posted
nutting yet, LOL was hoping for a little bounce before i tried to ride it down again...not my month
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<golfman>
unregistered
posted
Sirius is sinking here!
A bit unfair though something that they don't mention on TV.
Sirius just got going last year. XM had a head start. The problem is the stock market lost 1,000 points over the last year.
Sirius got going and then the market tanked. XM lost over $12 per share, but Cramer didn't mention that for some reason on TV.
Sirius being on a $9 stock and not as far ahead is going to tank more. Im still calling $10 by end of year early 2006. It's hard to get a speculation stock going when then stock market is heading south. Coverage should be a little more fair on TV.
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posted
Irregardless of TV's fairness or not, Share structure and debt is why it's tanking golf...like the guys above on the thread are saying it trades for much more than it's worth.
-------------------- Raptor----Don't confuse bad luck with bad judgement
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posted
its worth should increase in the 3rd and 4th quarter. for anyone to think howards listeners aren't going to buy this in full force are going to be wishing they picked it up...@4$
-------------------- "My Dixie Wrecked"
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<golfman>
unregistered
posted
Anyone that went on Sterns web site a long time ago will know the poll they did on it.
64% said they would join on Sirius.
That is 6.4 million subs. If only 32% joined you still have 3.2 millions subs.
Sirius does not have that many total yet. That means most of Sterns fans (like me) are waiting until end of year.
Martha Stewart has 12 million fan base. Do the math.
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hmmm....ya think, (i'll short after the teeny little bounce)
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<smestre>
unregistered
posted
i posted this on another thread but here goes again. This is the next big thing. Who is going to pay for something they can get for free? that is what they said about cable TV....who doesnt have cable. I think a major thing that Sirius has is new contracts with luxury car companys (land rover, mecedes, jaguar just to name a few) these are the people who can afford the subscription and would want a gadget like this. I got XM before i knew anyone who had it. It was a gift and i thought it would be dumb but i have to say i love it. It is addicting and the regular radio no longer plays in my car. The thing that scares me is Howards contract ($500 mill for 5 years) which is obsurd. XM has better hardware since they have the scroll wheel but from what i hear sirius has better prgramming. When the price is right Im in, and with more money than i have ever put in a stock if it's avaiable at the time. It;s risky but the rewards will be huge if in at the right time. Ive never heard of anyone unsubscribing once they get the service, only forward progress ahead.
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quote:Originally posted by Raptorsrule: Irregardless of TV's fairness or not, Share structure and debt is why it's tanking golf...like the guys above on the thread are saying it trades for much more than it's worth.
Good point, it may go down lower but even so, I feel that any price you get in will be just fine. The future is bright. And one more thing--What the heck does irregardless mean? Sorry- I just had to say it
quote:Originally posted by keithsan: "sirius is sinking here"
hmmm....ya think, (i'll short after the teeny little bounce)
...and here's the bounce. Busy at work though, common sense says start shorting at 5. but I cant pull my intradays up here. So you'd be going on a guess.
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posted
TOOK THIS FROM R/B Just some of the info from this morning... SIRI Q1……
It looks as if the Q1 report is being well accepted.
1. Subscriber growth was high despite stock-outs. I am sure this was helped by spillover from Q4, but it was very nice to see SIRI posts these subscriber gains and CONTINUE to gain overall Market share.
2. SIRI posted 174,202 from the retail channel. XM posted 319,414 from the retail channel. On a comparison basis, this is 35.3% of the market for SIRI. However, SIRI stated today that XM counts their trucking and marine market in the retail channel. Apples to apples would dictate that you would have to pull the trucking and marine numbers from the XM number. Overall, this would mean that SIRI had better than a 35.3% share in this category. We also need to consider the spillover effect for the companies. This had an effect on both SIRI and XM.
3. SIRI posted 132,211 subscribers in the OEM and Special markets channel. XM posted 211,590 from the OEM channel. On a comparison basis, this is a 38.5% share for SIRI. However, SIRI includes the trucking and boating subs in this number. These numbers would have to be backed out of the SIRI number to get an apples to apples number. If you back these numbers out of SIRI, SIRI would have less than 38.5% share in this category.
4. Neither SIRI nor XM disclosed the trucking and boating subs. Thus, people need to be aware of the fact that SIRI counts these in the OEM channel and XM counts them in the retail channel. The comparison numbers will skew a bit based on this. The effect of this is XM’s retail numbers look better than without these subs, and the SIRI OEM numbers look better than without these subs.
5. SIRI stated that the stock-out problems had an effect of between 20,000 and 25,000 subs on the Q1 numbers.
6. Churn for SIRI was a historic low of 1.3%. This represents very good news for SIRI, and bodes well for the acceptance of SIRI by consumers. SIRI had gross adds of 354,708 and NET adds of 305,437. This means that 49,271 people deactivated the service in Q1. XM did not disclose their gross subscriber number. In past CC’s, they always have. For some reason, they have changed the reporting method, and not offered the number to investors. There was marked concern over churn in the XM call, and marked praise for Sirius in their call.
