
Cramer even said he wants to know who is responsible. He talked about it on his show this week. It was said on Monday or Tuesday I think. Cramer mentioned the one letter that came out and became public. Its posted on another FRE/FNM trend on here. Cramer said the letter was sent out to corrupt the market. He said nobody is taking responsibility for it either. So again, I know I didn't get confused because Cramer talked on his show about the BS that is going on.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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The Endgame Nears For Fannie and Freddie By JONATHAN R. LAING | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The almost inevitable government recapitalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely wipe out investors—and management.
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IT MAY BE CURTAINS SOON FOR THE MANAGEMENTS and shareholders of beleaguered housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . It is growing increasingly likely that the Treasury will recapitalize Fannie and Freddie in the months ahead on the taxpayer's dime, availing itself of powers granted it under the new housing bill signed into law last month. Such a move almost certainly would wipe out existing holders of the agencies' common stock, with preferred shareholders and even holders of the two entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt also suffering losses. Barron's first raised the possibility of a government takeover of Fannie and Freddie in a March 10 cover story, "Is Fannie Mae Toast?"
Martin Kozlowski Many of Fannie's and Freddie's credit losses come from risky mortgages that the agencies bought or guaranteed in recent years to boost their market share. Heaven knows, the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, both need resuscitation. Soaring mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures have led the companies to gush red ink for the past four quarters, and their managements concede the outlook is even grimmer well into next year. Shares of Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have lost around 90% of their value in the past year, with Fannie now trading at $7.91, and Freddie at $5.88.
Similarly, the balance sheets of both companies have been destroyed. On a fair-value basis, in which the value of assets and liabilities is marked to immediate-liquidation value, Freddie would have had a negative net worth of $5.6 billion as of June 30, while Fannie's equity eroded to $12.5 billion from a fair value of $36 billion at the end of last year. That $12.5 billion isn't much of a cushion for a $2.8 trillion book of owned or guaranteed mortgage assets.
What's more, the fair-value figures reported by the companies may overstate the value of their assets significantly. By some calculations each company is around $50 billion in the hole. But more on that later.
Bringing Fannie and Freddie to heel will be difficult for the Bush administration, despite the GSEs' (Government-Sponsored Enterprises') parlous financial condition. Consider their history. In the early 1980s Fannie was effectively insolvent, but the government allowed it to continue operating. Eventually long-term interest rates dropped, bolstering the value of the company's mortgages and bringing it back from the brink. Earlier in the current decade Fannie and Freddie successfully fought a full-scale attempt by the White House and some brave Republican legislators to clamp down on their operations, after they were caught perpetrating accounting frauds.
Note, too, that Fannie and Freddie have nonpareil lobbying operations and formidable political strength, owing to their hefty donations and penchant for hiring former political operatives. Besides, the agencies claim they've landed in their current predicament through no fault of their own. As Freddie Mac Chairman and CEO Richard Syron recently put it, the GSEs have been hit by a "100-year storm" in the housing market, accentuated by some higher-risk mortgages that they were forced to buy to meet government affordable-housing targets.
The latter contention is more than disingenuous. A substantial portion of Fannie's and Freddie's credit losses comes from $337 billion and $237 billion, respectively, of Alt-A mortgages that the agencies imprudently bought or guaranteed in recent years to boost their market share. These are mortgages for which little or no attempt was made to verify the borrowers' income or net worth. The principal balances were much higher than those of mortgages typically made to low-income borrowers. In short, Alt-A mortgages were a hallmark of real-estate speculation in the ex-urbs of Las Vegas or Los Angeles, not predatory lending to low-income folks in the inner cities.
In the current bailout the Bush administration is playing from strength. Not only have the GSEs' stocks been decimated, but trading in their debt -- whether the $1.6 trillion of corporate obligations or $3.6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities the two have guaranteed -- would have been in disarray had the recent housing bill not made explicit the U.S. government's backing of that debt. Even so, GSE debt spreads are starting to widen, relative to Treasury yields.
