quote:Originally posted by BooDog: So what's the plan? Short it and bail? Bail and short it? Will your platform let you short it? Nice that they waited 'till just after hours to say something. Paxton just filed his director status and may help this bounce also. Chances for recovery look pretty good imo. I'll be watching. I'm short BHRT also (5.07)- on paper though since I don't short for real. And watching ASTI for another drop also. Oh yeah - don't forget about NURO - losing pretty good on that one now, I have a pretty good tolerance level though so just waiting to double on that one when the charts look better.
quote: So what's the plan? Short it and bail? Bail and short it? Will your platform let you short it? Nice that they waited 'till just after hours to say something.
I can't short FRPT on my platform...and even if I could it will already've gapped down 20-40%...
But..I might have a 30 min gap plan...
One possible strat: I'll be watching the first 30 minutes...if it breaks above the 30 minute high I am staying in..if it breaks below I am out...we'll see.
But your right on Boo...The # 1 rule is to protect my capital...
p.s. That NURO is one hellva pincher...and its getting some positive divergence from the MACD hooking..
quote:Originally posted by Jo4321: Weazel, welcome to the FRPT house of pain, where one of the best investment decisions of my life last year became one of the worst this year.
If I EVER, EVER have gains like I did last year in any one stock, I will take them and never look back. I will not fret about it going up afterwards, I will not pay any attention to it. I will take my 900% gains and be happy about it.
There might be a dead cat bounce on FRPT on Monday, so you may actually come out ahead. Good luck.
Jo
Thanks Jo...for the welcome
"....and maybe someday there will be a buyout at some ridiculously low price"
I don't plan on waiting that long to find out...I'll be outta this thing Monday or Tuesday.
Good luck to you too.
Posts: 1075 | From: weeeeeeee | Registered: Sep 2007
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quote:Originally posted by Bottomfeeder: I am glad I didnt buy that one.I have lost 30% of my retirement from my picks so I may be jumping ship on stocks.I trusted a brokerage firm in commodities with $5100 the first week of February and my account shows the long value at $12,608.I may just go that route.It is obvious to me anything I buy,short of a few lucky buys, are going to lose me money.
Sorry to hear that Bottomfeeder...
How do you chosse the stocks you invest in? T/A? Fundies?
posted
"p.s. That NURO is one hellva pincher...and its getting some positive divergence from the MACD hooking.."
I'm watching like a hawk. Still hitting lower lows but there seems to be some attempts (watching fast stochs) that this is trying to consolidate and may start showing a base. 2.43 close and after hours 2.49. Needs some serious luv. Not enough indication yet for me to say it's ready but I'll be watching. I don't like giving MACD much reliability on a bouncer since the indicators bounce off eachother just when you think they may cross. The stoch family has been much more reliable.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich.- Land Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), has received $44 million in two work orders from Force Protection Inc. for contractor logistics and spare parts for the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program.
Force Protection (Nasdaq: FRPT) and General Dynamics have a partnership to share in the production and program management of the MRAP contract.
The contractor logistics support and spare parts are for maintaining the operational readiness rates of MRAP vehicles deployed with the U.S. armed forces overseas. MRAP spare parts will be ordered by field service technicians employed by General Dynamics Customer Service and Support Company operating from Shelby Township, Mich.
About Force Protection
Force Protection Inc. is a leading American designer, developer and manufacturer of life saving survivability equipment, predominantly ballistic-and blast-protected wheeled vehicles currently deployed by the U.S. military and its allies to support armed forces and security personnel in conflict zones. The Company’s specialty vehicles, the Cougar and the Buffalo, and the Cheetah, are designed specifically for reconnaissance, forward command and control, and urban operations and to protect their occupants from landmines, hostile fire, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs, commonly referred to as roadside bombs). The Company is one of the original developers and primary providers of vehicles for the U.S. military’s Mine Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicle program.
Not sure if this is good or bad...since they are giving the contract and not receiving...
Posts: 1075 | From: weeeeeeee | Registered: Sep 2007
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posted
That's a repeat Wea$el. Look back around Feb 4th.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
Alright took my $1300 loss at 3.45..theres a big seller and I wanted out. ;(
Posts: 1075 | From: weeeeeeee | Registered: Sep 2007
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quote:Originally posted by $tock Weazel: Alright took my $1300 loss at 3.45..theres a big seller and I wanted out. ;(
Umm that would be A LOT of sellers imo...
