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CashCowMoo
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If you had a choice to choose from the current list of Republicans, who would you vote for? Yes I know some of you wont vote Republican, but if you HAD to...where are we at?


1. Mitt Romney
2. Rick Santorum
3. Newt Gingrich
4. Ron Paul


I vote 4. Ron Paul

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"No civilization can survive the physical destruction of its resource base."

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buckstalker
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Ron Paul

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It's all in the timing...

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The Bigfoot
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I want to say Ron Paul but I think when it comes down to it I am afraid of how his radical ideas would freeze governmental services and financial markets with uncertainty over what he would try to follow through on.

I think if I had to I would vote for Romney and then go into dark corner and cry for a little while.

Thank goodness there is another choice.

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buckstalker
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Radical Ideas???

You mean radical ideas like...

Demanding a balanced budget from congress?
Legalizing sound money?
Giving people back their liberties?
Staying the phuck out of other peoples business?
Spending only what we can afford?
Living by law of the land and following the constitution?
Securing our borders?
Stopping the practice of back alley "loan sharks" printing money and then lending it to us?

Are those the radical ideas you speak of?

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It's all in the timing...

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glassman
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you forgot to add end the futile and wasteful war on drugs buckstalker... as a Doctor i beleive Ron paul might just see the drug problem for what it really is a (mental) HEALTH ISSUE

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Bob Frey
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Ron Paul
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buckstalker
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
you forgot to add end the futile and wasteful war on drugs buckstalker... as a Doctor i beleive Ron paul might just see the drug problem for what it really is a (mental) HEALTH ISSUE

Not to mention the fact that ending the "war on drugs" would probably stop about 75% of the violent crime in this country...

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It's all in the timing...

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CashCowMoo
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I dont think it would be THAT high of a percentage but it would be substantial. I like the hemp farming proposals he has to bring back industrial hemp.

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The Bigfoot
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Changing monetary policy would be a huge change. Bank would freeze, the fed would stop printing, no one would know what their money was worth, and speculators would inflate the hell out of commodities.

Changing foreign policy would seriously fu@@ Israel (whom we helped create), Hong Kong, South Korea, and a whole lot of Eastern European countries. Keeping your nose out of others peoples business is one thing but there are serious consequences at the end of the road of non-interference. Starting with a nuclear Iran, a successful oppression in Syria, and an expansionist China and Russia, followed by god knows what else.

Then you have the the closing of departments of the federal government. Sounds good in theory but the fed is this nations largest employer. You cut those jobs and it saves the taxpayer money, it also cuts the taxpayer base. You got some jobs available to pick up that slack??

The Ferrari may be able to go from 0 to 60 in 4.4 seconds but the American government, the American economy, and the public of its union moves at a slower pace.

You think Obama has been obstructed? Wait til you see how congress reacts to Paul's ideas...

***One minor note, I agree about stopping the war on drugs. Legalize, Monetize, tax that sh##, and emphasize American made. Goodbye drug czar.

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buckstalker
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BF...Is this your "opinion" of what would happen if Paul were to legalize sound money, or do you have some fact based report that proves that those events indeed would happen?

How do know for a fact that changing foreign policy would have such "dramatic" consequences?


The jobs you speak of losing won't be lost at all...how bout we let the States and the private sector take over those "departments". The federal government has proven itself incapable of running them efficiently anyway.

Sounds to me like you are happy with a completely dysfunctional government that is owned and controlled by elitists and big business...

I just can't grasp that mentality....

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It's all in the timing...

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CashCowMoo
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Looks like Ron Paul wins this, so why dont you all vote for him!

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The Bigfoot
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Not happy per say, cognizant that every action has unintended consequences.

The whole sound money statement is a new way of talking about an old device, the gold standard. Oh, I know some people talk about using a different commodity to back the money supply by but that is like talking about clean coal technology- sounds nice but doesn't exist (and even if it did would be too expensive to be profitable).

Even if we found a way around the fact that our economy dwarfs the world gold supply it will not stop the speculation in the financial markets of America which is what causes bubbles. It may stop the government from over-inflating our money but it won't stop us from doing it to ourselves.

Then there is the cost of living. Just because the dollar is fixed that doesn't mean that prices will be. Cost of living could and would during times of economic distress erode far faster under a backed dollar than an unfixed dollar.

Its throwing the baby out with the bathwater when you find the government dirtied it a little.

What can I tell you? Life is dirty, and those that play in the dirt are attracted to power and money. Changing the rules will only stop them for as long as it takes em to figure out a new game and the rest of us will be left with new rules that aren't likely to benefit us.

