posted
all of the Representatives are up for re-election this fall...
they are nervous...
i thinkthey'll pass something AND give US each a thousand$ to be delivered the day beofre the election, which will be hard todo, but they'll figure out a way...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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quote:i thinkthey'll pass something AND give US each a thousand$ to be delivered the day beofre the election, which will be hard todo, but they'll figure out a way...
Giving us each $1,000 is easy - just print it!!! Unfortunately, running the printing presses full speed also increases inflation as our currency is devalued.
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posted
I agree! Let it collapse! I am not at all convinced that a main street collapse is tied to the collapse of a few bad apples on Wall Street. Normal businesses can continue to operate (although usually not expand) without new loans.
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: Why make the statement of it was a republican idea. It has no bearing on the subject, it just causes division on both sides. Looks to me that our leadership on both sides of the spectrum are selling us down a dangerous fork in the road.
it's echoes Lock...
4 years ago when i, as republican, began trying to tell other members of my party how bad dubya is? i got alot of heat...
do you remeber the GOP convention in NYC? they wore red white and blue bandaids on their faces to make fun of Kerry...
heck we had one female poster here come on the day after the election and tell me NAH NAH NAH...
needless to say? most of those people don't post here anymore... i think they are embarrassed..
Some of "us" still post Glass, pride be damned... I voted for Dubya twice, and I regret it. I believe I gave you some heat back in the day, so if I haven't said so already, sorry bout that... FWIW...
NR.
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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posted
Some of "us" still post Glass, pride be damned... I voted for Dubya twice, and I regret it. I believe I gave you some heat back in the day, so if I haven't said so already, sorry bout that... FWIW...
NR.
no need to apologise...
that's politics... i never took any of it personallly... and i was only offering MY opinions...
we need at least two parties to keep each other honest... and they aren't doing a very good job of that are they?
so in that one sense i often feel like we only have one party even tho there are some huge differences between the two
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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posted
What pisses me off is that stupid stimulus package the first part of the year... then they plan to take that back about four fold the first of next year! That's what I was saying back then, put that little cookie back in the jar, and try not to let our country's finances crumble.
WE USED TO BE IN THE BLACK! What have they done?
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posted
Glass, I was both passionate and misguided about politics back then, and I'd like to think that since then I have become less of the latter, (though I admit my passion for politics has faded some, replaced by another passion).
As far as parties? I agree, you need two minimum, but three IMO would be much more ideal. Often times with two parties it seems like you end up with each representing an opposite extreme on the political spectrum, with "the guy in the middle" no choice but the lesser of two evils.
As far as the Dems and Reps being honest? I think we both would agree they are crooked. While they might spout political jargon that is on opposite ends of the spectrum, they are both working to screw the rest of us out of our hard earned money, AKA our lives.
JMO, anyway....
Highwaychild, The stimulus package was an easy sell... I mean, cmon, who is gonna say no to "free money"!!
-------------------- One is never completely useless. One can always serve as a bad example.
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quote:I didn't see... did you ever get a reply from your F'n Congressman? If so, what'd he/she say?
Yes, I did get a response, both on the phone and via e-mail. Zach Space (D-Oh) said that he is furious about the bailout, but that something may need to be done (in other words, he just copied and pasted Nancy Pelosi's talking points). Sherrod Brown (D-OH) doesn't want to bail out Wall Street but feels that something must be done to prevent a collapse (more Nancy Pelosi talking points). George Voinovich (R-OH) is looking at the bill and listening to his constituents. He's a WEASEL and a DISGRACE that won't take a side and I ALWAYS VOTE AGAINST HIM!!!
However, even though I'm not happy with the response from my congressmen, IT IS WORKING. I've heard from congressmen on TV that they are receiving angry phone calls on the order of 300 to 1 AGAINST THE BAILOUT! These slimy politians want to be re-elected and voting against their constituents is not conducive to self-preservation.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: To be honest, both parties need to be completely revamped. They are but mere ghost's of what was intended by our fore fathers imo. It's friggin disgusting.
yeah, but people within each party have to step up and whip their OWN people into line instead of blaming the other guys...
i can't beleive that while the debt was being racked up? we were arguing over a dying girl in Fla....
that was about as immature a thing as i can imagine our Congress doing...
Did you forget about steroids in baseball? Now that was really time well spent.
The biggest problem I see is that the government has become reactive to situations and then only provide short term solutions. They need to be proactive and spend their time solving problems at an early stage instead of waiting for the crisis to occur.
The only good that could possibly come of this is if enough politicians from both sides broke away from their parties and formed a 3rd party. Something more moderate that will keep the far left and right in check.
