posted
Could someone take a look at this one and tell me what you think?
Jul 5, 2006 4:51:03 PM
HOUSTON, July 5, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ --
Grey Wolf, Inc. (Amex: GW) invites you to join Thomas P. Richards, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer and David W. Wehlmann, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Tuesday, August 1, 2006 at 9:00 a.m. CT for a discussion of operating results for the second quarter 2006. Grey Wolf will release earnings after the market closes on July 31, 2006.
Following the presentation there will be a question and answer period. Date: August 1, 2006 Time: 9:00 a.m. CT Dial-In Number: Domestic: 888-391-0237 International: 212-676-5415 Reservation Number: 21297414
Please call ten minutes ahead of time to ensure proper connection. The conference call will be recorded and available for replay at 11:00 a.m. CT on August 1, 2006 until 11:00 a.m. CT on August 3, 2006. To hear the recording, please call (800) 633-8284 domestically or (402) 977-9140 internationally and enter access code 21297414.
The call will also be webcast live on the Internet through our website at: www.gwdrilling.com
The call will be available for replay through our website for approximately two weeks after the conclusion of the call. A copy of our earnings release will also be available on our website.
If you have any questions, please call David W. Wehlmann with Grey Wolf at (713) 435-6100.
Some minor potential. I strongly disagree with this "record revenue" claim. Of concern is their net profit is not all that good compared to the amount of capital investment in rigs and such.
I would expect this one to move back up to 7.00 per share within five to ten days. There is some potential for a move to 7.50 per share after a release of a decent 10Q in keeping with their last 10Q filing.
I would not write, "very interesting" about this company. Some interest, yes, but this one appears to be a very slow growth company. Doubtful there will be any major moves, soon. Possibly a move up to 7.00 in the near term, but no guarantee.
Might be some potential in this new interest of reworking old fields, opening fields which proved less viable at lower oil prices. Lot of competition in the drilling industry.
This one trades in a tight range, percentage wise. I would expect this tight range to continue.
Readers are advised to carefully consider this insurance adjustment for a rig which caught fire and burned. This adjustment should NOT be viewed as a gain but rather a reduction of loss through a one time insurance payment event. Bottom line is the company did take a loss on this, but a reduced loss because of insurance. I am always annoyed when an insurance adjustment is claimed on the positive net revenue side of balance sheets. Belongs there, yes, but creates confusion for readers who view this as a positive. Often, items of this nature make a balance sheet look better than reality. Number crunching is a good idea to develop a true feel for financial status.
Think the company insurance rate will increase? If like our insurance, which increases for every loss reported, I would think rates will increase.
Seems an ok company, financials are acceptable. Again, I do have some concerns net profits are not a greater amount. This company is right on the borderline of reporting losses, mild however.
posted
"How do you think the August first reporting will affect things considering the info you have already expressed?"
Ah, you are asking for predictions! This is your job with this being your thread!
I will comment I do not think traders will lose money on this one at _current_ prices. Looks share price is about as low as prices will dip.
Some typical behaviors would be if the next 10Q is almost exactly like the last, little change in share price, maybe a little upward movement because of improving trader confidence.
A 10Q of lesser net profit, quite the opposite.
However, those are simple notions which we expect and apply to a majority of _healthy_ companies. This is a healthy company presenting few risks.
On my comments about net profits, readers should look at this, not in dollars, but rather in pure percentages. A rough estimate of the ratio of revenue returns compared to capital invested provides a more realistic notion; you are not overwhelmed by dollars in the millions.
As written, this is an ok company, clearly well established and doing just fine. I would not expect a skyrocket, but, who knows? Next 10Q could be great, or miserable.
A problem here, at seven bucks a share, roughly, is traders must dump a lot of money into this company to realize worthwhile profits on rise.
Share price going up fifty cents a share appears to be impressive but is not, from a percentage gain perspective.
You buy five-hundred shares for $3500 and realize a fifty cent per share profit. What is your total profit amount? $250 right? What is your final realized _percentage_ gain on your money?
To make this a worthwhile percentage gain in profits, traders need buy a minimum 5,000 shares, or better, 10,000 shares. That is a lot of money placed at risk for a small percentage return.
Risks are low, yes. This is a comfortable stock. However, traders will tie up a lot of money for a good period of time for low percentage return.
Trading stocks is not about dollar amounts. Trading stocks is about percentage gain over a period of time.
quote:Originally posted by Zeusdafreak: Looks like a reasonable play. Thanks for the documents. The second one is VERY interesting.
Great pick Zeus.. Regarding financials, IMO they will hit record highs, purely because of increase in prices over the quarter.. my concern is sector. this sector is being beaten downto death by everyone.. funds moving in and out too fast in this sector. too much volatility. although revenues might be record high, the stock might not significantly rise because again, uncertainity on the prices of oil and natural gas.. hate the way market is for this sector.. thats what I feel..
-------------------- All my posts are based on my own opinions and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations.
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posted
"...because of increase in prices over the quarter."
You are neglecting to advise readers increase in prices is passing on of increasing costs; a net zero sum, a wash. If anything, a net increase in loss for a company because of escalating hourly wage costs, beyond increasing material costs.