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glassman
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Even if we found a way around the fact that our economy dwarfs the world gold supply

you are looking at it upside down. the value of gold would fluctuate. gold is a good standard cuz we don't actaully *consume* much of it, and what is "used" is recoverable. Silver? we use alot of it and consume a good bit too, but once again we can recover most of it. if yo go back to the history books? you will find that we created the Federal reserve to stop all these "bubbles" event ho we didn't call them bubbles back then... we started using that term witht he internet as far as i know...

the underlying issue is really not gold or how much there is or isn't. the underlying issue is that Banks loan themselves money based on thin air. The collpase we just went thru was in large part caused by a new accoutning law requiring that banks *mark* their listed assets to their liquid market value, and stop assigning "best case scenario" values to them (fiction in other words) when they put them up as collateral for loans that they more or less give themselves, it's more complicated than that, but in the end? they really are kiting checks amongst each other until somebody fails to kite the next check and then the bubble bursts......

do you have a margin trading account? do you know who is actually lending you the money you use in margin? do yo know where they get the moeny to loan you? it's all thin air.... margin levels are one ot he best indicators as to when a bubble will burst, and i was watching them closely when i decided we were about to collpase. i beleive that's why they term bubble was invented, because it is just air in the "liquidity"

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CashCowMoo
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Times like these that make me wish Hillary would have won over Obama. She has far more experience and qualifications than Obama did and does.

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The Bigfoot
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oh, mark to market is bad mojo for sure, I don't disagree with you there. I just don't think 'fixing' the currency is the right fix for the problem. It limits so much when what is needed is just a return to historical cost accounting.


And no, I don't have a margin. When I started out I was tempted sorely because I wanted fast money. I lost that pot. Then I lost the second one. By the time I had my third pot ready I wasn't much tempted anymore. Now I can take sizable enough positions that I don't feel much need for margin.

As to thin air checks...that is what the Obama stress tests are for yes? To make sure financial institutions have enough withholding to cover their liabilities? Why "fix" something that is already being fixed without a massive change in monetary policy?

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buckstalker
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Already being fixed???

Please tell me you are joking BF....

If you ARE serious...

I've got some beautiful oceanfront property for sale here in Michigan you might be interested in.

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It's all in the timing...

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glassman
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big, we are watching the biggest bubble yet form in commodities-

it's not just oil either, it's agricutlral products too, i am dreading how this bubble bursts...
there's not going to be a bailout or a even a way to make bailout for this one.

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The Bigfoot
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What I have been saying is that 'WE' are creating these bubbles glass. The banks helped a whole lot on that last crash which is why they are being scrutinized on their assets/liabilities by federal watchdogs to make sure they don't overreach themselves again.

However, that doesn't stop bubbles when the market makes em. Nor will a gold standard. We the investing public are putting the money into the commodity market that is creating this bubble because we have seen how much can be made with oil bubbles, are tired of making 2% returns, and most still don't believe the stock market is safe enough.

To think that the commodity market is safer is ludicrous of course but that's the way of human mentality.

A Gold standard will not stop the harmful speculation of the marketplace. These commodity bubbles are being forced. Just like Enron was playing with California energy prices to create profits in 2000. Hedge funds are pushing any product they know are about to go into demand. It is looting the public and destabilizing the marketplace but linking the dollar to a piece of gold doesn't stop that. It just gives em one more thing to play with.

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glassman
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What I have been saying is that 'WE' are creating these bubbles glass. The banks helped a whole lot on that last crash which is why they are being scrutinized on their assets/liabilities by federal watchdogs to make sure they don't overreach themselves again.

first off? i don't agree that "consumers" create them. saying 'WE' could mean a broader term and if so, then that is true.

BUT, and this is a very important but. The bubbles are allowed to be created by the sheerers of the sheep. The whole policy of fiat money encourages it. Our revolution was fought on it, it is not a lesson we should be able to ignore.

FACT; we continue to create and deflate bubbles to accomodate whatever inconvenience we happen to be experiencing at any given moment. The real estate bubble was intentiaonlly created to fund the Iraq war and to stop the recession that should have been caused by 9-11. Instead, they hit the nitrous on the economic motor and blew the supercharger thru the hood, and the crank shaft out the oil pan.....

We don't "need" bubbles. The bankers and the brokers need them to pay their bonuses. Do you have any idea how much money they "skim" out of the soup each year? They have to replace that with value, and when they don't? They have to find a wya to recover that money so that nobody realises where it really went...

It's not the gold standard that is so important as havind some sort of real standard that is meaningful. The system we have now is actaully a dictatorship run by the Fed reserve. A secretive organisation that most people don't even know is not the Government.

If our currency was pegged to gold? China would pretty much be forced to stop manipulating their currency because of the pressure it would put on them to do so also. I beleive Americans can compete with anybody on a level playing feild.

