posted
If the SEC decides to enforce the Naked short rule throughout the market, and not just on certain financial stocks, there might be a nice rise in SIRI and the rest of the market:
quote:Originally posted by Peaser: If the SEC decides to enforce the Naked short rule throughout the market, and not just on certain financial stocks, there might be a nice rise in SIRI and the rest of the market:
Cramer just mentioned that the SEC needs to apply this to all stocks, as it was back in the day. Hope the SEC takes heed and does something for the little guys and the entire market for once.
posted
Peaser you mentioned you may short this last week. I thought you were crazy even though I didn't post that but then today I'm thinking you must be pretty damn smart if you shorted it especially after the approval cause it dropped like a rock. This day totally baffled me I fully expected a close of close to 3. I think this just had to be shorts covering. Your opinion?
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posted
Shorts covering should cause an increase in pps as long as a lot are covering. It seemed more folks were shorting it, and selling off today.
The approval was more than likely already figured into the share price, thus the run was short on the hype of the approval earlier in the week.
The debt of the combined companies, the decrease in auto sales, along with the high probability of a future O/S increase meant one thing to me, the price should go down due to the negatives.
posted
peaser posted this link this morning... toast..
Sirius plans to sell up to $440 million of common stock; XM plans $550 million-offer of notes
NEW YORK (AP) -- Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. said Monday it plans to sell about $375 million of its common stock and up to $65 million more from time to time concurrently with a private offering by XM Satellite Radio Inc.
Sirius is nearing the consummation of its proposed purchase of competitor XM Satellite Radio Holdings.
XM plans to offer $550 million of notes, which will be exchangeable into shares of Sirius common stock.
posted
I think this morning is a shorts wet dream. Premarket i think is 1.40 I doubt......... hope it can't go much lower. Actually just 140 pennies lower. I'm giving it the rest of the week then I'll take my big loss and leave. I do think it should close up today since the merger is complete though.
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posted
The merger between Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) is no longer “proposed”. It is reality. As anticipated, Sirius and XM consummated their deal prior to the market opening Tuesday, and the company has a new name….SIRIUS XM RADIO.
Among the announcements Tuesday morning were:
Combined Company Has Over 18.5 Million Subscribers, Annualized Second Quarter Revenue Exceeding $2.4 Billion Company to Offer Consumers Best of Both Services, While Maximizing Significant Efficiencies SIRIUS XM Reiterates Financial Guidance; Expects 2009 Synergies of $400 million and 2009 Adjusted EBITDA of over $300 Million SIRIUS Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio Tuesday announced that they have completed their merger, resulting in the nation’s premier radio company. The new company plans to change its corporate name to SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. The combined company’s stock will continue to be traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “SIRI.”
SIRIUS XM Radio begins day one with over 18.5 million subscribers, making it the second-largest radio company, based upon revenue, in the country; and, based upon subscribers, the second largest subscription media business in the U.S. With under 10% penetration of the home and car market, the opportunity for continued growth is significant.
“I am delighted to announce the completion of this exciting merger between SIRIUS and XM,” said Mel Karmazin, CEO of SIRIUS XM Radio. “We have worked diligently to close this transaction and we look forward to integrating our best-in-class management teams and operations so we can begin delivering on our promise of more choices and lower prices for subscribers.”
“Every one of our constituencies is a winner. Combined, SIRIUS XM Radio will deliver superior value to our shareholders. By offering more compelling packages and the best content in audio entertainment, we are well positioned for increased subscriber growth. Our laser focus on subscribers will continue and listeners can be assured that there will be no disruption in service. We also believe that the completion of the merger will eliminate any confusion that has been lingering in the marketplace,” added Karmazin.
XM shareholders will receive 4.6 shares of SIRIUS common stock for each share of XM.
Competitive New Options for Consumers
SIRIUS XM Radio broadcasts more than 300 channels of programming, including exclusive radio offerings from Howard Stern, Oprah, Opie & Anthony and Martha Stewart, among others. SIRIUS XM Radio will offer these expanded options to consumers through arrangements with the world’s leading automakers and its relationships with nationwide retailers.
As a result of the merger, SIRIUS XM Radio will also be able to offer consumers new packages in audio entertainment, including the first-ever a la carte programming option in subscription media. In addition to two a la carte options, the new packages will include: “Best of Both,” giving subscribers the option to access certain programming from the other network; discounted Family Friendly packages; and tailored packages including “Mostly Music” and “News, Talk and Sports.” The first of the new packages will be available in the early Fall.