7. Overall market share was a gain by Sirius. Sirius now stands at 27.8% market share. The gain in Q1 was very modest, but was a gain nonetheless. This is good news considering the stock-out issues in Q1.
8. Progress in OEM is very good. Ford and others have yet to ramp up substantially, and gains in this sector will be very good for the balance of the year.
9. Promotions rolling out in May will include a $50 rebate. Basically, this equates to a buy one get one free on the Starmate, and other models priced at about $100.00. It would appear that both Sirius and XM’s programs are in line with each other.
10. Generation 3 chips are in production, and this will allow interesting product rollouts in the Fall.
11. Sirius has 66% of the subscriber base in a pre-pay status. The average prepay is over 9 months based on the 412.95 price point.
12. Sirius is over 1.5 million subs at this point in time.
13. Sirius raised subscriber guidance by 200,000 subs. This is the second time this year that they have raised this guidance for subscribers. Guidance now stands at 2,700,000 for a subscriber total at the end of the year.
14. Sirius also adjusted the expected loss number to 510 million. This is up from 480 million. The reasoning relates to the expected acquisition of more subscribers.
There were many other points to cover, but I will post those later.
-------------------- "My Dixie Wrecked"
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<golfman>
unregistered
posted
They will raise sub numbers all year. They can't still millions will join when Stern comes on. You can be sure they will get much more subs come end of year.
Im happy with the report. Nobody wants the static FM no more. Its longer overdue that we finally have a new type of radio out.
LCD sets are flying. If you bought a new TV set today, would you buy the old CRT sets even though the LCD sets cost $1,500? I don't think so.
This is the replacement for FM radio. It was long overdue.
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posted
anybody know why sirius has tanked so quickly in the past couple of days?
i had been playin it for months on its way up and now was waiting to see it hit bottom before i buy in before the howard run pps!
but, just checked it out at and it was at 4.7? must be a good reason
-------------------- Buy the silence-Sell the noise SFTV.004-.0075 AVNT.0018-.0033 FPPL.0034-.03 WEGI. My new Call
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<golfman>
unregistered
posted
Institutions don't buy penny stocks under $5. They sold probably.
Plus you got the stock market that lost 1,000 points. Dow was at 11,000. Speculation stocks like this won't be bought for now. Not a speculation stock for me though.
It's growing way faster than cell phones did. A fact that nobody seems to want to mention on TV.
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<golfman>
unregistered
posted
The cell phones went from 55 million in 1997 in use and in 2003 the number went up to 158 million.
In 6 years you gained 100 million more.
1985 you had only 340,000.
After 5 years this will be in almost all new cars bought.
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posted
I agree that this is good long-term. However, with new subscriptions and even more revenue, yet still a wider yearly loss. Sounds like bad management of the firm to me. I also had no idea that Stern is making 400 mil. That's just ridiculous. I honestly don't see that many people buying the service just for Stern, there has got to be something more, and not just Martha Stewart either. As for right now, the average $60,000 income can't afford the subscription every month, but when this kind of thing comes around and the price of the service comes down, you bet your @$$ it will fly.
-------------------- wide open until you see god, then brake!
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<golfman>
unregistered
posted
$60,000 income can't afford the sub cost?
You gotta be kidding me. I must have read that wrong. How do they afford then the cell phone bills?
It comes out to .43 cents a day only. You can afford that fipping burgers.
Your paying only .004 cents a day for each Sirius channel. Or .12 cents a month for each channel.
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posted
Unfortunately, cell phones are not considered a luxury, but a necessity nowadays. SIRI is still considered a privilege. FM radio is a right. The two are imperfect substitutes. A full subscription for all 1200 channels is about $145 per month, just to listen to the radio. I agree with you golfman, but it won't catch on until it becomes mainstream, like cell phones. I personally hate cell phones. Also, it is VERY trendy believe it or not to own a cell phone, so people scoop them up even if they don't need them, take for example 90% of my friends.
-------------------- wide open until you see god, then brake!
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posted
To re-iterate the obvious, I believe that SIRI right now is a trendy stock. But unlike the dot comer's, Sirius actually has profit/ loss, real time projections, and yes increasing revenue. I agree with most of the board to say that this has conveniently gone from a quick money maker to a long term hang on for the ride. I am sure some ups and downs will provide for some quick cash, but I firmly believe in the potential of the upward swing for this one.
-------------------- Life only has so many choices, choose wisely.
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posted
I own both xmsr/siri. I believe in 5-10 yrs my shares will be worth 100,000s of $. Simple things like cellphones and cable tv are good examples of things to come. As I've stated before the only stocks I WON'T play the what if game is xmsr/siri...... AS for stern, I would expect to see a special fee to pay the bill. If people will buy a 200$ unit + subcription cost to here him then they will pay an extra 5$ a month as well...... GLTA
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posted
The share price around Christmas will be very sweet to look at. All of the new subscribers being added due to Howard and Martha coming aboard along with all the units bought for Christmas gifts should be nice.
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