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glassman
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as to the commodity bubble bursting? the ag markets are becoming too intertwined with the daily price of grains.

right now i know of at least two people locally that are assembling farm real estate packages as part of the new type hedge fund. The bonus for bringing in a new investor is 5-10% depending on how much [Wink]

the manager of the fund then proceeds to put the farm up as colateral to trade the products of the farm. corn cotton soy....

corn and soy are 90% of the animal feed we use in the US.. chicken pork and then beef FINISHING... (obviously beefs eat grass for a long time first [Smile] )

as long as the market stays high? and as long as the margin rates are low? this will be a good money maker..... but what happens when farm land in hectare amounts ends up on the table? these guys are assembling the packages in 50 million dollar increments and up.. this is the same thing that they were doing with the mortgages, but the trading (skim) was in the CDSes, not grain...

i would not bring a customer to these people for 50 grand, i don't trust them as far as i can throw them...

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Pagan
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
as to the commodity bubble bursting? the ag markets are becoming too intertwined with the daily price of grains.

right now i know of at least two people locally that are assembling farm real estate packages as part of the new type hedge fund. The bonus for bringing in a new investor is 5-10% depending on how much [Wink]

the manager of the fund then proceeds to put the farm up as colateral to trade the products of the farm. corn cotton soy....

corn and soy are 90% of the animal feed we use in the US.. chicken pork and then beef FINISHING... (obviously beefs eat grass for a long time first [Smile] )

as long as the market stays high? and as long as the margin rates are low? this will be a good money maker..... but what happens when farm land in hectare amounts ends up on the table? these guys are assembling the packages in 50 million dollar increments and up.. this is the same thing that they were doing with the mortgages, but the trading (skim) was in the CDSes, not grain...

i would not bring a customer to these people for 50 grand, i don't trust them as far as i can throw them...

I don't see an Ag commodity bubble. I think you have a myopic view on the issue due to your wife's vocation. I see you mentioned a few staple items, but that is it. I see no mentions of oranges. I see no mention of Minks(did ya know mink pelts are an Ag commodity?). I see no mention of all the other things that make up Ag commodities. You can't just pick out grain and cotton and predict doom. Ag commodities are extensive. Maybe one will have an issue...but not the entire Ag commodity market IMO. [Wink]

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glassman
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it's not my wifes work that leads me to this conclusion. I live in the middle of several million acres in crop, everyone here is tied to it one way or another....

oil is alos a commodity, and there is 4 million barrel per day market glut, yet the price is being held up by fear...

the key players in creating that fear also happen to be producers.


there is most definitley a corn and cotton price bubble.. watch what happens when the aclohol subsidies die out... [Wink]

i just pointed out the newest hedge scheme is all, and yes it is a scaheme

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Pagan
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
it's not my wifes work that leads me to this conclusion. I live in the middle of several million acres in crop, everyone here is tied to it one way or another....

oil is alos a commodity, and there is 4 million barrel per day market glut, yet the price is being held up by fear...

the key players in creating that fear also happen to be producers.


there is most definitley a corn and cotton price bubble.. watch what happens when the aclohol subsidies die out... [Wink]

i just pointed out the newest hedge scheme is all, and yes it is a scaheme

I also live in an Ag state..and your doom prediction is crap. Honestly....I follow it closely in my state. Ya better hit your Wiki before you spout that stuff. [Big Grin]

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glassman
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i recall the real estate people swearing the same thing right until it happened pagan.

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Pagan
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
i recall the real estate people swearing the same thing right until it happened pagan.

Sounds like you are postulating as usual. Provide some info this time please.

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glassman
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wiki doesn't cover this [Big Grin] i am too busy with my other work to prepare you a free report.

I am postualting as usual, i've never done anything but postualte here and you know that...

i'm not making it up outa thin air either tho... oil production is as high or higher right now than it has ever been, gasoline is too, but demand is down,

here, this is concise as i can find on moments notice, and it ain't wiki:

PETROLEUM SUPPLY

Domestic crude oil production rose by 3.8 percent to average 5.7 million barrels per day in January. This level was at an eight-year high for the month. Alaskan production was up by 34 percent from last January, at 624 thousand barrels per day. North Dakota, the center of recently discovered tight-oil formations, produced near-record levels of crude oil for the State at 470 thousand barrels per day. The number of oil and gas rig counts remained flat from December 2011 levels, according to the latest reports from Baker-Hughes Inc. Imports of crude oil and refined products fell in January by 14 percent to average 10.1 million barrels per day as increased domestic production offset the lower import levels. Canadian crude imports dropped by 2.8 percent in January to average 2.1 million barrels per day. Crude oil imports fell to a 12-year low with the exception of January 2010 and refined product imports fell to a 17-year low for the month of January.