An insider in the Bush administration tells Barron's Fannie and Freddie are being jawboned by the Treasury Department and their new regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), to raise more equity. But government officials don't expect the agencies to succeed. For one thing, only a "capital raise" of $10 billion or more apiece would have any credibility. Yet, what common-stock investors would advance that kind of money to entities that have market capitalizations of $8.5 billion (Fannie) and $4 billion (Freddie), especially as the FHFA will use its new powers to boost dramatically the regulatory capital the GSEs must have in coming years?
Just as disconcerting for prospective shareholders, all but $300 million of the $7.2 billion in equity Fannie raised in the second quarter was lost in the very same quarter, according to its fair-value balance sheet. With credit losses surging at both agencies, $20 billion in new common equity wouldn't last long.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
I'm confused, that article you posted is about how much money they are both losing.
quote:Originally posted by R1 Man: I swear I heard them disguss it. It was that sexy lady with dark hair with the fat guy. They do the interviews with analyst and one of them said they are making record profits. The whole thing just pisses me off.
I kind of wonder if those people buy in cheap or sell short then say that crap.
Cramer even said he wants to know who is responsible. He talked about it on his show this week. It was said on Monday or Tuesday I think. Cramer mentioned the one letter that came out and became public. Its posted on another FRE/FNM trend on here. Cramer said the letter was sent out to corrupt the market. He said nobody is taking responsibility for it either. So again, I know I didn't get confused because Cramer talked on his show about the BS that is going on.
posted
Yes I know that. The article came out and they said they are losing thier butts. Then the next day the analyst says they are making record profits. Understand why Cramer was going off. That is where games are being played.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
that sounds horribly wrong. that isn't the only article about their losses. everyone on the planet knows they are losing money hand over fist.. i don't see anything on thestreet.com about any idiot guest or on any other Cramer ****s/quotes. that analyst would have been laughed off the show if he said that. he must have mispoken. LOL. the best part about CNBC is that they call poeple on things when they come one. just like Santelli blasted Cramer a couple of months agao. if you could show me a link, ****, or any other post about this i could believe it but it mkaes 0 sense. if he actually said that he would have been fired from wherever he works
Posts: 1045 | From: novato,ca,usa | Registered: Aug 2003
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posted
Cramer just said its all BS. He said they get talks of Fed support, housing down, losing money, then someone says record profits. The sexy lady was very quiet on it. It aired around 2:30pm EST on Tuesday I think.
It wasn't on his show where he is alone.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
The guy who said it is on CNBC right now. Wearing a blue shirt. On the far right and bald. If I remember right, he was the one who said record profits.
Posts: 2367 | From: Detroit | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by R1 Man: The guy who said it is on CNBC right now. Wearing a blue shirt. On the far right and bald. If I remember right, he was the one who said record profits.
On Fast Money??? LOL, he would have gotten blasted if he said that on there. here is a good Cramer rant on FRE/FNM. Stop Trading!!
posted
if you can't find a link or story that's cool, it doesn't really matter. thanks
Posts: 1045 | From: novato,ca,usa | Registered: Aug 2003
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from the articles released to date, i would have thought that it is unlikely that both will require goverment bail out. why the opposite view from short sellers?
Posts: 202 | From: Hong Kong/Birmingham | Registered: Jun 2007
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posted
don't think they need any more bad articles. everyone knows the kind of shape they are in. common knowledge already. people are just guessing from day to day whether they will need a bailout or not.
Posts: 1045 | From: novato,ca,usa | Registered: Aug 2003
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posted
i guess you're new here so lesson one is take these posts with a grain of salt and do your own research! always!
quote:Originally posted by toothpick: are you short on both frannie and freddie?
i'm worried now.
from the articles released to date, i would have thought that it is unlikely that both will require goverment bail out. why the opposite view from short sellers?
posted
What’s everyone’s view on possibilities of nationalization for both freddie and fannie?
Posts: 202 | From: Hong Kong/Birmingham | Registered: Jun 2007
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