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************************ DECISION POINT MARKET POSTURE **********************
The following is the market posture suggested by our mechanical trend- following tools. These are not trading recommendations, rather they are price activity flags that should be qualified by chart analysis. The Trend Model is used for indexes designated with an asterisk (*). Otherwise the Thrust/Trend Model is used. (See Glossary for details of each model.)
The purpose of this section is for an "at-a-glance" review of market indicators. The ratings/signals are based on simple algorithms that analyze arbitrary ranges and direction. ALWAYS LOOK AT THE CHARTS! The number to the right of each signal is the number of calendar days for the signal.
SEASONALITY ----------------------------- IT Seasonality..............: Favorable until 5/1/2006 ST Seasonality..............: Favorable from 1/31 to 2/7
SENTIMENT INDICATORS ----------------------------- Wall Street Sentiment Survey: 25% Bulls 50% Bears (12/30) AAII Investor...............: 29% Bulls 40% Bears (1/4) Investors Intelligence......: 56% Bulls 24% Bears (12/30) Short Interest Ratio(Dec 15): 5.4 (5.0 or greater is bullish.) Bollinger PVI (OEX).........: 1.98 (2.0 or greater is BUY Signal) Bollinger PVI (CBOE)........: 1.46 (2.0 or greater is BUY Signal) Gold (CEF Prem/Discount)....: +7.6% Premium to NAV - Sentiment Bullish
MISCELLANEOUS INDICATORS ----------------------------- Adv Vol/Decl Vol............: 4.1 (9.0 or greater is very bullish) 10 DMA of Adv/Declines......: 1.71 (2.0 or greater is very bullish) S&P 5-Day Price Momentum....: +2.5% (+7.5% or greater is very bullish) Weeks of Member Net Buying..: 1 Wks; Cum Total: 35,515,000 shrs (12/16) 1-Day Arms Index............: 0.72 (2.0 or greater is ST bullish) 10-DMA Arms Index...........: 1.17 (1.5 or greater is IT bullish)
Below we present two sets of cycle projections. One is based on the NOMINAL count, which assumes that 9-Month Cycle intervals are constant, and, while price lows can deviate short-term, ultimately they are drawn back to the constant interval. The PRICE count adjusts the current projections to the price lows that appear to be the actual cycle troughs in the current cycle.
This section ranks market indexes by Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) relative strength so that we can observe rotational trends and identify the sectors that are gaining or losing strength.
SHORT-TERM (PMO) and LONG-TERM (PMM) SIGNAL COMPARISONS
The Price Momentum Model (PMM) signal provides guidance regarding the longer-term trend, and the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) signals identify the shorter-term trend. A logical trading methodology is to open positions on new PMO signals when they are compatable with the PMM signals. Positions may be closed or hedged when the PMM and PMO signals are in conflict.
This section compares the PMO and PMM signals side by side and provides some mechanical analysis. A "Warn!" flag is an alert that the PMO signal is in conflict with the PMM -- closing or hedging the PMM position may be considered. A "Buy?" or "Sell?" flag is an alert that the PMO signal has just changed and is the same as the PMM signal -- opening new PMM positions may be considered.
The list is sorted in order of PMO relative strength.
SUMMARY OF SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM SIGNALS FOR MARKET AND SECTOR INDEXES
**************************************************************************** CLICK HERE for complete documentation on this report. ****************************************************************************
DEFINITIONS
Signl: The signal designations of BUY and SELL indicate the current direction of momentum and are not an indication that continuous buying or selling should take place.
Cal Days Elap: Indicates the number of calendar days that have elapsed since the current signal was initiated.
High P/L: Highest profit or least loss experienced since the current signal was initiated. On the first day of a new signal the P/L displayed is the closing P/L for the prior signal.
Today P/L: Current profit or loss for the signal since it was initiated. On the first day of a new signal the P/L displayed is the closing P/L for the prior signal.
The Hot/Cold grouping ranks securities/indexes into six (6) groups ranging from 1 (Hot) to 6 (Cold) according to price strength, internal strength, and relative strength. We can quickly assess the condition of these elements by the group number and "blinker" fields. Moving from left to right: The first blinker tells us if the PMO is above (+) or below (-) its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA). The second blinker indicates if the closing price is above (+) or below (-) it's 20-DMA. The third and fourth blinkers tell us if the PMO is rising (+) or falling (-), and if it is above (+) or below (-) zero. The fifth blinker tells us if the 5-day PMO rank change is positive (+), negative (-), or no change ( ). Groups 1-3 should be considered as buy candidates, 4-6 as sell candidates.
We make every effort to insure the accuracy of this information, but we cannot guarantee it. It is always possible that errors will creep in. If it doesn't make sense, let us know about it. Also, we make every effort to upload this data each market day, but it may not be possible due to circumstances beyond our control.
**************************************************************************** THE PUBLISHER OF THIS NEWSLETTER IS NOT A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR. INFORMATION HEREIN IS INTENDED TO ASSIST RESEARCH AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. ****************************************************************************
Posts: 9110 | From: boston, ma | Registered: Jan 2004
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