posted
My overall thoughts are all the way down, hope this helps guys. I love this pick, unfortunately I'm not in it lol, because all my money is stuck in dead stock or stocks I'm down on. Can you believe that one lol?
Natrol Inc. Symbol: NTOL Exchange: NasdaqGM Investment Style: Micro-Cap Sector: Health Care Industry: Drug-Related Products Current Price: $4.00
Company Profile: Natrol, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and marketing of dietary supplements, herbal teas, and sports nutrition products. Its dietary supplements include vitamins, minerals, hormonal supplements, herbal products, and specialty combination formulas under the Natrol brand name. The company's sports nutrition products include supplements to gain and lose weight, as well as to improve muscle mass and muscle definition. It offers its sports nutrition products under Prolab brand. The company also sells flavored herbal tea under the Laci Le Beau brand. In addition, Natrol offers men's and women's hair regrowth products under the Nu Hair and Shen Min brands; and red clover isoflavones-based products for the relief of menopausal symptoms, and for the maintenance of bone, heart, prostate, and urinary health under the Promensil and Trinovin brands. Further, the company sells nutraceutical grade ingredients, such as garlic to other manufacturers of nutrition products, and provides contract manufacturing services to companies within the nutraceutical industry. Natrol sells its products through health food stores; mass-market drug, club, retail, and grocery store chains; independent catalogs; Internet shopping sites; sports nutrition retail stores; fitness centers; and distributors in the United States and internationally. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Chatsworth, California.
Natrol Inc. 21411 Prairie Street Chatsworth, CA 91311 United States - Map Phone: 818-739-6000 Fax: 818-739-6001 Web Site: http://www.natrol.com
Key Statistics: 52 Week Range: $1.39-$4.09 Average Volume: 42,136(3M) Market Cap: 56.6M P/E: 133 EPS: .03 Shares Outstanding: 14.15M % Held by institutions: 49% Cash Dividend: N/A
Revenues Fiscal Year (millions): 2004: 79.3 2005: 67.5 2006: 65.6
Earnings Per Share: 2004: .13 2005: (.20) 2006: .03
5 Year Chart
CEO Background Information New CEO came in on Feb 16, 2006. The name is Wayne Bos.
40 years old and likes to create shareholder value through acquisitions. Performance oriented CEO who is innovative and aggressive. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- http://www.firstmonday.org/issues/issue6_3/doheny/ For Sausage Software, this phase probably commenced with the appointment of Wayne Bos as Director in January 1999. Although Outtrim had floated Sausage in 1996 in an attempt to put the company on a firm business footing, corporate Australia had not been impressed by his lack of business experience and Sausage's fortunes had languished, with shares plummeting from a high of $2.75 to a low of 8.5 cents (Cave, 1999, p. 22). Bos, in the space of nine months, migrated the company from a one-product former wonder to a flourishing Web business. He presided over the purchase of six other Web-based companies and boosted projected turnover from $5 million to $35 million (Cave, 1999, p. 22). According to Cave, writing in September 1999, the difference between Outtrim and Bos was the latter's "experience with balance sheets and big budgets ... He wears the uniform and speaks the language of corporate Australia. He brings to Sausage the corporate credibility and depth of experience it desperately needed" (Cave, 1999, p. 22). Bos's appointment marked the end of Sausage as a "cottage industry". -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
http://www.npicenter.com/anm/templates/newsATemp.aspx?articleid=14906&zoneid=12 "Natrol could not have attracted a more dynamic, innovative and accomplished leader than Wayne Bos to accelerate our growth," said Mr. Balbert, Natrol's Founder and Executive Chairman. "Wayne's global track record is one of growth -- in industries ranging from technology, telecommunications and finance to chemicals, media and consumer products. Now Wayne and I are setting our sights on the multibillion-dollar U.S. nutraceutical market that independent analysts expect to continue its robust growth. I greatly look forward to working with Wayne as we endeavor to make the most of this remarkable opportunity." In conjunction with his nomination, Mr. Bos has been awarded 6,029,500 fully vested options with a strike price of $2.282. The grant price reflects the market price of Natrol's stock at the time of the grant. For a period of three years, Mr. Bos's ability to sell the majority of the shares he receives upon exercise of these options is restricted, with the restrictions lapsing based upon the stock price reaching defined hurdles. The grant is subject to shareholder approval.
