posted
That is just based on a conservative sub number topping out at 40 million in future.
Doesn't include any additional revenue from other sources.
80 million subs would put them over $12 billion per year making them a giant in the media.
Considering you have 200 million people watching cable TV, 40 million only is a very conservative amount. Don't forget down the road , XM and Sirius will probably be selling units that pick up each others stations.
So another words , they can both wind up with the same 80 million subs for over $12 billion per year in revenue.
This would translate into a stock price well above $50 per share.
IP: Logged |
posted
i would be surprised if SIRI ever topped $50 a share. i find it impossible to believe that 40% of the people that subscribe to cable will ever get satellite radio.
also, SIRI's revs last Q were $52M, and the cost of that revenue was $168M. your $12B in revs number would translate into 60x their current revs, annualized from the last Q. that strikes me as a lot, i would think SIRI has greater than a 1-2% penetration your numbers would imply.
then again, my car radio only works periodically if i whack it in just the right place, and that's fine with me - i just don't care that much about car radio. i just want to listen to the news or NPR occasionally and don't need 500 stations or whatever. so, i'm probably a bad person to comment on this, what the hell do i know.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I might be wrong but why would younger kids even want satelite radio? People can just download songs on an MP3 and listen to the music without commercials.
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
| IP: Logged |
<golfman>
unregistered
posted
Uh.......... Satellite radio does not have commercials on the music channels. That is one of the big reasons of getting it over FM radio.
Downloading songs? You can never download millions of songs that are played on all of the music channels they offer. And most don't wanna be bothered downloading songs all the time and keep updating them anyway. I don't.
MP3's and Ipods don't have the sports or entertainment channels. Just music.
Well I doubt very much when people get new cars in a few years that they will ask for FM radio over Satellite radio. That is like staying with Basic tv over cable tv. It's not gonna happen.
IP: Logged |
posted
I looked at XM and Siri years ago and maybe it's just me, but I don't think people are willing to pay $10 a month for radio, now if their service was $5 a month they may get many more takers.
I started an ISP in 1994 in St Louis, built it to 14k customers before I sold in 2000 and at that time, people we unwilling to pay $50 a month for high speed internet even though they were getting $200 worth of service.
Unless your mousetrap is a musthave, radio just isn't that, Americans are some cheap stingy people unwilling to pay for service on a whole, naturally you will always have exceptions to the norm, but why is Wal-Mart the giant it is today? Because people are cheap, plain and simple.
Posts: 30 | From: SC | Registered: Aug 2005
| IP: Logged |
quote:Originally posted by <golfman>: MP3's and Ipods don't have the sports or entertainment channels. Just music.
That is what TVs are for! Plus XM is ahead of SIRI so its not even the best one! People like it because of the low price.
Posts: 1458 | From: Ohio | Registered: Mar 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
I have to side with golfman. 50 bucks a share is a stretch, but there's no doubt in my mind that the stock will rise consideribly in the next 5-10 years. And with the addition of Howard Stern, it can only go up. In 5 years, I can see it at 12-15 dollars per share.
Posts: 40 | From: Pittsburgh | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
could be - i dunno, i fully admit i'm not a radio guy. the most i would pay would be $0 a month for radio. which i guess proves BigTim's point!
however, i'm willing to pay the extra $10/month to get espn-hd, and fork out for a cable modem, so i'm not a technophobe or anything. to me it seems like tv is much more important than radio, and my guess is that most americans would agree with that. but - perhaps SIRI will exceed all expectations, who knows. one key question from looking at their financials though - can they do it profitably? last Q it cost them $3+ for every $1 of revenue they brought in.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
| IP: Logged |
posted
That is a hurdle that they will have to leap, but i would say yes, they can turn a profic later down the road. I agree that it will never be as big as cable TV, but the Stern faithful should add several million subscribers.
Posts: 40 | From: Pittsburgh | Registered: Sep 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
By January , when Stern arrives the buzz will be deafening and the pps will not go below 9.00 again.
Posts: 274 | From: union,nj,usa | Registered: Jan 2004
| IP: Logged |
<golfman>
unregistered
posted
My post must have made the rounds. Sirius up big time today guys.
Im sure I will be posting it on other boards also so people know how big this stock will be in future.
IP: Logged |
<golfman>
unregistered
posted
My! If this is not the best stock since the 90's, I give up guys. The news just gets better all the time. You always hope you find a stock like this, but having no money in the 90's, I couldn't invest in the stocks I called. Im in this one! -------------------------------------------------
SIRIUS Satellite Radio to Launch New Programming Lineup on September 29 Thursday September 8, 12:09 pm ET Extends variety of SIRIUS' music, talk/entertainment, and information offerings Howard Stern and Martha Stewart channels build up to launches
NEW YORK, Sept. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News), the content leader in radio, announced today that it will launch several new channels on Thursday, September 29 that will be reflected in a new channel lineup effective on that date. These include innovative new music formats as well as talk/entertainment channels.
The new channel lineup will include Howard Stern's new channels 100 and 101. Stern is expected to start on SIRIUS in January 2006, and these new channels will pave the way for that arrival. Howard Stern coming to SIRIUS is groundbreaking in every way. Right now, preparations are being made and his studio is being built. A preview channel will keep fans updated on the progress.
Another major addition to the SIRIUS lineup is Martha Stewart Living Radio, which will be assigned channel 112 on Sept. 29th. The channel will add more programming throughout the fall, including advice from Martha's team of experts, simulcast of the new syndicated television show Martha, and call-ins from listeners. Ultimately, the channel will carry a full schedule of shows covering cooking, home keeping, pet keeping, gardening, collecting, crafts, weddings, and much more.