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posted
A 3rd party can happen if there is a strong enough issue that sweeps the country. It took slavery to form the last 3rd party the republicans and a civil war after they got into the office of the president. So it is very possible
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quote:Originally posted by Lockman: I guess the Republican party should no longer exist and we can go to a one party system.
We can call it Democan.
today both parties approved this bailout, so when it doesn't solve all the problems can we say it was a bipartisan blunder?
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To clarify: I was saying yes to the bipartisan blunder. I don't care if the Repub's exist or not. There will always be a conservative party of some type. I just want them to get back to their fiscal base and stop trying to "moralize" the nation.
And PM, I am with you. I have made it as clear as I can to both my senators and my congresswoman that their jobs are on the line here as far as I am concerned.
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.
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WASHINGTON -- Inside the U S Federal Reserve headquarters, a small team is testing a forecasting program that does the work of hundreds of economists. Never before has the Fed been able to crunch in real time such a large mountain of data -- as many as 150 indicators -- to divine where the economy is headed.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is pushing the "factor model" program -- so named because it reduces everything from home sales to mining capacity into a few weighted averages for making predictions. The Fed could use the help: Its gross domestic product forecasts, which influence its interest rate decisions, have missed the mark by an average of 1 percentage point since 2000.
"It's a powerful tool that can potentially improve the Fed's forecasts," said Richard Clarida, a global strategic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co. and Columbia University economist who developed a factor model as an assistant treasury secretary in 2001. "Forecasting, especially in real time, is a challenge, and these programs are not swayed by the emotions or the conventional wisdom of the moment."
Bernanke called the models "especially promising" in a speech in 2004. He should know. In 2000, as an economist at Princeton University, Bernanke created one that examined 78 economic indicators. He found that its short-term inflation and unemployment predictions were about as accurate as those produced by some 200 economists at the Fed, according to his published paper.
posted
one thing that i "picked up" tonight listening to the after debate spintalk PM...
IF they don't do a bailout? or the House GOP's block a bailout? they will lose the over 55 vote, heres' why:
average people nearing retirement are much more concerned that their retirement savings/investments will disappear, they aren't traders, they are just people who contributed to their 401K their whole lives and they see the money disappearing, and they don't have ten-15 years to "get it back"...
if there's no bailout? the market will lose "trust" and drop severely (at best) simply because of the "psychotic" behaviour of the market..
regardless of whether a bailout was really needed or not, the market will react now that everybody has said one is needed...
even tho they are getting lots of calls to not do it? the House GOP are damned if they do and damned of they don't...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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posted
I think this is all because of the FREE TRADE agreement with all the countries. Thanks BUSH!!
Think about it....all these companies outsourced SOOOOO MANY JOBS over seas. Less jobs here means more foreclosures, higher inflation, poor get poorer, more chapter 7/11/13. Not to mention Consumer concerns.
No what happens if they get rid of FREE TRADE??? I think it will kill some companies completely and create jobs here again. It will be a gradual effect on the economy but positive in the long run. Jobs will slowly start coming back. Sure inflation will go up for a few years but would decrease over say 5-10 years. Foreclosures will decrease, the poor will start not being poor or as poor.
A college degree of any sort don't mean a whole lot in my view unless your in Medical. Every sector is getting beat up dramatically.
So they raise the mininum wage....so what??? Did I or you get a raise....nope! Unless your at Minimum wage. I haven't had a raise for 2-3 years and I work at Chrysler. Everyone wants more and more cuts....because of a bad economy. Job cuts only makes the economy worse.
The MSNBC CLOWNS keep bring up how everyone still has the STIMULIS CHECKS in their accounts. Sorry, mine was spent the same month. I highly doubt that more then 10% of the people have saved theirs or did it even make a dent. I think a check of $5,000 would make a dent and help but its only short term.
posted
Well.. you work at Chrysler.. and except for the Viper.. Chrysler sucks.. they went the polar opposite of the market in terms of vehicles they designed. They went with heavy gas gulping adaptations of former muscle cars of days long since forgotten. They should have gone with fuel sipping nimble roadsters of this day instead. As far as "free Trade"? It is unavoidable no matter your desire to blame the other guy. We are humans living on a speck of dust... Not giants on the center of entirety.
