posted
I bought calls on this last week, looks as if I was right. Should go between $7 and $10 a share
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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National City Corp. (NCC) rallied amid a fresh report that the regional bank, which has been crippled by bad real-estate loans, is in talks for a possible sale. Shares were recently up 12% to $2.50 in early trading, half the gains seen in premarket trading. Other regional banks also rallied ahead in the early going but also weakened as composite trading began, with some even going into the red. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) and Regions Financial Corp. (RF) were all recently down 10% to 12%. National City's gain comes after weeks of investors rapidly fleeing it. It's down nearly two-thirds the past three weeks as investors have eyed National City as a next potential victim of the nation's widening financial crisis. But the company has maintained that the selloff is unjustified. The banks said to be in takeover talks with National City - PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) and Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) - already looked at National City last spring but decided then not to make an offer. Instead, National City got a $7 billion capital injection. The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the situation, said National City is on the block again, which underscores the precarious position of regional banks that have been unable to regain their footing despite help from outside investors. Analysts say National City, which has more than 1,400 branches in nine states, has more than enough capital to handle the mortgages on its books. The company has maintained the same thing. Yet the fact that the bank has been hobbled by bank loans has led investors to draw connections between it and other banks that have recently failed or agreed to sales to larger companies. For years, National City was a conservative commercial lender until it made a nationwide push into writing subprime and home-equity loans, many through a subsidiary that it subsequently sold to Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER). The subprime-mortgage crisis took its toll on National City, which reported four-straight quarters of losses totalling more than $2 billion. -By Donna Kardos, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5963; donna.kardos*dowjones.com
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=VRD32MtgWpTbaoQgILdS%2Fg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires 10-09-08 1013ET
Posts: 1986 | From: Florida | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Good call on the calls invester..I have been flipping this he last few weeks,,Might need to get some shares to hold long now...
Posts: 1986 | From: Florida | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
I can't imagine much of a premium considering most of the deals lately have been take unders. i have been know to be wrong though, haha.
Posts: 1045 | From: novato,ca,usa | Registered: Aug 2003
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posted
I like Oct. and Nov. Calls. The news should be out by next week. There not going to let a recovery in the stock, and the market happen before a deal. They would have to pay too much for the common
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Im in NCC at 2.48 Should I hold on to this or sell in your guys opinion? Is this something I should wait and see about? What happens if the company is bought?
Posts: 4 | Registered: Oct 2008
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Here is (according to Reuters) the timeline for what will be an epic CDS auction tomorrow related to the Lehman bankruptcy. There are huge losses to go around, confusion about counter-parties, and I expect a host of releases tomorrow afternoon as people disclose their newfound liabilities.
9:45 a.m.-10 a.m. Auction participants will submit bids and offers for the debt backing the credit default swaps, which will be used to determine the initial recovery rate of the swaps.
10:30 a.m. Auction administrators Creditex and Markit will publish the initial recovery price and the open interest for the contracts will be published. The open interest reflects the amount of bids and offers that have been made, and will show if there are more buyers than sellers, or vice versa.
12:45 p.m. -1 p.m. Participating dealers will submit limit orders for the debt on behalf of themselves and their clients to fill the open interest
2 p.m. The final price of the auction will be published.
Most people expect prices in the 12-to-13 cents on the dollar, leading to payouts in the $400-billion range.
Comments (4) Sort by: Date Rating Last Activity Thread active 2 hours agoCollapse thread
Paul Kedrosky•76p The Freddie/Fannie auction was this past Monday, and it went relatively cleanly, with high recovery rates on the debt, and only one lawsuit that I've seen. Lehman is a different issue altogether.
POST REPLY» 2 hours ago Thread active 1 hour agoCollapse thread 0 Ted Murphy So they are selling 3.2T in Credit Default Swaps, representing 5.8% of a 55T global market in CDS. They are expecting to take a 87.5% hit, recouping $400B and losing 2.8T. This translates into further losses of $48.1T on the rest of the $55T. It seems so awful that it can't be true.