“One of the most exciting benefits of this transaction is the ability to offer subscribers the option of expanding their subscriptions to include the Best of Both services. Given the respective popularity of exclusive programming on both SIRIUS and XM, we expect many subscribers will upgrade their current subscription,” said Karmazin.
“The upside potential for both consumers and shareholders is huge. Consumers have the ease of adding premier programming without purchasing a new device. For shareholders, this kind of organic growth is a key part of the company’s future and the success we expect to see,” said Karmazin.
As promised when the merger was first announced, existing radios will continue to work and every subscriber has the option of maintaining their current service package.
Benefits for Shareholders Begin Immediately, Integration Already Under Way
SIRIUS XM Radio expects to begin realizing the synergies expected from this transaction immediately.
“In addition to realizing significant potential revenue growth, the management team will move quickly to capitalize on the synergies that many analysts have predicted for this combination. We expect to begin achieving those synergies without sacrificing any of the world-class programming and marketing we are known for,” said Karmazin.
The company Tuesday also reiterated guidance for the combined SIRIUS XM Radio. Based upon a preliminary analysis, the combined company expects to realize total synergies, net of the costs to achieve such synergies, of approximately $400 million in 2009; to post adjusted EBITDA exceeding $300 million in 2009; and to achieve positive free cash flow, before satellite capital expenditures, for the full year 2009. The company also expects that both synergies and adjusted EBITDA will continue growing beyond 2009.
“We have all the tools necessary to begin executing as a combined company with high aspirations for subscriber growth and greater financial performance in part from the significant synergies that we begin realizing literally today — on Day One. We are moving quickly to integrate the operations,” said Karmazin.
The corporate headquarters will be located in New York, NY and XM Satellite Radio, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, will remain headquartered in Washington, DC.
Effective after the close of the market Monday, trading in XMSR common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market ceased.
Investors Sing the Blues
The birth of Sirius XM Radio has many investors singing the blues. The question is how long the street will stay on the blues channel, and will the next channel be more upbeat?
With the converts arbitrage action panning out during the trading of Monday and Tuesday, it may well be that the stock has stabilized, and perhaps even marked a strong bottom that should become a very strong support point.
Many investors still have various questions, and the process of the transition still has a few more days to unwind. XM shareholders will see their accounts have shares that are able to be traded by this Friday. Those that were short XM will need to settle their trade, as the short positions do not transfer over. The XM shares you borrowed to sell short were bought by someone else, who has already (in theory) converted them to Sirius. Because of this, Friday may be an interesting trading day that sector followers will want to watch.
So how does Sirius XM Radio go from singing the blues to rockin’ and rollin’?
Strong fundamentals, good PR, executing the promises as committed, and keeping the street in the loop with guidance that analysts and investors can sink their teeth into. For the past 18 months SDARS has been marching to the beat of whatever suited any particular investor's fancy. A consistent beat will deliver confidence.
Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen issued a report Monday where she reiterated her $4.50 price target. Cohen is a media analyst, and one in whose opinion I place a lot of weight. According to Cohen, “Strong operating leverage and high contribution from new subs should drive an acceleration in EBITDA and FCF. Improving trends in retail and improving conversion rates in the OEM channel should allow Sirius/XM to capitalize on the more widespread availability of satellite radio in the 245mn U.S. auto fleet. We reiterate our Buy rating and $4.50 price objective for the combined Sirius-XM.”
Cohen sees what is in essence a “THREE-BAGGER” right now. Put a quarter or two of combined operating metrics in the mix, and the confidence of investors in analysts as well as the company can improve.
Sirius XM Radio should schedule an investors conference that outlines initial projections, the path the company is taking, and expectations. This conference should be available to everyone. Investors have a glaring need to know the direction SDARS is headed, and they need to hear it from Sirius XM Radio management first hand. Do not wait for the quarterly call. Do not wait for the annual meeting. Do it now.
The fundamentals will take some time to prove out, but there are activities that can happen now that will also show the strength of Sirius XM Radio. Good PR is key. Getting the news out. Branding the Sirius XM Radio name needs to happen. Get signs into stores, and let the world know that satellite radio has been reborn. That’s all well and good, but other PR needs to happen as well. Sirius XM Radio needs to correct the damage done by the National Association of Broadcasters. They need to prove to investors and the public that the company has integrity.