Among his most notable successes, Mr. Bos worked closely with the management team of Uniqema, a division of Imperial Chemical Industries in London, to complete an acquisition of one of the business units. Following completion of the acquisition in 2000, Symex Holdings Limited was established as a 100 percent owned Australian company and successfully listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Today, Symex is Australia's largest producer of Oleo products. Mr. Bos also served as CEO and Director of Sausage Software, an Australian public company. Under his leadership, Sausage grew from a single product company with 35 people and revenues of $5 million, to an eBusiness solutions house with over 1500 people and revenues of more than $150 million. Sausage Software, with wholly owned subsidiaries in the UK, USA and Asia, became Australia's fastest growing company as it grew to a market capitalization of more than $2 billion during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Mr. Bos is a founding member of the World Economic Forum's Technology Pioneers Network. He became a founding director of the Technology Empowerment Network (TEN) with a focus on the Digital Divide, a project of the WEF. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
2000 Melbourne Press Club Quill Award
Best business story in any medium for report on Sausage Software. . .
Sausage was the first of the new breed of Internet companies in this country [Australia] to turn a profit. Under the Bos-Hoskins stewardship, it was the focal point for a series of deals done and undone that helped it rise dramatically from a 25-cent also-ran to a star performer, where its market capitalisation peaked briefly above $2 billion. . .
Mr Outtrim brought in the other two men at various times to help lift a promising but moribund company that was selling his HotDog web authoring software worldwide on the Internet and doing little else.
They have since created a range of business-related software products and built it into a busy company with 250 employees and a $58 million sales turnover. . .
They brought in Intel, Telstra and St George Bank as backers, brokered the failed merger with Telstra-backed Solution 6 and finally organised a deal that backed David Lloyd Roberts' SMS Consulting group into Sausage with a controlling 17.5 per cent interest. . .
Mr Outtrim invited Mr Bos aboard in March 1999, offering half of his own 70 per cent holding for $2500 if Mr Bos could double Sausage's 25-cent share price and keep it there.
Mr Bos was almost unknown to all outside the Internet world in Brisbane, where he had run his own technology integrating company. He immediately started cutting deals that turned the pair into paper multi-millionaires within weeks.
He began an acquisition spree and then persuaded Telstra to take a 10 per cent stake with an option to move to 40 per cent.
Exactly one year on, the shares spiked at $8.20. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
Chart Since Wayne Bos took over as CEO on February 16, 2006
3) Natrol Acquires Medical Research Institute Tuesday June 5, 6:00 am ET http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070605/20070605005576.html?.v=1 Seems like an excellent deal and a good acquisition. “The acquisition provides for an initial purchase price of $8.0 million in cash, and allows for potential earn-out payments based upon the achievement of certain levels of EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) over the next three years. The Company noted that, at present, MRI has working capital of approximately $8.6 million including cash of approximately $4.0 million and no debt. In 2006, MRI recorded revenue of approximately $21.4 million with operating income of $3.1 million. It is expected that the transaction will be immediately accretive. In the last 7 months, MRI has launched a range of new leading edge products to the market.”
This is significant as she has 29 years of experience in the marketing industry for top brands such as Pfizer and Playtex. She also has a great reputation, “Ms. Kurjanowicz has been often recognized for her excellence and has received a Top 100 Marketer Award from Advertising Age. She also worked on an advertising campaign that received the Silver Effie Award and developed a new product that received the Edison Award for Best New Product.
10.5% increase in sales from first quarter of 2006, and gross profit margin increased from 40.7% in the prior year to 47% this quarter. The Company reported first quarter operating income of $744,000, a margin of 4.0%, versus a small operating loss in the year-ago quarter and noted that pre-tax income rose to $555,000 versus the year-ago level of $118,000. First quarter net income increased to $340,000 versus just $73,000 in the same quarter of 2006. Mr. Bos continued, “We are pleased by our progress, but remain intently focused on implementing strategies to continue growth and further improve our profitability. Shortly after the close of the first quarter, we successfully executed a sale and leaseback of our real estate properties which netted approximately $12.0 million in cash. It is our intent to use this capital to fund new growth initiatives.” Mr. Bos concluded, “We will continue to instill a culture of operating discipline and growth throughout our organization. We believe that Natrol has a compelling opportunity within the global marketplace for nutritional supplements. We intend to take full advantage of the global wellness trend to maximize returns for our shareholders.”
Future growth is poised from this joint venture. The impact will not be seen immediately. Wayne Bos, Natrol’s President and CEO, commented “We believe that the market opportunity for our products in China and the Asian region is extremely compelling. Chinese culture has, for thousands of years, understood and accepted the wisdom of herbs for wellness. The combination of this traditional affinity for healthy-living products and the capabilities of our leading brands across an array of products are a natural fit. While this effort will take time to properly develop and it is not expected to be meaningful to our results over the near term, we are planting the seeds for future growth. We have known our joint venture partners in this effort for many years and are impressed with their track record, which includes a number of successful business endeavors. We look forward to this project. We believe that Natrol has the opportunity to be a global leader in the wellness market and this is an excellent step in that direction.”
