Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change 11/10/06 0.3700 0.4050 0.3700 0.4000 +0.0350 3090800 +9.59%
Composite Indicator Trend Spotter TM Buy
Short Term Indicators 7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy 10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy 20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell 20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold
Short Term Indicators Average: 40% - Buy 20-Day Average Volume - 3338400
Medium Term Indicators 40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 50% - Buy 50-Day Average Volume - 2831932
Long Term Indicators 60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
Long Term Indicators Average: 33% - Buy 100-Day Average Volume - 2578969
posted
Going for it Sold at 54.5 going to try to get bump. Hopping it drops back to .45 or lower tomorrow. I got one in hand instead of two in the bush.ye ha Posts: 28 | From: waco texas | Registered: Sep 2006
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posted
Msg: 1221 of 1232 11/17/2006 2:50:11 PM Recs: 0 Sentiment: Not Disclosed By: Dave_D Send PM Profile Ignore Recommend Add To Favorites Posted as a reply to msg 1220 by radchemer
Re: 65 cents. Who'da thunk it. eom I would've...and did. Calpine's going a lot further than you think.
Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Michigan Posts: 1,661 See the chart, looks like it did something similiar in the past six months and came back down. Could make a quick buck thou, just trade with caution and only if you can keep a constant watch.
Keep your entry and exit points firm and be ready to pull the trigger.
Of course with my disclosure; It's just my opinion
Posts: 4112 | Registered: Jun 2006
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Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change 11/20/06 0.6275 0.7050 0.6250 0.7000 +0.0800 15078174 +12.90%
Composite Indicator Trend Spotter TM Buy
Short Term Indicators 7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy 10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy 20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy
Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy 20-Day Average Volume - 6640458
Medium Term Indicators 40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy 50-Day Average Volume - 4139109
Long Term Indicators 60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
Long Term Indicators Average: 33% - Buy 100-Day Average Volume - 3169877
Short Term Indicators 7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy 10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy 20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy
Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy 20-Day Average Volume - 9610281
Medium Term Indicators 40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy 50-Day Average Volume - 5545143
Long Term Indicators 60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy 50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy 100-Day Average Volume - 3845531
I agree that there is something somehow illogical in the conv/short theory. Explaining the run-up by the increase of the bonds is not really an explanation. Then the question becomes why the big run-up on the bonds. Most of the bonds are in the ninety in the dollar range. That normally means the bond holders believe they will be paid back in full. If that is the case, the common should get something. Against that is the poor MOR for september. Was there special provisions or charges during that month that would explain the poor result for the month. I must say that when I saw these results I was tempted to sell it all. Then out of nowhere bonds and common start a fantastic run. Unheard of for bonds: a lot of them going from the 60's to the nineties in a month! Things can really be strange in the market.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: Jun 2006
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Calpine wants to be able to restrict how many unsecured Calpine bonds a person can own. They say that they expect to rack up about $5.7 billion in NOLs through 2007. (That includes the $2.7 billion worth of NOLs as of December 31, 2005.)
I learned from reading the motion that the amount of NOLs that can be carried forward for tax purposes is reduced by the amount of debt that is cancelled upon emergence from Chapter 11. Based on current bond prices, Calpine estimates that there will be $1.3 billion of cancelled debt upon emergence from Chapter 11. They are careful to point out that they are not predicting that there will be any cancelled debt, but that using current bond prices is a reasonable and prudent method of estimating that number.
In Calpine's words: "When the Debtors filed their voluntary petitions for relief in December 2005, it was unclear whether the special bankruptcy rule in section 382(1)(5) would be more beneficial upon emergence than other alternatives. Circumstances have changed dramatically since December 2005, however. The amount of the Debtors' expected NOLs has increased by billions of dollars. The trading price of the Debtors' debt has also increased by billions of dollars, suggesting a significant potential reduction in "cancellation of indebtedness" income. After months of analysis and review, the Debtors have concluded that they may now emerge from bankruptcy with NOLs exceeding $3.5 billion; and thus, have concluded that it would be beneficial to utilize IRC 382(1)(5) in order to protect these NOLs to their fullest extent."
For the purposes of the motion only, Calpine estimated that there would be $7.1 billion of allowed unsecured claims. $5.3 billion of that is "funded unsecured indebtedness" (I think that means bonds), and "a very rough preliminary estimate of $1.8 billion of other general unsecured claims."
So, again only for the purpose of the motion, Calpine estimates there will be $7.1 billion worth of debt that gets converted to equity upon emergence from Chapter 11. The IRS defines a change of ownership as the case when someone who owns at least 5% of the company changes the value of his holdings by more than 50%. To be conservative, Calpine is using a 4.75% number as the threshold above which it wishes to restrict bond ownership at BK exit. 4.75% * $7.1 billion is about $340 million. These bonds can still be traded while Calpine is under Chapter 11, but if someone owns more than $340 million and they didn't own them 18 months before the BK, Calpine would like to be able to force them to sell down until they get at or below the $340 million threshold so that the new Calpine will be allowed to receive the full tax benefits of its massive NOLs.
Posts: 4112 | Registered: Jun 2006
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posted
Calpine Seeks Court OK of $100M Payment Monday December 11, 5:32 pm ET By Marc Hopkins, Dow Jones Newswires Calpine Seeks Court OK of $100M Payment to Debt Holders
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Calpine Corp. is asking the judge overseeing its bankruptcy reorganization to allow it to make a $100 million payment to holders of its second-lien debt. The energy company has been operating under Chapter 11 protection from creditors through the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan since December 2005
According to court papers filed Friday, Calpine has until Dec. 31 to agree on a schedule for paying the holders of its second-lien debt, which consists of about $3.7 billion in notes and loans with varying maturity dates.
To do this, Calpine wants the bankruptcy judge to alter the rules governing how it can use its cash collateral.
The federal Bankruptcy Code considers cash collateral to be any cash, stocks, bonds, property titles, bank accounts or other cash equivalents that a company can use to fund its business with the permission of creditors or the order of a judge.
Its current cash-collateral agreement allowed Calpine to pay second-lien-debt holders $78 million in 2006. Court papers said any payments made beyond Dec. 31 would have to be agreed upon by the company, the official committee of secured creditors in its Chapter 11 case and a separate panel representing second-lien holders' interests.
Under the new agreement, Calpine would make the payments using unrestricted cash as long as the company maintains a minimum $10 million balance. Payments to the second-lien holders would be made in $25 million increments at the end of each quarter in 2007.
In exchange for the payment, the second-lien-debt holders said they wouldn't seek payment for default interest, or interest on interest payments.
Calpine must also seek approval from the lenders of its debtor-in-possession loan before the agreement can be honored.
Judge Burton Lifland will consider the payment during a Dec. 20 hearing in the Manhattan bankruptcy court.
Calpine of San Jose, Calif., supplies about 3.5 percent of the electricity used in the United States, to 27 million households.
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