POST REPLY» 7 hours ago +1 khyron4eva•22p Maybe this is stupid question and oversimplification, but I have to wonder why CDS contracts aren't simply being unwound? Now, we're all familiar with the backlog in these things that NYFED (and Geithner in particular) was was working to clear out -- paper records, bad novation records, etc. All that good stuff from 2005. So the question is, how accurate is $62T notional at this point in time. How many of those contracts are being unwound daily? Probably not huge (or even statistically significant) amounts, admittedly, but I have to imagine some players are just getting out, if they can.
That said, you don't just unwind $50T+ of CDS contracts in a month, especially on a bankrupt reference entity.
Just thinking aloud.
The losses expected from this auction will absolutely wreck many banks tomorrow...some don't even know it yet, but they're dead men walking...
-------------------- Disclaimer: Not accountable for anything I say Posts: 6266 | Registered: Jun 2004
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Baird Adams stressed that National City is stable and well-capitalized.
National City's capital ratios are well above many of their peers, Chan said. However, National City's main concern is that depositors will flee for banks considered more stable, she said.
"The problem with National City right now is more a concern of liquidity, not capital," Chan said. "If they were acquired by what's perceived to be a stronger bank, it would solve a lot of those issues and help continue to stabilize the deposit base." ------------- In this media controlled market no one is safe imo. Not much trust left. NCC just got done raising capital in sept also. I think they have taken some decent steps but we'll see if it was enough.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
The VIX is at an all time high. I think we open much lower, but actually bottom today. I'm back in, fully invested.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: The VIX is at an all time high. I think we open much lower, but actually bottom today. I'm back in, fully invested.
your a crazy fkr but good luck! Maybe our world financial leaders will save us after all. lol
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: it'll get bought under for .50-1.00
Timeline for the Epic Lehman CDS Auction Tomorrow
Here is (according to Reuters) the timeline for what will be an epic CDS auction tomorrow related to the Lehman bankruptcy. There are huge losses to go around, confusion about counter-parties, and I expect a host of releases tomorrow afternoon as people disclose their newfound liabilities.
9:45 a.m.-10 a.m. Auction participants will submit bids and offers for the debt backing the credit default swaps, which will be used to determine the initial recovery rate of the swaps.
10:30 a.m. Auction administrators Creditex and Markit will publish the initial recovery price and the open interest for the contracts will be published. The open interest reflects the amount of bids and offers that have been made, and will show if there are more buyers than sellers, or vice versa.
12:45 p.m. -1 p.m. Participating dealers will submit limit orders for the debt on behalf of themselves and their clients to fill the open interest
2 p.m. The final price of the auction will be published.
Most people expect prices in the 12-to-13 cents on the dollar, leading to payouts in the $400-billion range.
Comments (4) Sort by: Date Rating Last Activity Thread active 2 hours agoCollapse thread
Paul Kedrosky•76p The Freddie/Fannie auction was this past Monday, and it went relatively cleanly, with high recovery rates on the debt, and only one lawsuit that I've seen. Lehman is a different issue altogether.
POST REPLY» 2 hours ago Thread active 1 hour agoCollapse thread 0 Ted Murphy So they are selling 3.2T in Credit Default Swaps, representing 5.8% of a 55T global market in CDS. They are expecting to take a 87.5% hit, recouping $400B and losing 2.8T. This translates into further losses of $48.1T on the rest of the $55T. It seems so awful that it can't be true.
POST REPLY» 7 hours ago +1 khyron4eva•22p Maybe this is stupid question and oversimplification, but I have to wonder why CDS contracts aren't simply being unwound? Now, we're all familiar with the backlog in these things that NYFED (and Geithner in particular) was was working to clear out -- paper records, bad novation records, etc. All that good stuff from 2005. So the question is, how accurate is $62T notional at this point in time. How many of those contracts are being unwound daily? Probably not huge (or even statistically significant) amounts, admittedly, but I have to imagine some players are just getting out, if they can.