9) Natrol Launches Line of Lemon-Flavored Omega-3 Fish Oils as Great-Tasting, Pure, Potent Products for Heart Health April 11, 2007 http://www.natrol.com/pr2007/pr-041107/
10) Natrol Enters into Exclusive Manufacturing and Distribution Arrangement for H57™ Hoodia Oct 26 ,2006 http://www.natrol.com/pr2006/pr061026/ “We are delighted with this exclusive arrangement involving H57 Hoodia,“ said Wayne M. Bos, Natrol’s President and CEO. “It is another important step in Natrol’s corporate development, and demonstrates our commitment to systematic implementation of our strategic growth plans. This arrangement will strengthen our presence in one of the biggest categories, weight control, and enable Natrol to develop broader and deeper-penetrating marketing programs.” Kelly Lockwood, CEO of H57 Nutrition, said, “With the increased consumer demand for South African Hoodia-based products, we are confident that our arrangement with Natrol will enable us to meet the future demands of our customers.” Mr. Lockwood continued, “We are thrilled to work with such an excellent company in the dietary supplement industry. H57 is already a household name, and we believe our association with Natrol will take it to a new level.”
Wayne M. Bos, President and CEO of Natrol, stated, “We are excited about our acquisition of the U.S. rights to Promensil and Trinovin. This acquisition expands Natrol’s product reach and capabilities with extensive science that will leverage our promise to provide premium benefits to our customers with quality and reliability.” He added, “We will capitalize on our strengths in operations, marketing, sales and distribution to build upon the market presence already established for these brands.”
12) Natrol Expands with the Acquisition of Nu Hair® and Shen Min® from Biotech Corporation October 13, 2006 http://www.natrol.com/pr2006/061013/
“Natrol, a premier manufacturer and distributor of nationally branded nutritional products, today announced the acquisition of the Nu Hair and Shen Min brands from Biotech Corporation in Connecticut. Nu Hair and Shen Min are the number one brands being sold nationally within the men’s and women’s hair growth category for natural products. “This acquisition of the successful Nu Hair and Shen Min brands supports one of Natrol’s key growth objectives: strategic acquisitions. Addition of the brands will provide Natrol the opportunity to expand in the hair growth category for natural products”, stated Wayne M. Bos, President and CEO of Natrol. He added, “Nu Hair and Shen Min are quality brands that will leverage Natrol’s expertise in sales and marketing, coupled with its strong distribution in mass market and health food channels.” 13) Natrol Announces New $10 Million Credit Facility September 5, 2006 http://www.natrol.com/pr2006/pr060905/
“As we continue with our strategy of solidifying our core business, and developing growth platforms from a position of strength, a commitment to the European marketplace is clearly appropriate,” stated Wayne Bos, President and Chief Executive Officer of Natrol, Inc. “Less than 10% of our revenue is derived from international sales today. Establishment of Natrol UK Ltd. will allow us to pursue additional organic revenue growth overseas. We will continue to support current distribution while capitalizing upon new opportunities. Our new presence, coupled with Margaret Peet’s outstanding leadership and industry experience, will provide greater local capability and a better understanding of the marketplace, our customers and our distributor network.”
15) RENOWNED GROWTH COMPANY LEADER WAYNE BOS JOINS NATROL AS CEO DESIGNATE Feb 16, 2006 http://www.natrol.com/pr2006/pr060216/ “I am tremendously excited to be joining Natrol Founder and Executive Chairman Elliott Balbert and the rest of the Natrol team as we embark on achieving three primary objectives – to develop Natrol as a solid, profitable growth company, to focus on growing internationally and to ensure that we are opportunistic with regard to acquisitions,” Mr. Bos said. “We will be laser-focused on achieving sustainable, profitable growth while maximizing the value we bring to our shareholders, partners and customers.”
Industry Research Summary of Findings 18 World Market for Vitamins, Nutritional Supplements, and Hematinic Preparations for Human Use: 2001 - 2011 Year World Market US $ mln ________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________ 2001 27,982.83 2002 27,924.05 2003 27,873.77 2004 27,833.58 2005 27,926.96 2006 28,774.74 2007 29,780.28 2008 30,824.92 2009 31,910.32 2010 33,038.22 2011 34,210.45 ________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________ Source: Philip M. Parker, INSEAD, copyright 2005, www.icongrouponline.com
Worldwide Market Potential for Vitamins, Nutritional Supplements, and Hematinic Preparations for Human Use (US $ mln): 2006
2.1 THE WORLDWIDE MARKET POTENTIAL Worldwide Market Potential for Vitamins, Nutritional Supplements, and Hematinic Preparations for Human Use (US $ mln): 2006 Region US $ mln % of Globe ________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________ Americas 9,672 33.6 Asia 9,192 31.9 Europe 7,256 25.2 Middle East 1,167 4.1 Africa 1,126 3.9 Oceana 360 1.3 Total 28,775 100.0 ________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________
Overall Thoughts on Natrol Inc.
