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I do not understand the comment that says time to dump oil stocks. I do believe that some of the oil stocks that are running high right now will cool off a bit, but with summer on the way I believe they will hit some high peaks.
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well, with non-OPEC contries to increase production with the high crude oil, Oil supply will outbeat the demand for a period of time.
Asia car makers in Korea, Japan and China all slash their outlook of car production. These are the side results from high crude oil and high inflation worries. (not to mention GM's warning)
Both number of supply and demand will continue to go up. But the oil price depends on which side is unbalanced .
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quote:Originally posted by daily double: I do not understand the comment that says time to dump oil stocks. I do believe that some of the oil stocks that are running high right now will cool off a bit, but with summer on the way I believe they will hit some high peaks.
What we talk here is in short term as we are active traders in the market. I still think crude is in a super-long term bull market.
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You may be right crude may fall next week, but I will hold my oil stocks, over the next six months to a year I believe they will rise sharply. Some of us have held Gtel. At least that long. Where is a better place for your money then in the something everyone needs. Oil and gas are absolute necessity, you will see $70 oil before $30 oil.
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quote:Originally posted by slim: You may be right crude may fall next week, but I will hold my oil stocks, over the next six months to a year I believe they will rise sharply. Some of us have held Gtel. At least that long. Where is a better place for your money then in the something everyone needs. Oil and gas are absolute necessity, you will see $70 oil before $30 oil.
Yes. If you act as a long term investor, hold them.But for short term,say 1-2 months, I say chasing other chance.
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thanks. by the way, ththf, what is your first language or country of origin? i don't know what accent to read your posts with... hungarian? turkish...?? come on, you are not boring mutt-american this is clear... lithuanian? welsh? egyptian? inner-mongolian?
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I disagree..Sales for autos in China is very hot..it slowed down to a 'hot' sales forecast of a 17 % increase or so from a hotter pace in 2002 and 2003....that will still put alot of demand on oil and gas. ____________________________ China expects auto sales growth to keep slowing in 2005
Click to enlarge photo BEIJING (AFP) - Chinese auto sales are likely to continue to slow in 2005, and the stellar growth seen early this decade will probably never return, state media said, citing a leading industry analyst.
Total vehicle sales are likely to rise by about 12 percent this year to 5.8 million, Xinhua news agency reported, quoting Xu Changming, a ranking official at the government think-tank the State Information Center.
The "blow-out growth" of 2002 and 2003 will never come again, Xu said.
Twelve percent growth would be welcome news in most countries' auto markets, but in China, it is down from 15.5 percent in 2004 and 34.2 percent in 2003, according to previously released data. ADVERTISEMENT
Passenger car sales are expected to fare slightly better, with an increase of 17 percent this year, compared with 15.2 percent in 2004.
But that, too, is a weak echo of roaring growth seen in 2003, when passenger car sales sped ahead with growth of 75.3 percent.
Slowing growth reflects a gradually saturated market especially in the cities, where more and more middle-class families have now achieved their dream of owning a car.
It also reflects government efforts to slow down overheated industries, including the car sector, with the introduction last year of stricter rules on auto loans.
As China dismantles its tariff barriers to implement promises to the World Trade Organization, car prices keep falling, making some families postpone buying a car in hopes of a better deal later on.
-------------------- "Whether you think that you can, or that you can't, you are usually right." - Henry Ford
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XOM gave a negative news in last 30 min. From chart, XOM go MACD bearish crossover in min chart.
I won't short any oil stocks also. It's danger to short oil stocks. But if you long oil stocks, you'd better exit for a while to avoid loss.
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By MADLEN READ, AP Business Writer
NEW YORK - Oil prices retreated after surging above $57 a barrel Monday as the record-breaking rally over the past several days lost some momentum.
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Im not quite sure. This market is going to be around. Im thinking differently like buy low. It will rebound question is when....just watch it closely then make your money work for you.
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Associated Press Oil Prices Drop Ahead of Inventory Report Wednesday March 23, 8:27 am ET By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer Oil Prices Drop Nearly $1 a Barrel As Traders Sell to Reap Profits Ahead of Inventory Report
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Crude futures prices fell nearly $1 a barrel Wednesday as traders sold to reap profits ahead of a key U.S. inventory report.
Although bullish U.S. figures could send prices upward again, some analysts said oil prices were falling because of evidence of slower growth in demand in energy-hungry China and other Asian powerhouse economies.
ADVERTISEMENT Light, sweet crude fell 98 cents to $55.05 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. It had declined nearly $1.50 to settle at $56.03 on Tuesday.
Heating oil fell 2 cents Wednesday to $1.5265 per gallon.
