posted
Panacos Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a development stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery and development of small-molecule oral drugs designed to treat Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and other human viral diseases. Its lead product candidate, bevirimat, under Phase 2 clinical trials, is a class of drug candidates that works by a novel mechanism of action called maturation inhibition. The company's discovery technologies focus on novel targets in the virus life cycle, including virus maturation and virus fusion. It also has research and development programs designed to generate second and third-generation maturation inhibition products; and a research and development program focused on an early step in the HIV virus life cycle, fusion of the HIV virus to human cells. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.
"herb known by the Latin name Syzigium claviflorum that had been used in Taiwan to treat diarrhea and stop bleeding. Now its derivative is being tapped to fight HIV by a small Watertown-based biotechnology company." (Panacos)
I know this is old new but you can see Taiwan has already been using bevirimat's (PA-457) ingredient for other uses. If its already in use than I doubt we will find anything real bad to prevent it from getting approved! This looks to me like it could be a sure thing... I am all in!
BUY while it is cheap!
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This company is trading below cash value!
Since Taiwan is already using the herb in medicine where PANC gets it drug I would say this will be approved. The market for this drug could me in the 250-500 million range!
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Also tomorrow at 8AM PST the CEO "will present a corporate and development update" at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference
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this drug has NO major side effect compared to Pacebo. i dont know of any other HIV drug that has NO major side effect compared to Pacebo!
The drug also has no drug interactions so far!
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I am all in... read my info, do your own DD and make your decision. Thanks for reading!
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Lets assume earnings in 2010 or 2009 are $250 mill and lets assume profit is 20% = 50
with 55 mill shares that puts the EPS at around 0.90
With a average P/E for biotech around 24 you have a stock price of $21.81!!!
That is a 30 bagger! I think my estimates are conservative... If you even cut all my estimates in half (earning = 125, profit = 10%, P/E = 12) you will still have at least a 4 bagger!
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Dont forget about the NEWS tomorrow at 8AM PST the CEO "will present a corporate and development update" at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference
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We just got a new CFO that came from HSBC (a huge bank)... Why would she leave a huge bank HSBC to work for this small biotech company if she thought it would go under in a year???
PANC had a conf call about their phase 2b 350mg cohort results. The CEO (a doctor) was not the best at presenting the results...
The drug appeared to have a "responder and no-responder" population where it worked GREAT for about 50% of the people and the other 50% it worked but not nearly as much as the responders.
The company does not know why 50% respond better. The ones that responded great had I think it was over a 91% or 98% viral load reduction!! So the market overreacted and there was a huge sell off due to this uncertainty about the responder and non-responder population. But I am happy there was a sell off because I got some half priced shares
But the bottom line is this drug so far works better that most of the other HIV drugs on the marker even including the "non-responder" population with the responder population and the drug has no significant side effects!
Keep in mind the "non-responder" population term is misleading. It does not mean the patient had no response just means they didn’t have as great of a response.
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quote:Originally posted by Mike White: Lets assume earnings in 2010 or 2009 are $250 mill and lets assume profit is 20% = 50
with 55 mill shares that puts the EPS at around 0.90
With a average P/E for biotech around 24 you have a stock price of $21.81!!!
That is a 30 bagger! I think my estimates are conservative... If you even cut all my estimates in half (earning = 125, profit = 10%, P/E = 12) you will still have at least a 4 bagger!
i'm assuming you meant revenue of 250 million not earnings in 09-10
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quote:Originally posted by Mike White: Lets assume earnings in 2010 or 2009 are $250 mill and lets assume profit is 20% = 50
with 55 mill shares that puts the EPS at around 0.90
With a average P/E for biotech around 24 you have a stock price of $21.81!!!
That is a 30 bagger! I think my estimates are conservative... If you even cut all my estimates in half (earning = 125, profit = 10%, P/E = 12) you will still have at least a 4 bagger!
i'm assuming you meant revenue of 250 million not earnings in 09-10
Yes good catch. Thanks for the correction!
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The cohorts only have about 9 people in them so if one patient can skew the results. The market was expecting the results to improve as the dose went up... but as you can see with only 9 people in the cohort 1-2 persons can greatly alter the results!
So the market reacted with the following.. "the data show that a 350-milligram dose of the drug was less effective on average than a 300-milligram dose"
The market got worried about this stock. But look at the news and look at the cohort data and you should see that they reacted for no reason.. they just don’t understand the data. Now is the chance to buy cheap
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You have a link for the institutional buying? I don't see any form 4s other than what another person posted, and those aren't purchases.
quote:Originally posted by Mike White: Insiders are buying...
A institution just doubled their position..
We just got a new CFO that came from HSBC (a huge bank)... Why would she leave a huge bank HSBC to work for this small biotech company if she thought it would go under in a year???
posted
Common Stock 01/03/2008 A 75,000 A $ 0 75,000 (2)
Footnote 2 says "2. Shares of common stock are currently unvested. Vesting, as specified in the applicable Restricted Stock Agreement, occurs at the earlier of (i)the dosing of the first patient in a Phase 3 trial or pivotal trial of a Panacos product candidate or (ii) January 3, 2011, the third anniversary of the grant date of the Restricted Stock"
So my educated guess is they were some kind of options grants. Whatever the person got them for, I am pretty sure they were not actual open market purchases.
all the form 4's on 12-18 and 12-17 are insider buys... Looks like all if not most of the execs bought more shares.
The most recent transactions are for the 75,000 acquired by the new CFO... and I believe she got 400,000 options at around 0.70-.80 I was not speaking of these as the insider buys just the ones on 12-17 and 12-18
I am telling you this company looks very promising... Not to mention "Market watch" reports that 90% of biotech companies in phase III make it to FDA approval (across biotech sector as a whole)
So these stats combined with this awesome drug with no side effects and the recent sell off. Insider buying, institution buying makes this a great buy.
I think this can be played 4 ways...
1) Wait for the 400 mg cohort results to be release in 1 month or so and I expect a $2 target
2) Wait for Phase III to start and i expect a $2.5 target
3) Wait for fda approval and I expect a $5-8 target
4) wait for one year after FDA approval and the drug is on the marked to get some earnings and I expect a $8-20 target.
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