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posted
I try to stay out of these discussions but what the heck I'll probably piss some people off with my opinion. Talking about trade and jobs sent overseas no one hear mentioned part of the problem. Partly IMO is union greed. When I was in college I worked summers in a paper mill I rememeber one night the guy I relieved coming up to me and saying he filed a grievence because neither of us were called in for overtime. The result was a free days pay for both him and me. So many union rules drive up the cost of production which in turn drives up the cost of goods. It's no wonder companies want to ship jobs overseas. Several years ago I came up with an idea for a product. I was firm in wanting it made in the US and for several years it was but the price kept rising to manufacture them and my profit was less than what it cost to manufacture. Most products have a target price to sell at, what the market will bear. You can have the best idea in the world but if you can only move your product for no more than 9 bucks and it costs $2.20 to manufacture then it doesn't work out. I know what your thinking ........ theres a seven dollar spread there that's a hell of a profit but it doesn't work that way. You have to add in shipping costs, discounts for distributors, your own shipping costs to get the product out. Distributors get an average of a 55 to 60 percent discount off the retail price plus free shipping. So your 9 dollar product now sells to a distributor for anywhere from $3.60 to $4.05 less manufacturing costs of $2.20 less whatever your shipping charges are. Not much profit there is there. It was a tough decision but the only sensible thing was to have them made in China for considerably less .88 to be exact. What my point is, is that even if you want to have something made here in the US unless you have millions of dollars to invest for a lower price you can't afford to do it. Manufacturing is just to expensive for a small company. Your actually pushed into sending jobs overseas or fold your company it's that simple. I was always pro american for products but I have a much better view now of why you can't find anything made in the US anymore. It's not just politicians that did this to this country. It's unions, corporate greed, and our demand for lower prices on goods. We did this to ourselves so there really is no need to complain.
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posted
JGRE, i am quite familiar with all of the value added problems in pricing, and yes there's been plenty of union mistakes, and management mistakes.
but the reason you ended up having to go to China was because you are competing against Chinese made already.
the market couldn't bear more because people have developed lower expectations of quality.
import duties should have been applied from the very beginning and only lowered as the Chinese economy came to our level.
to suddenly impose huge import duties now would be detrimental too...
but the fact is the Chinese peoples economy is completely controlled by their govt. and the govt specifically manipulates it to keep labor cheap. cheap labor means no jobs here, and if we do not seriously address this issue now? the recent credit crisis is only the beginning.
just baling out Wall St will not fix the underlying problem... we are broke...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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"import duties should have been applied from the very beginning and only lowered as the Chinese economy came to our level."
"just baling out Wall St will not fix the underlying problem... we are broke..."
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As long as they are meeting this weekend might as well throw those into the discussion and a few other things they can take care of while they are okaying the bailout.
posted
I would think that if the government steps in they are going to sell off a lot of their assets to pay back this loan.
There has to be a ton of money in reserve for all their insurance claims which are suppose to be reserved with the worst case scenario in mind.
This part of there business is overseen by the dept of insurance which again is suppose to make sure that they are constantly updating those reserves.
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posted
i think we can assume that the insurance (CDS'es) were all sold back and forth amongst one another and there isn't anything in reserve backing them up...
that's the real crime.. they looked at the derivatives as trading vehicles instead of insurace and it made them all co-dependent.. Japan has similar problems in their market too...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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"i think we can assume that the insurance (CDS'es) were all sold back and forth amongst one another and there isn't anything in reserve backing them up..."
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I assume you are saying the banks have used this money in a questionable manner?
From what i have read AIG's insurance business is suppose to be sound, which would mean the reserve is sound.
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"i think we can assume that the insurance (CDS'es) were all sold back and forth amongst one another and there isn't anything in reserve backing them up..."
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Although if this was true then i do not think we would have any choice but to bail them out because so many regular people would be at risk if they go under.
Lots of questions that i am not sure we will ever know the answers to.
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If the investment banks leveraged over 100 times (each) their capital, and sold it as bundled paper (CDO, CLO, SIV etc...)
WHERE is the money now? Money in the system DOESNT disappear, it may be transferred from bank to bank to bank, but it MUST go somewhere.
A. Bank loans money for a mortage to a person B. Person takes money and pays off existing loans, thus, money goes to Bank B C. Investment banks buy the mortgages from Banks A, B, and C, thus moving money to Banks A, B, and C D. Investment banks bundle up mortgages and sell them as Bonds (CLO, CDO, SIV), and receives money from bond purchasers
Wash, rinse, repeat
So WHY is there the farce of a liquidity crisis? There isnt. One step is missing of course.
Investment banks move ALL money offshore into Hedge Funds, thus removing cash from financial system. They still HAVE the money, but since hedge funds are NOT regulated, OR are required to file their assets with the FED or SEC, they can be completey out of the system.
Thus, Investment banks show liquidity problems on THEIR balance sheets, and come hat in hand for taxpayers... NOT to save them, but to give them ADDITIONAL free money.