I believe that Natrol Inc is a strong long term buy. The appointment of Wayne Bos as CEO on February 16, 2007 is a key reason why the company has had a strong turnaround in shareholder value. It is apparent that Wayne Bos’s business plan is to create shareholder value through key joint ventures and acquisitions that will produce strong bottom line earnings. Besides Wayne Bos’s excellent track record, the recent actions of the company illustrate his competence in achieving shareholder value. It is also important to note that Wayne Bos as of June 8, 2006 owns 6,029,500 shares of the common stock, 42% of the 14,150,000 shares outstanding. Obviously, being such a large shareholder, it is in Wayne Bos’s best interest to see share price increase. Natrol acquired MRI for only 8 million in Cash, which I believe is a steal. MRI has a working capital of approximately $8.6 million, including cash of approximately $4.0 million and no debt. In 2006, MRI recorded revenue of approximately $21.4 million with operating income of $3.1 million. As a result, this acquisition should add around $.19-.21 annually to Natrol’s bottom line. Furthermore, the $8 million in Cash was funded by the sale of the company’s real estate holdings, which the company netted $12 million as a result of the sale earlier in the year As an extremely conservative estimate based off of 2006’s earnings per share, annual bottom line earnings per share for 2008 would be around .22-.24. Price in a conservative 25 P/E (the stock is currently at a 133 P/E) and shares should be valued at $5.50-$6.00. It is important to note that this estimate is assuming no growth from 2006 and just the addition of earnings from the MRI acquisition (none of their other acquisitions or joint ventures). Net earnings in the future should be much higher due to the company expanding into the Chinese market through a joint venture, and having a larger marketing presence in Europe. The company also acquired the rights of different supplement brands as well as entering into exclusive manufacturing and distribution arrangements for other popular products. The company also acquired Nu Hair and Shen Min brands from Biotech Corporation. Nu Hair and Shen Min are the number one brands being sold nationally within the men’s and women’s hair growth category for natural products. As a result, even though the current P/E may seem to be very high, a forward P/E calculation would be much lower. A big addition to the management team was Chris Kurjanowicz, as Vice President of Marketing. Her 29 years of experience in top positions at reputable companies, such as Pfizer and Playtex, should help increase sales. The industry for their nutritional supplements and other natural products is a rapidly growing segment with $28 billion in sales worldwide. Wayne Bos is intending to capture as much of the market as possible, through United States sales, expanding their presence in Europe, and setting up a platform for future sales in China. These markets make up 90.7% of the industry. Wayne Bos has said in many press releases that seeking out potential acquisition and joint ventures is his goal for achieving rapid growth and expansion into the U.S. and international markets. Earnings per share should accelerate rapidly in the near future as the MRI merger, along with the other acquisitions and joint ventures begin to bring in new revenue and profits. As a result, I expect share price to increase dramatically over the next year.
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lol people have no problem jumping into stocks where i said get in now, dd later, but I post all of my own original DD and thoughts and no one replies lol
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quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: lol people have no problem jumping into stocks where i said get in now, dd later, but I post all of my own original DD and thoughts and no one replies lol
Stocktrader...maybe no one is replying because you started this thread by telling everyone here that you have no cash, and that you are holding too many loser stocks right now...just a thought. LOL
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It's all in the timing... Posts: 4303 | From: DSA | Registered: Dec 2003
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quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: lol people have no problem jumping into stocks where i said get in now, dd later, but I post all of my own original DD and thoughts and no one replies lol
Stocktrader...maybe no one is replying because you started this thread by telling everyone here that you have no cash, and that you are holding too many loser stocks right now...just a thought. LOL
Hahah look at my track record buddy, it'll do you good. Recently I just got into a little rut with some, I'm not down big on any of them except AMRN which will easily turn around and Ill make money. Its just that I never sell a stock im barely in the red for until I at least break even. Thats just how I play the game. It's cool though I just posted a ton of legit DD and thoughts, take it for what its worth, but I'm one of the best investors on this website with pretty consistent winners.
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And also let me say that NTOL is a good buy, just when the chart shows entry, probably not right now. I never bet against competent CEO's with a proven track record.
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LOL sorry to take it out on you...I'm just pissed that I can't get any attention on this DD I did. It took more than 5 minutes and copying from an ihub post ya know.
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Well this one is close to home ST22. Literally, I live 15 minutes from these guys and had a chemist friend who used to work there.
In fact, in college, a few friends worked there in various jobs- clerical, warehouse, etc...
Never even crossed my mind that they were public.
I thought the only companies in Chatsworth trading publicly were 3M and Boeing. Wow, learn something new every day...
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