That said, you don't just unwind $50T+ of CDS contracts in a month, especially on a bankrupt reference entity.
Just thinking aloud.
The losses expected from this auction will absolutely wreck many banks tomorrow...some don't even know it yet, but they're dead men walking...
I disagree. I think this will play out the same as Wachovia. They have 1400 branches, great deposits, and there debt is not as bad as once perceived. $7-$10
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
S&P Analyst Research Notes S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF NATIONAL CITY CORP Thursday 10/09/2008 9:32 AM ET - Standard & Poor's Research Notes According to unconfirmed report in the Wall Street Journal, NCC may be in discussions to sell itself, possibly to PNC Financial (PNC 68***) or Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS 41). We are keeping our $3 target price, based on a sharp discount-to-peers 0.95X our tangible book value estimate of $3.16 per share, reflecting the current serious challenges to NCC's credit quality. We also think NCC's nearly $15.4 billion in Tier 1 capital at the end of Q2, 11.08% of risk-adjusted assets, should be high enough so as to not require NCC to seek additional capital in rest of '08.
Posts: 1986 | From: Florida | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
I just noticed an extremely high Oct. call volume on NCC today. Could mean something
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
2.77 up 20% pre. sell pre and buy after it goes down for a few hours... then you can buy again if want.
Posts: 208 | Registered: Sep 2008
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consumers/investers just excited about yesterday. Will fall when all the regular orders with volume come in. Pretty sure. Then you can just buy again.
Posts: 208 | Registered: Sep 2008
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posted
.Looks great. Couple this with the buyout news; we will see my $7-$10 figure this week.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
You have to know that the Private Equity firm that injected 6 billion in this company won't let it go for less than $7-$10. 1400 branches, strongest bank in Ohio, Penn, etc........
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: You have to know that the Private Equity firm that injected 6 billion in this company won't let it go for less than $7-$10. 1400 branches, strongest bank in Ohio, Penn, etc........
I know, just short term losses... I like the bank. One of my favs.
Just trying to help some out who were holding.
Posts: 208 | Registered: Sep 2008
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posted
Well we are in agreement because those are the two I thought were strongest and dropped for no apparent reason a few weeks ago. when financials dropped. I personally like fifth third, they are professional and have great services.
Although I have many other interests besides
I'm doing more indexes instead of following all the individual stocks.
Posts: 208 | Registered: Sep 2008
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posted
You also have to remember that there are several bidders for NCC, PNC, Bank of Nova Scotia etc… Could go higher.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
=DJ National City Mulling Participation In Government Plan
. By Ralph E. Winters For DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CLEVELAND (Dow Jones)--National City Corp. (NCC) is still considering whether it will seek to participate in the new government program to provide new capital to the nation's major banks, said Peter E. Raskind, chairman, president and chief executive.
The bank is "very well capitalized" as the result of a transaction last April that provided $7 billion in new capital, Raskind told a meeting of Cleveland securities analysts Wednesday.
In fact, as of June 30, National City Bank was "the most strongly capitalized" of the nation's large banks, he said.
However, the definition of a strongly capitalized bank "may creep up" as a result of the additional capital being injected into leading institutions, he said. National City will consider that as well as implications for the company's shareholders before deciding whether to seek participation, he said.
"I am actually quite optimistic about the future of the company," Raskind said, while "not glossing over the challenges we face."
Shares of National City traded recently at $3.19, up 9 cents. The stock is down 81% year-to-date.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
Well Invester, looks like this was the only one on my list that did not close down today..Closed up .09 today everything else I had was in the red , Looks like when the market turns it might make the $7 to $10 range after all..
Posts: 1986 | From: Florida | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
The CEO's comments about being one of the best capitalized of the big banks screams take over at these levels.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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