The elite bankers win either way. If the govt DOESNT re-liquify them, they STILL control the assets of their offshore Hedge Funds, and lehman goes to bankruptcy (example), if the 700 billion dollar bailout occurs (Really 5 trillion), then they can move even MORE money offshore, and Paulson can say it wasnt enough and the credit markets are STILL frozen.
So... what has the investment bank Hedge funds been doing with this money?
Buying our infrastructure, commodities, water systems, etc...
The derivative numbers have been calculated at over 1 quadrillion dollars. But guess what?
61 billion dollars would pay for every mortgage owned by the public since 2004... the time frame that lenders opened up subprime lending.
Yet WHY do they need 700 billion? 61 billion would end foreclosures for Americans, and common logic says that money circulates in an economy, not disappears.
So you tell me... what smells rotten here in Denmark?"
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This quote and theory spells out pretty much what you are saying.
Back to the reserves, if these reserves are gone then our Gov. screw it up again.
Thus they will have to bail them out for 3 quick reasons.
1.There are so many regular people that will be hurt and people would no longer trust that if they pay for insurance that they will have protection.(not that feel great about it now but there is a big differance)
2. Government would be caught with there pants down in a hugh way since they are suppose to be protecting this part of insurance claims.
3. If they do not bail them out this problem would be exposed big time, where is if they do they can hide it a lot easier.
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for instance? if you go look up our REAL trade deficits? you can see where the cash is...
add them up year over year...
of course a few hedges cleaned out the brokers... that's kind of funny since the brokers extended so many special privileges to them and allowed them to clean out just about everybody else...
but like a zoo? then when the animals had nothing else to "eat"? they turned on their "keeper"
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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posted
What we need to do is start convincing our friends and neighbors to start thinking about "True Cost" economics. To insist on purchasing responsible products.
What grade material was used to create the item? Was it created in a responsible manner? What percentage of the cost of this product goes to labor/manufacturing/shipping? What type of pollution is created and how is it contained?
(Yes, I know it'll take an act of congress for most companies to volunteer this information but until we insist on this who knows what product Melamine will end up in next?)
Next we need to start buying responsibly ourselves. When our grandfather (maybe great-grandfather for the young) purchased a new kitchen table it was not some pre-fab thing from IKEA with a 5 year lifespan. It was meant to stay with the family for decades and then be handed down to the children.
That is the essence of the word "Reduce" within reduce/reuse/recycle. The least understood of the environmental motto. Choose products that have the least amount of impact on the world and on ourselves. Right now that would exclude nearly everything from China until they learn how to regulate their pollution (Course...in some industries the same can be said here.)
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues.
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posted
this is a pretty good article from last April... it was written just after Bear Sterns collapsed:
Credit default swaps are the most widely traded form of credit derivative. They are bets between two parties on whether or not a company will default on its bonds. In a typical default swap, the “protection buyer” gets a large payoff if the company defaults within a certain period of time, while the “protection seller” collects periodic payments for assuming the risk of default.
CDS thus resemble insurance policies,
but there is no requirement to actually hold any asset or suffer any loss,
so CDS are widely used just to speculate on market changes. In one ****ger's example, a hedge fund wanting to increase its profits could sit back and collect $320,000 a year in premiums just for selling “protection” on a risky BBB junk bond.
The premiums are “free” money - free until the bond actually goes into default, when the hedge fund could be on the hook for $100 million in claims. And there's the catch: what if the hedge fund doesn't have the $100 million? The fund's corporate shell or limited partnership is put into bankruptcy, but that hardly helps the “protection buyers” who thought they were covered.
Bear Stearns helped fuel the explosive growth in the credit derivative market, where banks, hedge funds and other investors have engaged in $45 trillion worth of bets on the credit-worthiness of companies and countries. Before it collapsed, Bear was the counterparty to $13 trillion in derivative trades. On March 14, 2008, Bear's ratings were downgraded by Moody's, a major rating agency; and on March 16, the brokerage was bought by JPMorgan for pennies on the dollar, a token buyout designed to avoid the legal complications of bankruptcy. The deal was backed by a $29 billion “non-recourse” loan from the Federal Reserve. “Non-recourse” meant that the Fed got only Bear's shaky paper assets as collateral. If those proved to be worthless, JPM was off the hook. It was an unprecedented move, of questionable legality; but it was said to be justified because, as one headline put it, “Fed's Rescue of Bear Halted Derivatives Chernobyl.” The notion either that Bear was “rescued” or that the Chernobyl was halted, however, was grossly misleading. The CEOs managed to salvage their enormous bonuses, but it was a “bailout” only for JPM and Bear's creditors.
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