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Author Topic: odds of an airstrike on Iran
glassman
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are going up fast.

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raybond
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I would hate to see that,I am afraid you are right and this time we may be putting both our feet in the fire. The war in the middle east just may spread and include Iran where are the 300,000 troops we would need come from not volunteers I can tell you that.


It all remains to be seen

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The Bigfoot
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Hate to say it but I think if the UN is serious about regulating and reducing nuclear proliferation then an airstrike has to be done. Too many nations have snuck into the lists of nuclear weapons holders (India, Pakistan, Israel). Now North Korea and Iran aren't even trying sneaking around...just lying through their teeth while they proceed in plain sight.

As much as I don't encourage further destabilization of the area some nation will have to face real repercussions at some point for violating the UN anti-proliferation agreement. I'd prefer it to be North Korea to not fan the flames of the war further but if N.K. were to retaliate on S.K. the world could get very ugly very quickly. Striking Iran is probably the more logical choice.

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Relentless.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy4difUazd0
After watching that video.. I can say the odds are 100% we will see Iran attacked.

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glassman
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i beleive the strike would be at Qom which is of course a Holy City and has been settled since the 5th century BC.

i also beleive placement of the enrichment sight was specific so that it would be bad public relations for anybody who hit it...

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Relentless.
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Good point.

Are we placing bets as to whether or not Iran is actually building nukes?

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T e x
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quote:
Originally posted by Relentless.:
Good point.

Are we placing bets as to whether or not Iran is actually building nukes?

If they're not? what *are* they doing?

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Relentless.
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What they've said?
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T e x
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goofy stuff

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
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raybond
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As to what I have heard on the news last night our intelligence agrees with the British and french that there is nukes. This a very serious problem since we are dealing with very crazy people. The Iranian goverment has actually said the want to use them Russia backs Iran even if they say they want to find a solution don't we all I am afraid that the only smart way out of this is diplomacy but you are dealing with people who's Government is insane military seems to be the only option so the quicker the better. Let the chips fall and if it comes to war and we need a call up some of the people that talked so loud will have a chance of putting there money where there mouth is.

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Relentless.
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When did Iran say it wanted to use nukes?
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T e x
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Who knows what Iran is saying?

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
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Relentless.
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Apparently Ray here does.
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raybond
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Its been all over the news and talk shows just google it if you are interestedIf you really want a war you might just get one soon

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raybond
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For a decade no Iranian official of significance dared utter the words that Iran's new hard-line president said Wednesday. But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told an audience in Teheran that "Israel must be wiped off the map" and threatened Muslim countries that recognized Israel.


Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Photo: AP [file]

SLIDESHOW: Israel & Region | World Iran's president did not stop there, continuing his vitriol during a speech at a conference called "A World Without Zionism." Ahmadinejad told the audience that the "new wave" of Palestinian attacks would destroy Israel, that Muslim countries that made peace with Israel would "burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury" and that a world without the US and Israel would be possible, reported the Iranian government news agency, IRNA.

Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres called for Israel to work to get Iran kicked out of the United Nations, saying Ahmadinejad's comments represented a "crime against humanity."

"The president of Iran's call is even more grave in light of Iran's attempts to develop nuclear weapons and acquire long range missiles," Peres wrote in a letter to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

"Israel should immediately turn to the general-secretary of the UN and to the Security Council with an unequivocal demand to distance Iran from the UN."

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said the comments only served to underline the need to send the file on Iran's nuclear development to the UN Security Council for the imposition of sanctions.



"This is not the first time they said they want to destroy the state of Israel," Shalom said. "Former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said the same thing not long ago when he said that one missile from Iran to Israel could destroy the Jewish state. We should know that this type of regime is a very extreme one. We believe that the time has come to move Iran to the [UN] Security Council, and the sooner the better."

Ahmadinejad's comments brought immediate condemnations from Western countries, including France and Germany who, with Britain, are involved in key negotiations with Teheran over its controversial nuclear program.

However, the countries stood firm on denouncing the president's words.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said, "If these comments were indeed made, they are unacceptable. "

The German Foreign Ministry was also concerned. Spokesman Walter Lindner said the comments were "completely unacceptable and to be condemned in the sharpest terms."

The White House also said that the Iranian president's words underlined US concerns about Teheran's nuclear ambitions.

"It just reconfirms what we have been saying about the regime in Iran. It underscores the concerns we have about Iran's nuclear operations," spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters.

Ahmadinejad speech had been directed to an audience of Palestinian militant groups residing in Teheran, members of the Society to Defend the Palestinian Nation as well as the Pupils Islamic Association.

His speech included a claim that Israel's establishment was a conspiracy and he warned other countries against making peace with it.

"Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury [while] any [Islamic leader] who recognizes the Zionist regime means he is acknowledging the surrender and defeat of the Islamic world," he said. He also called the recent pullout from Gaza a "trick" to get Islamic states to recognize Israel.

"The Palestinian issue would end when a government belonging to the Palestinian people takes over, the homeless return home and a free election is held to form a government representing all people," Ahmadinejad added.

Herb Keinon and AP contributed to this report.

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raybond
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Israeli responses to the speech
The day immediately following Ahmadinejad's statements, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called for Iran to be expelled from the United Nations and Israel's Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. In that meeting, all fifteen members condemned Ahmadinejad's remarks.