Despite the recent announcements on declines in refinery capacity due to closures in the Northeast region, January's total refinery inputs were higher than last year's levels by 1.9 percent. With the exception of residual fuel production, industry production of key refined products remained higher than the prior year levels. Gasoline production at 8.9 million barrels per day was at a record-high for the month of January. Distillate fuel production at 4.6 million barrels per day was at a record-high for any January. Utilization rates were up by 0.9 percent in January this year compared with last year.

In January, crude oil stocks were down 3.2 percent from last year but slightly up from December 2011 levels. At 336.2 million barrels, crude oil stocks were at a four-year low for January. Gasoline stocks were up from month-ago and year-ago levels. At 227.6 million barrels, gasoline stocks were at a three-year high for January. Distillate fuel inventories were down from month-ago and year-ago levels and reached three-year lows in January, at 144.1 million barrels


https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/us-api-text-consumer-gasoline-dema nd-remains-weak?q=content/us-api-text-consumer-gasoline-demand-remains-weak

all that equals bubble.

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glassman
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keep in mind that bubbles happen when technicals and fundamnetals are grossly out of alignment and too many people borrow to play...

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glassman
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Obama should like that rpeort BTW, aren't the Faux News peopel cosntantly screaming that he has hurt doemstic production ? [Big Grin]

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Pagan
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How about you prove the Ag bubble you were claiming. Why did you jump to petroleum and such? Do you consider that Ag? C'mon...back up that postulation..or give it up. There is NO Ag bubble.

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It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious.

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by Pagan:
How about you prove the Ag bubble you were claiming. Why did you jump to petroleum and such? Do you consider that Ag? C'mon...back up that postulation..or give it up. There is NO Ag bubble.

the alcohol tax subsidies are over as of last year. it won't be long before that begins to hit the markets at the end of this year. we are and have been feeding our food to our cars, this is mandated by law, the BTU costs of oil versus ethanol fluctuate with price too but the numbers stay the same on power

The energy of ethanol relative to gasoline
A. 76,000 = BTU of energy in a gallon of ethanol
B. 116,090 = BTU of energy in a gallon of gasoline
C. .655 = 2/3 = GGE of energy in a gallon of ethanol. A / B. (GGE =energy in a gal. of gas)
D. 1.53 = Gallons of ethanol with the energy of 1 gallon of gasoline. D = B / A.


soon people will realise that celluslosic ethanol is not getting the attention it should have gotten and was expected to, and begin demanding that ethanol be removed.

the bubble is that our cars are competing with people, hogs and chicken and finishing beefs for "food"

when the corn subsidies were "on", the cotton growere switched to corn, and cotton went up and stayed up ... i do know that the seed co's have pretty good control on how much land gets planted in what, and that Monsanto has got a very tight grip on the seed market now primarily due to really good ttransgenic seed products.

i brought the grains up because i know the background of the people that are setting up these hedge funds based in farmland, but designed to give the managers the ability trade their "product" many thousands of times before it hits market. I've seen their pitch and i know what they are up to, and it will be spooky, if they keep growing like they are now

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glassman
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OK, Pagan i had a little time to check up on corn prices, they are down a little from the last time i looked

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/M

they are still above the prices they should be, and we are waiting to see if the ethaol producers are going to cut production to run their prices up or they will just absorb the tax credit losses...

so, i'll walk back my statemtn that we are in a big bubble at this exact moment, however, i am still convinced we are in a bubble, but it's not as big as i thought it was. I've been too busy to look the daily prices up and what i have noticed is that grocery prices have not come down at all since corn backed off some.. they should be under 5$ without the bubble...

i listen to the geezers here talk chit about their business, and they are real happy for 5$ i hadn't realised it got back down to about 6.50....


uly 2012 Corn Futures (as of 2/16/12)




There is a 10% chance that the price will be higher than $7.94 and a 10% chance that the price will be less than or equal to $5.05. This indicates that there is an 80% probability that the price will fall between these two prices. There is a 50% chance the price will be less than or equal to (or greater than) $6.33.


https://www.msu.edu/~hilker/crnfut.htm

those would be some huge price swings, but we've seen a couple that big in the last four years

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CashCowMoo
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Just left my caucus site, great day of politics! Speeches, free shirts and goodies. Cast my vote for Romney.

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glassman
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Faux news reports that Santorum won KS by alot....

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CashCowMoo
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Yup, im not surprised. I wonder how far this race is going to go. If Newt left, they would go for Rick. If Paul left, they may just go for Romney. Still would be pretty close between Romney and Santorum. Looks like a lot of money is about to be spent.

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buckstalker
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quote:
Originally posted by CashCowMoo:
Just left my caucus site, great day of politics! Speeches, free shirts and goodies. Cast my vote for Romney.

So....you hate Obama and voted for Romney huh?

You really don't have a lick of sense CCM

Go back and read your first post...

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