posted
I am a relatively new investor.....actually you can't really call what I am doing investing, but anyway heard about the Hindenburg Omen in the NEWS and did a little light reading.
I follow most of the threads on this board and from time to time comment......but I have noticed that there are some pretty sharp folks here with some strong opinions......
I was wondering what some of the brains thought about this indicator.
-------------------- "The greatest argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter." (WC) Posts: 386 | From: Georgia | Registered: May 2009
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posted
I tend not to trust indicators I know little to nothing about. But from what I understand this indicator is measuring the focus of the market for lack of a better explanation. When the market gets frantic and tries to go in every direction at once it means a drop is coming.. That's basically what I get from it.
From the activity I'm seeing I would have to agree, at least on face value.
A far more understood and trusted indicator would be the head and shoulders forming on the monthly DOW chart... 2000 here we come.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
When the economy is getting worse, when the administration claimed we are in a summer of recovery, and the numbers that come out are worse than what they claimed they would be if we spent trillions, then is that still Bush's fault?
Some of you forget that Dems took control of congress under Bush, are you going to hold the dems accountable at all during those years?
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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quote:Originally posted by CashCowMoo: When the economy is getting worse, when the administration claimed we are in a summer of recovery, and the numbers that come out are worse than what they claimed they would be if we spent trillions, then is that still Bush's fault?
Some of you forget that Dems took control of congress under Bush, are you going to hold the dems accountable at all during those years?
do you think the economy would be be better or worse without stimulus...
it's not hard to figger out that we didn't spend enough on the stimulus if you want a huge immediate growth spurt......
the problem is that those are how we got into this mess...
all the jobs lost? they are in China... that's not one specific politicians fault, it's all of 'em adn Obama does not seem able or willing to do what needs to be done about that...
actually? i haven't heard one single mainstream politician stand up and say what needs to be done... 50% minimum import tarriffs across the board on Chinese goods; thats minimum and we need to have higher duties on some items....
they don't import enough of our goods and services to make that painful for our economy... there would be a few co's that would suffer...
Table 2: Top US Exports to China 2009 ($ billion) *Calculated by USCBC Source: US International Trade Commission HS# Commodity description Volume % change over 2008 85 Electrical machinery and equipment 9.5 -16.8 12 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits 9.3 26.5 84 Power generation equipment 8.4 -13.8 88 Air and spacecraft 5.3 4.5 39 Plastics and articles thereof 4.4 14.1 90 Optics and medical equipment 4.0 6.0 72, 73 Iron and steel *3.5 *6.9 47 Pulp and paperboard 2.5 9.4 29 Organic chemicals 2.4 15.1 87 Vehicles, excluding railway 1.9 2.3
Table 3: Top US Imports from China 2009 ($ billion) *Calculated by USCBC Source: US International Trade Commission HS# Commodity description Volume % change over 2008 85 Electrical machinery and equipment 72.9 -9.2 84 Power generation equipment 62.4 -4.2 61, 62 Apparel *24.3 *1.5 95 Toys and games 23.2 -14.6 94 Furniture 16.0 -17.4 72, 73 Iron and steel *8.0 *45.9 64 Footwear and parts thereof 13.3 -7.9 39 Plastics and articles thereof 8.0 -10.1 42 Leather and travel goods 6.0 -18.9 90 Optics and medical equipment 5.6 -9.4
China is now becoming a bigger consumer of autos than the US.. how many US made autos and auto parts do you think they'll buy from US almost none...
IF we do a double dip recession? it will be the fault of American Business for not supporting America, not the Govt. It was also not the Govt's fault we got into this recession, other than the fact that they refused to regulate a 50 trillion dollar derivatives market... that represents 5 years of GDP....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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If I was China I wouldnt want to buy U.S. autos either.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
Don't know much about the Omen but I will say my opinion.
Record earnings for financial industries and overlarge industries is first stage recovery stuff. Until they are comfy with their black ink second stage recovery doesn't begin.
We are not to the point where we should be expecting a DOW over 10,000 to hold.
I don't expect a double dip though I do expect a lull which some may try to call a double dip.
DOW 7,500-11,000 range for the next foreseeable future.
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Glass, Pull up the hundred year chart of the Dow.. 9000 - 11,000 for the next year or so is the second shoulder.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
It's always a guessing game untill the formation is complete. One of the things I've found is the accuracy or the perfection of the formation is a huge indicator of the result of the pattern. I've seen people call out an ascending triangle on a stock or a forex pair, and yes one could draw the trend lines to make a triangle.. But the swings in that triangle were erratic of malformed.. The result in those cases was always the opposite of the perceived indication.
quote:If only charting were 100% accurate, and not the result of something happening in the real world...
That's the very reason they are so accurate. Patterns are indications of market overtones.. Emotion.
In this case the Head and shoulders is remarkably well formed.. It is as close to a perfect formation as I've seen. We are about half way or two thirds through the second shoulder, which means the bottom can drop out at any moment.
Posts: 2965 | Registered: Aug 2005
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