On May 8 2006, Israel's Second Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres said in an interview with Reuters that "the president of Iran should remember that Iran can also be wiped off the map," Army Radio reported.[45] In 1981, Israeli fighter jets bombed Osirak, Iraq’s nuclear reactor, severely damaging that country's nuclear weapons program. Today, however, experts state that a similar attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is unlikely, given that Iran's nuclear program is spread out across numerous locations, including some sites that are buried deep enough underground that they are thought to be safe from aerial strikes.[46] According to ABC News, "Israel is within range of Iran's ballistic missiles but Israel is believed to possess the only nuclear arsenal in the Middle East."[47][48] Peres, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, drew unusually stiff criticism from an analyst on Israel's state television, Yoav Limor, for talking of destroying another country. "There is a broad consensus that it would have been better if Peres had not said this, especially now," Limor said. "I'm quite sure Israel does not want to find itself in the same insane asylum as (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad."[49]

Ahmadinejad's remark found support among Anti-Zionism Jewish groups. A spokesperson for one such organisation argued a distinction, saying Iran's leader had not called for the elimination of Jews but rather the illegal and illegitimate Zionist movement.[50]

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Relentless.
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I'm sorry.. I should have been more specific.

When did Iran say they wanted to use nukes on anyone?

Saying that Israel is headed to destruction doesn't necessarily implicate Iran.
It's like me saying that if you don't turn around you'll be flattened to a grease spot...
Now you could take that as a threat.. or you could look forward and see a cliff.

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Pagan
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How about the Iranian leader making a direct threat? Would that appease you? Such as the following maybe? IMO, his words are a direct threat. His words can't be much clearer.

Iran's new president created a sense of outrage in the west yesterday by describing Israel as a "disgraceful blot" that should be "wiped off the face of the earth". Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is more hardline than his predecessor, told students in Tehran that a new wave of Palestinian attacks would be enough to finish off Israel.
The populist leader's comments, reported by the state-run media, come at a time when Tehran is under pressure over its suspect nuclear weapons ambitions and alleged involvement in attacks on British troops in Iraq.

He said: "Anybody who recognises Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury, [while] any [Islamic leader] who recognises the Zionist regime means he is acknowledging the surrender and defeat of the Islamic world." He was addressing a conference titled The World Without Zionism.


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Relentless.
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I'm sorry.. I should have been more specific.

When did Iran say they wanted to use nukes on anyone?

Saying that Israel is headed to destruction doesn't necessarily implicate Iran.
It's like me saying that if you don't turn around you'll be flattened to a grease spot...
Now you could take that as a threat.. or you could look forward and see a cliff.

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Pagan
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quote:
Originally posted by Relentless.:
I'm sorry.. I should have been more specific.

When did Iran say they wanted to use nukes on anyone?

Saying that Israel is headed to destruction doesn't necessarily implicate Iran.
It's like me saying that if you don't turn around you'll be flattened to a grease spot...
Now you could take that as a threat.. or you could look forward and see a cliff.

He said: "Anybody who recognises Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury"

Sounds like a nuke threat IMO.

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Relentless.
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Iran just said it would open the second site to inspectors...
So what happens when we bomb this nation back to the stone age and the occupy them for decades... and don't find a nuke weapons initiative?
We simply say.. oops.. Like we did in Iraq?

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raybond
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I happen to agree with you relentless if the ruling elite want what the Iranians have it is just oops and that will be all that is said

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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by Relentless.:
Iran just said it would open the second site to inspectors...
So what happens when we bomb this nation back to the stone age and the occupy them for decades... and don't find a nuke weapons initiative?
We simply say.. oops.. Like we did in Iraq?

i don't envision anything like the Iraq war.

i also don't envision bombing anybody back to the stone-age.

i think we saw after their last elections that the Iranian ruling elite do not have their power fully consolidated, and an invasion would be a mistake.

Rummsfeld encouraged Iraq to attack Iran after the Iranian revolution and that has been shown (now) to have been a mistake too..

instead of destabilising the newly formed Revolutionary govt? the Iraq attack created an atmosphere there similar to what 9-11 did here, and gave the Revolutionary govt something to rally the people 'round....

surgical strikes in nuclear facilities would be most likely.

Iran did it to Iraq in 1980, a year before the Israelis did it...

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T e x
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quote:
Possibility of a Nuclear-Armed Iran Alarms Arabs
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN
Published: September 30, 2009

CAIRO — As the West raises the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, Arab governments, especially the small, oil-rich nations in the Persian Gulf, are growing increasingly anxious. But they are concerned not only with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran but also with the more immediate threat that Iran will destabilize the region if the West presses too hard, according to diplomats, regional analysts and former government officials.

On Thursday, Iran will meet with six world powers to discuss a variety of issues in what will be the first direct talks between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Iran would appear to enter the discussions weakened by a bitter political dispute at home and by the recent revelation of a second, secret, nuclear enrichment plant being built near Qum.

But instead of showing contrition, Iran test-fired missiles — an example of the kind of behavior that has caused apprehension among some of its Arab neighbors. The cause and effect of conflict between Iran and the West is never experienced in Washington or London but instead plays out here, in the Middle East, where Iran has committed allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

“If the West puts pressure on Iran, regardless of the means of this pressure, additional pressure, increased pressure, do you think the Iranians will retaliate or stand idly by and wait for their fate to fall on their head?” said Ambassador Hossam Zaki, spokesman for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry. “The most likely answer is they will retaliate. Where do you think they will retaliate?”

Among Iran’s Persian Gulf neighbors there is growing resignation that Iran cannot be stopped from developing nuclear arms, though Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful uses. Some analysts have predicted that a regional arms race will begin and that vulnerable states, like Bahrain, may be encouraged to invite nuclear powers to place weapons on their territories as a deterrent. The United States already has a Navy base in Manama, Bahrain’s capital.

more here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/01/world/middleeast/01arabs.html?th&emc=th

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Adventures in microcapitalism...

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