Announce the first Open Access manufacturer with pride. Announce the informational and minority program with pride. Embrace the Public Knowledge’s of the world for their opinion on how to handle the informational programming. Announce that those that already have a subscription to both services can now get a family plan rate on one of the subscriptions. Announce when the repeater towers are in compliance with pride. Don’t let past FCC discretion jade the vision of the merged company. Spell out exactly what lifetime subscribers and those with long term contracts will get for service and why. My opinion is that lifetime subscribers should get the service they currently get, but also get 3 months of the “Best of Both” free as a trial for being loyal subscribers. If someone still has over 1 year left on a contract, give a one month trial of “Best of Both”. This move was not required by the merger, but would help demonstrate that the company is a stand-up company that is looking out for consumers. Do you hear the music changing? Steps such as these are confidence builders. Confidence is what the street needs. Not just in the bottom line, but in the company. Build a reputation of a premier media and entertainment company, and prove the naysayers wrong by good company metrics, being a good corporate citizen, and reversing the battle fatigued feelings that many SDARS investors have.
The merger is done, and there was a smattering of claps from the street and an undertone of the blues. Management now needs to step up to the podium, and turn those isolated claps into a thundering chorus of WE WILL ROCK YOU! Get the street as well as consumers behind this company so that it can prosper.
This Is The Spirit Of Radio. It is alive in everyone. Kindle the fire, and let everyone know that Sirius XM Radio is the real deal
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posted
I don't know about you guys, but I have already decided to LOAD UP on this one for a LONG POSITION before seeing this article. Thinking about spending $7,500 on it...so about 4,600 shares. I would say its a BUY all the way up to $2.50 a share if you are LONG. Exit target in my opinion is $3.50. GL all. Won't be buying for a few more days...Adding more funds.
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quote:Originally posted by R1 Man: Ok, how do they have a news release saying $6.50 a share then this happens? I've been holding since $2.48 6 months ago for my son.
quote:Originally posted by R1 Man: Ok, how do they have a news release saying $6.50 a share then this happens? I've been holding since $2.48 6 months ago for my son.
IMO, this did not figure in the dilution.
I haven't had a lot of time or maybe even cared to do my DD on it. My father has his account and he don't sell for losses. So he is long for the long hall. No big deal. I hook him up pretty good.
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posted
Still in it, glutton for punishment I suppose but you don't lose till you sell and with the volume this has been having something has to give somewhere. I won't wait for $3 next time. On a sweeter note I hit the superfecta at Saratoga Saturday for a nice gain of $13k and change all on a $2 dollar bet. Much better than my siri play.
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quote:Originally posted by jgrecoconstr: Still in it, glutton for punishment I suppose but you don't lose till you sell and with the volume this has been having something has to give somewhere. I won't wait for $3 next time. On a sweeter note I hit the superfecta at Saratoga Saturday for a nice gain of $13k and change all on a $2 dollar bet. Much better than my siri play.
RIGHT ON!!!! Congrats. Screw the market, lets bet horses.....
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quote:Originally posted by wallymac: IMO, what we are seeing is the people that had MVSN selling the converted shares to SIRI, along with some more shorting.
I think we will see a bounce this afternoon. People are looking at the amount of debt the company has post merger and the slumping Auto sales.
Shorts will cover at some point and allow it to run then short it again. Just look for the confirmation of bottom and play accordingly.
I have almost pulled the trigger 4 times in the past 2 weeks... gut says this is the week to jump in. Brain says wait.
What is it with trying for perfection in trading.??
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posted
Icon 1 posted June 29, 2008 22:24 Profile for stocktrader22 Send New Private Message Edit/Delete Post Reply With Quote Sirius/XM may be in too much debt to benefit from the merger at this point. could be game over, big risk here.
-------------------- Disclaimer: Not accountable for anything I say
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posted
Stock was right about that back then. I was going to get in around $2.50 a couple months back where it looked to be at support.....it dropped. $1.80 was a good entry if you sold as well as the low twos. I was up 30% a couple weeksa ago but it fell quick. I don't think anyone really would have thought it would drop this low on the news the past couple weeks. I think now is a good entry.
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