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this is my take on the feds. they are going to raise a few more times to get the froth out of the market. also have no choice with deficit growing huge and dollar weak. they are trying to push it toward teh 4.00 range since that is considered neutral. most speculators are using either adjustable, interest only, or negative amorizaition loans. and since they are tied to prime, they all will head higher with the feds raising short term rates.
Posts: 149 | Registered: Apr 2005
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee boosted its target for short-term interest rates Thursday by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and signaled further rate hikes are coming.
Posts: 149 | Registered: Apr 2005
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just means another quarter point raise on august 9. i am telling you folks. greenspan is going to push the speculators out of the market. and most of this boom is due to speculators right now. watch for more foreclosures down the road. they are already running at a high pace
Posts: 149 | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
people talking about housing bubble. but nobody are talking about the banks. they are setting themselves up for the fall just like the 80's with all the easy money. 100% financing
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Granville sees trouble ahead for Dow By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch Last Update: 6:43 AM ET June 30, 2005
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Joe Granville is bearish on stocks and bullish on gold. Maybe you should care.
Granville, the long-established "sole writer" of the Granville Market Letter ("inspired by Karen Granville"), has just excited gold bugs with a recent daily commentary arguing that "the time has come to buy into the gold and silver stocks."
His current buy recommendations are: Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM: news, chart, profile) , Bema Gold Corp. (BGO: news, chart, profile) and Golden Star Resources (GSS: news, chart, profile) .
Granville was once probably the best-known of all investment letter writers. His "sell everything" message in January 1981 triggered a market crash that made him a household name. Later that year, he was even elevated to the status of a picture on the front page of the New York Times. (Fame!)
Granville's flamboyant style really irritated a lot of people. Indeed, it was because of the urging of one of his rivals that I first looked into the investment letter-monitoring work of Mark Hulbert and the Hulbert Financial Digest -- quickly realizing the HFD would revolutionize coverage of investment letters and investment techniques in general.
Actually, it seems that Granville did have a "hot hand" in the late 1970s and into the early 1980s -- that most evanescent and yet intriguing of investment phenomena.
But by the time the HFD really fastened on Granville, his "hot hand" had disappeared.
Over the 25 years through early 2005, when HFD discontinued coverage of Granville's recommended portfolios on the grounds that his coverage had become too vague, they suffered annualized losses so severe as to amount to a total wipeout.
Nevertheless, Granville remains highly respected among his peers. As Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell wrote recently: "I've known Joe since 1961. Joe invented on-balance-volume, and his studies over the years have been nothing short of brilliant."
Russell noted respectfully that Granville currently expects "an ultimate move under Dow 9,700 this year, putting the market in a drastic freefall back to the March 2003 lows [i.e., the 7,400 range] with no help in sight."
Why respectfully? Try this for size: Granville's market timing, according to the HFD, has outperformed the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 over the last five years at a rate of 6.6% annualized vs. -0.6% annualized.
Hard to quantify
But in the end, Granville's one of these cases that illustrate the failings of a ruthless quantitative approach to performance -- as Mark Hulbert's the first to admit.
It's not at all uncommon to find successful investors inspired, as Russell appears to be inspired, by gurus whose performance is hard to quantify.
For example: I last wrote about Granville when he baled out of the bull market, in January 2004 -- when the Dow Industrials ($DJ: news, chart, profile) stood at 10,800.
Well, that certainly seems to have marked the end of the sharp rally off of the 2002-2003 lows -- which was unquestionably valuable information at the time.
But the HFD also shows Granville's market timing as having gained only 2.1% over the last year, far less than the 9.7% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000.
That may not quite do Granville justice.
Currently, Granville's worrying about "MAJOR TROUBLE AHEAD" -- because of what he sees as a major head-and-shoulders top in the Dow.
"We are currently seen building on the right shoulder, which currently sees the Dow peaking at 10,640," he said, adding that would be "300 points below the March 4 head."
The problem is, you can't dismiss Granville out of hand.
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posted
just follow the volume. never lies. the market had sat in the 10500 to 10600 range for too long with no volume
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