This is why I commented not too long back you cannot be trusted; you do not play it straight.
quote:Originally posted by Purl Gurl: "...because of increase in prices over the quarter."
You are neglecting to advise readers increase in prices is passing on of increasing costs; a net zero sum, a wash. If anything, a net increase in loss for a company because of escalating hourly wage costs, beyond increasing material costs.
This is why I commented not too long back you cannot be trusted; you do not play it straight.
Purl Gurl
look at the sector.. look at financials of other companies in the same sector.. profit margins have significantly increased over past quarter and present quarter, purely because of increase in price of gas.. thats what has helped oil and natural gas companies post record profits over last quarter and this quarter.. this shall happen to GW too.. regarding trusted.. I have said it many times earlier.. and i say it again.. i dont care if you trust me or not.. i say it the way i see it.. some people agree to my analysis.. some dont.. but i have been correct more times than i was wrong..
-------------------- All my posts are based on my own opinions and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations.
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posted
Thanks for the prediction. I am new to all this and I want to learn. This is what this forum is all about - learning from each other. I have been following Jo's stock opinions thread and appreciate the input by all regarding that thread as well.
I guess since I'm just getting started with a net gain/loss of ZERO I was looking towards a couple of small solid ones to get me into to black to start. This IMHO will give a little cushion if you will to play with and allow me to practice not only buying/selling etc for the first time but also practice in the area of research.
The conflicting views of the above price vs. costs is GREAT for us new guys just starting out. Its good to see different viewpoints to teach others how to do their own DD more acurately since my background is in Production Management and no in finance. I have a lot to learn and I know it.
To answer your question I guess I was looking for a 5-15% increase over shorter term (maybe 1-4 weeks) to start. I would be happy with that. Thanks again for the analysis/viewpoint. It is appreciated.
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posted
Zeus... keep a watch on isig.. it has had record revenues.. watch its rsi to approach to around 65-66 range. i know its very tight but chart is mega bullish.. should give you an easy bounce from here IMO.. GLTY!
-------------------- All my posts are based on my own opinions and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations.
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posted
"To answer your question I guess I was looking for a 5-15% increase over shorter term (maybe 1-4 weeks)"
This is a good goal, a safe goal. You probably will successfully attain your goal within the time frame you indicate.
A bit of green this morning on high volume. This high volume will moderate prices effecting very slow movement, either up or down. This provides a safety net of not having to worry about extreme volatility which is of higher risk. A slow motion stock like this gives you ample chance to either sell or to buy, in relative safety.
My opinion is you will do just fine on this GW stock provided you bought or buy at _current_ lower prices.
posted
Zeusdafreak, your stock pick performed very well today. Up almost six pecent and right at my projected price of 7.00 per which I did not expect until later in the week.
This fast rise on high volume, this fast rise for a slow moving value stock "suggests" share price may move to 7.50 before the 10Q release.
Should volume remain the same and share price continue to creep upward, this is an indication traders are buying in anticipation of the next 10Q filing due very soon.
No guarantee, of course, but signals today are positive for your pick. Good job.
posted
Well. I watched it throughout the day and it never dropped down to my limit buy point. I was thinking it may drop off a little this afternoon and I was in 2 different meetings this afternoon from about 1:30 on. I missed the 5+ percent today because of I was busy working this morning. I agree with you on this one. I believe it will continue to climb until the release tomorrow but I don't know if another 5% is in order.
I sure wished I had taking the time this morning but oh well. There's always tomorrow.
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posted
I'm going to step out on a limb here and say that this one is now starting to fall. My chart shows the selling pressure is greater than the buying
posted
I'm not so sure. I feel like the after hours will cause this one to run early again tomorrow and flatten out even quicker than it did today but hey what do I know.
It has moved up close to 10% in the last 2 days. I am on the fence about just holding this on until the Aug 1st meeting. That is 4 trading days away. It would be nice if it continued its trend upwards. I hope your wrong about the chart. I think it still has plenty of room to go.
Oh wise ones. Take a peek into that crystal ball and us when this think will fall. LOL
posted
Well since market opened Monday morning stock has gone from 6.59 to 7.33. I'm happy with this one. Wonder when it will turn? Does it have the potential to continue up until August 1st?
posted
I have loaded a "Jaywalk" report for you to my server. This is a PDF file which should open for you without problems (Acrobat Reader) if your system is not over five or ten years old.
posted
Man that is some neat stuff. Thanks for posting it. I didn't even know I had access to that until you showed it to me. I then went and found it on my own. That is going to be a very helpful tool. Keep it coming. You have no idea how helpful you have been.
Up a bit more today at close.
"Thanks for keeping us from wizzin' on our feet,uuhh, by the tree,wind, aahhh the hell with it!"
[ July 26, 2006, 19:39: Message edited by: Zeusdafreak ]
Jaywalk is quite reliable and represents a composite view adding more validity. Their report is rather positive for GW stock.
When someone, like you, provides a decent stock pick, I enjoy providing support. So far, I have found nothing negative about this company, Grey Wolf. This does not mean share prices will skyrocket but does mean I remain very comfortable suggesting this stock to others, when bought at a reasonable and safe share price.
Only slight concern, perhaps a silly concern, is I would like to see an improvement in GW net profit. Nonetheless, GW earnings are quite impressive; a solid safe company.
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