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Author Topic: FRPT way oversold and undervalued...$4.68
cassity
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=frpt

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-Cassity

Posts: 2754 | From: Utah | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
cassity
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VectorVest Stock Analysis of Force Protectn as of 1/3/2008


This report has five major sections.
Capital Appreciation Analysis
Dividend Analysis
Price-Volume Data
Sales / Market Capitalization Information
Summary



The ticker symbol for Force Protectn is FRPT. FRPT is traded on the NASDAQ - (xO) and options are available for this stock

Business: Force Protectn, (FRPT) Force Protection, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the manufacture of ballistic and blast protected vehicles. The company’s products are used to protect personnel during transport, removal of unexploded ordnance, route clearance, humanitarian de-mining, and other missions that require protection from landmines and hostile fire. Its products include The Buffalo series, which is designed for route clearing activities; and The Cougar series for troop transport, explosive ordinance disposal, command and control, artillery prime mover, recovery and ambulance duty, urban patrol, route clearance support, utility transport, and special unit activities. The company also offers The Cheetah series for reconnaissance, forward command and control, and urban operations. It serves the United States Army, the U.S. Marine Corps, and the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as the Iraqi Army and the British Military of Defense. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Ladson, South Carolina.
Business Sector: FRPT has been assigned to the Auto & Truck Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Industry Group: FRPT has been assigned to the Auto & Truck (Mfg) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.

Capital Appreciation Analysis Back to top

Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. FRPT has a current Value of $21.85 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $5.01 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.

RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. FRPT has an RV of 1.65, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.

RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. FRPT has an RS rating of 0.89, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.

RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. FRPT has a Relative Timing rating of 0.05, which is very poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.

VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. FRPT has a VST rating of 1.02, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.

Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. FRPT has a Sell recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.

Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. FRPT has a Stop of $10.50 per share. This is $5.49 above FRPT's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.

GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. FRPT has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 31.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (10.19%).

EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. FRPT has a forecasted EPS of $1.01 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.

P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. FRPT has a P/E of 4.96. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 30.61. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.

EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. FRPT has an EY of 20.16 percent. This is above the current average of 3.28% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).

GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. FRPT has a GPE rating of 6.25. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.89%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.35. Therefore, FRPT may be considered to be undervalued.

Dividend Analysis Back to top

DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. FRPT does not pay a dividend.

DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. FRPT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.

DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. FRPT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.

DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. FRPT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .

YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DS, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. FRPT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.

Price-Volume Data Back to top

Price: FRPT closed on 1/3/2008 at $5.01 per share

Open: FRPT opened trading at a price of $5.25 per share on 1/3/2008.

High: FRPT traded at a High price of $5.39 per share on 1/3/2008.

Low: FRPT traded at a Low price of $4.87 per share on 1/3/2008

Close: FRPT closed trading at price $5.01 per share on 1/3/2008. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)

Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. FRPT traded with a range of $0.52 per share on 1/3/2008.

$Change: FRPT closed down 0.13 from the prior day's closing Price.

%PRC: FRPT's Price changed -2.53% from the prior day's closing price.

Volume: FRPT traded 3,368,814 shares on 1/3/2008.

AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. FRPT has an AvgVol of 3,756,600 shares traded per day.

%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. FRPT had a %Vol of -10.32% on 1/3/2008

CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. FRPT has a CI rating of 0.51, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.

Sales / Market Capitalization Information Back to top

Sales: FRPT has annual sales of $504,000,000.00

Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. FRPT has a Sales Growth of 389.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.

Sales Per Share (SPS): FRPT has annual sales of $7.39 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.

Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): FRPT has a P/S of 0.68. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.

Shares: FRPT has 68,000,000.00 shares of stock outstanding.

Market Capitalization: FRPT has a Market Capitalization of $341,000,000.00. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.

Summary Back to top

FRPT is undervalued compared to its Price of $5.01 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Sell.

The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy Low risk, High reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough High Relative Value, High Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.

--------------------
www.air1.com

www.klove.com

-Cassity

Posts: 2754 | From: Utah | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
a surfer
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oh your so important that you need to start a new thread.....


lol

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cassity
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quote:
Originally posted by a surfer:
oh your so important that you need to start a new thread.....


lol

You bet your azz!! Whats up surf? Whats your take on FRPT?

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www.air1.com

www.klove.com

-Cassity

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a surfer
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If the dow keeps dropping it'll be worth a buck.....


Honestly though I see this back in the 8-9 range soon.

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buckstalker
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Grabbed a few at $4.47

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***********************

It's all in the timing...

Posts: 4303 | From: DSA | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
cassity
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Chart looks great on this. Starting to turn around finally...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=frpt

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www.air1.com

www.klove.com

-Cassity

Posts: 2754 | From: Utah | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
cassity
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Up almost 10%....broke through major resistance at 4.28 today...HUGE buy...IMO

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www.air1.com

www.klove.com

-Cassity

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Jo4321
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Ha, and I didn't even sell it today!

Anyway, a bit of good news for FRPT. This article seems to confirm that the vehicle involved in the death last week, was not a FPI vehicle. It was a Maxipro.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/hopes-for-ny-times-reporting-questioned-afte r-mrap-story-04673

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"Great Day for Up!"....Dr. Seuss

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buckstalker
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Good for you Jo...I missed it the first time around.

I started buying in at $4.47 and averaged down to $3.30's

I bought Ford a few days ago at $5.75 and it's up to $6.60 now...

Making up for some of my losses last year...

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***********************

It's all in the timing...

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Jo4321
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Uh, it's not that good. LOL, I'm still holding FRPT shares from the 20's! [BadOne]

You know,I was looking at Ford the other day. I had sold it back when it was $8.35 and I thought it might be a good time to get back in. But of course, I did not. Good job catching that one.

Jo

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buckstalker
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Ouch...I believe that it will go back to at least $9.00 or $10.00 in the near term though...

I couldn't resist Ford at that price...and I don't think it's over yet.

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***********************

It's all in the timing...

Posts: 4303 | From: DSA | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
cassity
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Should have a good week to look forward to. The chart is primed and earnings coming in a few weeks...GLTA

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www.air1.com

www.klove.com

-Cassity

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Free Muney
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Took a big hit on downgrade awhile back. Now it appears to be filling the gap down. Imo.

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Contrarian views always appreciated.... :p

Posts: 361 | From: Portland, Oregon | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
   

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