"Our new channels and personalities, added to our already compelling programming, gives our subscribers even greater depth and variety of programming to choose from," said Scott Greenstein, SIRIUS President of Entertainment and Sports. "New categories in our channel lineup, such as Especially For Women, Families & Kids, Religion, and News & Public Radio, reinforces SIRIUS' pre-eminent position of having the best programming in all of radio."
In addition to the Howard Stern and Martha Stewart Living Radio talk/entertainment channels, SIRIUS announces a number of new, compelling music channels, including BBC Radio 1, Super Shuffle and The Coffeehouse, among others. Some of the new channels have been created in response to SIRIUS subscribers' requests, and some channels have been re-named to better reflect their content.
As part of the new channel lineup, SIRIUS has enhanced its 1st Traffic & Weather service for New York and Los Angeles by devoting individual 24-hour channels to those major US metropolitan areas.
SIRIUS is providing improved programming with no increase to its $12.95 monthly subscription fee. The new and re-named channels will be reflected in SIRIUS' new channel lineup, available at www.sirius.com, on Sept. 29.
SIRIUS' new music channels:
BBC RADIO 1, ch. 11: SIRIUS launched BBC Radio 1 in July, featuring the best new music from the U.K. direct from London.
SUPER SHUFFLE, ch. 12: A continuous mix of the most popular songs played across all of the music genres represented on SIRIUS 65 commercial-free music channels.
THE COFFEEHOUSE, ch. 30: Singer-songwriters and acoustic coffeehouse music.
REVOLUTION, ch. 67: Today's most popular, faith-based rock music with a message.
SPA 73, ch. 73: The best new age instrumental music from around the world.
SIRIUS' re-named music channels:
AREA 33, ch. 33: (formerly Area 63, channel 63) Trance and progressive house music.
THE GLOBE, ch. 98 (formerly Horizons) World music.
SIRIUS' new talk channels:
HOWARD STERN, ch. 100 and ch. 101: Keep abreast of all things Howard as the "King of All Media" approaches his debut on these channels in January 2006, exclusively on SIRIUS.
SIRIUS STARS, ch. 103: A showcase of fascinating SIRIUS personalities, from Sen. Bill Bradley to Jay Thomas, and from Judith Regan to Robert Evans, doing the radio shows they've always dreamed of, exclusively on SIRIUS (formerly found on SIRIUS Talk Central, ch. 148).
MARTHA STEWART LIVING, ch. 112: Martha Stewart's "how-to for living" channel will add programming through the fall, exclusively on SIRIUS.
LIME, ch. 113: Formerly known as WISDOM RADIO (ch. 132), Lime presents programs for women focusing on "healthy living with a twist."
SIRIUS ADVICE, ch. 117: Popular syndicated radio programs such as The Dave Ramsey Show (financial advice), ChickChat (everyday life situations) and Into Tomorrow with Dave Graveline (consumer electronics and technology), among others.
SIRIUS' new religion channels:
CHRISTIAN TALK, ch. 159: Interdenominational, faith-based Christian programming that features family-friendly talk and the most respected national ministry programs.
SIRIUS' new foreign-language channels:
RADIO KOREA, ch. 183: A variety of news, entertainment and music in Korean.
SIRIUS' news and information channels:
SIRIUS 1st TRAFFIC & WEATHER, ch. 148-158: 20 channels of up-to-the- minute traffic and weather reports for 20 top metropolitan U.S. areas.
SIRIUS WEATHER & EMERGENCY, ch. 184: Ongoing national weather updates from The Weather Channel, and vital information in case of civil or national emergencies from the SIRIUS Emergency System.
IP: Logged |
posted
heh, no offense dude, but - that is a mighty large opinion of yourself you have there, if you think that your post on this board moved $455M of stock, which is about what SIRI has traded today so far. i would imagine the 3% gain today had more to do with their PR than your post, but - whatever floats your boat.
quote:Originally posted by <golfman>: My post must have made the rounds. Sirius up big time today guys.
Im sure I will be posting it on other boards also so people know how big this stock will be in future.
posted
Ha. Im just having fun here. I really think people are finally seeing the potential here and not paying attention to CNBC. I mean, they didn't call the 90'.com giants either.
I post on Yahoo also. Yeah idiots on there lots of short sellers also. But some really great people also who know a lot. I think my post are good.
Im just very excited about this stock. It is life changing if you can make it big on a stock. For me it would be over $30 grand profit. PUt the money in a 5 year CD and you got almost $40 grand.
IP: Logged |
posted
40k is life changing?? interesting article for you serious Sirius folks. will be interesting to see how their business pans out in the end. the only reason i would get one is to listen to Stern (damn the FCC) and i might not even do that.
posted
I think SIRI may hit $12/share by the beginning of next year. The main difference between SIRI and XM is the outstanding and authorized shares. SIRI is dilluted more heavily than XM.
-------------------- Buy Low. Sell High. Posts: 10750 | From: The Land Of The Giants | Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged |
posted
Cramer today said that Siri will be in trouble when HD radio is launched. Wont this mean that Xm and Siri will be allowed to merge if there is a viable third party competion. Which would be a win win situation.
Posts: 274 | From: union,nj,usa | Registered: Jan 2004
| IP: Logged |
imakmony2005
unregistered
posted
loved it at 0.69 hate it at 7 bucks
IP: Logged |
<golfman>
unregistered
posted
HD radio is no threat for Sirius at all.
All it is is enhanced FM radio. Still got the commercials and all. And NO content.
I read an article online about this in 2004. One guy said it would take until about 2016 before all radio stations adapt it. Radio stations are not forced to upgrade. It will never really catch on.
IP: Logged |
UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!
Printer-friendly view of this topic