"In other words," Force Protection explained on Monday, "vehicles produced by our joint-venture partner are purchased by us from them at the sales price we sell the vehicles to the U.S. military -- resulting in a zero gross profit for such sales." Therefore, "although revenues increased significantly in 2007, we do not expect our net income to be significantly different than the $16.6 million that we reported for year ended Dec. 31, 2006." http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/aerospace-defense/10405895.html?cm_ ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Seems like a stinky pinky move doesn't it?
You may be looking at your loss as a gain soon enough somewhere else. Better to have sumtin den nuttin.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by $tock Weazel: Alright took my $1300 loss at 3.45..theres a big seller and I wanted out. ;(
Umm that would be A LOT of sellers imo...
"In other words," Force Protection explained on Monday, "vehicles produced by our joint-venture partner are purchased by us from them at the sales price we sell the vehicles to the U.S. military -- resulting in a zero gross profit for such sales." Therefore, "although revenues increased significantly in 2007, we do not expect our net income to be significantly different than the $16.6 million that we reported for year ended Dec. 31, 2006." http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/aerospace-defense/10405895.html?cm_ ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Seems like a stinky pinky move doesn't it?
You may be looking at your loss as a gain soon enough somewhere else. Better to have sumtin den nuttin.
I'm just happy it wasn't a bigger loss...Sure I coulda saved about $200.00 dollars and sold at 4.55..but unfortuntaley I don't have a frickin' crystal ball!!!!
posted
NURO - lol. Another one of my mistakes. I think I have about $40 left in that one. Just waiting and waiting. Check out SCA - had a buy in on that all day waiting for .57 Just might get it even lower tomorrow. That could end up in the .20's or lower if XL bails on them .... the sky sure is falling for them. Just look where they were last summer. They could use a bail out eh?
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
Tonights the night. Putting 3K in my account and shooting for the 3% chart posted here earlier. It's gonna take a few days to clear the account so no purchases probably until Thursday.
Posts: 492 | From: new york | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
First try is going to be KNX. It looks good at support. I need to hit $16.02 if I can get in at yesterdays close plus 10 bucks for trades.
Posts: 492 | From: new york | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
jgreco, assuming I understand what you mean about the 3% chart, just remember that the chart assumes a 100% success rate. That's obviously never going to happen. Even if you hit 60%, taht means 3 winners for every two losers, and only 3% or every 5 trades.
In otehr words, if you hit at a 60% clip, it will take you 5X the number of trades that the chart tells you. And that's if you limit your losers to 3% also. If you lose 9% on one trade, you have to hit 80% to make your 3%.
Point it, it's a lot harder than it sounds...
But we all try anyway! Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
Not sure if I anyone's pointed this out before, but this is wrong.
1.03^100 is just over 19, so 3000x19 = $57,000. You actually need 200 consecutive 3% trades to get to $1million. Not sure where surfer got his numbers.
quote:Originally posted by a surfer: Hey wdcisco....
Here are some things to ponder.
If you take $3000.00 and make 3% on 100 transactions in succession you will end up with $1,000,000.
Thats right... over a million on just 3%
3000 x 3% = 90 total $3090
3090 x 3% = 92.7 tot $3182.70
Do that 98 more times and you have over a mil.
This of course does not take into effect any transaction costs.
But it goes to show you time and persistence pay.
Also keep in mind that your round trip fees are going to add up to almost 5% at $14 per pop.
Good luck!!!
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
P.... Believe me I know I wouldn't get 200 consecutive winners. I have been probably around 60% on paper the past few weeks. 29 winners 11 losers. But a good thing to point out and I have no illusions here. I would not have the guts to put everything in if I get into high numbers. I was thinking if I even got up to 6K I would take out the original 3 to protect my investment and start over. I have fun doing this (losing money) I know I lost alot more than that the past year but I never stuck to my plan in that time. I would buy on a hunch or support but not support with indicators. Basically I screwed myself quite a few times and it was costly. So I figure I'd see how this goes. It was an up day for my pick but not enough yet.
Posts: 492 | From: new york | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
I've been watching some of the fins lately...
Yesterday Vs. 8 Feb MBI $12.18 was 14.60
ABK $8.70 was 10.99
SCA $0.77 was 2.00
FBR $2.29 was 3.08
FAC $3.19 was 3.98
AFFM $8.26 was 9.35
XL $34.40 was 42.68
ACAH $0.36 was .70
RBS $7.16 was 7.22
ramr $1.43 was 1.48 on 16 Feb
Not basing these off of their 52 week highs but wouldn't that be a neat trick to ride them right on back up eh??
Okay - so have we helped the shorts enough yet? Watch the news and start looking for solid bottoms. Couple mysteries still to go - especially with ABK and SCA. Couple more weeks???
