posted
crap. LOL my calls didnt sell, had em in at work too greedy LOL guess i'm stuck waiting for the next bounce....will be adding under 36 when it hits.
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Oil Prices Jump Above $57 a Barrel April 01, 2005 1:22 PM ET
By WEE SUI LEE
SINGAPORE (AP) - Crude oil prices jumped above $57 a barrel Friday, boosted by rising prices for gasoline, as well as an investment bank report saying strong demand and tight supplies could cause a "super spike" in prices.
After a brief runup of more than $2 a barrel, light, sweet crude for May delivery was up $1.70 to $57.10 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract advanced $1.41 on Thursday.
Unleaded gasoline futures rose more than 4 cents to $1.707 a gallon, after gaining more than 5 cents Thursday.
Tom Kloza, director of Oil Price Information Service, said the recent surge in gasoline futures means average U.S. pump prices are likely to rise above $2.25 a gallon within a few weeks.
Goldman Sachs, a major trader in the energy markets, said in its report that "oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a 'super spike' period _ a multiyear trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return."
Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti said factors contributing to the run-up in prices include geopolitical turmoil in oil-producing countries. The report said prices could go as high as $105 a barrel.
Oil analyst Victor Shum of Texas-based Purvin & Gertz in Singapore said the chances of crude oil reaching that level were slim.
"It will take a confluence of many events to happen," he said. "For example, if oil reserves in Saudi Arabia were significantly destroyed, then we could see a spike."
While oil prices are roughly 47 percent higher than a year ago, Nymex futures would need to surpass $90 a barrel to approach the inflation-adjusted high set in 1980.
On Wednesday, heating oil futures settled more than 5 cents higher and gasoline futures closed more than 2 cents higher following the release of U.S. government data that showed a drop in the U.S. supply of gasoline and distillate fuel, which includes heating oil. The U.S. government also reported a large increase in crude oil inventories, and said gasoline demand over the past month was 2 percent higher than last year.
Despite the current bullish factors, Shum said he believes prices will fall because of the rise in crude inventories and a second-quarter drop in global oil demand.
He said the present speculative fund-buying arose out of a "frenzy mentality."
"People will continue to take profits because much of the surge was driven by no news," Shum said.
posted
actually i think the housing market is going to slow at the end of this year or first quarter of next year. i think this is the peak right now. the first to go will be the condo market. they say there is no inflation, but prices are going up everyday. not just on housing. right now where i live now in florida, the moto is if ain't selling rasie the price. i think interest rates stayed to low for too long of period
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also starting to see a lot more foreclosures lately.
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Crude is next bubble to burst. but we all dream it will happen not so fast. I notice a lot guys buy oil stocks yesterday and today. I play some of them also and hold some.
But since economy go down, how long will crude stand above 50/barrel?
since we are small traders. We can act quickly if something fishy on crude stocks.
posted
Oil is on a nice uptrend, don't know if there is a bubble there, but if i was buying an oil stock i'd wait for it to fall back to the trend line. I don't know how to transfer good charts, but a look at the weekly here will give you a good idea....
posted
I've seen them LENT, i don't have the capacity to upload(i think) to post them here, weekly shows at a resistance of 58 which we may or may not pop through, but it will head back to the trend line sooner or later, they always do....
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its crazy in florida will all the people moving from up north. they are all bidding the property higher. my company has already raised their rates twice this year and once last year. might as milk as much as you can get while it lasts. also foreclosures are on an uptick.
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IMHO Greenspan's comments about oil were simply a tactic to try to stave off even-higher inflation. If Americans stop driving, they'll stop buying and The Chinese and Indians will simply continue to increase their oil consumption. This is inevitable...The Chinese economy is predicted to grow 8.5% this year and it takes a great deal of oil to convert an agricultural economy to an industrial one. It's not improbable that China will eventually surpass the U.S. on consumption, particularly as their middle class continues to expand. The technology and funding is not in place for at least the next five to ten years or more to viably get into alternatives. There will be fluctuations but the days of cheap oil are likely over for the reason world demand exceeded known supplies way back in 2002. Price drops could occur if Americans drive 50% less but most still need some means of commuting to work, the store and uhmm 'vacation.' If any major-producing country runs into war or domestic turmoil etc....count on a huge price fluctuation upward. Well, above $80 a barrel...on real estate, many in mortgage industry are saying that 7.0% is probably by year's end. Low historically but high in relation to last couple of years...
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