Brent crude fell 93 cents to $53.66 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
Oil is about 50 percent more expensive than a year ago but still well below the inflation-adjusted peak above $90 a barrel set in 1980. Prices have risen by about a third so far this year, fueled by a late cold snap across the world's largest energy consumer, the United States.
Traders were looking ahead to the U.S. Energy Department's weekly supply report later Wednesday. Some analysts suggested crude futures would slide to near $54 per barrel, then resume its climb.
Others, however, suggested that prices, fueled up to now in part by growing demand from China and other Asian economies, could soon head lower.
"The whole Asian region is now in the process of lower growth demand," said Frederic Lasserre of SG Securities in Paris.
In China, India, Thailand and Indonesia, rising domestic energy prices were dampening demand, said Lasserre. In China, for instance, demand was up 15 percent in November but that growth slid to only 3 percent last month, he said.
Lasserre suggested that crude prices should be no higher than the mid-$40s, saying that supply fears over the past few months had resulted a "premium of at least $8 to $9" a barrel over market fundamentals.
A weak dollar also has factored into this year's price surge.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces roughly 40 percent of the world's oil, agreed last week to boost its output quota by 500,000 barrels a day but the extra crude on the market did not cause prices to dip. On Monday, a key OPEC official said the group may raise output by a further half million barrels daily.
But Venezuela's oil minister Rafael Ramirez said he had not received any information from fellow OPEC members on the additional increase, and said there was adequate supply.
"The world oil market is currently well supplied, but there is too much tension in the Middle East," said Ramirez Tuesday.
Tensions and possible outages in key producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela have also helped fuel crude's rise over the past year.
Nigeria's two oil unions said Monday they would begin labor action in April. The African nation is the continent's largest exporter and the fifth-largest exporter to the United States.
Associated Press Writer En-Lai Yeoh in Singapore contributed to this report.
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oil if you are going long ,no woorie be happy .oil will hit 60 befor it hits 40 for sure .smart money is picking up more as it dips .have a good day .aces
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I think if Light, Sweet Crude Oil stays above $53 or $52 we'll have a better chance of seeing $60 oil.
Now with the big blast at the BP refinery in Texas City, Texas I'm waiting to see what kind of an affect this will have on gasoline prices? On the news they said it was the 3rd largest refinery in North America or BP's 3rd largest refinery.
however since they won't be running at full capacity? then they will use less crude...
this will probabaly be diverted to another place...like the the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has 600 million barrels now (a multi-year high), and can take 100 million more before it is full(700 million capacity)...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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Associated Press Oil Prices Slip, Maintaining Downward Trend Tuesday March 29, 7:51 am ET By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer Oil Prices Slide, Maintaining a Downward Trend Generated by Profit-Taking Over Past Week
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil futures prices slipped on Tuesday, maintaining a downward trend generated by profit-taking over the past week.
Analysts said demand remained high but said fears of a supply crunch had eased -- a fact reflected by OPEC's apparent decision to hold off on a new increase in its official output ceiling.
ADVERTISEMENT Light, sweet crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3 cents to $54.02 a barrel in electronic trading by afternoon in Europe. An intraday high of $57.60 was set on March 17.
Heating oil fell more than half a cent to $1.5410 a gallon.
Brent crude dropped 80 cents at $53.13 on the International Petroleum Exchange in London.
The latest U.S. government data showed U.S. inventories of crude oil at 309.3 million barrels, or 8 percent above year ago levels, while gasoline supplies were at 217.3 million barrels, also 8 percent above year ago levels.
Those higher inventories could help ease prices. Still, some analysts cautioned that the onset of the U.S. summer driving season would probably keep prices high over the medium term.
"I don't think we can read too much into it," analyst Esa Ramasamy said of the recent price drop. He noted that traders had just returned from the Easter weekend holiday.
"When the market goes on a long weekend, people tend to take long positions," said Ramasamy, a Singapore-based oil editorial manager for Platts, an energy reporting agency. "When people get back into the business, they will start to reevaluate the market."
He said shifts in oil prices could fluctuate between 50 cents and $1 for a while, but said a drastic drop was highly unlikely.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said this past weekend that the group will take its time in increasing output quotas by an additional 500,000 barrels per day due to global petroleum market fluctuations.
OPEC agreed earlier this month to raise production quotas by 500,000 barrels per day and said it would consult on whether to increase them by a further 500,000 if prices continued to rise.
"OPEC is signaling the market is less panicked and OPEC is less panicked," said analyst Deborah White of SG Securities in Paris. "Crude is not in short supply."
Over the longer term, she said she expected prices to rally in the third quarter, when demand for gasoline is still high while it is growing for heating oil.
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