Today Okay - so yeah... let's go with the couple more weeks thing. LMAO
Orrrrrrr has enough fear been sunk into these bond insurers that they might actually start agreeing to some help? XL is getting hit hard for hangin onto SCA and SCA is getting run through the ringer on its ratings - almost worthless if they don't get some help soon. Everyone looks to throw the towel in on ABK.... SOOOOO what to do - I know what I will be doing. Play these puppies like a pink. Watch for their bounces. I can't be around during the day anymore but I will be watching. Feel free to add suggestions and comments. Like "RUN!! RUN FAR FAR AWAY FORREST!!!!"
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
LMAO,maybe wait until middle of april if you wanna buy.Some critics say prices will stabilize and go back up half way into this year.Some years it seems to have an easing effect after tax day for buyers if the IRS is off their backs.If you wait for aditional pullbacks I would wait until it gets closer to that date.JMO but what do I know,usually not much but the dow will break 12000 and we still await on addititional cuts from the fed.
quote:Originally posted by Bottomfeeder: LMAO,maybe wait until middle of april if you wanna buy.Some critics say prices will stabilize and go back up half way into this year.Some years it seems to have an easing effect after tax day for buyers if the IRS is off their backs.If you wait for aditional pullbacks I would wait until it gets closer to that date.JMO but what do I know,usually not much but the dow will break 12000 and we still await on addititional cuts from the fed.
Here's my theory...
The market will respond to all of these stocks that are getting thrown in the gutter. Not just these but the bubble is losing pressure and they are coming down. Some may recover - some may try a split to recover, some may BK to recover - there will be a lot of tricks out there. I've been waiting for this since November. Been looking for 5 yr plus lows and here they are. A little here and a little there. I'm looking for lows and then plan on holding through the bears. Some may never see light again, some may recover with gusto. Pick your plays and see where they land. Flip out your original capital and hold some long - that is my strategy.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
okay, I'm throwing my hat in the ring here for paper trading. this will be things other than my form 4 plays. Gonna start with $5,000 of play money.
This is more for me to keep track than any kind of recommendations. There will be no consistent reason for why I'll post something here. Maybe a cetrain type of play, or just a gut feeling. I've noticed that if I concentrate on a handful of stocks on a watchlist, I get a good feel for how they're trading during the day, so if something happens I have a better feel for where it will go.
It's entirely possible (probable even...) thatit's all in my head and I only "remember" the good ones, so I'm testign that theory here.
Anyway, first one is 140 shares NIHD * $34.50 This one is a form 4 one that's down almost 15% since my form-4 triggerd it, so I'm hoping to play a bounce.
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
hmm.. i see there's quite a few of us now doing the paper trading thing.. do you guys think it would be useful to have one place where we can post & track our trades?
not necessarily to have a ranking or a race or anything like that, but a simple and effective way to keep track of trades (times & amounts) and profits/losses..
-------------------- the market is not your mother Posts: 1282 | From: Montreal | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by fourseven: hmm.. i see there's quite a few of us now doing the paper trading thing.. do you guys think it would be useful to have one place where we can post & track our trades?
not necessarily to have a ranking or a race or anything like that, but a simple and effective way to keep track of trades (times & amounts) and profits/losses..
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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quote:Originally posted by PCola77: okay, I'm throwing my hat in the ring here for paper trading. this will be things other than my form 4 plays. Gonna start with $5,000 of play money.
I'm putting a little here and a little there. When I can free it up. Picked up a little more on the major indices. Will be buying through the crash of '08 (LOL) looking for the long term gain. I am forecasting this to last through mid summer but some of these bottoms will only be here and then disappear. Still keeping some flip cash around too - specially for some pinks!
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
Just a place where you input symbol, date/time, price, # of shares. I keep my own spreadsheet, but a central place where some of us could see how we're all doing would be cool.
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006
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posted
i second that, Weasel.. i had trouble taking losses, but eventually i came up with a rational explanation that was plain enough to convince me.
check this out:
(A) is the original trade, where i went long. (B) is right now, where i'm sitting on a loss
i have a choice today: sell, or hold.
if i hold, i'll probably sell somewhere near (D), once the price is close to the original buy price again, and i'll be relieved as heck not to have lost too much of my capital.
if i sell today at a loss, and keep watching the stock, chances are i'll be tempted to buy back in somewhere around (C) having done that, i'll probably sell near (D). as long as i kept my original loss small, i'll end up with a net gain..
and yes, though this is an especially prudent technique in a bear market, it works well in a bull market too.. worst case, you miss out on some potential gain and most of the potential loss
-------------------- the market is not your mother Posts: 1282 | From: Montreal | Registered: Mar 2006
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